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Thread: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

  1. #1
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    2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    It is live but one assumes it will change if CC wins tonight's contest...

    If all favorites win

    1t St. Cloud State
    1t Massachusetts
    3 Minnesota State
    4 Minnesota Duluth
    5 Quinnipiac
    6 Denver
    7 Ohio State
    8 Cornell
    9 Northeastern
    10 Clarkson
    11 Arizona State
    12 Notre Dame
    13 Harvard
    14 Providence
    15 Bowling Green
    31t American International
    ----
    16t Penn State

    Code:
    Manchester	Providence	Allentown	Fargo
    Mass		Mankato		UMD		St Cloud
    Ohio State	Denver		Quinnipiac	Cornell
    Clarkson	Arizona St      Notre Dame      Northeastern
    BGSU		Providence	Harvard		AIC

  2. #2
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    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Big ten will have two..so if Notre Dame loses next weekend Penn State will take its place as a lower seed.

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    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Quote Originally Posted by wsummers View Post
    Big ten will have two..so if Notre Dame loses next weekend Penn State will take its place as a lower seed.
    If all the favorites win but Penn State upsets, the Nittany Lions move right into that 12 spot. Nice symmetry.

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    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    This year's parley:
    WCHA: Bowling Green
    NCHC: Western Michigan/CC
    ECAC: Brown
    Hockey East: Boston College/Boston University
    B1G: No one
    AHA: No one

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    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Colorado College wins


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Quote Originally Posted by wsummers View Post
    Big ten will have two..so if Notre Dame loses next weekend Penn State will take its place as a lower seed.
    If Penn State wins next weekend they are automatically at Allentown as the host school and can't be placed anywhere else.

  7. #7
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    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Things I think (this will be updated as I run more scenarios)
    If you find exceptions to any of these please post them in this thread.

    St Cloud will be the #1 overall seed and play the AHA champion in Fargo. (Edit 1: A scenario where Penn State wins and 2 4 seeds are Hockey East teams means St Cloud would play the #15 seed, BC or BU)
    UMass will be the top seed in the east and will play at either Providence or Manchester, depending on PC and attendance concerns.
    Mankato is the third 1 seed, can finish 2-4
    Minnesota Duluth has the inside track for the final 1 seed. The Bulldogs can only lose it by losing twice next weekend while Denver wins twice.
    Denver can conceivably drop to a 3 seed or snag the final 1 seed but are almost certainly a 2.
    Likewise, Quinnipiac can fall to a 3 seed but are almost certainly a 2.
    Ohio State, Northeastern, Clarkson and Arizona State all appear to be locks for the national tournament. I can get ASU to 12 but the Sun Devils are still the last team in. Likewise for the Golden Knights.
    Providence needs to hope the favorites run the table.
    Cornell and Harvard still have work to do.
    Only the winner of the B1G Championship (and OSU) will make the field. The loser is out.
    Bowling Green can lose to Mankato and still get in (see the first post in the thread)
    Everyone from Western Michigan (#17 Pairwise) down is no longer in contention, except for the remaining autobid teams.

    I'm sure Jim Dahl will be along in no time to tell me I'm wrong.
    Last edited by ticapnews; 03-18-2019 at 10:09 PM.

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    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Concerning Bowling Green.....

    I think it is true to say that they are in, even with a loss, UNLESS:
    Any of the following win Conference Tournaments:
    BC
    BU
    Brown
    CC

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    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    ECAC gets Four in !
    It all starts with the goaltending.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
    Concerning Bowling Green.....

    I think it is true to say that they are in, even with a loss, UNLESS:
    Any of the following win Conference Tournaments:
    BC
    BU
    Brown
    CC
    That is what i have found too

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    Last edited by ticapnews; 03-19-2019 at 08:23 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ticapnews View Post
    I'm sure Jim Dahl will be along in no time to tell me I'm wrong.
    I'm a bit hamstrung by some confusion right now. Both USCHO and CHN are treating the Big Ten and WCHA on campus championship games as neutral site games, whereas I'm treating them as home games. That's actually turning out to matter. It would be trivial enough for me to just switch those games to neutral so we all agree, but I'm not sure that's right (and in fact can completely see how they would've accidentally implemented their calculators to always add in conference tournament game results as neutral site). The real question is what does the NCAA think?

    Meanwhile, here's what can happen if those games are home games:
    https://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrtournament/
    Last edited by JimDahl; 03-19-2019 at 10:31 AM.

  13. #13
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    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Quote Originally Posted by JimDahl View Post
    I'm a bit hamstrung by some confusion right now. Both USCHO and CHN are treating the Big Ten and WCHA on campus championship games as neutral site games, whereas I'm treating them as home games. That's actually turning out to matter. It would be trivial enough for me to just switch those games to neutral so we all agree, but I'm not sure that's right (and in fact can completely see how they would've accidentally implemented their calculators to always add in conference tournament game results as neutral site). The real question is what does the NCAA think?

    Meanwhile, here's what can happen if those games are neutral site:
    https://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrtournament/
    Logic says they are home games for the higher seeds because the site was determined by results on the ice. It isn't like Hockey East or NCHC where the site was predetermined regardless of results.

    And now the search for the handful of results that gets Union into the tournament...

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    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Quote Originally Posted by ticapnews View Post
    Logic says they are home games for the higher seeds because the site was determined by results on the ice. It isn't like Hockey East or NCHC where the site was predetermined regardless of results.

    And now the search for the handful of results that gets Union into the tournament...
    Question: The quarterfinals: Do they count as neutral or home ice?
    Big 10 Semis: Neutral or home ice?

    That's the precedent. Whatever those are, the final weekend should be as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
    Question: The quarterfinals: Do they count as neutral or home ice?
    Big 10 Semis: Neutral or home ice?

    That's the precedent. Whatever those are, the final weekend should be as well.
    Yep, those are all considered home. That's what makes me think the correct treatment of these is home (despite it not being what anyone else did). My guess is that no one made the conscious decision to treat those specific games as neutral, but that the calculators were designed and implemented back when all games in the calculator were neutral.

    But, I'm not positive those games will be considered home games, I just think they should be, so am going with that until I can somehow verify.
    Last edited by JimDahl; 03-19-2019 at 10:19 AM.

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    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Jim, I tweeted at CHN asking and it appears they intended for these to be calculated as home games but it isn't happening for some reason. So it looks like you're right.

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    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    I got BG in unless: BU/'BC win out, or CC wins out. Otherwise I can't find a way BG is out.
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    The University of Massachusetts:

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheRevengeance View Post
    Jim, I tweeted at CHN asking and it appears they intended for these to be calculated as home games but it isn't happening for some reason. So it looks like you're right.
    Update: CHN seems to have updated their calculator to have the home/road weights applied. Uscho and CHN now give me different RPI results for those games. If you're still seeing the same results on CHN maybe clear your browser.

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    Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor

    Not only that, but if you look at the tables for that scenario it shows a different RPI and St. Cloud still wins 58 comparisons. Something is broken there.

    EDIT: Never mind, figured it out. ticapnews forget to put in a result for the NCHC third place game. SCSU can lose comparisons to Northeastern and Union.
    Last edited by The Exiled One; 03-19-2019 at 01:12 PM.

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