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Thread: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

  1. #301
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

    Quote Originally Posted by Handyman View Post
    Dont forget "Educated vs. Moron" and "Gay and Committed vs. Likes to Get Peed on By Hookers".
    Gut laugh

  2. #302
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

    Basically itís just peter thiel now, right?

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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

    Quote Originally Posted by Handyman View Post
    This is bad news for Biden...everyone finally realized there is a better Centrist candidate with none of the baggage. I am not sure though it will mean anything because I dont see him doing good outside the Midwest. That could make him very valuable later on.

    I would have no issue with voting for him though.
    I'm not sure Buttigieg winning Iowa, if he does in fact do so, has any legs either. He still has zero presence in the Super Tuesday states where the lion's share of delegates have been awarded. There's a reason why we don't talk about President Harkin or President Santorum after all.
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

    Quote Originally Posted by Rover View Post
    I'm not sure Buttigieg winning Iowa, if he does in fact do so, has any legs either. He still has zero presence in the Super Tuesday states where the lion's share of delegates have been awarded. There's a reason why we don't talk about President Harkin or President Santorum after all.
    There are 26 days between IA and Super Tuesday. There is some time for a hot candidate to build support, especially if attachment is squishy. I doubt very many voters right now are irrevocably devoted to a given candidate, and Pete is the poster boy for "everybody's second choice." Centrists (policy) and Liberals (identity) can each find reasons to get behind him. If he wins IA the Hate Machine will go into overdrive and he'll begin to get a lot of enthusiastic support in reaction to their predictably bigoted and ignorant attacks.

    Pete needs to start preaching from this text. He needs to openly court the white working class who were f-cked by the Republicans starting with Reagan. He needs to call out elitism (this is me talking, remember) and he needs to call for a New Deal for white poor and lower middle class families. Because here's the beauty of it: you can't raise the white poor without raising all the poor. We can bring inequality back into the national debate by letting Pete put a white face on it.

    Pete could enact Bernie's agenda on taxes and health care and be applauded by the white poor.
    Last edited by Kepler; Today at 11:16 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rover View Post
    I'm not sure Buttigieg winning Iowa, if he does in fact do so, has any legs either. He still has zero presence in the Super Tuesday states where the lion's share of delegates have been awarded. There's a reason why we don't talk about President Harkin or President Santorum after all.
    Did give us Obama, though.

  6. #306
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

    Quote Originally Posted by Rover View Post
    I'm not sure Buttigieg winning Iowa, if he does in fact do so, has any legs either. He still has zero presence in the Super Tuesday states where the lion's share of delegates have been awarded. There's a reason why we don't talk about President Harkin or President Santorum after all.
    No but a bad defeat could be serious trouble for Biden. If he isnt winning over Midwestern voters early they arent going to support him later. He has his base of support and if Pete can chip away at that even a little Biden is toast. A Pete victory (or second place) in Iowa wont guarantee him the nomination or anything, but it will be a troubling sign for Biden unless he can turn it around in New Hampshire. (which he wont)
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

    Quote Originally Posted by Handyman View Post
    No but a bad defeat could be serious trouble for Biden.
    That would be bad for him but I doubt it will happen. He's currently in a four-way tie with Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg. There are a lot of institutional reasons why his support has a hard floor (de facto DNC Deep State and rich donor support). Though he could slip to 4th, which looks bad, in a 22/21/20/19 type of split.
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

    Biden and Sanders have more slack to weather an early defeat because they're already well known candidates. Buttigieg doesn't seem to be contesting NH so if he wins IA that's great, but somebody else winning NH sorta blunts that, then its NV and then SC. You could have 4 different winners in 4 different states.

    I'll also say that for momentum's sake neither Sanders nor Warren can afford to finish behind Biden in NH. Its not fatal if they finish 1-2 but if one of them slips to 3rd place, or if god forbid Biden WINS NH, they're screwed.

    EDIT: The primary calendar: https://www.uspresidentialelectionne...dule-calendar/
    Last edited by Rover; Today at 11:53 AM.
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

    Prior primary results may have less impact and less momentum now. It used to be they were basically the only reports, so they became extraordinarily important forward. But the news cycle now means the results of Tuesday will have been buried by five other stories by the weekend. I just don't think they have the same punch.

    If true, this is very good news, because it means the I'm sure very fine people of IA and NH, who look nothing like most of the country, no longer get a big say in the nomination.

    I look forward to the day when we have 4 or 5 regional primaries and the schedule is randomized from cycle to cycle. That way the candidates can campaign within a smaller area, they can refine their messaging to a region while balancing national considerations, and they can prepare better for the general election.
    Last edited by Kepler; Today at 12:01 PM.
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    That would be bad for him but I doubt it will happen. He's currently in a four-way tie with Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg. There are a lot of institutional reasons why his support has a hard floor (de facto DNC Deep State and rich donor support). Though he could slip to 4th, which looks bad, in a 22/21/20/19 type of split.
    He is in a 3 way tie...all of them well behind Pete. Pete is well up on the field in this poll.

    Since September, Buttigieg has risen 16 percentage points among Iowa’s likely Democratic caucusgoers, with 25% now saying he is their first choice for president. For the first time in the Register’s Iowa Poll, he bests rivals Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who are now clustered in competition for second place and about 10 percentage points behind the South Bend, Indiana, mayor.
    There is no way to spin that as good for Biden. Warren and Sanders will make that up in NH but Biden is probably looking at 3rd there. If Biden underperforms in Iowa and NH the vultures will start circling.

    I am not saying Pete will win (I dont think he has any shot for sustained success) but he is the best chance to slow Biden down enough to let a better candidate win. As I said 3 months ago Pete is the most powerful person in the election right now.
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

    If Biden gets like fourth in Iowa heís screwed, his entire campaign is based on his electability and ability to beat Trump. That narrative takes a giant hit if that happens.

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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

    Quote Originally Posted by trixR4kids View Post
    If Biden gets like fourth in Iowa heís screwed, his entire campaign is based on his electability and ability to beat Trump. That narrative takes a giant hit if that happens.
    He could survive it if he can rebound in NH. I cant see that happening against Warren and Sanders though.

    We will see though...lots of moving parts.
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    Quote Originally Posted by trixR4kids View Post
    If Biden gets like fourth in Iowa heís screwed, his entire campaign is based on his electability and ability to beat Trump. That narrative takes a giant hit if that happens.
    But Sanders finishing second to Hillary didn't negate his electability, amirite?

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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto


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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

    Quote Originally Posted by unofan View Post
    But Sanders finishing second to Hillary didn't negate his electability, amirite?
    Sanders is GOD, Biden is not.

    Did I get that right trix?
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

    Nice.

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