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ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

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  • #31
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
    It's entirely a factor of laziness and too much hard-coding. The issue is that teams can pop out of the tie and then you have to start over and instead of doing it by logic, I explicitly coded it out for three-way ties. One day I'll make it work for n-way ties, but today is not that day.
    I tried to find it on GitHub so I could put up a PR, but no such luck. I know you sent me a copy a while back; have to see if I can find it. Of course, you've probably made a lot of updates since then.

    Popping teams out of the tie isn't all that difficult; that's what recursion is for.

    Comment


    • #32
      Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

      Midweekend update. Everyone knows whether they're staying home or heading on the road next week, but basically nothing else is set. What fun!

      Simulated Final Standings (EXHAUSTIVE search of 729 possibilities):
      1. Cornell
      2. Quinnipiac
      3. Harvard
      4. Clarkson
        —————
      5. Yale
      6. Brown
      7. Dartmouth
      8. Union
        —————
      9. Colgate
      10. RPI
      11. Princeton
      12. SLU

      Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

      Rank and Points breakdown:
      Code:
         |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
      -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Cr |  228.2 |  50.2  15.5  16.6  17.8     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.02 | 30.02
      Qu |  345.0 |  28.8  43.3  19.4   8.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.08 | 29.44
      Ha |  226.0 |  18.1  22.9  39.9  19.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.60 | 29.20
      Ck |  217.5 |   2.9  18.4  24.2  54.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  3.30 | 27.98
      Ya |  111.1 |     x     x     x     x  83.8  16.2     x     x     x     x     x     x |  5.16 | 23.56
      Br |   95.7 |     x     x     x     x     x  50.0  42.3   7.7     x     x     x     x |  6.58 | 22.11
      Da |   77.7 |     x     x     x     x  16.2  27.4  35.9  20.5     x     x     x     x |  6.61 | 22.10
      Un |  139.9 |     x     x     x     x     x   6.4  21.8  71.8     x     x     x     x |  7.65 | 20.80
      Cg |   60.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  83.5  13.2   3.3     x |  9.20 | 18.47
      RP |   61.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  10.3  44.0  45.7     x | 10.35 | 16.90
      Pr |   73.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.1  42.8  51.1     x | 10.45 | 16.89
      SL |   18.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x 100.0 | 12.00 |  6.53
      
         |  KRACH |     6     7     8   ...    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31 |AvgPts
      ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Cr |  228.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  42.2  13.4  44.3 | 30.02
      Qu |  345.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  21.1  13.5  65.5     x | 29.44
      Ha |  226.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  33.1  13.5  53.5     x | 29.20
      Ck |  217.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  44.3  13.4  42.2     x     x | 27.98
      Ya |  111.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  65.5  13.5  21.1     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.56
      Br |   95.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  37.6  13.5  48.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.11
      Da |   77.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  38.2  13.5  48.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.10
      Un |  139.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  53.5  13.5  33.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.80
      Cg |   60.7 |     x     x     x     x     x  20.0  13.5  66.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.47
      RP |   61.3 |     x     x     x     x  48.4  13.5  38.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.90
      Pr |   73.7 |     x     x     x     x  48.9  13.5  37.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.89
      SL |   18.2 |  66.6  13.5  20.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.53
      Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
      0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
      x means the outcome never occurred.
      A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
      Playoff Matchups:
      Code:
         |    Cg    RP    Pr    SL |   BYE
      ------------------------------------
      Ya |     x  16.2     x  83.8 |    NO
      Br |  10.8  16.7  72.5     x |    NO
      Da |  20.6  47.4  15.7  16.2 |    NO
      Un |  68.5  19.7  11.8     x |    NO
      Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
      RPI Pep Band
      GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
      🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

      2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
      2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
      2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

      Comment


      • #33
        Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

        The regular season is over, but this thread isn't!

        It's time for playoffs! In the first round, all four top seeds are favored, though Brown-Princeton is basically a toss-up. Moving forward, Union is the only non-bye team that is likely to threaten their quarterfinal opponent. Quinnipiac has 3:2 odds to win the tournament and will likely have a relatively easy road to the semis. The other three bye teams all have basically even odds to join Quinnipiac in the final. All of that said, there's a reason we play the games. Let's see what happens!

