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  • Re: Climate Change 2: Thank God for Global Warming

    As a thought experiment, what would happen if we simply outlawed fossil fuels, right now? For every kind of energy generation.

    About where would that send us back to, in terms of energy density / productivity? 1950? 1920? Let's further imagine there's no way around the law -- the Eschaton enforces it from afar with 100% efficiency, so there's zero black market.

    I know we can't predict technological innovation with any degree of certainty, but how soon would we return to current net energy generation and productivity? 20 years? 50? never (i.e., is it literally impossible to ever generate that amount of energy using nuclear and renewable given what we know about physics)?
    Cornell University
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    Comment


    • Re: Climate Change 2: Thank God for Global Warming

      Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
      Xcel Energy is looking to go 100% carbon-free by 2050. The first major US utility to do so.

      https://www.xcelenergy.com/carbon_free_2050

      They say they're going to do this by:
      They're destroying the coal industry. Trump better step up and save them.
      **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

      Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
      Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
        They're destroying the coal industry. Trump better step up and save them.
        Mandatory coal usage!

        Comment


        • Re: Climate Change 2: Thank God for Global Warming

          Originally posted by Kepler View Post
          As a thought experiment, what would happen if we simply outlawed fossil fuels, right now? For every kind of energy generation.

          About where would that send us back to, in terms of energy density / productivity? 1950? 1920? Let's further imagine there's no way around the law -- the Eschaton enforces it from afar with 100% efficiency, so there's zero black market.

          I know we can't predict technological innovation with any degree of certainty, but how soon would we return to current net energy generation and productivity? 20 years? 50? never (i.e., is it literally impossible to ever generate that amount of energy using nuclear and renewable given what we know about physics)?
          The following states are F-cked with a capital F even if we just ban coal:
          West Virginia
          Kentucky
          Wyoming


          These states are pretty seriously boned if we just banned coal:
          Utah
          Missouri
          Ohio
          Indiana
          Tennessee
          Wisconsin
          North Dakota
          Nebraska

          If we toss in natural gas and petroleum:
          Alaska
          Arizona
          Texas
          Iowa
          Arkansas
          Louisiana
          Oklahoma
          Kansas
          Alabama
          Mississippi
          Georgia
          Florida
          South Carolina
          Colorado
          North Carolina
          Michigan
          Pennsylvania
          Virginia
          Hawaii
          California
          Nevada
          New Mexico
          Minnesota
          Illinois
          New York
          Maryland
          All of New England except Vermont

          These states would limp by:
          South Dakota
          Montana
          Idaho

          These states would be mostly ok:
          Oregon
          Idaho

          These states wouldn't sneeze:
          Washington
          Vermont

          Based entirely on generation capacity. Not a perfect measure, but it works. I also created a Kepler's Proposal F-cked Factor by taking the green energy% minus the fossil fuel% and only six states were above 0%.

          WA 58%
          VT 54%
          ID 48%
          OR 40%
          SD 17%
          MT 5%
          ND -14%
          IA -20%

          Maine -22%
          CA -23%
          DC -30%
          KS -33%
          NV -38%
          NH -38%
          MN -39%
          OK -47%
          NM -47%
          CO -52%
          NC -53%
          NE -53%

          NY -54%
          AZ -55%
          TN -56%
          SC -57%

          IL -58%
          TX -59%
          AL -60%
          WY -62%
          AK -63%

          HI -64%
          PA -67%
          UT -67%
          CT -68%
          AR -70%
          NJ -70%
          MI -70%
          GA -71%
          MD -74%
          VA -76%
          MA -77%
          WI -77%
          MO -82%
          IN -83%
          WV -86%
          LA -87%

          OH -88%
          MS -88%
          FL -90%
          KY -90%

          RI -91%
          Delaware -98%
          Last edited by dxmnkd316; 02-05-2019, 04:16 PM.
          Code:
          As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
          College Hockey 6       College Football 0
          BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
          Originally posted by SanTropez
          May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
          Originally posted by bigblue_dl
          I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
          Originally posted by Kepler
          When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
          He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

          Comment


          • Re: Climate Change 2: Thank God for Global Warming

            Here's a cool site I've linked before:
            https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data...e=0&rse=0&pin=
            Code:
            As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
            College Hockey 6       College Football 0
            BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
            Originally posted by SanTropez
            May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
            Originally posted by bigblue_dl
            I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
            Originally posted by Kepler
            When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
            He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

            Comment


            • Re: Climate Change 2: Thank God for Global Warming

              I see some pretty economically important states more than 50% underwater.

