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Thread: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

  1. #701
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Poor Delaney, they wouldn't even give him odds, lol.
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by geezer View Post
    U.S. Politics
    Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election
    08:00 PM
    2001 Donald Trump -110
    2006 Elizabeth Warren +700
    2004 Joe Biden +750
    2002 Bernie Sanders +900
    2003 Kamala Harris +1400
    2068 Andrew Yang +2200
    2060 Pete Buttigieg +2800
    2025 Tulsi Gabbard +4000
    2047 Beto ORourke +6600
    2007 Cory Booker +6600
    2017 Amy Klobuchar +10000
    2069 Marianne Williamson +10000
    2005 Mike Pence +10000
    2015 Julian Castro +12500
    2061 Bill de Blasio +15000
    2057 Jay Inslee +15000
    2050 John Hickenlooper +15000
    2008 Kirsten Gillibrand +15000
    2070 Michael Bennet +15000
    2065 Seth Moulton +15000

    I feel like Cory Booker is probably "the best bet" right now.
    Pence.

    What does Dump's -110 mean? A $1000 bet wins $890 more?
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  3. #703
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    $100 bet gives a $110 payout.

    Stupid bet.

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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
    $100 bet gives a $110 payout.

    Stupid bet.
    Nope --> $110 bet wins $100.


    (FWIW it puts Trump at 52.38% to win, Liz at 12.5% to win, and Joe at 11.76%.)
    Last edited by Wisko McBadgerton; 08-14-2019 at 05:56 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    Pence.

    What does Dump's -110 mean? A $1000 bet wins $890 more?
    110 wins 100 (pays 210). Essentially means he's getting 50/50 odds, since the extra 10 is the house vig.

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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Balls. I knew that didnít sound right.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wisko McBadgerton View Post
    Nope --> $110 bet wins $100.


    (FWIW it puts Trump at 52.38% to win, Liz at 12.5% to win, and Joe at 11.76%.)
    -110 in Vegas speak = 50% to win. Gotta account for the house's take.

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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    So a positive x means $100 gets you x, and a negative y means y gets you $100.

    (i.e., -200 would mean a $200 bet wins $100, +200 means a $100 bet wins $200)

    Right?

    So, +200 = -50?
    Last edited by Kepler; 08-14-2019 at 08:21 PM.
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    -110 = You bet 110, you win 100 on top of your original bet
    +110 = You bet 100, and you win 110 on top of your original bet
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    So a positive x means $100 gets you x, and a negative y means y gets you $100.

    (i.e., -200 would mean a $200 bet wins $100, +200 means a $100 bet wins $200)

    Right?

    So, +200 = -50?
    Yeah, but you'd never see -50, you'd see +200. Just like you'd never see +50, you'd see -200 instead. Lowest most casinos will go for an absolute value is -110, which indicates a tossup. After that they'd switch to positive numbers to indicate an underdog. Occasionally you'll see -105 paired with -115 to indicate something like a 1-point underdog.

    Most Vegas books have a spread of 20 for their NFL moneylines. So if the favorite was -160, the underdog would be +140, for instance.
    Last edited by unofan; 08-14-2019 at 09:44 PM.

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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Hickenlooper out

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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
    Hickenlooper out
    He was struggling. Doubtful he would've made the next debate, from what I read.
    Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
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    Quote Originally Posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
    Hickenlooper out
    Hopefully he runs for senate in CO.

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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    All signs point there. He has a 50-point lead in the primary and a 13-point lead in the general.

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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
    All signs point there. He has a 50-point lead in the primary and a 13-point lead in the general.
    Yes. It's where he belongs. Good decision on both ends.

    The correct place for the "I won in a purple state!" Democrats is there in that purple state. They build their careers, we make inroads into Dumbf-ckistan, and we both deny fascists seats and governorships. What's not to love?

    I'd like to see Bullock, Castro, Inslee, Klobuchar, O'Rourke, Ryan, and Sestak likewise drop out, go back to their states, win elections there, and help us build our state and local organizations.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    I'd like to see ... O'Rourke, ... drop out, go back to their states, win elections there, and help us build our state and local organizations.

  17. #717
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Beto's ego is getting the better of him.
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    It's all gamesmanship. You aim high and suit your rhetoric to it right up until... you don't.

    I think we may all live long enough to see a TX Senate delegation of 2 Dems, whether that's O'Rourke and Castro or somebody else. I know it's a stupid state and I know the GOP cheats and will only cheat harder as they dwindle, but declaring a pogrom on Latinos is likely not the most effective way for the GOP to recruit them.

    I hope in my lifetime there is a solid blue Southwest from LA to the Sabine River.
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    I think we may all live long enough to see a TX Senate delegation of 2 Dems, whether that's O'Rourke and Castro or somebody else. I know it's a stupid state and I know the GOP cheats and will only cheat harder as they dwindle, but declaring a pogrom on Latinos is likely not the most effective way for the GOP to recruit them.
    Similar to Colorado, we need a couple million more Californians to move in first to swing it.
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post
    Beto's ego is getting the better of him.
    He won't win the Senate seat anyway. Hillary thought she was going to carry Georgia and Arizona. Too much Fool's Gold with these Democrats. They can't even hold Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania and they blew Iowa and I believe Obama won there twice.
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