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Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

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  • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    Ohio State is up 2-0 on a penalty shot, but I hope someone can explain this: the game tracker says Penn State got a penalty for delay of game, and Ohio State got a penalty shot out of it. How does that happen?

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    • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

      Under Rule 67, a Delay of Game penalty can be called in multiple situations. One of them is when a defender, other than the goalie, intentionally covers up the puck in the crease. That's what happened today.

      Also note that the Penalty Shot option is available to the ref in some, but not all, of the Delay of Game scenarios.

      It was a pretty wild play. It was reviewed for offside (onside call confirmed); and reviewed for a possible goal, on a shot by Jacyn Reeves (no goal call confirmed). Those decisions allowed the penalty shot to proceed, and Grace Zarzecki's conversion was superb. More on this in the 3 Stars post. (Coming Soon)

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      • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

        Originally posted by pgb-ohio View Post
        It was a pretty wild play. It was reviewed for offside (onside call confirmed); and reviewed for a possible goal, on a shot by Jacyn Reeves (no goal call confirmed). Those decisions allowed the penalty shot to proceed, and Grace Zarzecki's conversion was superb. More on this in the 3 Stars post. (Coming Soon)
        The 3 Stars have now been posted in the WCHA Thread. As planned, Grace's penalty shot goal figures prominently in the write-up.

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        • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

          Pgb-Ohio ... and my other friends here that put up with my rant last night (and put up with me in general), I am now off the ledge. But please, just promise me they're going to play like this every game from here on out (haha)! Despite last night's performance, it has been great to see this team win games and be in the top ten. I don't want to miss out on all the fun! Love this team! ZedLeppelin, you are correct in that the Buckeyes were a different team today. This was the Buckeye team that we had gotten used to seeing. Pgb has already explained the situation with the Bucks penalty shot where the Penn State player covered the puck in the crease. As Pgb said, it was a pretty wild play. I was happy for the girls today. They really stepped it up and looked like a top ten team. The Bucks smothered Penn State today, outshooting them 41-24. Penn State goaltender Hannah Ehresmann kept the Lions in the game with some great saves today, stopping 39 of the 41 shots she faced. Ohio State backstop Kassidy Sauve added to her Ohio State shutout record today with 24 saves on 24 Penn State shots. The Buckeye goals were scored by Liz Schepers and Grace Zarzecki. The Bucks were also very good in the face-off circle today, winning 38 of the 59 face-offs. Next up for the Buckeyes is another series vs top ten Robert Morris at the OSU Ice Rink next weekend before getting back to WCHA play after that. Penn State will head out to Missouri to take on Lindenwood next weekend.

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          • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

            Originally posted by ARM View Post
            I agree. I saw the series in Minneapolis, and I doubt that the OSU would have taken any points without Maltais. Obviously in close games, that may be true about several players.
            Yeah, BigFan mentioned this last night, and I think it is probably a legitimate point. Emma is obviously a very gifted player and shuffling lines to make up for her absence probably isn't as easy as it sounds when these kids are used to playing with certain players. It's nice to have this problem where we miss kids because they are playing for their national teams. I would rather have players like that on the team and have them miss games than not have them. When you recruit players with that ability, it goes with the territory that they are going to miss some games while suiting up for their national teams. I will definitely be glad to have her back vs RMU next weekend!
            Last edited by osualum86; 01-07-2018, 09:49 AM.

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            • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

              Originally posted by osualum86 View Post
              Yeah, dd17 mentioned this last night, and I think it is probably a legitimate point.
              My reading of the thread is that BigFan was the poster praising Emma, while dd17 was critiquing the coaching staff. Then again, it was hard to tell. At least 4 posts had the quotes messed up. There must have been some sort of systems glitch at the time of that conversation. Or, maybe everyone was drinking heavily after Friday's game.

              In any event, I do believe BigFan is the poster who deserves the props.

              Emma is obviously a very gifted player and shuffling lines to make up for her absence probably isn't as easy as it sounds when these kids are used to playing with certain players.
              True. Setting lines is a real art, with many factors to take into consideration. And some of those factors are known only to those in the room.

              The players do, of course, need to be at least somewhat interchangeable. This weekend's series is Exhibit A in that regard. As we've been discussing, a certain number of missed games is inevitable. A team can't fall apart just because a certain line combination isn't available.

