Tournament Speculation Thread

[PSUChamps2001]

East:
1) Oswego
2) Norwich
3) Amherst
4) Plattsburgh
5) Elmira
6) Manhattanville
7) Plymouth
8) Curry

West:
1) St. Norbert
2) St. Thomas
3) Adrian

Now, based on the new official rankings and if every leader wins and what we know the NCAA does with travel...

Play-ins:
Elmira @ Adrian
Curry @ Plattsburgh
Plymouth @ Manhattanville

Quarters:
St. Thomas @ SNC
Adrian/Elmira @ Oswego
Plymouth/Manhattanville @ Norwich
Curry/Plattsburgh @ Amherst


It's a killer for Plattsburgh to be ranked 4th. Play-in game then on the road for the quarters.

I have to do common opponent but Plattsburgh is ahead of Amherst in criteria currently...

[d3follower]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

I have to do common opponent but Plattsburgh is ahead of Amherst in criteria currently...

How so?? It looks as though Amherst wins the pairwise match-up with Plattsburgh by 3-1 . .

[AldenPartridge1819]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

I have to do common opponent but Plattsburgh is ahead of Amherst in criteria currently...

All that matters are these official NCAA rankings, and they have Amherst ahead, so...

[VT bragging rights]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

It's a killer for Plattsburgh to be ranked 4th. Play-in game then on the road for the quarters.

If I'm not mistaken I believe the same happened to Norwich last year and they defeated the Plattsburgh in the quaters in OT

[d3follower]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

I have to do common opponent but Plattsburgh is ahead of Amherst in criteria currently...

Amherst wins common opponents as of now -- could change this weekend:

COP Amh: 2- 0- 0 (1 point) Platt: 1- 0- 2 (0 point)

Common opponents are Middlebury and Williams. Plattsburgh was tied by Williams and Middlebury and won its second game over Middlebury. Amherst defeated both Williams and Middlebury but has games with both this coming weekend.

Amherst also has the better record versus ranked opponents as of now -- again that could change in the next few weeks . .

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

amherst wins common opponents as of now -- could change this weekend:

Cop amh: 2- 0- 0 (1 point) platt: 1- 0- 2 (0 point)

common opponents are middlebury and williams. Plattsburgh was tied by williams and middlebury and won its second game over middlebury. Amherst defeated both williams and middlebury but has games with both this coming weekend.

Amherst also has the better record versus ranked opponents as of now -- again that could change in the next few weeks . .

plattsburgh vs amherst
win .783 0 .833 1
sos .533 1 .531 0
h2h 0 0
cop 1-0-2 0 2-0-0 1
rnk 0.700 1 0.611 0
total 2 total 2

[NUProf]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

plattsburgh vs amherst
win .783 0 .833 1
sos .533 1 .531 0
h2h 0 0
cop 1-0-2 0 2-0-0 1
rnk 0.700 1 0.611 0
total 2 total 2

Clearly, the SOS is a push -

[d3follower]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

plattsburgh vs amherst
win .783 0 .833 1
sos .533 1 .531 0
h2h 0 0
cop 1-0-2 0 2-0-0 1
rnk 0.700 1 0.611 0
total 2 total 2

gotcha -- I transposed the ties and the losses when I looked at their respective records against ranked teams.

[PSUChamps2001]

gotcha -- I transposed the ties and the losses when I looked at their respective records against ranked teams.

its pretty much even. This weekend will probably put one or the other in the drivers seat...

[DIIIFan]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Where Platty is in the ranking doesn't matter. All one needs is to get in and from there anything goes. Just ask the Neumann fans. If you are in you aren't crying about why you were left out. And both teams should get in.
Oswego '89

[joecct]

Just some fact$:

The 2009-10 NCAA Men's Ice Hockey Championship cost the NCAA $246,042, for 2010-11 they budgeted $314,180 but spent $345,336 (a difference of $31,156).
For 2011-12, their budget is $319,280.

look at women's sports.

[Transplanted Tiger Fan]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Just for poops and giggles... if anyone has the time/energy, let's say the year is 2015 and the team's record landscapes are the same... what does the potential field look like with the absence of the NCHA bid and the Pool B in-play? Does the West suffer significantly (9-2 split)?

[nysportsfan29]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Just for poops and giggles... if anyone has the time/energy, let's say the year is 2015 and the team's record landscapes are the same... what does the potential field look like with the absence of the NCHA bid and the Pool B in-play? Does the West suffer significantly (9-2 split)?

I would guess that you'd just have St. Norbert and Elmira face off for the Pool B bid.

According to the Pairwise page, St. Norbert holds the edge in winning % - by .0478 - while Elmira has a .0234 edge in SOS. You'd then have to take into account their records against ranked opponents. Elmira sports a 10-5-1 record (.656) while St. Norbert's is 7-4-2 (.615).

Given that Elmira holds a 2 to 1 edge in the categories and one of those 2 is the all important SOS, you'll probably give Elmira the Pool B and then have St. Norbert face off against Plattsburgh for the first Pool C bid.

Platty holds a pretty big edge in win % (.0826) while SNC has a minuscule edge in SOS (.0007). Then you go back to record vs ranked teams and see that Plattsburgh holds a large edge there as well (.700 to .615). Plattsburgh gets the first Pool C, then.

The next team SNC faces off against would be Manhattanville. St. Norbert has the edge in win % (by .0409) and M'ville has the SOS edge (by .0215). St. Norbert has the edge in record vs ranked teams (.615 to .538). Both SNC's victories are larger than M'ville's SOS so you can - most likely - give SNC the 2nd pool C bid.

Based on the bracket breakdown from "the other site" Manhattanville has the last Pool C bid over St. Scholastica and that would stay the same.

So to answer your question, no. It's still an 8-3 split... unless I'm way off on all this.

[Transplanted Tiger Fan]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Fascinating. Not a smidge of difference in the field.

The big assumption in this exercise is the condition that the current-records landscape could apply in 2015. Under the new league structure(s), whatever it/they may be, the values for the selection parameters for the Western teams may differ quite a bit. For example, if St. Norbert is “forced” into schedule with a significantly lower SOS, their overall record may be better than now but lagging far behind Manhattanville in the coveted SOS measure. This of course would not be applicable in a situation where the current NCHA is “renamed” to be the WIAC. But then again, a LOT can change in just a few short years, so who the heck knows what may happen by then!

At the end of the season, it will be interesting to perform the same analysis to see if there indeed would be any difference in the field. Our DIII world just never stops spinning...

[AldenPartridge1819]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

http://d3hockey.com/Bracketology/Men_11-12/feb-22

Interesting...


Josh has a 7/4 split:

First Round

3W St. Thomas @ 2W St. Scholastica

5E Elmira @ 4W Adrian

7E Plymouth State @ 6E Wentworth



Quarterfinals

St. Thomas/St. Scholastica @ 1W St. Norbert

Elmira/Adrian @ 1E Oswego

Plymouth/Wentworth @ 2E Norwich

4E Plattsburgh @ 3E Amherst