Anyone going to attempt to publish a PairWise ranking for D III?

[Steve Day]

Re: Anyone going to attempt to publish a PairWise ranking for D III?

Norwich is quietly 4-0-2 in the second semester with 3 wins over top-15 ranked teams and a tie with another one.

Still ALOT of work TO DO

[NU Pastime]

Re: Anyone going to attempt to publish a PairWise ranking for D III?

Norwich is quietly 4-0-2 in the second semester with 3 wins over top-15 ranked teams and a tie with another one.

The Cadets’ SOS this year is VERY strong. Part of the reason why their so high in the pairwise.

So with the games v the Top 15 teams behind us, is this our ceiling for PWR? Because I'm assuming that as the back-end of our schedule is against weaker opponents that our SOS will begin to take a hit. So, on the one hand you're (theoretically) winning more games, on the other your SOS is getting weaker at the same time. So the metrics kinda balance each other out. Does that make sense?

[PrezdeJohnson09]

So with the games v the Top 15 teams behind us, is this our ceiling for PWR? Because I'm assuming that as the back-end of our schedule is against weaker opponents that our SOS will begin to take a hit. So, on the one hand you're (theoretically) winning more games, on the other your SOS is getting weaker at the same time. So the metrics kinda balance each other out. Does that make sense?

Yes this is our ceiling as far as SOS. Now we need to keep winning the games on paper we should and then also hope some of the other teams around us, especially non-conference teams keep losing a few.

[joecct]

Re: Anyone going to attempt to publish a PairWise ranking for D III?

Gang

Look closely. The UCHC, CCC & MASCAC are outside the top 12. If anyone but Williams wins the NESCAC, Norwich is out as the At Large team on the bubble.

Now it's back to cya land

[spwood]

Re: Anyone going to attempt to publish a PairWise ranking for D III?

Gang

Look closely. The UCHC, CCC & MASCAC are outside the top 12. If anyone but Williams wins the NESCAC, Norwich is out as the At Large team on the bubble.

Now it's back to cya land

I think the stunner so far is how close St. Norbert might be to being left out. If anyone but Williams wins the NESCAC and anyone but St. Norbert wins the NCHA, I believe the Knights might be on the outside looking in as well.

As a sidebar, I wonder who the Pairwise would have selected for the tournament last year.

Finally, does the selection committee have any leeway like the Div I women do? (I believe they ignore St. Anselm even though they technically meet the qualifications and were ranked #5 in last year's rankings).

[Birdwatcher]

I think the stunner so far is how close St. Norbert might be to being left out. If anyone but Williams wins the NESCAC and anyone but St. Norbert wins the NCHA, I believe the Knights might be on the outside looking in as well.

As a sidebar, I wonder who the Pairwise would have selected for the tournament last year.

Finally, does the selection committee have any leeway like the Div I women do? (I believe they ignore St. Anselm even though they technically meet the qualifications and were ranked #5 in last year's rankings).

That is because a D2 must play a mininum of 20 D1 games to be eligible for the tourney. St As did not meet this.

[spwood]

Re: Anyone going to attempt to publish a PairWise ranking for D III?

That is because a D2 must play a mininum of 20 D1 games to be eligible for the tourney. St As did not meet this.

After they were kicked out of their league, they played 5 games with 4 other teams in the same boat. They qualified, but were ignored come tournament time. (Got that from this Bracketology article.) St. Anselm is #1 in this year's Pairwise rankings thus far.

[pete99race]

Re: Anyone going to attempt to publish a PairWise ranking for D III?

I think the stunner so far is how close St. Norbert might be to being left out. If anyone but Williams wins the NESCAC and anyone but St. Norbert wins the NCHA, I believe the Knights might be on the outside looking in as well.

That's a fact....too many ties...and the overall weak results from the majority of the NCHA teams this season has hurt.
Cheering for the Ephs!!

[joecct]

Yes this is our ceiling as far as SOS. Now we need to keep winning the games on paper we should and then also hope some of the other teams around us, especially non-conference teams keep losing a few.

SOS is not a criteria. Last year, beating JWU would hurt your RPI. This year, it doesn't.

A loss or a tie does hurt.

[cetihcra]

Re: Anyone going to attempt to publish a PairWise ranking for D III?

SOS is not a criteria. Last year, beating JWU would hurt your RPI. This year, it doesn't.

A loss or a tie does hurt.