              And yet, it's undeniable that certain combinations develop a chemistry that can't be coached. In those cases, the task is to identify the synergy & harness it. Emma's return will put some of those options back in play.

              It's nice to have this problem where we miss kids because they are playing for their national teams. I would rather have players like that on the team and have them miss games than not have them. When you recruit players with that ability, it goes with the territory that they are going to miss some games while suiting up for their national teams. I will definitely be glad to have her back vs RMU next weekend!
              Agreed on all counts.

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              • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

                You are correct about BigFan regarding the Emma Maltais statement. Gonna go back and edit that.

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                • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

                  Originally posted by osualum86 View Post
                  Gonna go back and edit that.
                  Me too; thanks pgb!
                  "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
                  And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

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                  • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

                    Looks like the Buckeyes put it together on Saturday. Maybe, just maybe the alarm bell was wrung too soon! Having said that, scoring two goals, one of them on a penalty shot does not indicate that the team's scoring woes are behind them. The upcoming weekend series against RMU will be hugely important and only a sweep will keep them in the top 8, at least that is my view. Good bounce back game for the Buckeyes. And then come the Gophers, Bulldogs and Badgers! Ouch....

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                    • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

                      Originally posted by Puckdrop14 View Post
                      Looks like the Buckeyes put it together on Saturday. Maybe, just maybe the alarm bell was wrung too soon! Having said that, scoring two goals, one of them on a penalty shot does not indicate that the team's scoring woes are behind them. The upcoming weekend series against RMU will be hugely important and only a sweep will keep them in the top 8, at least that is my view. Good bounce back game for the Buckeyes. And then come the Gophers, Bulldogs and Badgers! Ouch....
                      The Buckeyes looked like the ranked team we have seen this season. Totally agree with you on the goal-scoring, though. It's not that the Buckeyes are not getting their chances. They had plenty of chances to blow Saturday's game open. They need to get better at finishing, whether it is on a breakaway, or in traffic around the net. In regard to the rankings, the only ranking that means anything is the pairwise, and if I have learned anything about the pairwise, it is the unpredictability of it. I was sure we were going to drop after splitting at home this past weekend vs a team that is ranked well below us and we actually moved up a spot from 7th to 6th ... go figure. I would really like to see a sweep this weekend at home vs a top ten RMU team. We'll see. We need to come out strong and win Friday. As my friend klbaum1077 likes to say over in the men's forum ... "You can't sweep if you don't win Friday." We'll see what happens. Then, as you mentioned, we have the teams I have always characterized as the big three coming up ... Minnesota, Minnesota-Duluth, and Wisconsin. Those three programs have won multiple National Titles.
                      Last edited by osualum86; 01-09-2018, 07:45 AM.

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                      • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

                        Originally posted by Puckdrop14 View Post
                        Looks like the Buckeyes put it together on Saturday. Maybe, just maybe the alarm bell was wrung too soon!
                        Actually, it probably should have sounded back during the St. Cloud series. OK, I'm talking alarm clock, while you probably mean something like fire alarm.

                        Having said that, scoring two goals, one of them on a penalty shot does not indicate that the team's scoring woes are behind them.
                        Both goalies were good in the Saturday PSU game. The score could easily have been 4-1 rather than 2-0. And yet both you and '86 make a good point about finishing touches. Maybe give the Dahlquist/Maltais/Skaggs line another try? That group had some scoring magic.

                        The upcoming weekend series against RMU will be hugely important and only a sweep will keep them in the top 8, at least that is my view. Good bounce back game for the Buckeyes. And then come the Gophers, Bulldogs and Badgers! Ouch....
                        One reason to belong to the WCHA is to compete against the best possible competition. Same thing with scheduling excellent non-conference teams like RMU. But yes, playing these 4 teams on consecutive weekends really is running the gauntlet. At least 3 of the 4 series are at home.

