Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #46
    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

    Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
    Kinda sorta. He pulls the front and center data from the NHC. You can see their past models here:
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...track#contents

    Look at the jumps from 13A to 14 and then the progression from 15 to 16A. As it went over Fort-de-France, the models changed its path pretty significantly. I'm guessing that's because there's a lot of uncertainty that gets introduced when it tracks over land. Plus the cone of uncertainty is probably only a 90 or 95%. There's always a small chance it deviates from the cone.
    Tidbits explains in the video
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog...ater/#comments

    Edit: And it sounds like my guess on the land disruption was right. Apparently these are relatively mountainous islands which were passed over by the center. So fairly big disruption compared to a normal forecast.
    Code:
    As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
    College Hockey 6       College Football 0
    BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
    Originally posted by SanTropez
    May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
    Originally posted by bigblue_dl
    I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
    Originally posted by Kepler
    When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
    He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

    Comment


    • #47
      Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

      Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
      Tidbits explains in the video
      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog...ater/#comments

      Edit: And it sounds like my guess on the land disruption was right. Apparently these are relatively mountainous islands which were passed over by the center. So fairly big disruption compared to a normal forecast.
      The VI's (all 3 sets of them) are pretty low. Puerto Rico does have some significant mountains- but the storm totally missed it- it was blown quite east of there. If it had gone west, the island of Hispaniola is MUCH more mountainous, though (and a lot bigger).

      Just keep close tabs on this storm....

      Comment


      • #48
        Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

        Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
        Plus the cone of uncertainty is probably only a 90 or 95%. There's always a small chance it deviates from the cone.
        The cone is simply 2/3 of the average error in the NHC forecast over the past 5 years. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml
        Charter Member of darin's "UML Seven"

        "I just hate Boston College to be perfectly honest'' -Ken Dorsey
        "It's time for my favorite NCAA tradition ... that's right, rooting against BC!" -Bill Simmons

        Comment


        • #49
          Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

          So....yeah. My house is the exact center of the cone on the east coast, and I am in CA on a business trip so I don’t have a chance to evacuate (which my wife will definitely want to do) until Saturday, when 3M other Floridians/idiots will be trying to do the same thing. This is going to suck.
          If you don't change the world today, how can it be any better tomorrow?

          Comment


          • #50
            Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

            Good luck. Keep us posted.
            Code:
            As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
            College Hockey 6       College Football 0
            BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
            Originally posted by SanTropez
            May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
            Originally posted by bigblue_dl
            I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
            Originally posted by Kepler
            When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
            He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

            Comment


            • #51
              Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

              Originally posted by LynahFan View Post
              So....yeah. My house is the exact center of the cone on the east coast, and I am in CA on a business trip so I don’t have a chance to evacuate (which my wife will definitely want to do) until Saturday, when 3M other Floridians/idiots will be trying to do the same thing. This is going to suck.
              Don't worry about it. If it comes near the east coast Sniffles will nuke it. Problem solved.

              Comment


              • #52
                Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

                Originally posted by ticapnews View Post
                Don't worry about it. If it comes near the east coast Sniffles will nuke it. Problem solved.
                I laughed. Maybe fly your wife to LA tonight, LynahFan

                (Also, what the ****? I typed ‘lyn’ and it autocorrected to LynahFan. I don’t think I’ve ever typed your name on this iPhone. Sometimes technology is weird.)
                Code:
                As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                Originally posted by SanTropez
                May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                Originally posted by Kepler
                When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                Comment


                • #53
                  Originally posted by LynahFan View Post
                  So....yeah. My house is the exact center of the cone on the east coast, and I am in CA on a business trip so I don’t have a chance to evacuate (which my wife will definitely want to do) until Saturday, when 3M other Floridians/idiots will be trying to do the same thing. This is going to suck.
                  Yah man.... stay safe
                  a legend and an out of work bum look a lot alike, daddy.

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

                    @MikeTFox5 New run of the HWRF, typically one of the better hurricane models for intensity, continues to be a concern with #HurricaneDorian. Peaks #Dorian at 150mph, just 7mph short of a category 5. Notable though, it's faster than most models with landfall Sunday PM. Most others now Monday https://t.co/VjjXgDrMYC
                    CCT '77 & '78
                    4 kids
                    5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
                    1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

                    ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
                    - Benjamin Franklin

                    Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

                    I want to live forever. So far, so good.

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

                      Originally posted by joecct View Post
                      @MikeTFox5 New run of the HWRF, typically one of the better hurricane models for intensity, continues to be a concern with #HurricaneDorian. Peaks #Dorian at 150mph, just 7mph short of a category 5. Notable though, it's faster than most models with landfall Sunday PM. Most others now Monday https://t.co/VjjXgDrMYC
                      Uh. Sh-t.
                      Cornell University
                      National Champion 1967, 1970
                      ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                      Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

                        "Dorian, you're about to become a category five hurricane! What are you going to do next?"

                        'I'm going to Disney World!'

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

                          Well that’ll put a damper on the Star Wars Galaxy’s Edge opening...
                          U-A-A!!!Go!Go!GreenandGold!
                          Applejack Tells You How UAA Is Doing...
                          I spell Failure with UAF

                          Originally posted by UAFIceAngel
                          But let's be real...There are 40 some other teams and only two alaskan teams...the day one of us wins something big will be the day I transfer to UAA
                          Originally posted by Doyle Woody
                          Best sign by a visting Seawolf fan Friday went to a young man who held up a piece of white poster board that read: "YOU CAN'T SPELL FAILURE WITHOUT UAF."

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

                            Fortunately my residence is closer to the opposite coast, and I already had a wedding in Philly to go to this weekend. Gonna pack enough clothes for a week though, as I'm not sure I'll be flying back to Tampa Monday afternoon as planned.

                            Best wishes LynahFan.

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

                              Cape Canaveral is ground zero right now.
                              Cornell University
                              National Champion 1967, 1970
                              ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                              Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?

                                Newest model runs starting to show a turn north faster, raising the possibility that it either emulates Matthew from a few years ago and rakes the entire coast all the way up to NC without landfall, or spares most of Florida and heads for the Carolinas.
                                Charter Member of darin's "UML Seven"

                                "I just hate Boston College to be perfectly honest'' -Ken Dorsey
                                "It's time for my favorite NCAA tradition ... that's right, rooting against BC!" -Bill Simmons

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X