SOS is included in RPI: 25-21-54 (%), Win%-OppWin%-OppOppWin% is how RPI is calculated. Beating bad teams does drop your RPI, however in D1 they have a caveat that any win that drops RPI is tossed out. I imagine D3 is doing the same?

r

[Ed Trefzger]

Re: Anyone going to attempt to publish a PairWise ranking for D III?

SOS is included in RPI: 25-21-54 (%), Win%-OppWin%-OppOppWin% is how RPI is calculated. Beating bad teams does drop your RPI, however in D1 they have a caveat that any win that drops RPI is tossed out. I imagine D3 is doing the same?

Yes. RPI and PairWise formulas are identical to D-I men.

[PrezdeJohnson09]

SOS is not a criteria. Last year, beating JWU would hurt your RPI. This year, it doesn't.

A loss or a tie does hurt.

Joe, I know SOS is not a criteria but it’s still part of what the PWR incorporates. So yes, just like in the old system, playing and beating good teams gives you a stronger numerical value. That’s the point I’m trying to make.

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: Anyone going to attempt to publish a PairWise ranking for D III?

A VERY rough sketch at what the selections would look like if the season ended today...still lots of hockey left to be played and most leagues have unequal number of games played with teams, which effects this as well. Took the teams currently in first place in each league and used tiebreakers (Salve over Nichols, Elmira over Wilkes)

SUNYAC - Geneseo
NESCAC - Wesleyan
NEHC - UMass Boston
CCC - Salve Regina
MASCAC - Plymouth State
UCHC - Elmira
NCHA - St. Norbert
MIAC - Augsburg

Pool C - Stevens Point
Pool C - Oswego
Pool C - Eau Claire
Pool C - Williams

Crazy to think the No. 6 ranked team in the PWR right now (Norwich) would be left out of the tournament right now if all conference leaders won.

TONS of hockey left to be played and this can and will change a lot. Right now though, I would think the only two pretty close to being a lock if not almost already clinching it are Geneseo and Stevens Point baring absolute collapses.

That makes for an 8-4 split and a very tough decision on which region has to play first round games. The East has 1, 3, 5, 7 and 8. The West has 2, 4, 9 and 10. In a perfect world, they would have 3 play-ins for the east and 1 play-in for the west so that the top 4 seeds all get the byes they deserve by the PWR...however, that's not how it has worked in the past and it would force a flight for the quarterfinal round.

Can anyone remember the last time a team flew for the quarterfinal round in the NCAA men's hockey tournament? I can't....I know it's happened but the only one I definitely know of is when Elmira flew out to Minnesota to play St. Johns in like 1993 or 1994.

[gfan]

Re: Anyone going to attempt to publish a PairWise ranking for D III?

A VERY rough sketch at what the selections would look like if the season ended today...still lots of hockey left to be played and most leagues have unequal number of games played with teams, which effects this as well. Took the teams currently in first place in each league and used tiebreakers (Salve over Nichols, Elmira over Wilkes)

SUNYAC - Geneseo
NESCAC - Wesleyan
NEHC - UMass Boston
CCC - Salve Regina
MASCAC - Plymouth State
UCHC - Elmira
NCHA - St. Norbert
MIAC - Augsburg

Pool C - Stevens Point
Pool C - Oswego
Pool C - Eau Claire
Pool C - Williams

Crazy to think the No. 6 ranked team in the PWR right now (Norwich) would be left out of the tournament right now if all conference leaders won.

TONS of hockey left to be played and this can and will change a lot. Right now though, I would think the only two pretty close to being a lock if not almost already clinching it are Geneseo and Stevens Point baring absolute collapses.

That makes for an 8-4 split and a very tough decision on which region has to play first round games. The East has 1, 3, 5, 7 and 8. The West has 2, 4, 9 and 10. In a perfect world, they would have 3 play-ins for the east and 1 play-in for the west so that the top 4 seeds all get the byes they deserve by the PWR...however, that's not how it has worked in the past and it would force a flight for the quarterfinal round.

Can anyone remember the last time a team flew for the quarterfinal round in the NCAA men's hockey tournament? I can't....I know it's happened but the only one I definitely know of is when Elmira flew out to Minnesota to play St. Johns in like 1993 or 1994.

So who gets the autobid ? The team that is in first place in the conference at the end of the regular season conference games or the team that wins the conference playoffs ???

[spwood]

Re: Anyone going to attempt to publish a PairWise ranking for D III?

So who gets the autobid ? The team that is in first place in the conference at the end of the regular season conference games or the team that wins the conference playoffs ???

The team that wins the playoffs. For the sake of Prez's argument right now, he was assuming the team leading the conference will win the conference tourney. We know that never happens though!