              Comment


              • Re: Climate Change 2: Thank God for Global Warming

                Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                The following states are F-cked with a capital F even if we just ban coal:
                I don't care about states or countries -- those are 18th century atavisms. Let's assume we* get over the ape territorial stuff soon. I was thinking globally. How far back are we kicked and how long does it take us to recover?

                * To do this we may need to get rid of the apes. To every thing there is a season.
                Last edited by Kepler; 02-05-2019, 11:21 PM.
                Cornell University
                National Champion 1967, 1970
                ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                Comment


                • Re: Climate Change 2: Thank God for Global Warming

                  I think we’d see the following;

                  Mass starvation mostly in the developing world within two years. No cheap energy = no fertilizer
                  Instant loss of all mass communication until we get cheap flip phones. iPhones become painfully expensive to use. Riots in the streets by day three. We’ve already tested this theory.
                  Scientific research is stymied. Particle physics and anything high energy probably goes into a coma for years, maybe a decade.
                  Space exploration completely dies. No way we produce that much energy without petroleum.
                  I think we’d see a shift in the economic centers to places like Amsterdam and other places that rely on green energy for their current way of life.
                  Personal automobile transportation is almost certainly dead for at least 10+ years. Too much of the grid would need to be used to just run every day life. I’m not sure how mass transport would fare. Maybe ok. I’m guessing we divert as many resources to just producing food as we can. Certainly in the immediate term.

                  I think humans never fully recover. It’s like the Great Recession economic activity and pressure drop across a valve. There’s a permanent loss. We might get back to the state we were in but I would think it would be 40-50 years. Maybe 100. But that’s decades of research and development that’s just lost. Entire areas of R&D and science just die. Imagine if the Solvay Conference was blown up on day 1. Would we have discovered quantum mechanics? Maybe. No way to know. But if we did eventually get there, it would have probably taken another 30-70 years.

                  I’d love to think about this on a clear head.
                  Code:
                  As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                  College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                  BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                  Originally posted by SanTropez
                  May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                  Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                  I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                  Originally posted by Kepler
                  When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                  He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                  Comment


                  • Re: Climate Change 2: Thank God for Global Warming

                    Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                    I’m guessing we divert as many resources to just producing food as we can..
                    how does it get anywhere? stay 'fresh'? cow's farts and poos, are worse than coal so have to kill all them. peeps will have to grow their own potatoes and carrots and eat them raw to be neutral
                    a legend and an out of work bum look a lot alike, daddy.

                    Comment


                    • Re: Climate Change 2: Thank God for Global Warming

                      Originally posted by mookie1995 View Post
                      how does it get anywhere? stay 'fresh'? cow's farts and poos, are worse than coal so have to kill all them. peeps will have to grow their own potatoes and carrots and eat them raw to be neutral
                      No cows, no poop, no fertilizer, no peas and carrots

                      Maine has taken out dams for hydro and permitting is so hard they are left in disrepair. At one point Maine had a lot of their electrical generation due to hydro.
                      Last edited by walrus; 02-06-2019, 04:47 AM.
                      I swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell.

                      Maine Hockey Love it or Leave it

                      Comment


                      • Re: Climate Change 2: Thank God for Global Warming

                        Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                        I think we’d see the following;

                        Mass starvation mostly in the developing world within two years. No cheap energy = no fertilizer
                        Instant loss of all mass communication until we get cheap flip phones. iPhones become painfully expensive to use. Riots in the streets by day three. We’ve already tested this theory.
                        Scientific research is stymied. Particle physics and anything high energy probably goes into a coma for years, maybe a decade.
                        Space exploration completely dies. No way we produce that much energy without petroleum.
                        I think we’d see a shift in the economic centers to places like Amsterdam and other places that rely on green energy for their current way of life.
                        Personal automobile transportation is almost certainly dead for at least 10+ years. Too much of the grid would need to be used to just run every day life. I’m not sure how mass transport would fare. Maybe ok. I’m guessing we divert as many resources to just producing food as we can. Certainly in the immediate term.

