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Thread: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

  1. #461
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by trixR4kids View Post
    She couldn’t have done any worse.
    I think his point was that she would have been never been elected in the first place.

    Edit: Which is kind of a silly rebuttal of a silly argument.

    You elect the most liberal candidate that can be elected. You wouldn't run her in ND or MO.
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by Handyman View Post
    Why and the hell would you guys sit through that? Wasnt there paint drying somewhere?

    On another note my mom said the other day she doesnt like Harris because she was mean to Biden.
    What a coincidence, that's exactly what my mom said! Must be the cable media talking point. Or what Meghan McCain said on The View.
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Well yeah but AOC doesnít exist in 2013 and politics has changed considerably since then so itís a moot point. Fast forwarding to 2019, republican lite doesnít work well when the opposition can just pick the MAGA chud.

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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by ericredaxe View Post
    I thought he did pretty well in what was otherwise a snoozer of a debate. I like him more and more as I hear more from him. If he didnít win, who did? Castro maybe (but i donít see it)?
    Biden, because he entered the front runner and he leaves the front runner. I too like most people don't think Biden is where the party is at right now. However, that's not the same discussion as to whether or not he becomes the nominee. That race is based on accumulating delegates and when Bennett/Delaney/Klobachur/Hickenlooper/etc start dropping out soon I suspect most of those center-left votes are going to go to Biden thus increasing his strength relative to Bernie/Lizzy/Kamala who continue to split to votes of the liberal wing. Remember, if you don't hit 15% in a primary you don't get any delegates IIRC. Something has to give with those 3.

    Regarding Booker, right now he's a gnat. If he started rising in the polls he'd get the same treatment Harris got last night, which is people would actually start focusing in on his record.
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post
    What a coincidence, that's exactly what my mom said! Must be the cable media talking point. Or what Meghan McCain said on The View.
    My Mom would side with Harris.
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by trixR4kids View Post
    Well yeah but AOC doesn’t exist in 2013 and politics has changed considerably since then so it’s a moot point. Fast forwarding to 2019, republican lite doesn’t work well when the opposition can just pick the MAGA chud.
    Every district is different. The rule stays the same: You nominate the most liberal candidate that can be elected. If you basically put up a Republican (who might vote with you 20% of the time) in the rural areas of Alabama, so be it. It's better than 0%.
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    When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
    He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West.

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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Right but the party consistently puts its foot on the scale for the likes of Joe Manchin in the primary, despite the fact that his challenger got more votes than the republican, so thatís not really happening.

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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
    Every district is different. The rule stays the same: You nominate the most liberal candidate that can be elected.
    This. CA Dems should be Marxists. MS Dems should be Rockefeller Republicans.
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by Rover View Post
    Biden, because he entered the front runner and he leaves the front runner. I too like most people don't think Biden is where the party is at right now. However, that's not the same discussion as to whether or not he becomes the nominee. That race is based on accumulating delegates and when Bennett/Delaney/Klobachur/Hickenlooper/etc start dropping out soon I suspect most of those center-left votes are going to go to Biden thus increasing his strength relative to Bernie/Lizzy/Kamala who continue to split to votes of the liberal wing. Remember, if you don't hit 15% in a primary you don't get any delegates IIRC. Something has to give with those 3.

    Regarding Booker, right now he's a gnat. If he started rising in the polls he'd get the same treatment Harris got last night, which is people would actually start focusing in on his record.
    Rambling post:
    I heard it somewhere over the last 24 hours. I'm still not sure if it's a good point, but it sounded like it at first:

    Biden did well because he has nine other people on the stage with him. He doesn't need to shine because he only gets a couple dozen minutes. Everyone else like MAW are just distractions. When it's whittled down to four or five candidates, hes' going to get crushed I'm guessing. Name recognition alone allows him to just stand up there and parry the blows. Everyone else needs to go on the attack but they have to separate themselves from everyone else in their lane and Biden might not be a target. You essentially have something like four lanes:
    Moderates
    Single-issues
    Socialist/Populists
    Morons

    Gabbard, Williamson are fighting for the morons but they're fighting for scraps. Single-issue candidates (Inslee, Yang) tend to fight for an even smaller scrap; their supporters are extraordinarily dedicated and tend to not be peeled away. Populists (Bernie, Warren) are going to have to figure out which one is going to be the strongest to carry their banner against the most crowded lane. Which of course is the moderates. I'm not sure if Harris and Booker belong here though. But regardless, Biden, Harris, Pete, and Booker are going to be the last four standing in this lane and need to focus on each other before moving to the populists in the final debate series before Super Tuesday.

    Biden might do fine as we get smaller, but I'm not confident. Let's assume the final five are: Biden, Bernie, Warren, Harris, and Pete (based on national polls). You essentially have a much tighter field who aren't single-issue candidates. They don't have a gimmick and must have substance. Once you get down to the final populist candidate vs. the final moderate candidate (or two), it will be the real debate on the issues. That's when the Democrats need to figure out how they want to approach the election. If Biden has to fight against a strong moderate and a strong populist, it's going to be tough to straddle the two lanes. I think he gets run over by someone with more passion.
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    Quote Originally Posted by SanTropez View Post
    May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
    Quote Originally Posted by bigblue_dl View Post
    I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
    He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West.

