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Thread: 2019-20 pwr

  1. #1

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    2019-20 pwr

    Can be found here:
    https://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairw...ngs/d-iii-men/

    Interesting, but its way to early to get excited. Keep posting discussion here.

  2. #2
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    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    At this point, it is foolish to even pay any attention to this metric. Until there is more connectivity in the competion graph, the teams with insular schedule are getting a huge boost..
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  3. #3
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    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    Quote Originally Posted by NUProf View Post
    At this point, it is foolish to even pay any attention to this metric. Until there is more connectivity in the competion graph, the teams with insular schedule are getting a huge boost..
    Yeah, there are too few cross-over games at the D-3 level for either the PWR (or it's twin, the RPI) to mean much...

    Yet, that's far better than the smoky-room BS, and we still have the far superior option of employing the KRACH.

    (If only.)

    Last edited by Fishman'81; 12-25-2019 at 08:28 PM.

  4. #4
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    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    Quote Originally Posted by NUProf View Post
    At this point, it is foolish to even pay any attention to this metric. Until there is more connectivity in the competion graph, the teams with insular schedule are getting a huge boost..
    Well, too be fair, the only teams with insular schedules who are getting a boost are the better teams in weak conferences. The top-to-bottom stronger conferences tend to eat their own young.
    Last edited by Fishman'81; 12-25-2019 at 08:35 PM.

  5. #5
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    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    Quote Originally Posted by Fishman'81 View Post
    Well, too be fair, the only teams with insular schedules who are getting a boost are the better teams in weak conferences. The top-to-bottom stronger conferences tend to eat their own young.
    Explain to me why you think Ken's metric is so superior. Give me a reason for your faith in this measurement. The lack of schedule connectivity creates problem with that metric as well. When the only path connecting two teams has a bridge, comparisons will not be reliable. Ken's metric is no better or worse than the RPI, only different with similar flaws for similar reasons.
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  6. #6
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    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    Quote Originally Posted by NUProf View Post
    Explain to me why you think Ken's metric is so superior. Give me a reason for your faith in this measurement. The lack of schedule connectivity creates problem with that metric as well. When the only path connecting two teams has a bridge, comparisons will not be reliable. Ken's metric is no better or worse than the RPI, only different with similar flaws for similar reasons.
    The KRACH is simply a better predictor of results than the PWR/RPI.

  7. #7
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    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    Quote Originally Posted by Fishman'81 View Post
    The KRACH is simply a better predictor of results than the PWR/RPI.
    On what basis do you make that claim? That's my question to you. It has flaws that are similar to the RPI and for the same reasons. Comparisons between the two regions are flawed with both metrics because the small number of E/W games gives the results of those games that are played excessively heavy influence in determining the comparisons between the two regions.
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  8. #8
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    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    Quote Originally Posted by NUProf View Post
    On what basis do you make that claim? That's my question to you. It has flaws that are similar to the RPI and for the same reasons. Comparisons between the two regions are flawed with both metrics because the small number of E/W games gives the results of those games that are played excessively heavy influence in determining the comparisons between the two regions.
    I understand that. There is a serious dearth of comparative D-3 data in many, many cases. None of the available metrics have a lot of grist for the mill at this level.

    But the KRACH has just held more water for years now, and that's clear. Certainly it's the best metric of the three, and you can look that up over the past several years.
    Last edited by Fishman'81; 12-28-2019 at 09:04 PM.

  9. #9
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    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    I am asking for a quantitative explanation as to why you keep saying that "KRACH has just held more water for years now." Is there evidence based data that shows that? I have read claims like that with no supporting documentation at all for years.
    Last edited by NUProf; 12-29-2019 at 03:46 PM.
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  10. #10
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    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    Quote Originally Posted by NUProf View Post
    I am asking for a quantitative explanation as to why you keep saying that "KRACH has just held more water for years now." Is there evidence based data that shows that? I have read claims like that with no supporting documentation at all for years.
    Well, you can look up how well the KRACH has predicted outcomes vs. how the PW has, if you like... I have a ball-game to watch. ( And I haven't kept a log, but I'm completely confident that it has.)

    And, as an aside, do you actually believe that the PWR is a more thorough metric? Please. Of course you don't. The KRACH employs far more data, and you know that. "Statistical regression", as you you used to say all the time.

    Now, you're a PW guy? Come on.
    Last edited by Fishman'81; 12-29-2019 at 11:53 PM.

  11. #11
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    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    The fact its just the two of you bantering here is all anyone needs to know....

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  12. #12
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    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    Quote Originally Posted by LakerEagleLover View Post
    The fact its just the two of you bantering here is all anyone needs to know....
    True enough.

    This D-3 thread is fairly moribund, and I seriously doubt that uscho itself will even continue to exist at all, three years down the road.

    It was fun while it lasted, though.

    But it has to be said that Prof attempts to prey on the general ignorance of the population, even on this humble forum.
    Last edited by Fishman'81; 01-01-2020 at 11:07 PM.

  13. #13

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    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    The "way to early" 2020 NCAA field looks like this.
    First the Pool A 1st place teams. Their PWR ranking is included in ()

    CCC - Univ. of New England (15)
    MASCAC - Plymouth State (57)
    MIAC - Augsburg (24)
    NCHA - Lake Forest (2)
    NEHC - Norwich (3)
    NESCAC - Trinity (1)
    SUNYAC - Oswego (31)
    UCHC - Wilkes (7)

    The remaining 4 teams are the highest remaining teams in the PWR
    1 Trinity 83 10-1-0 0.9091 1 0.6514* 1
    2 Lake Forest 82 13-2-1 0.8438 3 0.6241* 2
    3 Norwich 81 12-2-1 0.8333 4 0.6224* 3
    4 Canton 80 8-2-2 0.7500 11 0.6043* 4
    5 UW-Eau Claire 79 11-2-1 0.8214 6 0.5977* 5
    6 Utica 78 10-2-2 0.7857 7 0.5954* 6
    7 Elmira 76 9-3-1 0.7308 13 0.5934* 7

    7 Wilkes 76 11-2-0 0.8462 2 0.5930* 8
    9 Babson 75 8-3-2 0.6923 18 0.5906 9
    10 Hobart 73 10-3-2 0.7333 12 0.5902* 10
    10 Geneseo 73 12-3-1 0.7812 8 0.5866* 11
    12 UW-Superior 72 12-2-1 0.8333 4 0.5829* 12

    Seeding the tournament
    1 Trinity
    2 Lake Forest
    3 Norwich
    4 Canton
    5 Eau Claire
    6 Utica
    7 Elmira
    8 Wilkes
    9 Univ. of New England
    10 Augsburg
    11 Oswego
    12 Plymouth State

    I'll do another one in a week.
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