                        I think humans never fully recover. It’s like the Great Recession economic activity and pressure drop across a valve. There’s a permanent loss. We might get back to the state we were in but I would think it would be 40-50 years. Maybe 100. But that’s decades of research and development that’s just lost. Entire areas of R&D and science just die. Imagine if the Solvay Conference was blown up on day 1. Would we have discovered quantum mechanics? Maybe. No way to know. But if we did eventually get there, it would have probably taken another 30-70 years.

                        I’d love to think about this on a clear head.
                        Two steps/one step theory. It would trigger a step back on the level of the fall of the Roman Empire. We'd all be living like North Koreans for several decades, at a minimum.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post
                          Two steps/one step theory. It would trigger a step back on the level of the fall of the Roman Empire. We'd all be living like North Koreans for several decades, at a minimum.
                          Mookie wants to be in the part that gets to pick a different noko hottie every night!!!
                          a legend and an out of work bum look a lot alike, daddy.

                          Comment


                          • Re: Climate Change 2: Thank God for Global Warming

                            So, the right wingers don't believe the science and actually think that "their" scientists number the same as the ones who believe in climate change. Pretty sure I heard it was like 98-2. Just talked to one. He also believes in tax cuts, etc.

                            So, there's two trump voters I just got done talking too. Wasted my time. It's amazing how they enjoy being in that 35%.

                            Intractable.
                            **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

                            Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
                            Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                              The following states are F-cked with a capital F even if we just ban coal:
                              West Virginia
                              Kentucky
                              Wyoming


                              These states are pretty seriously boned if we just banned coal:
                              Utah
                              Missouri
                              Ohio
                              Indiana
                              Tennessee
                              Wisconsin
                              North Dakota
                              Nebraska

                              If we toss in natural gas and petroleum:
                              Alaska
                              Arizona
                              Texas
                              Iowa
                              Arkansas
                              Louisiana
                              Oklahoma
                              Kansas
                              Alabama
                              Mississippi
                              Georgia
                              Florida
                              South Carolina
                              Colorado
                              North Carolina
                              Michigan
                              Pennsylvania
                              Virginia
                              Hawaii
                              California
                              Nevada
                              New Mexico
                              Minnesota
                              Illinois
                              New York
                              Maryland
                              All of New England except Vermont

                              These states would limp by:
                              South Dakota
                              Montana
                              Idaho

                              These states would be mostly ok:
                              Oregon
                              Idaho

                              These states wouldn't sneeze:
                              Washington
                              Vermont

                              Based entirely on generation capacity. Not a perfect measure, but it works. I also created a Kepler's Proposal F-cked Factor by taking the green energy% minus the fossil fuel% and only six states were above 0%.

                              WA 58%
                              VT 54%
                              ID 48%
                              OR 40%
                              SD 17%
                              MT 5%
                              ND -14%
                              IA -20%

                              Maine -22%
                              CA -23%
                              DC -30%
                              KS -33%
                              NV -38%
                              NH -38%
                              MN -39%
                              OK -47%
                              NM -47%
                              CO -52%
                              NC -53%
                              NE -53%

                              NY -54%
                              AZ -55%
                              TN -56%
                              SC -57%

                              IL -58%
                              TX -59%
                              AL -60%
                              WY -62%
                              AK -63%

                              HI -64%
                              PA -67%
                              UT -67%
                              CT -68%
                              AR -70%
                              NJ -70%
                              MI -70%
                              GA -71%
                              MD -74%
                              VA -76%
                              MA -77%
                              WI -77%
                              MO -82%
                              IN -83%
                              WV -86%
                              LA -87%

                              OH -88%
                              MS -88%
                              FL -90%
                              KY -90%

                              RI -91%
                              Delaware -98%

                              If I recall correctly Maine utilities have scaled back operations at natural gas power plants due to supply problems in winter and pricing, offset by importing additional hydro power from quebec. So our consumption doesn’t match up well with generating capacity. Just a couple years ago natural gas accounted for about 50% of the power generated in Maine. Now it’s behind Hydro (30%) biomass (~25%) and wind (20%), but that doesn’t include what’s produced elsewhere and imported to make up for the cut in natural gas power generation.

                              Comment


                              • Re: Climate Change 2: Thank God for Global Warming

                                I’ve been looking for the consumption tables. They’re there, but I haven’t taken the time to get them.

                                I really need to though. Could be interesting.
                                Code:
                                As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                                College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                                BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                                Originally posted by SanTropez
                                May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                                Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                                I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                                Originally posted by Kepler
                                When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                                He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                                Comment

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