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WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

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  • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    According to CHN there is a 37% chance that MSU doesn't win the Sauer Trophy. Plus there is an 11% chance that BGSU gets in without winning the tournament and a 2% chance NMU gets in without winning the tournament so about 50% chance of 2 teams from the WCHA getting in right now... They probably lost about 10% because of NMU losing a game to UAH last weekend.
    Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

    Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

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    • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

      Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
      According to CHN there is a 37% chance that MSU doesn't win the Sauer Trophy. Plus there is an 11% chance that BGSU gets in without winning the tournament and a 2% chance NMU gets in without winning the tournament so about 50% chance of 2 teams from the WCHA getting in right now... They probably lost about 10% because of NMU losing a game to UAH last weekend.
      I'd love to know the underpinnings of their model.

      GFM
      Geof F. Morris
      UAH BSE MAE 2002
      UAHHockey.com

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      • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

        Originally posted by LSSULaker889294 View Post
        What are the chances of the WCHA having at least two teams in the NCAA tournament?
        One of the problems is that Minnesota can't lose anymore! Using the Dahl PWR Calculator, neither BGSU nor NMU can catch the Gophers this weekend, even with a sweep. UNO and NoDak are immediately ahead of BGSU, but they play each other this weekend, so one of those teams is going to get 2 wins, and the other might get one. The best result I could get involves Providence getting swept by Maine, in which case I got BGSU up to 13.

        So, to answer your question, we can get two, but by far the most likely way that happens is we get Kato and the winner of the Jeff Sauer trophy.

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        • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

          Originally posted by gfmorris View Post
          I'd love to know the underpinnings of their model.

          GFM
          They rely on KRACH ratings, plus 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations. It has a bit of a smell to it. With 4 teams left in it, I don't see how anyone can be a 63% favorite. Cornell is 52%, SCSU 45%, Notre Dame 37%, Mercyhurst 30%, and BC 22%. Those all look more reasonable.

          Considering we split with both NMU and BGSU, including splits in Mankato, 63% seems large.
          Last edited by purpleinnebraska; 03-05-2018, 02:31 PM.

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          • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

            Originally posted by purpleinnebraska View Post
            They rely on KRACH ratings, plus 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations
            KRACH is retrodictive and a bit of a pain to calculate. Elo is something that you can do pretty cleanly.

            GFM
            Geof F. Morris
            UAH BSE MAE 2002
            UAHHockey.com

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            • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

              Where Have All the Gentlemen Gone?
              Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

              Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

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              • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

                I was told there would be no math...
                AF 99

                M-A-V-E-R-I-C-K-S, MAVERICKS, MAVERICKS, GOOOOO STATE!

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                • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

                  Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
                  It should be over, but you know, it just gets expensive to do that. Instead of going with the winnowed pool, everyone is chasing everyone.

                  GFM
                  Geof F. Morris
                  UAH BSE MAE 2002
                  UAHHockey.com

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                  • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

                    Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
                    One thing I always loved about College Hockey was that small schools could compete with big schools. Conference realignment was all about money and putting small schools in their place. Just another example of how big schools have no respect for ethics in athletics, and the small school community needs to be smarter and espouse our more positive and developmental environment to students and recruits.
                    “They are a **** site better than the U.S. Army, at least we know that they will be there in the morning.”
                    – Lewis B. Chesty Puller
                    when a journalist asked him about being surrounded by 22. enemy divisions

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                    • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

                      Originally posted by devildog View Post
                      One thing I always loved about College Hockey was that small schools could compete with big schools. Conference realignment was all about money and putting small schools in their place. Just another example of how big schools have no respect for ethics in athletics, and the small school community needs to be smarter and espouse our more positive and developmental environment to students and recruits.
                      There are two issues here. Big schools are perverting the recruiting process as detailed in the op-ed.

                      In my opinion the conference realignment is not the fault of the B1G schools, but rather the medium-sized schools wanting to feel bigger and more important. The Big Ten has a rule that when six member schools field a team in any sport, those schools must be a part of the Big Ten Conference in that sport. Penn State started their program as #6 which forced the existing 5 schools (MSU, Mich, Wisc, Minn and OSU) into forming the Big Ten hockey conference. If that was the only change things would have transitioned relatively smoothly. The WCHA and CCHA would continue to be solid 8-team leagues. But UND, DU, etc, took that as an opportunity to break away so they wouldn't have to travel to smaller towns like Houghton, Bemidji, etc. I blame the realignment on those mid-size schools in bigger markets that pushed to create the Nacho Conference.

