The Completely Unofficial Pre-Pre-Season Polls - 2011-2012 Edition

[Transplanted Tiger Fan]

Alright DIII Fans... time to wake up! It's that time of the year, and with much verbiage copied from last year's thread... here we go again! Labor Day has passed, and that can only mean one thing... time to break-out:


The Completely Unofficial Pre-Pre-Season Polls Thread!

You know the drill, or at least you should by now. It’s simple, just rank the pre-season top-10 (yes, 10!), and you will be scored on how well you picked 'em, in a method that is (as always) completely void of any statistical merit! No prizes awarded, other than pride. (Yes, I still owe some of you beverages!)

Like prior years, the scores will be tallied once the offical USCHO poll comes-out, which is typically mid-October. Then, I’ll go through the same scoring exercise mid-season and at the end of the year as well.

So without further delay...
The Method to the Madness
What is required of you is simple, just post your top 10 (again - yes, 10... I am 'old school'! You can do 15 if you wish, but only the top 10 will be used for scoring purposes), and the scoring is performed as follows:


Points For Your Pick
Your pick positions are assigned a point value, called "Points for Your Pick" (PFYP).
First Place Pick - 10pts
Second Place Pick - 9pts
Third Place Pick - 8pts
...
Tenth Place Pick - 1pt

Position Points
Once the Official USCHO Pre-Season Poll is announced, "Position Points" (PP) are calculated for each of your picks based upon the Official Poll Points (OPPts) the respective team received in the Official Poll. Each of your picks that appear in the Official Pre-Season Poll will receive Position Points according to the following:

(Points For Your Pick / 10) * Official Poll Points

And these will be added together to obtain a Position Points Total (PPT).

Accuracy Factor
How well did you position your picks will also come into play, by determining an Accuracy Factory (AF). This is calculated for each of your picks by taking Your Pick Position (YPP) [1-10], and weighing it against the Official USCHO Pre-Season Poll Position (OPPos).

The value for OPPos is between 1 and the maximum number of positions in the poll. If a team in your picks fails to make the Official Poll (at any position), it is assigned a default OPPos of 33. The formula for calculating the Accuracy Factor for each of your picks is:

(1 / (1 + ABS(YPP - OPPos))) * 10

Your Total Score
Your Total Score takes into account the Sum of your Accuracy Factors (AFT), and your Total Position Points (PPT) as follows:

(AFT / 100) * PPT

"It's just that simple".

A Few "Rules" (for lack of a better term):
Ties, in either posted listings or the Official USCHO Polls, will be handled by assigning the respective positions based upon their as-listed positions in the post/Poll. The tied team listed on the "higher-side" of the post/Poll will have the higher ranking.

In the event of multiple posts (entries), the first chronological post will be used in scoring, and the subsequent post, well... ignored.


So start ranking the teams, post your "top-tens", and I'll crank-out the results once the Official USCHO Pre-Season Poll is announced (mid-season and end-of-season too). Good luck, and Happy Pickin'!

Cheers!!!

[NorthernLite]

Re: The Completely Unofficial Pre-Pre-Season Polls - 2011-2012 Edition

......actually this might be closer to what it'll look like at the end of the season.

SNC
Norwich
Adrian.........we'll be back
Oswego
Elmira
Plattsburgh
Castleton
Wisc-Superior
Manhattanville
Geneseo

[bakdraft21]

Re: The Completely Unofficial Pre-Pre-Season Polls - 2011-2012 Edition

......actually this might be closer to what it'll look like at the end of the season.

SNC
Norwich
Adrian.........we'll be back
Oswego
Elmira
Plattsburgh
Castleton
Wisc-Superior
Manhattanville
Geneseo

Good group for sure.......Utica???...could be the sleeper

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: The Completely Unofficial Pre-Pre-Season Polls - 2011-2012 Edition

Not that it totally matters, but I went through and found out just the Seniors loss and Senior Points loss from the teams mentioned. We still have some transfers, incoming freshman that will contribute, but as you can see some teams will be taking a pretty big hit both point wise and spot wise. On the flip side, look at the ECAC West teams. Only losing 2%, 3%, and 11% of their teams points.

