Tournament Speculation Thread

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Are the NCAA rankings released on Monday or Tuesday?

Tuesday.

Expect Oswego to be #1 followed closely by Norwich and then after that either Amherst or Plattsburgh. After that its a crap shoot.

This is just my guess. I have absolutely no inside knowledge and I am mainly going off the work Josh has done on the other site.

[nysportsfan29]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Expect Oswego to be #1 followed closely by Norwich and then after that either Amherst or Plattsburgh. After that its a crap shoot.

The PairWise between Oswego and Norwich is pretty much a toss-up. The Lakers take win % by less than a percentage point (.0085) whereas Norwich wins common opponents with a 3-0-1 record to Oswego's 3-0-2.

The site isn't awarding the Lakers a point for SOS because the edge is barely a third of a percent (.0035).

Since they appear to be so close right now, would it have been better for Norwich to lose to Castleton on Saturday than to Skidmore? Isn't a loss against a ranked team (which Castleton should be) better than one to a non-ranked team such as Skidmore? Or is the win over a ranked team better even if it means taking a loss to Skidmore?

I understand that this is the epitome of speculation right here, but am curious what some of the more experienced and informed - when it comes to tournament prognosticating - think.

[jerrynu26]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

The PairWise between Oswego and Norwich is pretty much a toss-up. The Lakers take win % by less than a percentage point (.0085) whereas Norwich wins common opponents with a 3-0-1 record to Oswego's 3-0-2.

The site isn't awarding the Lakers a point for SOS because the edge is barely a third of a percent (.0035).

Since they appear to be so close right now, would it have been better for Norwich to lose to Castleton on Saturday than to Skidmore? Isn't a loss against a ranked team (which Castleton should be) better than one to a non-ranked team such as Skidmore? Or is the win over a ranked team better even if it means taking a loss to Skidmore?

I understand that this is the epitome of speculation right here, but am curious what some of the more experienced and informed - when it comes to tournament prognosticating - think.

One of the secondary (or wherever) criteria is record against RANKED opponents, so those games you want/need to win. For everything else, a loss is pretty much just a loss, no matter whom it is too. (Please note, this is just a generalization, there can be some slight differences. And as noted below, the ONLY rankings used for this start coming out this week.)

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

The PairWise between Oswego and Norwich is pretty much a toss-up. The Lakers take win % by less than a percentage point (.0085) whereas Norwich wins common opponents with a 3-0-1 record to Oswego's 3-0-2.

The site isn't awarding the Lakers a point for SOS because the edge is barely a third of a percent (.0035).

Since they appear to be so close right now, would it have been better for Norwich to lose to Castleton on Saturday than to Skidmore? Isn't a loss against a ranked team (which Castleton should be) better than one to a non-ranked team such as Skidmore? Or is the win over a ranked team better even if it means taking a loss to Skidmore?

I understand that this is the epitome of speculation right here, but am curious what some of the more experienced and informed - when it comes to tournament prognosticating - think.

A win/loss over a ranked team is much more important than a win/loss over a non-ranked team.

More than likely Skidmore and UMass-Boston won't be ranked, so that means Norwich will have an unbeatable record vs. ranked teams.

Meanwhile, Oswego's losses are to Utica and Neumann, which will both definitely be ranked. Norwich will win that category. Is it enough to overcome Oswego's massive strength of schedule edge though and winning percentage edge?

We'll see....

[altazo]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Friday night is a HUGE game for Plattsburgh, and we will find out just how huge come Tuesday. If Plattsburgh wins Friday night (and Saturday), I don't think anyone else will claim a Pool C spot over them (except Oswego and Norwich and rightfully so). However, if Plattsburgh was to lose Friday night and then again in the SUNYACS its a big question mark now after losing to Brockport. If Plattsburgh splits (or worse gets sweept) this weekend and Amherst sweeps, there could be a clear case for Amherst over Plattsburgh. Again I think it will come down to WHO is ranked. No ofense to the West (ECAC and NCHA) but I don't forsee them overtaking any teams (Norwich, Oswego, Plattsburgh, Amherst, Elmira, Castleton) to gain a spot. St.Thomas? I want to be sold but I just can't yet.

My Top 10/12 depending on what happens this weekend

1. Norwich **
2. Oswego **
3. Plattsburgh/Amherst **
4. Elmira
5. SNC **
6. St.Thomas **
7. Castleton
8. Manhatanville
9. Utica
10. UWRF/NCHA Runner Up (going to have 4 more wins)

Again right now its all speculation on who the ranked teams will be. A team left out or put in could really help or hurt a teams chance.

Only the NCHA quarter finals are a two game series. The semis and the final are single games. So, the league runner up is going to end up with only 3 more wins, not 4. Not sure if this info makes any real difference in your assessment however...

