2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

[Kepler]

Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

T.S. Chantal https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at...start#contents

Pretty far north for a storm formation, isn't it?

Or is the Earth so hot now that 40 degrees N is the new Tropic of Cancer?

[Ralph Baer]

Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

T. S. Dorian https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...?cone#contents

[ScottK]

Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

Pretty far north for a storm formation, isn't it?

Or is the Earth so hot now that 40 degrees N is the new Tropic of Cancer?

I was away, so I'm just getting to this now, but the Gulf Stream is marginally warm enough that far north. It's rare, but it has happened before.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/aug_11_20.png

[wolverineTrumpet]

Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

Yesterday was the first day of the school year for my nieces. 2 years after Hurricane Harvey, they are still riding charter buses (because Houston didn't have enough school buses) to their temporary school while their elementary school is rebuilt.

[Randy26]

Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

Yesterday was the first day of the school year for my nieces. 2 years after Hurricane Harvey, they are still riding charter buses (because Houston didn't have enough school buses) to their temporary school while their elementary school is rebuilt.

How much long does it take for them to finish the school?

[Ralph Baer]

Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

T. S. Erin https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at...start#contents


I am still waiting for T. S. Eliot.

[mookie1995]

Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

T. S. Erin https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at...start#contents


I am still waiting for T. S. Eliot.

not mookie!!!! that would be a wasteland!!

[joecct]

Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

Latest models are showing Dorion as a 100MPH hurricane as it approaches FLA.

[alfablue]

Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

Latest models are showing Dorion as a 100MPH hurricane as it approaches FLA.

Given how very, very wrong they have been relative to the approach to Puerto Rico, I'd not really put much into that, yet. It was supposed head north far west of where it's actually doing it.

[joecct]

Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

Given how very, very wrong they have been relative to the approach to Puerto Rico, I'd not really put much into that, yet. It was supposed head north far west of where it's actually doing it.

[alfablue]

Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

But last night, the eye was going to hit in Ponce, PR, which it isn't going to do that by any means. So in less than 12 hours, the actual result is not even close to any of the predictions I saw yesterday. They all missed by the cone they are projecting 12 hours out.

edit- on this page- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...track#contents go from advisory 14, which was 8pm last night, and you will see that the eastern edge of the prediction cone was NE Puerto Rico. As of 16a, the center was on that line, and now 17, the western edge of the direction cone is now that line. Seems that this one has more a mind of it's own vs following a model path.

[MadTownSioux]

Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

T. S. Erin https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at...start#contents


I am still waiting for T. S. Eliot.

T.S. Garp

(Oh, wait, am I in the wrong thread?)

[joecct]

Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

But last night, the eye was going to hit in Ponce, PR, which it isn't going to do that by any means. So in less than 12 hours, the actual result is not even close to any of the predictions I saw yesterday. They all missed by the cone they are projecting 12 hours out.

edit- on this page- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...track#contents go from advisory 14, which was 8pm last night, and you will see that the eastern edge of the prediction cone was NE Puerto Rico. As of 16a, the center was on that line, and now 17, the western edge of the direction cone is now that line. Seems that this one has more a mind of it's own vs following a model path.

Alfa

Mike's Weather Page (https://www.spaghettimodels.com) has been consistent on Dorian. For the past few days his morning and evening facebook sessions have been warnings that once Dorian got past Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic it would hit warm water and blow up. The blocking high pressure ridge would determine how far north and west it would go and don't ignore a jaunt across FLA before turning north.

Follow Mike on FB and watch his live sessions. We Drunk Donkeys feel he is more believable than your local weather person and TWC.

[alfablue]

Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

Alfa

Mike's Weather Page (https://www.spaghettimodels.com) has been consistent on Dorian. For the past few days his morning and evening facebook sessions have been warnings that once Dorian got past Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic it would hit warm water and blow up. The blocking high pressure ridge would determine how far north and west it would go and don't ignore a jaunt across FLA before turning north.

Follow Mike on FB and watch his live sessions. We Drunk Donkeys feel he is more believable than your local weather person and TWC.

Most of his page is just reporting what NOAA is putting out. So saying his models have been consistent, as I see it, is just saying NOAA has been consistent. I've already posted that.

The other source is from "tropical tidbits" and if you look at the models there, you see that they got them very wrong yesterday, too- like the NOAA model, last evening, the storm was going to hit central southern PR, and it ended up east of the most eastern model. So in less than a day, the model path through the Greater Antilles, has gotten the path wrong. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#05L Even look at the path's from 00Z to 18Z and see how it's shifted, and how far off one of them even sticks from reality.

Mind you, a lot of people really care about how hurricanes get past these islands. It matters to me, a lot. I'm quite thankful that the model got it so wrong, as my family was looking at a direct hit.

I'm not suggesting that the model that once it gets past, it will turn into a hurricane was wrong- that has turned out to be quite accurate.

I'm suggesting that people keep closer track on it than just watching the models.

You should look into sources more....

[dxmnkd316]

Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

Alfa

Mike's Weather Page (https://www.spaghettimodels.com) has been consistent on Dorian. For the past few days his morning and evening facebook sessions have been warnings that once Dorian got past Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic it would hit warm water and blow up. The blocking high pressure ridge would determine how far north and west it would go and don't ignore a jaunt across FLA before turning north.

Follow Mike on FB and watch his live sessions. We Drunk Donkeys feel he is more believable than your local weather person and TWC.

Kinda sorta. He pulls the front and center data from the NHC. You can see their past models here:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...track#contents

Look at the jumps from 13A to 14 and then the progression from 15 to 16A. As it went over Fort-de-France, the models changed its path pretty significantly. I'm guessing that's because there's a lot of uncertainty that gets introduced when it tracks over land. Plus the cone of uncertainty is probably only a 90 or 95%. There's always a small chance it deviates from the cone.