#	TEAM	RECORD	SR. LOST	KEY NAMES	SR PTS	OV PTS	% PTS LOST	KEY RETURNING PLAYERS	NOTES
1	St. Norbert	25-4-1	11	O'Brien, Tabisz, Pulak	103	277	37%	Keefer, Ryd, Soley	Top 4 Scorers Return
2	Adrian	25-4-1	17	Skelly, Miller, Fogal	291	405	72%	Graham, Watts	Only 3 of Top 10 Return
3	Norwich	22-6-3	2	Anderson, Eskedjian	60	339	18%	Schroeder, Cotnoir	Top 3 Scorers Return
4	Oswego	23-5-0	7	Fox, Huinink, Mallaro	93	308	30%	Boots, Whitelaw, Beckwith	5 of Top 6 Return
5	Plattsburgh	20-8-1	5	Satim, Clarke Corry	107	296	36%	Jensen, Craig, Leis	Loss 15 Off Of 2011 Roster (41% of Points)
6	Elmira	17-7-4	4	Linden, Schrank	29	271	11%	Willer, Vaillancourt, McDonald	Top 3 Scoreres will be Seniors
7	Bowdoin	19-8-1	6	Shearer-Hardy, Fanning	109	311	35%	Weiniger, Downey, Lalor	Only 3 Regular Sr's
8	Hamline	17-7-5	9	Berenguer, Kupperman	145	259	56%	Arrigoni, VanGlider	5 of Top 7 Are gone
9	Castleton	22-4-1	2	Stefan, Lafrance	49	340	14%	Harris, Alonzo, Cinotti	1 Sr in top 20
10	Neumann	14-9-5	2	Bianchini, Rodell	7	221	3%	Rey, Lacasse, MacKinnon	1 Sr in top 20 (14)
11	Wisconsin-Superior	16-13-1	4	Berlando, Isley	47	224	21%	Faryna, Dalbec, Forsythe	4 of Top 5 Returning Will be SO
12	Geneseo	16-8-2	6	Rygiel, Elliott	26	263	10%	Vit, Redlick, Gershon	Top 8 Return
13	Williams	16-8-3	7	Contini, Masucci, Olvany	113	250	45%	Rubino, Wickman, Purdy	3 of top 4 Are Gone
14	Milwaukee School of	21-6-1	4	Soik, Humphries	32	286	11%	Keizer, Krupa, Toomey	1 Sr In Top 10 (4)
15	Utica	17-8-1	2	Timkey	5	261	2%	Coffman, Chlanda, Smith	Seniors Played In 27 games Combined

[bakdraft21]

Re: The Completely Unofficial Pre-Pre-Season Polls - 2011-2012 Edition

Not that it totally matters, but I went through and found out just the Seniors loss and Senior Points loss from the teams mentioned. We still have some transfers, incoming freshman that will contribute, but as you can see some teams will be taking a pretty big hit both point wise and spot wise. On the flip side, look at the ECAC West teams. Only losing 2%, 3%, and 11% of their teams points.

#	TEAM	RECORD	SR. LOST	KEY NAMES	SR PTS	OV PTS	% PTS LOST	KEY RETURNING PLAYERS	NOTES
1	St. Norbert	25-4-1	11	O'Brien, Tabisz, Pulak	103	277	37%	Keefer, Ryd, Soley	Top 4 Scorers Return
2	Adrian	25-4-1	17	Skelly, Miller, Fogal	291	405	72%	Graham, Watts	Only 3 of Top 10 Return
3	Norwich	22-6-3	2	Anderson, Eskedjian	60	339	18%	Schroeder, Cotnoir	Top 3 Scorers Return
4	Oswego	23-5-0	7	Fox, Huinink, Mallaro	93	308	30%	Boots, Whitelaw, Beckwith	5 of Top 6 Return
5	Plattsburgh	20-8-1	5	Satim, Clarke Corry	107	296	36%	Jensen, Craig, Leis	Loss 15 Off Of 2011 Roster (41% of Points)
6	Elmira	17-7-4	4	Linden, Schrank	29	271	11%	Willer, Vaillancourt, McDonald	Top 3 Scoreres will be Seniors
7	Bowdoin	19-8-1	6	Shearer-Hardy, Fanning	109	311	35%	Weiniger, Downey, Lalor	Only 3 Regular Sr's
8	Hamline	17-7-5	9	Berenguer, Kupperman	145	259	56%	Arrigoni, VanGlider	5 of Top 7 Are gone
9	Castleton	22-4-1	2	Stefan, Lafrance	49	340	14%	Harris, Alonzo, Cinotti	1 Sr in top 20
10	Neumann	14-9-5	2	Bianchini, Rodell	7	221	3%	Rey, Lacasse, MacKinnon	1 Sr in top 20 (14)
11	Wisconsin-Superior	16-13-1	4	Berlando, Isley	47	224	21%	Faryna, Dalbec, Forsythe	4 of Top 5 Returning Will be SO
12	Geneseo	16-8-2	6	Rygiel, Elliott	26	263	10%	Vit, Redlick, Gershon	Top 8 Return
13	Williams	16-8-3	7	Contini, Masucci, Olvany	113	250	45%	Rubino, Wickman, Purdy	3 of top 4 Are Gone
14	Milwaukee School of	21-6-1	4	Soik, Humphries	32	286	11%	Keizer, Krupa, Toomey	1 Sr In Top 10 (4)
15	Utica	17-8-1	2	Timkey	5	261	2%	Coffman, Chlanda, Smith	Seniors Played In 27 games Combined

