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Thread: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

  1. #81
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    Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

    Adrian was worse off after the first loss, so the split was better on their PWR than a loss and season done.
    (Actually we could just go by the RPI and ignore the PWR. The PWR and RPI are exactly the same all the way down to number 23)
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    Quote Originally Posted by Birdwatcher View Post
    DMG has no effect on PWR ....not at all considered.
    I know. But 1-1 hurts the PWR.

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    Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

    Quote Originally Posted by NUProf View Post
    Adrian was worse off after the first loss, so the split was better on their PWR than a loss and season done.
    (Actually we could just go by the RPI and ignore the PWR. The PWR and RPI are exactly the same all the way down to number 23)
    Usually works-out that way...

    But the KRACH makes more sense.

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    Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

    Quote Originally Posted by joecct View Post
    I know. But 1-1 hurts the PWR.
    1-1 is better than 0-1, which is what would have happened had the NCHA not used this format. It is designed to protect the higher seeds from being upset in a one off.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Nubs View Post
    1-1 is better than 0-1, which is what would have happened had the NCHA not used this format. It is designed to protect the higher seeds from being upset in a one off.
    Iím curious to see if other leagues like the SUNY or NEHC consider going to the 2 game series format. I think in PWR era, thatís the format to use.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PrezdeJohnson09 View Post
    Iím curious to see if other leagues like the SUNY or NEHC consider going to the 2 game series format. I think in PWR era, thatís the format to use.
    That would be nice!

    Well it may be a while, but the rent a rink schools (SUF & JWU) may have difficulty in clearing Friday and Saturday ice, especially when Saturday could be open ended.

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    Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

    Quote Originally Posted by PrezdeJohnson09 View Post
    Iím curious to see if other leagues like the SUNY or NEHC consider going to the 2 game series format. I think in PWR era, thatís the format to use.
    For now, PWR is a two-year experiment. So, unless it becomes permanent, there is no sense considering changing the conference playoff format.
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    Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

    Quote Originally Posted by Fishman'81 View Post
    But the KRACH makes more sense.
    Does someone have the KRACH numbers for D3? It would be nice to compare the outcome.
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    Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Nubs View Post
    1-1 is better than 0-1, which is what would have happened had the NCHA not used this format. It is designed to protect the higher seeds from being upset in a one off.
    The problem with this logic is that the conference tournament isn't over yet and the only thing that matters is the PWR once the tournaments are over. Remember, with only one exception, every team in the conference tournament gets eliminated eventually by losing.

    Let's keep using Adrian as an example. The best case scenario for Adrian the rest of the NCHA tournament is they win two more games. The worst case scenario is they lose one more. The in-between scenario is they go 1-1.

    Best case: Adrian's NCHA tournament record is 3-1. That's good and it will help their PWR! But it won't matter as much because they will have won the autobid anyway. It will only matter for seeding.

    Worst case: Adrian's NCHA tournament record is 1-2. If that happens are they better off than if they just lost one game and were eliminated from the tournament? I doubt it.

    In conclusion, I'm not at all convinced the two-game plus a mini game format helps bubble teams because it allows them the opportunity to lose more games in their conference tournaments.
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    Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

    Quote Originally Posted by Russell Jaslow View Post
    Does someone have the KRACH numbers for D3? It would be nice to compare the outcome.
    https://www.uscho.com/rankings/krach/d-iii-men/


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    Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

    Quote Originally Posted by Ed Trefzger View Post
    https://www.uscho.com/rankings/krach/d-iii-men/


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    Quick glance, relatively similar but St. Norbert and Augsburg appear to be the big winners in comparison to the PWR. Augsburg jumps from 11 to 6 and St. Norbert from 5 to 3. Yes just two spots, but two very important spots over Oswego and Norwich who as of today, if you took the conference leaders would need at-larges. If St. Norbert needed an at large and all three of those teams lost, they've got a lot more breathing room with the KRACH than they do with the PWR.
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    Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

    Quote Originally Posted by KnightsOfTheRound View Post
    In conclusion, I'm not at all convinced the two-game plus a mini game format helps bubble teams because it allows them the opportunity to lose more games in their conference tournaments.
    The upside is that it also affords them the opportunity to win more games - If Adrian had not lost that Friday game they would have the opportunity to go 3-1 if they lost in the finals. That would boost them. It is a double edged sword, which a contender should take advantage of. They didn't, but they did live to play another day.
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    Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

    Quote Originally Posted by PrezdeJohnson09 View Post
    Quick glance, relatively similar but St. Norbert and Augsburg appear to be the big winners in comparison to the PWR. Augsburg jumps from 11 to 6 and St. Norbert from 5 to 3. Yes just two spots, but two very important spots over Oswego and Norwich who as of today, if you took the conference leaders would need at-larges. If St. Norbert needed an at large and all three of those teams lost, they've got a lot more breathing room with the KRACH than they do with the PWR.
    The various metrics all have their shortcomings, but here's how I'd rate them:

    1. KRACH. The most thorough.

    2. RPI. Not as thorough as the KRACH, but generally identical just the same.

    3. PWR. The worst of the three. (Consider one H2H game trumping many COP, for example... There's too little comparative data in D-3 to choose this vehicle.)

    Having said all of the above, any of them beats the snot out of the the moronic and secretive "RNK" construct.

    We're seeing some progress in D-3, at long last.

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    Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

    See and as an old person I prefer the simplest method. W-T-L
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    Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

    Quote Originally Posted by Fishman'81 View Post
    The various metrics all have their shortcomings, but here's how I'd rate them:

    1. KRACH. The most thorough.

    2. RPI. Not as thorough as the KRACH, but generally identical just the same.

    3. PWR. The worst of the three. (Consider one H2H game trumping many COP, for example... There's too little comparative data in D-3 to choose this vehicle.)

    Having said all of the above, any of them beats the snot out of the the moronic and secretive "RNK" construct.

    We're seeing some progress in D-3, at long last.
    The PWR and RPI ranking is exactly the same down through 26 spots. Does it really matter which one is better...? Seems to me to be enough games to make them statistical the same.
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