2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

[Rover]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

Most of the states the Rs will be defending are deep red. If anything, look at the D’s losing one more as Doug Jones is up again in a deep red state.

I don't think this is accurate. Doug Jones is indeed at risk but that's about it. GOP has ME, CO, IA and NC.

[Handyman]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

No but in 2 years if Trump loses the Governor flips will be the bellweather as to why it happened. He lost the states he beat Clinton with (Penn, Sconnie, MEEEECHIGAN) sort of bolstering the narrative that without Clinton on the ballot he is beatable.

Plus I would say Health Care being expanded was a huge deal. Even a few weeks ago people thought it might be a loser for the Dems...but the people have spoken and they want Health Care no matter what it is called.

[Handyman]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

C'mon Handy, I don't claim it as mine. I just use it as a pointed stick on your ribs: poke, poke.

All in good fun.

Yeah but you arent poking us...we just kind of look at you like you are the crazy uncle who had one too many brandies and is now dressing up like Santa even though it isnt Christmas

[Drew S.]

I don't think this is accurate. Doug Jones is indeed at risk but that's about it. GOP has ME, CO, IA and NC.

Last night allows Collins and others to be more moderate the next couple of years. I would say realistically you pick up net one in 2020 which makes it 54-46.

[SJHovey]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

Texas is **** near purple now and the influx of immigrants isn't going to reverse that color trend.

It's got a ways to go though. The Dems ran pretty much the best possible candidate in the country in that Texas Senate race against a guy probably more disliked in Texas and elsewhere than just about any politician, and they still fell a bit short. Any normal Republican candidate beats Beto by a comfortable margin.

[unofan]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

Was there any real "stop the presses!" (do they still say that?) surprise last night?

Mid-term.
The House tends to go against the party of the President. Check.
The Senate doesn't waggle much.
Most media pundits expected a lot of R governors to flop to D (given it was 33/50 not long ago).

Maybe the "blue wall" states putting a lot of state Ds in place?
Florida?
McCaskill in MO?

Honestly, last night felt "to script" in a lot of ways.

Kobach and Walker falling as the Dems go +7 governor's mansions. My personal enthusiasm is tempered because Iowa stayed red outside of the Congressional races, but the Dems still had a good down ballot night nationwide that got overshadowed by the US Senate.

Remember, prior to last night, the GOP was within something like 5 state legislative seats of having total control of enough states to push through their Constitutional Convention. Now they're nowhere close to that

[SJHovey]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

It's 26 right now. Will be about 33-35 by the time everything's done.

I'm not sure it's going to hit that high. The undecided races, all extremely close, are 7-7 between the parties at the latest vote totals. Hagedorn (R) is about to win Minnesota's 1st District. The Dems will have to sweep the other 13 to hit 35 if my math is right.

[The Sicatoka]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

Yeah but you arent poking us...we just kind of look at you like you are the crazy uncle who had one too many brandies and is now dressing up like Santa even though it isnt Christmas

You responded, so, yes, I poked.

And I don't wear red, or maroon.

[Rover]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

Was there any real "stop the presses!" (do they still say that?) surprise last night?

Mid-term.
The House tends to go against the party of the President. Check.
The Senate doesn't waggle much.
Most media pundits expected a lot of R governors to flop to D (given it was 33/50 not long ago).

Maybe the "blue wall" states putting a lot of state Ds in place?
Florida?
McCaskill in MO?

Honestly, last night felt "to script" in a lot of ways.

Agree to some extent, but it was a weird election. Dems pick up House seats in....Oklahoma? Kansas?? South Carolina??? Didn't see that coming.
But to the overall point states all retreated to their partisan leans for the most part. Dems cleaned up in House races in NY, NJ, PA and VA. GOP killed it in red state Senate seats.

Biggest surprise: OK and SC house seat pickups. On nobody's radar, even in the deepest depths of daily kos or Democracy Now websites.

Biggest disappointment: Florida hands down.

Lesson for 2020: Dems won up and down the ballot in WI, MI, and PA for statewide races. That's a good sign because lose those 3 states and Chump is doomed for re-election. Florida and Ohio are disturbing however, and in FL's case the Dems need to rebuild that useless state party from the ground up because whatever they've been doing the last 20 years ain't working.

Under the radar: The war against gerrymandering just won several important battles. MI passed referendum for independent commission drawing lines. Dems retained state supreme court advantage in North Carolina, which means Pennsylvania style lawsuit to redraw lines had better be in the works.

TBD: Will be awhile before we know how many CA GOP congresscritters went down. Simena and Tester races still up in the air as well although I've read some blurbs that the outstanding vote in MT should come in mostly for Tester.

Overall I'd give his night a B, with the Florida debacle keeping it from a higher grade.

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

So in the US House races, Iowa went about +50k for the Dems. In the governor's race, it was +40k for the GOP. I really don't understand those 90,000 people.

I voted for different sides on house/senate/state officials in Minnesota...I couldn't go full blue after never voting blue in my life...

[solovsfett]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

Sniff, sniff, sniff, where’s my thinner??? I feel so bad for Brad Schimel!


JK - https://youtu.be/i0BTdo6qGwo

[Rover]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

I'm not sure it's going to hit that high. The undecided races, all extremely close, are 7-7 between the parties at the latest vote totals. Hagedorn (R) is about to win Minnesota's 1st District. The Dems will have to sweep the other 13 to hit 35 if my math is right.

Believe uno is correct. Last I saw they were at 26 confirmed pickups in called races and are leading in about 10 others.

[The Sicatoka]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

Kobach and Walker falling as the Dems go +7 governor's mansions.

Were those really big surprises?

And frankly, I'm really interested in the D, Laura Kelly, that won the Kansas governorship: "she led a bipartisan effort to successfully balance the budget without increasing taxes." Remember: I tend to like former governors as Presidential candidates.

[Handyman]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

You responded, so, yes, I poked.

And I don't wear red, or maroon.

I respond to everything (except Flaggy) so the hunt is canned buddy

[unofan]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

I'm not sure it's going to hit that high. The undecided races, all extremely close, are 7-7 between the parties at the latest vote totals. Hagedorn (R) is about to win Minnesota's 1st District. The Dems will have to sweep the other 13 to hit 35 if my math is right.

Dems started at 193. NYT has them on their way to 229. That's a pickup of 36.

Put another way, they're at 220 right now, and leading in 8 more. NYT must think they can pick up on of the other ones that's less than a point in favor of the GOP at the moment.