[AldenPartridge1819]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Only the NCHA quarter finals are a two game series. The semis and the final are single games. So, the league runner up is going to end up with only 3 more wins, not 4. Not sure if this info makes any real difference in your assessment however...

The league runner-up could actually end up with only one more win if they tied both before the mini-game. Unlikely, but...

[hawk]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

I not sure how the Norwich/Oswego rating will shake out but I would be most concerned about is facing Plattsburgh in the quarterfinal or earlier round. And for whatever season Norwich always seems to play Plattsburgh. Although most of the NCAA playoff teams are capable of beating each other, Plattsburgh defensive system and good goaltending make them a very difficult team to face. Elmira or Manhattanville are another couple of outstanding teams.

[NUProf]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

A win/loss over a ranked team is much more important than a win/loss over a non-ranked team.

More than likely Skidmore and UMass-Boston won't be ranked, so that means Norwich will have an unbeatable record vs. ranked teams.

Meanwhile, Oswego's losses are to Utica and Neumann, which will both definitely be ranked. Norwich will win that category. Is it enough to overcome Oswego's massive strength of schedule edge though and winning percentage edge?

We'll see....

Actually, assuming USCHO has calculated SOS correctly, the difference in SOS between Norwich and Oswego in SOS is minimal Oswego at 0.5151 and Norwich at 0.5116. That comes about because Norwich wins in OWP and Oswego wins in OOWP. With the 2/3 1/3 weighting, it comes out a difference of 0.0035. That is anything but a massive advantage. Norwich's edge in RNK could carry the day. It's a coin flip. Swap the wins/loses this weekend and it would be a different story.

[93GreatLaker]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Actually, assuming USCHO has calculated SOS correctly, the difference in SOS between Norwich and Oswego in SOS is minimal Oswego at 0.5151 and Norwich at 0.5116. That comes about because Norwich wins in OWP and Oswego wins in OOWP. With the 2/3 1/3 weighting, it comes out a difference of 0.0035. That is anything but a massive advantage. Norwich's edge in RNK could carry the day. It's a coin flip. Swap the wins/loses this weekend and it would be a different story.

Norwich will also win the record vs. common opponent comparison against Oswego. Even if the Lakers win out they will not beat Norwich in that category (thank you Morrisville).

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Actually, assuming USCHO has calculated SOS correctly, the difference in SOS between Norwich and Oswego in SOS is minimal Oswego at 0.5151 and Norwich at 0.5116. That comes about because Norwich wins in OWP and Oswego wins in OOWP. With the 2/3 1/3 weighting, it comes out a difference of 0.0035. That is anything but a massive advantage. Norwich's edge in RNK could carry the day. It's a coin flip. Swap the wins/loses this weekend and it would be a different story.

I must have been looking at the wrong numbers or mixing the women and men's up there because I thought Oswego had a big edge there.

[bakdraft21]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

I not sure how the Norwich/Oswego rating will shake out but I would be most concerned about is facing Plattsburgh in the quarterfinal or earlier round. And for whatever season Norwich always seems to play Plattsburgh. Although most of the NCAA playoff teams are capable of beating each other, Plattsburgh defensive system and good goaltending make them a very difficult team to face. Elmira or Manhattanville are another couple of outstanding teams.

I agree with Hawk BIG time, these teams we speak of are capable of beating each other on any given night......

[norm1909]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Just some fact$:

The 2009-10 NCAA Men's Ice Hockey Championship cost the NCAA $246,042, for 2010-11 they budgeted $314,180 but spent $345,336 (a difference of $31,156).
For 2011-12, their budget is $319,280.

[jerrynu26]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Just some fact$:

The 2009-10 NCAA Men's Ice Hockey Championship cost the NCAA $246,042, for 2010-11 they budgeted $314,180 but spent $345,336 (a difference of $31,156).
For 2011-12, their budget is $319,280.

Not a business major among them.

[AldenPartridge1819]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

East:
1) Oswego
2) Norwich
3) Amherst
4) Plattsburgh
5) Elmira
6) Manhattanville
7) Plymouth
8) Curry

West:
1) St. Norbert
2) St. Thomas
3) Adrian

Now, based on the new official rankings and if every leader wins and what we know the NCAA does with travel...

Play-ins:
Elmira @ Adrian
Curry @ Plattsburgh
Plymouth @ Manhattanville

Quarters:
St. Thomas @ SNC
Adrian/Elmira @ Oswego
Plymouth/Manhattanville @ Norwich
Curry/Plattsburgh @ Amherst


It's a killer for Plattsburgh to be ranked 4th. Play-in game then on the road for the quarters.

[Ozz]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Elmira would travel Adrian...