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Thread: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

  1. #41
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    But last night, the eye was going to hit in Ponce, PR, which it isn't going to do that by any means. So in less than 12 hours, the actual result is not even close to any of the predictions I saw yesterday. They all missed by the cone they are projecting 12 hours out.

    edit- on this page- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...track#contents go from advisory 14, which was 8pm last night, and you will see that the eastern edge of the prediction cone was NE Puerto Rico. As of 16a, the center was on that line, and now 17, the western edge of the direction cone is now that line. Seems that this one has more a mind of it's own vs following a model path.
    Last edited by alfablue; 08-28-2019 at 11:55 AM.

  2. #42
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Baer View Post
    T. S. Erin https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at...start#contents


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  3. #43

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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Quote Originally Posted by alfablue View Post
    But last night, the eye was going to hit in Ponce, PR, which it isn't going to do that by any means. So in less than 12 hours, the actual result is not even close to any of the predictions I saw yesterday. They all missed by the cone they are projecting 12 hours out.

    edit- on this page- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...track#contents go from advisory 14, which was 8pm last night, and you will see that the eastern edge of the prediction cone was NE Puerto Rico. As of 16a, the center was on that line, and now 17, the western edge of the direction cone is now that line. Seems that this one has more a mind of it's own vs following a model path.
    Alfa

    Mike's Weather Page (https://www.spaghettimodels.com) has been consistent on Dorian. For the past few days his morning and evening facebook sessions have been warnings that once Dorian got past Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic it would hit warm water and blow up. The blocking high pressure ridge would determine how far north and west it would go and don't ignore a jaunt across FLA before turning north.

    Follow Mike on FB and watch his live sessions. We Drunk Donkeys feel he is more believable than your local weather person and TWC.
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  4. #44
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Quote Originally Posted by joecct View Post
    Alfa

    Mike's Weather Page (https://www.spaghettimodels.com) has been consistent on Dorian. For the past few days his morning and evening facebook sessions have been warnings that once Dorian got past Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic it would hit warm water and blow up. The blocking high pressure ridge would determine how far north and west it would go and don't ignore a jaunt across FLA before turning north.

    Follow Mike on FB and watch his live sessions. We Drunk Donkeys feel he is more believable than your local weather person and TWC.
    Most of his page is just reporting what NOAA is putting out. So saying his models have been consistent, as I see it, is just saying NOAA has been consistent. I've already posted that.

    The other source is from "tropical tidbits" and if you look at the models there, you see that they got them very wrong yesterday, too- like the NOAA model, last evening, the storm was going to hit central southern PR, and it ended up east of the most eastern model. So in less than a day, the model path through the Greater Antilles, has gotten the path wrong. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#05L Even look at the path's from 00Z to 18Z and see how it's shifted, and how far off one of them even sticks from reality.

    Mind you, a lot of people really care about how hurricanes get past these islands. It matters to me, a lot. I'm quite thankful that the model got it so wrong, as my family was looking at a direct hit.

    I'm not suggesting that the model that once it gets past, it will turn into a hurricane was wrong- that has turned out to be quite accurate.

    I'm suggesting that people keep closer track on it than just watching the models.

    You should look into sources more....

  5. #45
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Quote Originally Posted by joecct View Post
    Alfa

    Mike's Weather Page (https://www.spaghettimodels.com) has been consistent on Dorian. For the past few days his morning and evening facebook sessions have been warnings that once Dorian got past Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic it would hit warm water and blow up. The blocking high pressure ridge would determine how far north and west it would go and don't ignore a jaunt across FLA before turning north.

    Follow Mike on FB and watch his live sessions. We Drunk Donkeys feel he is more believable than your local weather person and TWC.
    Kinda sorta. He pulls the front and center data from the NHC. You can see their past models here:
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...track#contents

    Look at the jumps from 13A to 14 and then the progression from 15 to 16A. As it went over Fort-de-France, the models changed its path pretty significantly. I'm guessing that's because there's a lot of uncertainty that gets introduced when it tracks over land. Plus the cone of uncertainty is probably only a 90 or 95%. There's always a small chance it deviates from the cone.
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  6. #46
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Quote Originally Posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
    Kinda sorta. He pulls the front and center data from the NHC. You can see their past models here:
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...track#contents