                        Originally posted by osualum86 View Post
                        ...In regard to the rankings, the only ranking that means anything is the pairwise, and if I have learned anything about the pairwise, it is the unpredictability of it. I was sure we were going to drop after splitting at home this past weekend vs a team that is ranked well below us and we actually moved up a spot from 7th to 6th ... go figure.
                        I suppose one issue is that every D-1 game played potentially affects the rankings, but the natural tendency is to focus only on one's own team. My general understanding: The key is to win the season series against as many opponents as possible. From there, you get a dividend when those teams win. I think. If that's at least close, it's urgent to at least split with MN & UMD -- so that we win the season series with each.

                        Maybe one of the quantitative people can help us translate Pairwise into English.

                        Then, as you mentioned, we have the teams I have always characterized as the big three coming up ... Minnesota, Minnesota-Duluth, and Wisconsin. Those three programs have won multiple National Titles.
                        We really should be playing Clarkson this semester as well. We're such slackers.

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                        • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

                          Originally posted by pgb-ohio View Post
                          Maybe one of the quantitative people can help us translate Pairwise into English.
                          The Pairwise comparisons have three components to them, but they will most often come down to 'who has the better RPI?'.

                          The three components are 1) RPI, 2) won-lose record against common opponents, 3) head-to-head

                          All teams will have an RPI, and every pair of teams will have a record against common opponents. Relatively few pairs will have head-to-head records. So with no head-to-head, it comes down to only the first two, and if you 'split' those two - one team with a better RPI, and the other with a better 'common opponent' - 'better RPI' wins.

                          So, looking down OSU's schedule, and the current Pairwise standings, the only two interesting 'pairs' I see that could be decided on anything other than 'better RPI' are Robert Morris, and Minnesota, because of the head-to-head component.

                          Robert Morris - OSU plays them two weekends (?), and already split one weekend. Each team gets one 'Pairwise comparison' point for a head-to-head win. Another split this weekend, and 'head-to-head' will be cancelled out, and you'll be back to 'who has the better RPI?'. A sweep by either would give that team a 3-1 comparison lead. Now, a 3-1 lead can be overcome if the 'swept team' ends the year with a better RPI and a better 'common opponents' comparison. Assuming a sweep, and then digging through a 'common opponent' comparison is more than I want to do this AM

                          Minnesota - OSU currently has a one point lead in the head-to-head (1.5 to 0.5), but with two and maybe three games left to play. Minn has a better RPI, so they get a 'comparison point' for that. Obviously, plenty of 'common opponents', with plenty of more games to be played with those common opponents. But (again) without digging through those 'common' results, Minn must be winning 'common opponents' comparison right now, because they are winning the overall comparison. (One used to be able to click on a comparison table at USCHO to see the specifics of a given pair, but that has gone away).

                          RPI itself is a complex calculation based on a team's won-lose percentage, and their opponents' won-lose, and their opponents' opponents' won-lose. But simply put: beating good teams is good for your RPI; beating bad teams not as good; losing to bad teams is bad; losing to good teams not all that bad, but still a little bad.

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                          • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

                            Thanks robertearle. I appreciate that you took the time to post that.

                            My casual little try was a somewhat reasonable description of a couple of the trees, but certainly lacked an understanding of the overall forest. For example, an opponent's subsequent won-lost percentage does matter as I suggested, but it's only one component of the RPI. Which in turn is only one component of the Pairwise.

                            Please allow me some follow-up inquiries:

                            1. If I'm understanding you correctly, the games with the Colonials & the Gophers have extra importance in the Pairwise only because those teams are close to the Buckeyes in the rankings. As such, head-to-head results could come into play as something of a tiebreaker at the end. But if one of the teams rockets up or plummets down in the rankings, suddenly it's just another series -- meaning no special Pairwise importance. Correct?

                            2. Along the same lines, the OSU/UW series has no special Pairwise importance because UW is inevitably going to finish with a better RPI this year. From a Buckeye point of view, playing the Badgers is an opportunity to get a little statistical push from a victory, but that's it. No real downside risk because losing to a great team is only a little bad. No opportunity to move in front of the Badgers because the gap in "overall body of work" is too great. Accurate?

                            3. As we get close to the end, is there any common scenario where an individual series could have a big impact in the overall rankings? I get that the rankings are very volatile early in the season due to the small number of data points. But for those of us who don't do the calculations, it often seems like late season results that should "matter," don't have any real impact in the rankings. When is a series genuinely huge from a Pairwise perspective?

