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Thread: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

  1. #61
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jimjamesak View Post
    Well that’ll put a damper on the Star Wars Galaxy’s Edge opening...
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    So it's turned quite south, it appears. This one is going to be a big model calibrator, given how the models have been pretty wrong, even in the short term.

    Again keep CLOSE tabs on this storm.

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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Itís been pointed at the Cape for a while, and now the NOAA site I watch is showing West Palm Beach - thatís only 150 miles farther south, 2 days out. Thatís not so bad, so far as predictions go.

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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Leavin' this here and steppin' softly away...
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    Leavin' this here and steppin' softly away...
    Well, the Euro model has Dorian doing a hard right turn just off the FLA coast and running right up the Eastern seaboard until it heads out around the NC Capes. Still a slow mover, though.
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    Leavin' this here and steppin' softly away...
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  7. #67
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Quote Originally Posted by joecct View Post
    Well, the Euro model has Dorian doing a hard right turn just off the FLA coast and running right up the Eastern seaboard until it heads out around the NC Capes. Still a slow mover, though.
    That's actually been the trend in the models since yesterday afternoon. The vast majority have a hard turn to the north, the question is, does it make the turn with the center onshore or offshore? It makes a big difference.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScottK View Post
    That's actually been the trend in the models since yesterday afternoon. The vast majority have a hard turn to the north, the question is, does it make the turn with the center onshore or offshore? It makes a big difference.
    yea. The Euro forecasts a High dropping down over Northern Florida and blocking the westward movement and forcing Dorian up the coast. How far off the coast remains to be seen.

    5pm
    Last edited by joecct; 08-30-2019 at 03:55 PM.

  9. #69
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Quote Originally Posted by joecct View Post
    yea. The Euro forecasts a High dropping down over Northern Florida and blocking the westward movement and forcing Dorian up the coast. How far off the coast remains to be seen.

    5pm
    Actually, it's how quickly the Bermuda High erodes as a trough of low pressure moves across the Tennessee Valley. Those are the two factors that will turn the storm northward.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScottK View Post
    Actually, it's how quickly the Bermuda High erodes as a trough of low pressure moves across the Tennessee Valley. Those are the two factors that will turn the storm northward.
    Back in the mid 50s, the Bermuda High steered a number of Hurricanes up the east coast. One of them, Hazel, disrupted my parents' wedding plans.

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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Anybody know where Vero Beach is in relation fo landfall? That's where my BIL lives. Getting worried about his family.
    Last edited by MadTownSioux; 08-30-2019 at 08:13 PM.

  12. #72
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Quote Originally Posted by MadTownSioux View Post
    Anybody know where Vero Beach is in relation fo landfall? That's where my BIL lives. Getting worried about his family.
    https://www.google.com/maps/@27.4824...g%2F11hz_3v1pw

    That's not good...

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by ticapnews View Post
    wow, OK. Thanks.

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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Quote Originally Posted by ticapnews View Post
    That's assuming the Hurricane Center's forecast is right. The average forecast error at that point is nearly 200 miles. The majority of the forecast models now keep the center offshore. While a hurricane passing 20 miles offshore is very bad, it is actually quite a bit better than if the storm makes landfall.
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Very much so. Thatís what Matthew did in 2016 - it was supposed to make landfall and grind up the coast. At the last minute, it veered 30 miles east, so instead of taking the 130 mph eyewall up the ***, we ďonlyĒ got the 85 mph inner bands. Thanks for the reacharound, Matty!

    (Yes, a little punchy after a redeye last night and then 14 straight hours of prep and packing. We hit the road in the morning - headed up to Tennessee to stay with a relative.)

  16. #76
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Amazing how much the predicted track has changed.

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  17. #77
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Pretty sure the center of the current cone is within the cone theyíve been showing since Sunday, so itís not really that itís changed so much as solidified.

  18. #78
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Quote Originally Posted by LynahFan View Post
    Pretty sure the center of the current cone is within the cone theyíve been showing since Sunday, so itís not really that itís changed so much as solidified.
    Yeah, thats right,its still in that cone. I've watched and heard so much on the storm and there projected track you think thats really the where its going. Yesterday a weatherman who does local radio but also does work for the shipping industry, https://www.fleetweathergroup.com/ said he gave it 50 50 shot of reforming into a hurricane in the gulf after it crossed Florida, 12 hours later its going to hit Charleston instead.
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  19. #79
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Checked out a web cam on the Bahamas, looks like its starting to get nasty
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    cat5

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