ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

[sshablak]

1 Clarkson
2 Cornell
3 Harvard
4 Dart
5 Q-Pac
6 Yale
7 Gate
8 Union
9 P-ton
10 RPI
11 Brown
12 SLU

[BIG Green]

1. Big Red
2. Q
3. Harvaard
4. BIG Green
5. Clarkson
6. Brown
7. Yale
8. Union
9. RPI
10. Princeton
11. Colgate
12. St. L

[DrDemento]

This will be a joint DrDemento and JennyRN entry as we pretty much agree on everything these days!

1. Clarkson
2. Cornell
3. Harvard
4. Quinnipiac
5. Yale
6. Dartmouth
7. Rensselaer
8. Union
9. Brown
10. Princeton
11. Colgate
12. St. Lawrence

[johnk]

Clarkson
Harvard
Cornell
Yale
Quinnipiac
RPI
Union
Dartmouth
Brown
Princeton
Colgate
SLU

[Ralph Baer]

This will be a joint DrDemento and JennyRN entry as we pretty much agree on everything these days!

1. Clarkson
2. Cornell
3. Harvard
4. Quinnipiac
5. Yale
6. Dartmouth
7. Rensselaer
8. Union
9. Brown
10. Princeton
11. Colgate
12. St. Lawrence

I suspect that Jenny forgot her password.

[lugnut92]

Three hours to go! Not going to spam the other threads, just bumping this to the top one last time.

---

Here are the statistics so far (not including the Random Number and Dr. Last Year; n=41):

Team       | Mean±SD  | Median(Range) |
---------------------------------------
Cornell    |  1.5±0.7 |   1   ( 1- 3) |
Clarkson   |  2.4±1.2 |   2   ( 1- 5) |
Quinnipiac |  3.0±1.2 |   3   ( 1- 5) |
Harvard    |  3.8±1.2 |   4   ( 1- 7) |
Dartmouth  |  5.3±1.6 |   5   ( 1- 8) |
Yale       |  5.9±1.5 |   6   ( 2- 9) |
RPI        |  7.8±1.9 |   8   ( 1-12) |
Brown      |  8.1±1.8 |   8   ( 5-12) |
Union      |  8.9±1.6 |   9   ( 4-12) |
Colgate    |  9.6±2.0 |  10   ( 5-12) |
Princeton  | 10.3±1.3 |  10   ( 7-12) |
SLU        | 11.2±1.0 |  11   ( 9-12) |

[SnowDogFlyer]

1. Clarkson
2. Cornell
3. Quinnipiac
4. Dartmouth
5. Harvard
6. Brown
7. RPI
8. Yale
9. Princeton
10. Union
11. Colgate
12. SLU

[NPC19850330]

1. Quinnipiac
2. Cornell
3. Harvard
4. Clarkson
5. Yale
6. Dartmouth
7. RPI
8. Princeton
9. Brown
10. Union
11. Colgate
12. SLU

[DrDemento]

I suspect that Jenny forgot her password.

Nah-she was asked to change it as it had been too long since last usage and it was too old. But she did not feel the need to post anything and we only disagreed on one placing in the list which we talked about and of course she agreed that i would know best (if you believe that last part, i have a nice bridge designed by an RPI boy to sell you over the East River in NYC)!!!

[Kepler]

TBRW, published last month:

1. Harvard 29
2. Cornell 28
3. Quinnipiac 28
4. Clarkson 27
5. Union 25
6. Dartmouth 22
7. Yale 21
8. Brown 21
9. Colgate 18
10. Princeton 17
11. RPI 17
12. SLU 11


Kepler, if I can sneak in:


1. Cor
2. Clk
3. Qpc
4. Hvd

5. Drt
6. Yal
7. Brn
8. Uni

9. Cgt
10. Prn
11. RPI
12. SLU

[lugnut92]

TBRW, published last month:
...
Kepler, if I can sneak in:
...

I'll include the TBRW picks, but unless you can show that your personal picks were recorded somewhere before 10/25, I'll have to say no on those. I'll keep track of them as far as scoring goes, but they won't be included as part of the fan average (not that they'd affect it anyway) and you won't be eligible to win. I hope you understand.

---

Here are the final statistics for all on-time human entries to the contest (not including the Random Number and Dr. Last Year; n=44):

Team       | Mean±SD  | Median(Range) |
---------------------------------------
Cornell    |  1.6±0.7 |   1   ( 1- 3) |
Clarkson   |  2.5±1.3 |   2   ( 1- 5) |
Quinnipiac |  3.0±1.2 |   3   ( 1- 5) |
Harvard    |  3.8±1.2 |   4   ( 1- 7) |
Dartmouth  |  5.3±1.6 |   5   ( 1- 8) |
Yale       |  6.0±1.5 |   6   ( 2- 9) |
RPI        |  7.9±1.9 |   8   ( 1-12) |
Brown      |  8.0±1.7 |   8   ( 5-12) |
Union      |  8.9±1.6 |   9   ( 4-12) |
Colgate    |  9.7±2.0 |  10   ( 5-12) |
Princeton  | 10.2±1.3 |  10   ( 7-12) |
SLU        | 11.3±1.0 |  12   ( 9-12) |

We're all pretty sure that Cornell is going to take first place overall, with them receiving over half (24) of the first place votes and no vote below third place. Colgate actually edged out RPI for being the team with the least consensus (standard deviations of 1.96 and 1.91, respectively.

As with the last few years, no team was picked for every position (RPI was picked everywhere but 2nd-4th), and no position had every team picked (5th place had everyone but Cornell, Princeton, and SLU).

Patronick's selections are nearly identical to the fan average, with only SLU and Princeton swapped at the bottom of the standings. In a repeat of last year, the Random Number is the furthest away from the consensus (as is to be expected), and ColSkate65 is the most unique human poster.

