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Thread: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

  1. #21
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    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    I wonder if you could make a tidy living just betting against teams with delusional fanbases: Notre Dame, USC, Michigan; the Cowboys and Redskins; the Leafs and Rangers; the Knicks. Homer Arbitrage.
    I don't know about making a living doing that, but "Pros" absolutely know that there is a finger on the scale with teams like that.
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    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    I wonder if you could make a tidy living just betting against teams with delusional fanbases: Notre Dame, USC, Michigan; the Cowboys and Redskins; the Leafs and Rangers; the Knicks. Homer Arbitrage.
    The sports books also know that certain teams attract a lot of betting, including many that you listed.
    That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

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    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

    Quote Originally Posted by SJHovey View Post
    The sports books also know that certain teams attract a lot of betting, including many that you listed.
    Do they build in a fudge factor?

    I always assumed (I guess incorrectly) that the odds were a simple mathematical function of the action. The line moved always towards equality of action on either side of it, like a stock price. I thought it was just a deterministic function and the only input of the House was setting the initial seed.
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    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    Do they build in a fudge factor?

    I always assumed (I guess incorrectly) that the odds were a simple mathematical function of the action. The line moved always towards equality of action on either side of it, like a stock price. I thought it was just a deterministic function and the only input of the House was setting the initial seed.
    The fudge factor comes in by moving the line. That is where "Pros" make their moves. If it plays out well enough, then can bacsically have winning bets on both sides based on small window(s) of certain outcomes...
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    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    Do they build in a fudge factor?

    I always assumed (I guess incorrectly) that the odds were a simple mathematical function of the action. The line moved always towards equality of action on either side of it, like a stock price. I thought it was just a deterministic function and the only input of the House was setting the initial seed.
    The initial line by the books is just a kind of feeling out process. They set the line kind of where they think it should be based upon a variety of factors, including past experience that a lot of fans will bet the Patriots, for instance, or bet a favorite. Then, as the sharp money comes in they adjust it accordingly.

    The sharp money waits for the initial line, waiting to pounce. They usually have their own "line" in mind, and if the initial line at the books is different enough, they will hit it hard.

    Sometimes they'll put some early money down on one side just to see if they can get a shift in the line from the books, then bet big on the other side later in the week. A lot of sports books will have lower betting limits early, then raise them as the week goes on.

    It's kind of interesting to watch. You might see a game where the line is set, and then a few days later you'll see that 85% of all the tickets are on one side but the line hasn't moved. That tells you that the public is the 85%, but the sharp money is going against the public and is putting enough money down to balance out the large disparity in tickets sold.
    That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

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    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

    Quote Originally Posted by SJHovey View Post
    The initial line by the books is just a kind of feeling out process. They set the line kind of where they think it should be based upon a variety of factors, including past experience that a lot of fans will bet the Patriots, for instance, or bet a favorite. Then, as the sharp money comes in they adjust it accordingly.

    The sharp money waits for the initial line, waiting to pounce. They usually have their own "line" in mind, and if the initial line at the books is different enough, they will hit it hard.

    Sometimes they'll put some early money down on one side just to see if they can get a shift in the line from the books, then bet big on the other side later in the week. A lot of sports books will have lower betting limits early, then raise them as the week goes on.

    It's kind of interesting to watch. You might see a game where the line is set, and then a few days later you'll see that 85% of all the tickets are on one side but the line hasn't moved. That tells you that the public is the 85%, but the sharp money is going against the public and is putting enough money down to balance out the large disparity in tickets sold.
    I didn't know there was a way of telling how much action went where.

    In any case, you've disabused me of the notion that the line is driven by math. It's manually set and moved by the broker.

    So clearly the way to beat the House is to infiltrate them and throw the line. :-)
    Last edited by Kepler; 09-27-2019 at 05:15 PM.
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    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.


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    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

    Skating the cup to start the season feels weird.

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    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

    Not NHL related but hockey relevant: Jon Lee-Olsen, a goalie for Danish hockey champions Rungsted, has come out as gay. Link's in Danish. https://sport.tv2.dk/ishockey/2019-1...seksuelle-mand
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    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

    Toronto blew a 4-1 lead today against the Habs, lose 6-5.

    I'm laughing. Straight up laughing my flat *** off.
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    Quote Originally Posted by MissThundercat View Post
    Toronto blew a 4-1 lead today against the Habs, lose 6-5.

    I'm laughing. Straight up laughing my flat *** off.
    As I was watching I was thinking "Deja vu all over again."

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    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

    Quote Originally Posted by MissThundercat View Post
    Toronto blew a 4-1 lead today against the Habs, lose 6-5.

    I'm laughing. Straight up laughing my flat *** off.
    a.k.a. the last 50 years of Leafs hockey neatly summarized in one game.

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    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

    Quote Originally Posted by MissThundercat View Post
    Toronto blew a 4-1 lead today against the Habs, lose 6-5.

    I'm laughing. Straight up laughing my flat *** off.
    Every year, same old story.

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    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

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    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

    4 goals for Mantha today.
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    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

    I'll be... the Wings beat the Habs tonight.

    This has been a good start... but talk to me again in February and again in April.
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    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

    Quote Originally Posted by MissThundercat View Post
    I'll be... the Wings beat the Habs tonight.

    This has been a good start... but talk to me again in February and again in April.
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    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

    This thread title applies to the Wild as well. They couldnt stop a mite team.

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    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

    The Leafs have not won a cup in mookie's lifetime

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    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

    Quote Originally Posted by mookie1995 View Post
    The Leafs have not won a cup in mookie's lifetime
    Minnesota has not won a Cup in anyone's lifetime.
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