that was a reason why I put in the utica post %2...1 senior lost......a GREAT European vacation as well which couldnt hurt, as I said there skates will still be wet when they get bak to pink fluffy bunny practice..

[collegehcky2]

Re: The Completely Unofficial Pre-Pre-Season Polls - 2011-2012 Edition

I think there will be about 5 teams in the East that will really distance themselves from the rest of the region skill wise. Unfortunately they're going to beat each other up this season.

[Transplanted Tiger Fan]

Re: The Completely Unofficial Pre-Pre-Season Polls - 2011-2012 Edition

......actually this might be closer to what it'll look like at the end of the season.

This reminds me... there is no clear objective in-place that dictates how your poll is to be entered. You can either do “The Prez Method” and attempt to get into the heads of the Pollsters (::shivers at the thought:, or you can try to channel the wisdom of your elders and go for the prestigious “Nostradamus Award “ (as NorthernLite did, and a few others as well... including myself) and attempt to predict how the teams will stack-up at the end of the year. It all depends on when you want your fame (or shame) to occur. But only one entry per person, please (unless, of course, you have a split personality, errr... alias!).

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: The Completely Unofficial Pre-Pre-Season Polls - 2011-2012 Edition

I think there will be about 5 teams in the East that will really distance themselves from the rest of the region skill wise. Unfortunately they're going to beat each other up this season.

Hmm you wouldn't be talking about Elmira, Norwich, Utica, Oswego and Plattsburgh would you?

[collegehcky2]

Re: The Completely Unofficial Pre-Pre-Season Polls - 2011-2012 Edition

Hmm you wouldn't be talking about Elmira, Norwich, Utica, Oswego and Plattsburgh would you?

Try again.

[jabathegut]

Re: The Completely Unofficial Pre-Pre-Season Polls - 2011-2012 Edition

i would like to add Westfield State University to the poll. New team, new attitude and plenty of reason to be optimistic this year. Brilliant recruiting and new uniforms to boot.

GO Owles

[PSUChamps2001]

i would like to add Westfield State University to the poll. New team, new attitude and plenty of reason to be optimistic this year. Brilliant recruiting and new uniforms to boot.

GO Owles

Do you want to add Plymouth State too.......

[UNHHurstFan]

Re: The Completely Unofficial Pre-Pre-Season Polls - 2011-2012 Edition

Hmm you wouldn't be talking about Elmira, Norwich, Utica, Oswego and Plattsburgh would you?

I'd look to see Castleton State as one of those five to distance themselves from the pack.

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: The Completely Unofficial Pre-Pre-Season Polls - 2011-2012 Edition

Try again.

Utica is going to be right there IMHO. Castleton or Manhattanville?

[collegehcky2]

Re: The Completely Unofficial Pre-Pre-Season Polls - 2011-2012 Edition

I'd look to see Castleton State as one of those five to distance themselves from the pack.

Ding ding ding we have a winner!

Prez, as long as Utica has Heenan behind the bench I have my reservations about them becoming an upper tier team. I think they'll be very good this year, but we've said that before and they haven't been able to make the jump.

And Manhattanville's fall from grace last year really puzzled me, so I'm not confident they're going to be all that great.

As an aside, I think Hobart will be an interesting case this year. How they'll replace Matt Wallace will be interesting. When he wasn't playing last year they really struggled.

[sshablak]

Re: The Completely Unofficial Pre-Pre-Season Polls - 2011-2012 Edition

I know nothing about Heenan's abilities ...but.... 16 sophmores back...including goalies...with any frosh impact players and a great schedule, 75% at home in front of 3000 plus ev game, how can they NOT be better ?