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                            • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

                              Originally posted by robertearle View Post
                              . . . if you 'split' those two - one team with a better RPI, and the other with a better 'common opponent' - 'better RPI' wins.
                              Maybe. The committee has left itself the discretion to say that, if one criterion is very close and the other has a significant gap, they can go with the latter. This used to matter more, when there were more categories, but it means that having the better RPI is not an automatic tiebreaker. What constitutes "very close" and "significant" is entirely undefined.

                              But simply put: beating good teams is good for your RPI; beating bad teams not as good; losing to bad teams is bad; losing to good teams not all that bad, but still a little bad.
                              It's not that simple. In the raw RPI calculation, it matters not at all which teams you beat and which you lose to; the only relevant numbers are your winning percentage, your opponents' winning percentage, and your opponents' opponents' winning percentage. Which teams you beat gets entirely thrown out.

                              Then you get into the modifications of raw RPI. Because RPI is such a deeply stupid ranking system, a win against a really bad team can actually drop your rating by hurting your Opponents' Winning Percentage component by more than it helps your own Winning Percentage. To compensate, the committee throws out every game you win that would hurt your RPI and recalculates. The number of games that get thrown out depends on both how weak a given opponent was and how good you are. This means that beating the weakest teams on your schedule is imperative, not just because it helps your winning percentage, but because it prevents your OWP component from getting polluted.

                              Then you get the Quality Win bonus, which applies an arbitrary bonus to any win you have against a team in the top 15 of RPI, and half of that bonus for a tie. The amount of this bonus is on a sliding scale depending upon exactly where the opponent sits in RPI.

                              The calculation of raw RPI is pretty straightforward, which is why the NCAA likes it. You'd think that having to make so many arbitrary, ad hoc modifications of the formula would clue them into the fact that RPI is complete and total garbage that the modifications can't really fix, but it seems that the relevant decision makers are innumerate.

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                              • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

                                Originally posted by pgb-ohio View Post
                                1. If I'm understanding you correctly, the games with the Colonials & the Gophers have extra importance in the Pairwise only because those teams are close to the Buckeyes in the rankings. As such, head-to-head results could come into play as something of a tiebreaker at the end. But if one of the teams rockets up or plummets down in the rankings, suddenly it's just another series -- meaning no special Pairwise importance. Correct?
                                Probably incorrect. Those head-to-head wins are still used to help decide who wins the comparison between the two teams, and the first cut for who makes the tournament is based upon the raw number of comparisons that you win. So, let's say you finish with a better RPI than a team you lost to twice during the season, and you finish about even in a very small number of games against common opponents. The committee might decide that the RPI advantage is not sufficiently "significant" (see previous post) to overcome the two points for HtH wins. So, you'd lose the comparison against that opponent, and if you were on the tournament bubble, that could mean falling out.

                                There are a lot of caveats in all of that, because there are places where the prioritization of selection criteria is obscure. It's unlikely that the specific situation described above would happen, but dumber things have taken place.

                                2. Along the same lines, the OSU/UW series has no special Pairwise importance because UW is inevitably going to finish with a better RPI this year. From a Buckeye point of view, playing the Badgers is an opportunity to get a little statistical push from a victory, but that's it. No real downside risk because losing to a great team is only a little bad. No opportunity to move in front of the Badgers because the gap in "overall body of work" is too great. Accurate?
                                Inaccurate. As I said above, a loss is a loss when it comes to calculating RPI. KRACH works the way you're thinking; RPI does not.

                                3. As we get close to the end, is there any common scenario where an individual series could have a big impact in the overall rankings? I get that the rankings are very volatile early in the season due to the small number of data points. But for those of us who don't do the calculations, it often seems like late season results that should "matter," don't have any real impact in the rankings. When is a series genuinely huge from a Pairwise perspective?
                                Anytime you're in a situation where HtH results could flip a comparison, it's a huge series. Games against very bad teams can be huge, because you don't get to drop a loss or tie from your RPI calculation. Back when they had the "Record vs Teams Under Consideration" component to PWR, any series played by a team hovering right around the threshold of being a TUC was huge, because small changes in their winning percentage had a outsized effect on which games were included in other teams' record vs TUC; this component was so mindboggingly dumb that it only took the NCAA about two decades to realize that it had to go.

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