    Look at the jumps from 13A to 14 and then the progression from 15 to 16A. As it went over Fort-de-France, the models changed its path pretty significantly. I'm guessing that's because there's a lot of uncertainty that gets introduced when it tracks over land. Plus the cone of uncertainty is probably only a 90 or 95%. There's always a small chance it deviates from the cone.
    Tidbits explains in the video
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog...ater/#comments

    Edit: And it sounds like my guess on the land disruption was right. Apparently these are relatively mountainous islands which were passed over by the center. So fairly big disruption compared to a normal forecast.
    Code:
    As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
    College Hockey 6       College Football 0
    BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
    Quote Originally Posted by SanTropez View Post
    May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
    Quote Originally Posted by bigblue_dl View Post
    I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
    He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West.

  7. #47
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Quote Originally Posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
    Tidbits explains in the video
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog...ater/#comments

    Edit: And it sounds like my guess on the land disruption was right. Apparently these are relatively mountainous islands which were passed over by the center. So fairly big disruption compared to a normal forecast.
    The VI's (all 3 sets of them) are pretty low. Puerto Rico does have some significant mountains- but the storm totally missed it- it was blown quite east of there. If it had gone west, the island of Hispaniola is MUCH more mountainous, though (and a lot bigger).

    Just keep close tabs on this storm....

  8. #48
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Quote Originally Posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
    Plus the cone of uncertainty is probably only a 90 or 95%. There's always a small chance it deviates from the cone.
    The cone is simply 2/3 of the average error in the NHC forecast over the past 5 years. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml
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  9. #49
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    So....yeah. My house is the exact center of the cone on the east coast, and I am in CA on a business trip so I donít have a chance to evacuate (which my wife will definitely want to do) until Saturday, when 3M other Floridians/idiots will be trying to do the same thing. This is going to suck.

  10. #50
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Good luck. Keep us posted.

  11. #51
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Quote Originally Posted by LynahFan View Post
    So....yeah. My house is the exact center of the cone on the east coast, and I am in CA on a business trip so I donít have a chance to evacuate (which my wife will definitely want to do) until Saturday, when 3M other Floridians/idiots will be trying to do the same thing. This is going to suck.
    Don't worry about it. If it comes near the east coast Sniffles will nuke it. Problem solved.

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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Quote Originally Posted by ticapnews View Post
    Don't worry about it. If it comes near the east coast Sniffles will nuke it. Problem solved.
    I laughed. Maybe fly your wife to LA tonight, LynahFan

    (Also, what the ****? I typed Ďlyní and it autocorrected to LynahFan. I donít think Iíve ever typed your name on this iPhone. Sometimes technology is weird.)

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by LynahFan View Post
    So....yeah. My house is the exact center of the cone on the east coast, and I am in CA on a business trip so I donít have a chance to evacuate (which my wife will definitely want to do) until Saturday, when 3M other Floridians/idiots will be trying to do the same thing. This is going to suck.
    Yah man.... stay safe

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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    @MikeTFox5 New run of the HWRF, typically one of the better hurricane models for intensity, continues to be a concern with #HurricaneDorian. Peaks #Dorian at 150mph, just 7mph short of a category 5. Notable though, it's faster than most models with landfall Sunday PM. Most others now Monday https://t.co/VjjXgDrMYC

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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Quote Originally Posted by joecct View Post
    @MikeTFox5 New run of the HWRF, typically one of the better hurricane models for intensity, continues to be a concern with #HurricaneDorian. Peaks #Dorian at 150mph, just 7mph short of a category 5. Notable though, it's faster than most models with landfall Sunday PM. Most others now Monday https://t.co/VjjXgDrMYC
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    "Dorian, you're about to become a category five hurricane! What are you going to do next?"

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  17. #57
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Well thatíll put a damper on the Star Wars Galaxyís Edge opening...

  18. #58
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Fortunately my residence is closer to the opposite coast, and I already had a wedding in Philly to go to this weekend. Gonna pack enough clothes for a week though, as I'm not sure I'll be flying back to Tampa Monday afternoon as planned.

    Best wishes LynahFan.

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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Cape Canaveral is ground zero right now.
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  20. #60
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    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Newest model runs starting to show a turn north faster, raising the possibility that it either emulates Matthew from a few years ago and rakes the entire coast all the way up to NC without landfall, or spares most of Florida and heads for the Carolinas.
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