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RPI Engineers 2018-2019

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  • Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

    Well, getting swept pretty much ended our hopes of getting up to 4th or higher, but that's life. Our playoff odds ended up not moving at all, so all that changed is that we need the points this weekend a little more than we did before. Given that this is a home weekend, I think anything less than 3 points would be a disappointment. Also we should consider scoring goals and allowing fewer than 40 shots against.

    RPI KRACH (RRWP): 62.49 (0.4066)

    MCTs (Mean/Median/Mode/Range):
    Points - 21.77 / 22 / 21 / 17 - 29
    Rank - 6.40 / 6 / 6 / 4 - 10
    Playoffs - 98.7% (Home - 0.2%)
    Most likely opponent - at Clarkson (28.0%)

    Conference Rankings:
    1. Princeton
    2. Cornell
    3. Clarkson
    4. Colgate
      —————
    5. SLU
    6. RPI
    7. Harvard
    8. Quinnipiac
      —————
      —————
    9. Yale
    10. Dartmouth
    11. Brown
    12. Union


    This Weekend's Playoff Implications:
    Code:
           |      Da      |
    _______|  W |  T |  L |
    |  | W |100%|>99%|>99%|
    |Ha| T |>99%| 99%| 97%|
    |  | L | 99%| 97%| 92%|
    Note: Again, I don't think hitting 21 points would guarantee a playoff spot, but the simulation did not encounter any instance of us sweeping this weekend and missing the playoffs.

    RPI Points vs. Position:
    Code:
       |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------    
    17 |                                       0.0   0.9   0.4   0.0            
    18 |                                 0.0   0.3   1.9   0.4                  
    19 |                           0.0   0.2   3.5   5.9   0.4                  
    20 |                           0.0   1.4   6.5   3.6   0.1                  
    21 |                           0.4   8.2  11.0   1.8   0.0                  
    22 |                           1.6  10.1   4.8   0.2                        
    23 |                           5.4  11.0   1.3   0.0                        
    24 |                     0.0   4.5   4.5   0.1                              
    25 |                     0.0   4.7   1.7   0.0                              
    26 |                     0.0   1.7   0.3                                    
    27 |                     0.1   0.8   0.0                                    
    28 |                     0.0   0.1   0.0                                    
    29 |                     0.0   0.0
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

    Comment


    • Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

      We need to get some points this weekend as the last two weekends will be more difficult.
      sigpic

      Let's Go 'Tute!

      Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

      2012 Poser Of The Year

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      • Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post
        We need to get some points this weekend as the last two weekends will be more difficult.
        Up all night thinking about it! Now that is dedication.

        Comment


        • Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

          Originally posted by Reddington View Post
          Up all night thinking about it! Now that is dedication.
          No, I had awakened, and I read lugnut's most recent post which made me look at the schedule.
          sigpic

          Let's Go 'Tute!

          Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

          2012 Poser Of The Year

          Comment


          • Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

            sigpic

            Let's Go 'Tute!

            Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

            2012 Poser Of The Year

            Comment


            • Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

              I hadn't realized that Lovisa will still trail the number set by Lindenwood's Nicole Hensley, who had 4,094 saves, but her first season was only provisionally in D-I. It's very unlikely that she would be able to reach that mark unless we win in the first round. She is currently averaging 34 saves per game, meaning she would need 9-10 more games at that clip to eclipse 4,094.

              If she gets 40 more, she will have the D-I record as understood right now, but I wouldn't be shocked if at some point in the future Hensley's achievement is given precedence.
              RPI Pep Band
              GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
              🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

              2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
              2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
              2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

              Comment


              • Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

                Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post
                We need to get some points this weekend as the last two weekends will be more difficult.
                Yes. I am not at all comfortable with Lugnut's calculation that we have a 98.7% probability of making the playoffs. For Yale (currently 9th) to overtake RPI they would need to gain 5 points in 6 remaining games (4 points would tie with RPI but the Engineers would win the tie-breaker). Yale and RPI play exactly the same 6 teams over the next 3 weekends and both have 4 home games. I have trouble seeing either team beating Cornell, Colgate or Princeton, but games against Dartmouth, Quinnipiac and Harvard are winnable for either team, so this weekend against Dartmouth and Harvard is big.

