Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

[Ed Trefzger]

Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

One of the things to remember is that this current PWR formula has been arrived at in reaction to situations that have happened in D-I in previous years. Each time an undesired result happened or came close to happening, formulas were adjusted in response. The QWB replaced the TUC. The TUC used to add AQs, which really made it volatile. And the PWR also used to give a boost to last 16 games. Those all changed because of undesirable possible outcomes.

It’s transparent, but it’s also fudged and manipulated from season to season. Perhaps taking the previous D-III criteria and applying them by the book as a PairWise would be the best. We actually did that at USCHO until the powerbrokers of D-III started to play games and it became meaningless to publish.

In any case, getting rid of the smoke-filled rooms and the gaming of the criteria that went on is a great step forward.


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[Lightningvinny100]

One of the things to remember is that this current PWR formula has been arrived at in reaction to situations that have happened in D-I in previous years. Each time an undesired result

In any case, getting rid of the smoke-filled rooms and the gaming of the criteria that went on is a great step forward


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It’s going to be interesting to watch the PW rankings change in real time . To get an idea of what could happen , tomorrow’s 1pm semi final game, Amherst/Wels could shift numbers in the top 10,,, so compare the RPI numbers before and after that game,,, should give us a little idea anyway. Logic behind that thought is Wes with a win could jump NEC and NE thus creating quality win points to go up or down accordingly to those who have beat them. Could be an indicator anyway,,,, I believe when all is said and done PW teams 6 though 13 could all move around

[Birdwatcher]

Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

I was just nosing around on the NCAA site. I went to the bracket and it shows a spot for a third place game.

[pete99race]

Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

Good summary from Mathieu Webb leading into the Conference Championship weekend....

https://www.d3hockey.com/bracketolog...-what-to-watch

[Steve Day]

Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

Good summary from Mathieu Webb leading into the Conference Championship weekend....

https://www.d3hockey.com/bracketolog...-what-to-watch

Very good article Makes a lot of sense
GO CADETS

[Bartman]

Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

Good summary from Mathieu Webb leading into the Conference Championship weekend....

https://www.d3hockey.com/bracketolog...-what-to-watch

Great article. Hobart can't leave anything to chance tomorrow.

[Lightningvinny100]

Great article. Hobart can't leave anything to chance tomorrow.

It’s hard to make a case where Hobart doesn’t make it. Even if the last spot comes down to Hobart/UMB it’s hard to see UMB getting the nod while they are sitting at home watching the team they just lost to at home in the semis. Of course that’s the old way of thinking ,, this one will take the PW calculator. I expect if all the home teams win Sat that Hobart/AC/UMB will all be within nose hairs of each other . Like you said, why leave it to chance

[Russell Jaslow]

Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

I was just nosing around on the NCAA site. I went to the bracket and it shows a spot for a third place game.

Are you sure you weren't looking at the women's bracket? They still have a third place game for D3.

[Russell Jaslow]

Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

It’s hard to make a case where Hobart doesn’t make it. Even if the last spot comes down to Hobart/UMB it’s hard to see UMB getting the nod while they are sitting at home watching the team they just lost to at home in the semis. Of course that’s the old way of thinking ,, this one will take the PW calculator. I expect if all the home teams win Sat that Hobart/AC/UMB will all be within nose hairs of each other . Like you said, why leave it to chance

Last year, Minnesota-Duluth was the last one in the D1 playoffs ... by a margin of .0001. And they went on to win the national championship.

[Lightningvinny100]

Last year, Minnesota-Duluth was the last one in the D1 playoffs ... by a margin of .0001. And they went on to win the national championship.

So I just came up w a thought that is frightening for AL teams,,, maybe I’m not understanding it correctly but wouldn’t Eau Claire get a .05 QWB for beating the number 1 ranked team,,, thus propelling their RPI to over .6159 which would basically lock them into an AL bid,, shorting the AL pool to 1,,, or is it more complex then that

[Tom Coughlin]

Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

So I just came up w a thought that is frightening for AL teams,,, maybe I’m not understanding it correctly but wouldn’t Eau Claire get a .05 QWB for beating the number 1 ranked team,,, thus propelling their RPI to over .6159 which would basically lock them into an AL bid,, shorting the AL pool to 1,,, or is it more complex then that

I think there is more to it than this but that .05 probably gets averaged over the 30ish game season so it's more like a .0017 point bonus on an overall basis. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong.

[cetihcra]

Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

I think there is more to it than this but that .05 probably gets averaged over the 30ish game season so it's more like a .0017 point bonus on an overall basis. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong.

You are correct, the QWB isn't merely added, it's weighted for home/away, and averaged.

EDIT: so assuming 30 games, it would be .05*1.2 (road win bonus) / 30 = .002 RPI bump.

r

[Birdwatcher]

Are you sure you weren't looking at the women's bracket? They still have a third place game for D3.

Https://www.ncaa.com/brackets/icehockey-men/d3/2019

[Fishman'81]

Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

You are correct, the QWB isn't merely added, it's weighted for home/away, and averaged.

EDIT: so assuming 30 games, it would be .05*1.2 (road win bonus) / 30 = .002 RPI bump.

r

Jesus Q. Murphy.

D-3 just can't seem to resist laying its slimy hands on the process, one way or the other.

The raw RPI works, or better still, the KRACH, but the D-3 brass always seems determined to meddle.

[snc1]

Jesus Q. Murphy.

D-3 just can't seem to resist laying its slimy hands on the process, one way or the other.

The raw RPI works, or better still, the KRACH, but the D-3 brass always seems determined to meddle.

After years of *****ing you think youd find something else to enjoy since this dont seem to make you happy. Life is short.