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RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

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  • Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post
    Was that the 10 pin which dropped?
    Arrrgh! Spare me from all the bowling talk or I may have to go on STRIKE!

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    • Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

      What is with these turkeys...

      In any case, we need 10 points out of 12 to get to 500 in conference. Probably won't happen, but we can at least make this a wild ride. Maybe it's just me, but showing that we are the equal of our opposition is not a bad thing, considering where we were. We aren't finishing, but we're not giving up the ship. Now if we can get over that next hurdle, we can snatch success from what was a not-so-good season.

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      • Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

        Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
        What is with these turkeys...

        In any case, we need 10 points out of 12 to get to 500 in conference. Probably won't happen, but we can at least make this a wild ride. Maybe it's just me, but showing that we are the equal of our opposition is not a bad thing, considering where we were. We aren't finishing, but we're not giving up the ship. Now if we can get over that next hurdle, we can snatch success from what was a not-so-good season.
        Agree- we will not likely get a home ice position but we need to try for the best match up on the road as possible. There are a few teams that just seem to carry the play against us. The first round can be filled with surprises and if we can get through that I would consider this season a step in the right direction. We may just not have made this a good season but i think wea re playing at a level which makes it a better season and can give us some hope. of course, getting our top scorer(s) back could make the first round a bit more interesting.
        Take the shortest distance to the puck and arrive in ill humor

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        • Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

          Originally posted by DrDemento View Post
          Agree- we will not likely get a home ice position but we need to try for the best match up on the road as possible. There are a few teams that just seem to carry the play against us. The first round can be filled with surprises and if we can get through that I would consider this season a step in the right direction. We may just not have made this a good season but i think wea re playing at a level which makes it a better season and can give us some hope. of course, getting our top scorer(s) back could make the first round a bit more interesting.
          To be fair, when compared to last year, you couldn't get much worse.

          You don't need 500 to get home ice. Looking at the past few years, you've needed around 20 points to get first round home ice (ranging between 18-22 the years I look at; if WaP were still around there'd probably be a more detailed analysis). We're on 12, our max is 24, and present competitors are on 15-17. If we can go 4-2 beating who we need to beat (i.e. Dartmouth, Colgate, Princeton), we'll have a good shot. We have the Union tiebreak in hand, hopefully we can achieve the Colgate and Dartmouth tiebreaks.

          I've stopped trying to hope for specific first round matches, because really anything can happen. In 2013, I wanted Brown on account of how we did vs. the other competitors, and look what happened. It's not completely lost though, given 2016. Whomever we get, we simply need to make sure that we take care of business on that step, and not worry about anything else down the road.

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          • Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

            Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
            To be fair, when compared to last year, you couldn't get much worse.

            You don't need 500 to get home ice. Looking at the past few years, you've needed around 20 points to get first round home ice (ranging between 18-22 the years I look at; if WaP were still around there'd probably be a more detailed analysis). We're on 12, our max is 24, and present competitors are on 15-17. If we can go 4-2 beating who we need to beat (i.e. Dartmouth, Colgate, Princeton), we'll have a good shot. We have the Union tiebreak in hand, hopefully we can achieve the Colgate and Dartmouth tiebreaks.

            I've stopped trying to hope for specific first round matches, because really anything can happen. In 2013, I wanted Brown on account of how we did vs. the other competitors, and look what happened. It's not completely lost though, given 2016. Whomever we get, we simply need to make sure that we take care of business on that step, and not worry about anything else down the road.
            If it helps, I make this every week but don't post it in the projected standings thread:
            Code:
            RPI Points vs. Position
               |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12
            ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
            12 |                                                               3.6   0.0
            13 |                                                         0.1   5.2   0.0
            14 |                                                   0.0   2.0  12.9   0.0
            15 |                                                   0.4   4.2  10.2      
            16 |                                             0.0   3.2  10.4   7.6      
            17 |                                       0.0   0.2   5.2   7.0   2.3      
            18 |                                       0.0   1.6   7.9   3.6   0.4      
            19 |                                 0.0   0.2   2.1   3.6   0.6   0.0      
            20 |                           0.0   0.0   0.7   2.0   1.2   0.0   0.0      
            21 |                           0.0   0.1   0.5   0.5   0.1   0.0            
            22 |                           0.0   0.1   0.2   0.1   0.0                  
            23 |                     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                  
            24 |                     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  
            
            Bold values are the most likely outcome for each point total.
            0.0 represents outcomes that occurred in fewer than 0.05% (i.e., 500) simulations
            Blanks represent outcomes that did not occur in the simulations, though they may still be possible.
            Note: I have continued to be lazy and not code anything to handle ties between four or more teams or ties that go past the ECAC wins tiebreaker. Sorry.
            Based on the simulation, we'll need at least two more wins to earn home ice and it doesn't become the likely outcome until we hit at least 4 wins.
            RPI Pep Band
            GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
            🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

            2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
            2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
            2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

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            • Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

              sigpic

              Let's Go 'Tute!

              Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

              2012 Poser Of The Year

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              • Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

                Chase Polacek to RPI sports Athletics HoF.

                sigpic

                Let's Go 'Tute!

                Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

                2012 Poser Of The Year

                Comment


                • Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

                  Yes, it could go on the alumni thread.
                  sigpic

                  Let's Go 'Tute!

                  Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

                  2012 Poser Of The Year

                  Comment


                  • Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

                    Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post
                    Yes, it could go on the alumni thread.
                    So why isn't it?

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                    • Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

                      Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
                      So why isn't it?
                      His being elected to the RPI AHoF is connected to RPI of the present. (At least that was my thought.)
                      sigpic

                      Let's Go 'Tute!

                      Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

                      2012 Poser Of The Year

                      Comment


                      • Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

                        Do we have a bowling hall of fame at RPI?
                        Take the shortest distance to the puck and arrive in ill humor

                        Comment


                        • Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

                          Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
                          Based on the simulation, we'll need at least two more wins to earn home ice and it doesn't become the likely outcome until we hit at least 4 wins.
                          I think rather than looking at the league as a whole, maybe head to head checks with those above us show more promise. I might suggest 9th place or better seems likely based on a premise that Colgate is clearly worse than us, even though we are tied in the current standings. That leaves Union and Dartmouth to chase down. Records for the 3 teams in the 2nd half are as follows:

                          RPI: 4-6-3, 2-4-2 (conf)
                          DC: 4-6-2, 3-5-1 (conf)
                          UC: 6-5-2, 4-5 (conf)

                          These records are pretty even for the most part. Based on the point advantage of DC and UC, it looks unlikely but perhaps not as unlikely as the Krach scenario shows. The last weekend of head to head play may decide it. If UC or DC gets swept that weekend and RPI beats DC as part of the fun, then somehow in the two weeks before we only need to gain another 2 points on one or both of those teams. With all teams playing the same 4 opponents during those 2 weeks (QU, PU, CORN & Gate), it's going to require an upset by one of the two weak teams (PU and Gate) against UC or DC or an upset of Corn or Q by RPI. And RPI needs to beat PU and Gate.

                          This seems like more than an 8% possibility to me. Maybe not a likely outcome or even a 50% possibility but it feels more like a 1/3 or 1/4 scenario rather than 1/12. Then again... RPI will probably tie all 6 games ... which seems like at least an 8% possibility these days!

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                          • Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

                            Originally posted by jmhusker View Post
                            I think rather than looking at the league as a whole, maybe head to head checks with those above us show more promise. I might suggest 9th place or better seems likely based on a premise that Colgate is clearly worse than us, even though we are tied in the current standings. That leaves Union and Dartmouth to chase down. Records for the 3 teams in the 2nd half are as follows:

                            RPI: 4-6-3, 2-4-2 (conf)
                            DC: 4-6-2, 3-5-1 (conf)
                            UC: 6-5-2, 4-5 (conf)

                            These records are pretty even for the most part. Based on the point advantage of DC and UC, it looks unlikely but perhaps not as unlikely as the Krach scenario shows. The last weekend of head to head play may decide it. If UC or DC gets swept that weekend and RPI beats DC as part of the fun, then somehow in the two weeks before we only need to gain another 2 points on one or both of those teams. With all teams playing the same 4 opponents during those 2 weeks (QU, PU, CORN & Gate), it's going to require an upset by one of the two weak teams (PU and Gate) against UC or DC or an upset of Corn or Q by RPI. And RPI needs to beat PU and Gate.

                            This seems like more than an 8% possibility to me. Maybe not a likely outcome or even a 50% possibility but it feels more like a 1/3 or 1/4 scenario rather than 1/12. Then again... RPI will probably tie all 6 games ... which seems like at least an 8% possibility these days!
                            Remember that KRACH only thinks you're as good as your record. It could care less how you're playing now compared to before, and so the first half of the season is why we have 8%. And somehow, I am wondering if those two points we left on the table vs. Princeton (take the phrase for what it's worth given it was 4-1 but in hindsight it's points left on the table) are going to affect us in the final tally.

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                            • Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post
                              His being elected to the RPI AHoF is connected to RPI of the present. (At least that was my thought.)
                              Any chance that he will be added to the Ring of Honor at HFH? It’s been a few years since anyone has been added.

                              Comment


                              • Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

                                Originally posted by RPI fan 4 life View Post
                                Any chance that he will be added to the Ring of Honor at HFH? It’s been a few years since anyone has been added.
                                I'm not sure he would. Sure, 2 time PotY, but didn't the others also have impressive careers beyond RPI, whether as player or coach?

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