                Comment


                • Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

                  Originally posted by hab View Post
                  Yes. I am not at all comfortable with Lugnut's calculation that we have a 98.7% probability of making the playoffs. For Yale (currently 9th) to overtake RPI they would need to gain 5 points in 6 remaining games (4 points would tie with RPI but the Engineers would win the tie-breaker). Yale and RPI play exactly the same 6 teams over the next 3 weekends and both have 4 home games. I have trouble seeing either team beating Cornell, Colgate or Princeton, but games against Dartmouth, Quinnipiac and Harvard are winnable for either team, so this weekend against Dartmouth and Harvard is big.
                  From the most surface level, we are favored over Dartmouth and Quinnipiac, while Yale is only favored over Dartmouth (despite this, both teams are expected to earn 4 more points). The scary thing in all of this is that if Lovisa at any point stops being a brick wall, we're basically toast. Games against those three teams were actually not too lopsided in shots (78-94 against), but we only scored three goals across them.

                  I have felt for a while that KRACH is not a great tool for evaluating us this season. We are regularly skated out of the rink and only kept alive by Selander, but KRACH only sees the W at the end of the line. That said, Lovisa is a part of the team and the .943 SV% she has this season is not too far out of her career average so there's no reason to expect it to stop.

                  I'll feel much better with 4 points and at least that many goals scored this weekend.
                  RPI Pep Band
                  GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                  🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                  2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                  2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                  2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                  Comment


                  • Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

                    Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
                    I have felt for a while that KRACH is not a great tool for evaluating us this season.
                    Another possible tool for evaluating you, where your offense ranks 35th out of 35, but your D is 22nd and you're 30th overall:
                    http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/wchodr/current.html

                    This math is likely shortchanging the Engineers as well, but you can see the predictions for this weekend here:
                    http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/wchodr/next.html
                    "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
                    And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

                    Comment


                    • Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

                      Originally posted by ARM View Post
                      Another possible tool for evaluating you, where your offense ranks 35th out of 35, but your D is 22nd and you're 30th overall:
                      http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/wchodr/current.html

                      This math is likely shortchanging the Engineers as well, but you can see the predictions for this weekend here:
                      http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/wchodr/next.html
                      Oof. The defensive rating in CHODR does inherently account for goaltending, so I guess it would be better. My one quibble is that I'm not sure that it's true that goal scoring is best modeled by a Poisson distribution, or rather I don't know how well you can apply the same factors for the distribution to every team. That said, as much as I post about them on here, math and statistics aren't actually my areas of expertise, so I don't know how much I can critique CHODR after 15 minutes of thought. My anecdote-biased brain seems to say that scoring rates are dependent on score state more than a Poisson distribution would allow for. That we have an .833 win percentage when we score first (as opposed to 0.076 when trailing first) would suggest that there is something not-truly-random to scoring rates in our games.

                      As a note: KRACH has us at 24th overall, which does seem high to me.
                      RPI Pep Band
                      GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                      🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                      2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                      2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                      2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                      Comment


                      • Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

                        Really good analysis by both of you ARM and Lugnut. I have followed the Engineers for many years, and there is no question this is the most difficult team to figure out. My gut tells me that they are not as good as their record indicates (really pains me to say that). But, on the other hand I continue to be amazed at their ability to do what needs to be done to win games. Selander is a huge part of it, for sure, but having watched most of their games i am confident in saying that there is more to it than that. There is a real grittiness to this team. It seems to be a "rope-a-dope" approach: hit me with your best shots and wear yourself out ....all we need is one goal...maybe two...and you will leave the rink with your tail between your legs. If I were one of the top 4 teams I'm not sure I would want to face the Engineers in the first round.

                        Comment


                        • Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

                          Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
                          That we have an .833 win percentage when we score first (as opposed to 0.076 when trailing first) would suggest that there is something not-truly-random to scoring rates in our games.
                          That's an indication of very low scoring games. I would think that such stats are common for soccer teams.
                          sigpic

                          Let's Go 'Tute!

                          Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

                          2012 Poser Of The Year

                          Comment


                          • Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

                            RPI is confident with their goalie and it seems to show. If you have a great goalie that not only can keep you in the game, but can steal wins for you, it can completely transform your team and your team's mindset. Coach Vines also has the girls buying into that gritty play and constant hustle. He's done a fantastic job this year.

                            Comment


                            • Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

                              Of course, the game right after I point out that we have very little success when conceding first, we go on to win 5-2. Not that I'm complaining...
                              RPI Pep Band
                              GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                              🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                              2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                              2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                              2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                              Comment


                              • Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

                                Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
                                Of course, the game right after I point out that we have very little success when conceding first, we go on to win 5-2. Not that I'm complaining...
                                30 saves for Selander. She needs 10 more.
                                sigpic

                                Let's Go 'Tute!

                                Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

                                2012 Poser Of The Year

                                Comment

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