  10. #470
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by trixR4kids View Post
    Right but the party consistently puts its foot on the scale for the likes of Joe Manchin in the primary, despite the fact that his challenger got more votes than the republican, so that’s not really happening.
    Because Joe Manchin has general election momentum. Incumbents have a very, very distinct advantage and as long as they win, they should be supported. I'd rather have a Manchin than take a chance on losing to a MAGA candidate that will NEVER be unseated.
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    Quote Originally Posted by SanTropez View Post
    May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
    Quote Originally Posted by bigblue_dl View Post
    I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
    He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West.

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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    I'll take those lanes. Here's who I think has staying power within them:

    Moderates:

    1. Biden
    2. Buttigieg
    3. Harris
    4. Castro maaaaaaaaaaybe

    (Booker aint makin' it)

    Single-issues:

    (I don't think anybody survives. Single issues are just trying to prod a real contender into acknowledging their issue.)

    Socialist/Populists:

    1. Warren
    2. Sanders

    Morons:

    (Nobody survives. The strange revelation is that O'Rourke may well be in this category.)

    From there I can see Sanders gradually giving way to Warren in the face of all the moderates trying to de-legitimize actual liberalism. I predict if the moderates do this that actually cuts all their throats except Biden, because you are reinforcing his message of "don't hope for anything better, just stay the course."

    The alternative is Harris winds up drifting towards the liberals. If this happens I think Biden is eroded further which means all the moderates stay in the race and we wind up with a long primary season and perhaps a Warren plurality.

    Whether it's Biden or Warren I assume Harris gets the veep.
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    Quote Originally Posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
    Because Joe Manchin has general election momentum. Incumbents have a very, very distinct advantage and as long as they win, they should be supported. I'd rather have a Manchin than take a chance on losing to a MAGA candidate that will NEVER be unseated.
    The party doesnít need to support Trump supporters when their vastly more progressive challenger would probably also win.

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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post
    What a coincidence, that's exactly what my mom said! Must be the cable media talking point. Or what Meghan McCain said on The View.
    My mom doesnt watch Cable News (or the View I dont think) she just didnt like that Harris caught Joe off guard. She is just not very learned in these things.
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    I'll take those lanes. Here's who I think has staying power within them:

    Moderates:

    1. Biden
    2. Buttigieg
    3. Harris
    4. Castro maaaaaaaaaaybe

    (Booker aint makin' it)

    Single-issues:

    (I don't think anybody survives. Single issues are just trying to prod a real contender into acknowledging their issue.)

    Socialist/Populists:

    1. Warren
    2. Sanders

    Morons:

    (Nobody survives. The strange revelation is that O'Rourke may well be in this category.)

    From there I can see Sanders gradually giving way to Warren in the face of all the moderates trying to de-legitimize actual liberalism. I predict if the moderates do this that actually cuts all their throats except Biden, because you are reinforcing his message of "don't hope for anything better, just stay the course."

    The alternative is Harris winds up drifting towards the liberals. If this happens I think Biden is eroded further which means all the moderates stay in the race and we wind up with a long primary season and perhaps a Warren plurality.

    Whether it's Biden or Warren I assume Harris gets the veep.
    Completely agree. Even down the O'Rourke "moron" comment. I almost added him and DeBlasio to that list. But they're dead men walking as it is. I don't know why I don't like DeBlasio, because the things he says aren't wrong. O'Rourke was just an embarrassing blemish. Maybe he'll be fine if he has some time to grow.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
    He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West.

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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    I don't see Sanders giving way to Warren anytime soon. He's going to have $$$ and a dedicated following which coupled with his personality will take him deep into the primaries. The only thing I see crippling his own assessment of his candidacy is if he performs really poorly in New Hampshire.

    I think people are misreading Biden's appeal. He's benefitting immensely from anytime Chump goes insane on twitter or anywhere else. When that happens people start drifting towards the familiar and comforting. That fits Biden to a T.

    The good news is that I don't see him coming out of a debate with Lizzy Warren without getting TKO'd. But, we also would have thought Harris would have finished him off last night and he had a better debate than she did. All lesser known candidates (as in not Biden or Bernie) have the same problem, which is they haven't been vetted yet on a national stage. So Buttigieg sounds great until you dig into the race relations in the city he runs. O'Rourke sounds great until he gets challenged on his plans and can't respond, etc. etc.
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by trixR4kids View Post
    The party doesnít need to support Trump supporters when their vastly more progressive challenger would probably also win.
    WEST. VlRGINIA.

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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
    WEST. VlRGINIA.
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    I've never used drugs (was a boozer instead) but whatever trix is on I have to seriously consider taking provided it doesn't make me chase an angry old man around the country like he's the Messiah.
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by Rover View Post
    I don't see Sanders giving way to Warren anytime soon. He's going to have $$$ and a dedicated following which coupled with his personality will take him deep into the primaries. The only thing I see crippling his own assessment of his candidacy is if he performs really poorly in New Hampshire.
    Sanders himself barely matters. His voters will begin peeling away as Warren continues to perform well in the debates and it becomes clear that the gap between Sanders and Warren is far less than that between Warren and the moderates.

    I think it's better for our chance of a liberal nominee if he stays beyond Super Tuesday. The moderates (and Dump) have to divide their fire. Once only Warren is left it's going to be OH NOES TEH KOMMINISMS!!!11! all day every day coming from the GOP and the Dem center.
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    Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    Sanders himself barely matters. His voters will begin peeling away as Warren continues to perform well in the debates and it becomes clear that the gap between Sanders and Warren is far less than that between Warren and the moderates.
    See, from my perspective all of his voters are like trix. I just don't see those people going anywhere for a looooong time even after the race is essentially decided.
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