Graphs:

(left: Mean ± SD, right: heat map of votes)

---

Because the tiebreakers (see below) used put Cornell at a heavy disadvantage and thus 10th place, all of our picks are really bad so far, but that will get fixed as ECAC games start being played for real. Dutchman and johnk are currently in the lead and Rjm7272 is bringing up the rear for now. Here are the standings with 127 games to play:

Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
 1    16           Dutchman  216
      44              johnk  216
 3    30           lugnut92  224
 4     4           sezenack  228
 5    15      ecachawkeyfan  232
 6    20   Earl_Leatherland  232
 7     8       techtodenver  240
      43  DrDemento+JennyRN  240
 9    14               Turk  242
      50               TBRW  242
11    24  Bronco Hockey Fan  246
12     6         Ralph Baer  248
      28            bothman  248
14    25   TalonsUpPuckDown  252
15     2        The Coaches  258
16    13          Patronick  260
17    33        Mike Hutter  262
18    22           TchrBill  268
      42          BIG Green  268
20     3          CLKHockey  270
21    39          red133883  274
      48        NPC19850330  274
23    12         Go Puckman  276
      19         GoldenBear  276
      27          GreenBear  276
26     2          The Media  278
      26           Saints#1  278
      35            bothman  278
29    38            apple2k  280
30    17      goldenbriggsy  282
31     9  iowabasedtraveler  284
32    11            kdiff77  286
      47       SnowDogFlyer  286
34     7            drshoen  288
35     5       allnightwong  290
      18             cudmud  290
      23            fr. joe  290
38    34            Rainman  294
39     2  The Random Number  298
       2      Dr. Last Year  298
41    37              sgt12  300
42    32 still an empty net  312
43    41           sshablak  332
44    31           slumulva  348
45    29         ColSkate65  360
46    40            Rjm7272  402
--    50            Kepler*  294

This early in the season, I always have to invent a bunch of tiebreakers to allow discrete rankings. They are as follows: ECAC points, ECAC games played, ECAC goal differential (H2H and vs. top4/8 skipped for being meaningless), overall "points", and overall wins. This doesn't really matter, but we have to do something for now.

[lugnut92]

So many teams played games this weekend! Bothman has taken over the number one spot and all of our scores have improved dramatically! I still wouldn't look too closely at these rankings (every tie had to be broken by goal differential against top 4 opponents, which I don't see remaining a problem), but here they are:

 Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
 1    35            bothman  108
 2     8       techtodenver  110
 3    37              sgt12  114
 4     9  iowabasedtraveler  116
 5    38            apple2k  120
 6    13          Patronick  128
      23            fr. joe  128
 8    15      ecachawkeyfan  132
 9    31           slumulva  134
10    12         Go Puckman  136
      33        Mike Hutter  136
      51    The Fan Average  136
13    44              johnk  142
14     6         Ralph Baer  144
      43  DrDemento+JennyRN  144
      47       SnowDogFlyer  144
17    14               Turk  146
      32 still an empty net  146
19    17      goldenbriggsy  150
20     2          The Media  154
21    25   TalonsUpPuckDown  156
22    30           lugnut92  160
23    41           sshablak  162
24    19         GoldenBear  164
25    22           TchrBill  166
      42          BIG Green  166
27    11            kdiff77  168
28    50               TBRW  172
29    16           Dutchman  174
      27          GreenBear  174
31     3          CLKHockey  176
32    39          red133883  178
33     2        The Coaches  182
       4           sezenack  182
      26           Saints#1  182
36     7            drshoen  190
      29         ColSkate65  190
38     5       allnightwong  192
      18             cudmud  192
40    34            Rainman  200
41    24  Bronco Hockey Fan  202
42    48        NPC19850330  204
43    40            Rjm7272  210
44     2      Dr. Last Year  222
45    20   Earl_Leatherland  234
46     2  The Random Number  310
--    50            Kepler*  170

[MarkEagleUSA]

Bothman has taken over the number one spot and all of our scores have improved dramatically!

 Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
 1    35            bothman  108
 2     8       techtodenver  110
 3    37              sgt12  114
 4     9  iowabasedtraveler  116
 5    28            bothman  120

1st and 5th?

[Earl_Leatherland]

One place ahead of the RandomNumber. Oof!

[lugnut92]

1st and 5th?

Oh jeez, it looks like he revised his picks and I completely failed to notice. That's on me. Only the later pick (post#35) will be considered in the rankings, and I'll edit the above post right now.

[Ralph Baer]

Oh jeez, it looks like he revised his picks and I completely failed to notice. That's on me. Only the later pick (post#35) will be considered in the rankings, and I'll edit the above post right now.

Bothman can't use both?

[bothman]

Oh jeez, it looks like he revised his picks and I completely failed to notice. That's on me. Only the later pick (post#35) will be considered in the rankings, and I'll edit the above post right now.

Sorry about that. Yes - the later one is the right one. I probably should have deleted my earlier post, but was afraid you might have already captured it.

[lugnut92]

Sorry about that. Yes - the later one is the right one. I probably should have deleted my earlier post, but was afraid you might have already captured it.

No, you did exactly the right thing, I just didn't notice that you'd made a second post.

[Kepler]

I'll include the TBRW picks, but unless you can show that your personal picks were recorded somewhere before 10/25, I'll have to say no on those. I'll keep track of them as far as scoring goes, but they won't be included as part of the fan average (not that they'd affect it anyway) and you won't be eligible to win. I hope you understand.

That's totally fair, thank you. Go ahead and drop my personal picks off the chart completely.

[Kepler]

(left: Mean ± SD, right: heat map of votes)

These are beautiful! What did you do them in? (I'm going to try to do the same thing in TBRW.)