                      Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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                      • Originally posted by MTUHuskies View Post
                        But UND, DU, etc, took that as an opportunity to break away so they wouldn't have to travel to smaller towns like Houghton, Bemidji, etc.
                        This.

                        It was UND and DU's baby to stop writing welfare checks to UAA and MTU after the WCHA Final Five every year.


                        Miami was coerced because of ties to DU and Gwozdecki (who ironically, never coached a game in his new conference). Omaha with Blais' ties to UND. And tUMD I haven't figured out how they got suckered into rounding out the Original Motel 6 league.

                        We all know Jan Brady State begged not to leave the WCHA, then begged to leave the WCHA. And Western, well, Miami likely twisted their arm after BGSU said no.
                        Last edited by aparch; 03-06-2018, 08:08 AM.
                        “Demolish the bridges behind you… then there is no choice but to build again.”

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                        • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

                          Originally posted by MTUHuskies View Post
                          There are two issues here. Big schools are perverting the recruiting process as detailed in the op-ed.

                          In my opinion the conference realignment is not the fault of the B1G schools, but rather the medium-sized schools wanting to feel bigger and more important. The Big Ten has a rule that when six member schools field a team in any sport, those schools must be a part of the Big Ten Conference in that sport. Penn State started their program as #6 which forced the existing 5 schools (MSU, Mich, Wisc, Minn and OSU) into forming the Big Ten hockey conference. If that was the only change things would have transitioned relatively smoothly. The WCHA and CCHA would continue to be solid 8-team leagues. But UND, DU, etc, took that as an opportunity to break away so they wouldn't have to travel to smaller towns like Houghton, Bemidji, etc. I blame the realignment on those mid-size schools in bigger markets that pushed to create the Nacho Conference.

                          Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
                          Realignment is fully the fault of the Big Ten schools.

                          The assumed rule about sponsoring a conference championship when 50% of the schools play at the varsity level? The Big Ten knew in November of 2012 that they were adding Maryland and Rutgers, so they would have 14 members in 2014. They ramrodded the league formation through to beat the "deadline" and grandfather it in to technically pre-date expansion. Berenson and Asbestos wanted to stop going to Alaska and the like, I'm sure MN and WI were happy to stop going to Anchorage too.

                          Once they did that, it opened the door for the Nacho.
                          Last edited by John J. MacInnes; 03-06-2018, 08:10 AM.

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                          • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

                            Originally posted by John J. MacInnes View Post
                            Realignment is fully the fault of the Big Ten schools.

                            The assumed rule about sponsoring a conference championship when 50% of the schools play at the varsity level? The Big Ten knew in November of 2012 that they were adding Maryland and Rutgers, so they would have 14 members in 2014. They ramrodded the league formation through to beat the "deadline" and grandfather it in to technically pre-date expansion.

                            Once they did that, it opened the door for the Nacho.
                            That's an interesting angle I have not heard before. Thanks for the insight. But even so, the Nacho didnt have to happen and did more to upset things than creating the Big Ten did.

                            Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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                            • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

                              This is not so much about realignment as it is the biggest schools looking to tilt college hockey in their direction. Lucia’s proposal to limit age and other proposed rule changes have all been meant to minimize the competitiveness of smaller schools. It’s arrogant because they think because they have more money and are bigger we should all bow down to them and agree it’s ok for them to win and us to be happy with also competing.
                              Thie end of the gentleman’s agreement is a back door way to allow them to get the best players, and stockpiling recruits is not in the interest of the players
                              If you are a recruit and a big school sends a private jet to pick you up for a campus visit who do you pick
                              MTU: Three time NCAA champions.

                              It never get's easier, you just go faster. -Greg Lemond

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                              • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

                                Originally posted by aparch View Post
                                It was UND and DU's baby to stop writing welfare checks to UAA and MTU after the WCHA Final Five every year.
                                This won't be a popular opinion on this thread, but why should they have to keep doing that? Especially when the cash cow B1G schools left.

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