        Summary:
        Code:
              KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
        Qu |  355.8 |   100  92.9  65.3  41.1
        Cr |  226.9 |   100  73.6  39.9  18.2
        Ck |  218.7 |   100  72.3  37.4  16.7
        Ha |  202.9 |   100  78.8  34.4  15.8
        Da |   82.3 |  89.0  17.9   4.4   1.2
        Ya |  106.5 |  71.8  18.2   5.3   1.7
        Un |  151.2 |  82.9  29.6   9.7   4.2
        Br |   87.8 |  53.5   7.8   1.8   0.6
        Pr |   79.9 |  46.5   5.9   1.3   0.4
        Cg |   54.0 |  17.1   1.1   0.2   0.0
        RP |   57.4 |  28.2   1.7   0.3   0.1
        SL |   21.4 |  11.0   0.1   0.0   0.0
        Future Round Matchups:
        Code:
         QF|    Da    Ya    Un    Br    Pr    Cg    RP    SL 
        Qu |                    28.4  24.6  10.9  25.1  11.0
        Cr |              53.0  20.5  17.8   5.6   3.1      
        Ck |        63.9  27.4   4.4   3.8   0.5            
        Ha |  89.0   7.9   2.6   0.3   0.3                  
        
         SF|    Ck    Ha    Da    Ya    Un    Br    Pr    Cg    RP    SL 
        Qu |        38.9   8.6  11.2  25.4   4.5   3.5   0.6   0.3      
        Cr |  49.5  15.1   3.3   0.6   0.2   1.9   1.4   0.4   1.1   0.1
        Ck |        16.9   4.0   0.2   0.1   0.8   0.6   0.1   0.1   0.0
        Ha |                     4.5   2.7   0.4   0.3   0.0   0.1   0.0
        Da |                     1.1   0.6   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0      
        Ya |                           0.6   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0
        Un |                                 0.1   0.0         0.0   0.0
        Br |                                             0.0   0.0     x
        Pr |                                             0.0   0.0     x
        Cg |                                                     x     x
        
          F|    Cr    Ck    Ha    Da    Ya    Un    Br    Pr    Cg    RP    SL 
        Qu |  25.0  23.6  12.7   1.7   1.5   0.7   0.0   0.0   0.0            
        Cr |         1.5   8.8   1.0   1.7   1.6   0.1   0.1   0.0           
        Ck |               7.5   0.9   0.1   2.7   0.5   0.4   0.1   0.1   0.0
        Ha |                           1.0   3.1   0.7   0.5   0.1   0.1   0.0
        Da |                           0.1   0.5   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0      
        Ya |                                 0.5   0.1   0.1   0.0         0.0
        Un |                                       0.3   0.2         0.1   0.0
        Br |                                                   0.0   0.0   0.0
        Pr |                                                   0.0   0.0   0.0
        Cg |                                                         0.0     x
        RP |                                                               0.0
        
        0.0 denotes outcomes that occurred fewer than 500 times in the simulation.
        x denotes outcomes that are possible but did not occur.
        Blanks denote impossible outcomes.
        NOTE: I think I blanked out all of the right values, but I might have screwed that one up.
        RPI Pep Band
        GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
        🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

        2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
        2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
        2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

        Comment


        • #34
          Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

          Game one is in the books and everything is going chalk so far. There's about a 2/3 chance that all four series do indeed go chalk, though not necessarily tonight. I guess I could calculate that pretty easily but I'm not gonna.

          Summary:
          Code:
                KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
          Qu |  353.3 |   100  90.5  63.1  39.7
          Cr |  227.5 |   100  66.9  36.5  16.8
          Ck |  217.4 |   100  71.6  37.4  16.9
          Ha |  203.6 |   100  78.7  35.3  16.2
          Da |   85.0 |  96.2  20.1   5.2   1.4
          Ya |  112.6 |  89.1  24.2   7.5   2.5
          Un |  157.4 |  93.8  34.5  11.4   5.2
          Br |   95.0 |  80.8  10.8   3.0   1.1
          Pr |   74.2 |  19.2   1.8   0.4   0.1
          Cg |   51.9 |   6.2   0.3   0.1   0.0
          RP |   55.3 |  10.9   0.6   0.1   0.0
          SL |   20.5 |   3.8   0.0   0.0   0.0
          Future Round Matchups:
          Code:
           QF|    Da    Ya    Un    Br    Pr    Cg    RP    SL 
          Qu |                    65.0  15.4   5.3  10.5   3.8
          Cr |              80.5  14.7   3.5   0.8   0.4      
          Ck |        85.8  13.0   1.0   0.2   0.0            
          Ha |  96.2   3.4   0.4   0.0   0.0                  
          
           SF|    Ck    Ha    Da    Ya    Un    Br    Pr    Cg    RP    SL 
          Qu |        34.0   8.6  13.9  30.1   3.1   0.6   0.1   0.0      
          Cr |  43.2  13.7   3.4   0.3   0.0   4.8   0.8   0.2   0.4   0.0
          Ck |        20.4   5.4   0.1   0.0   2.0   0.3   0.0   0.1   0.0
          Ha |                     7.0   2.7   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0
          Da |                     1.9   0.7   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0      
          Ya |                           0.9   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0
          Un |                                 0.0   0.0         0.0     x
          Br |                                             0.0     x     x
          Pr |                                             0.0     x     x
          Cg |                                                     x     x
          
            F|    Cr    Ck    Ha    Da    Ya    Un    Br    Pr    Cg    RP    SL 
          Qu |  22.3  22.6  13.5   2.1   2.2   0.4   0.0   0.0     x            
          Cr |         1.8   8.2   1.1   2.3   0.7   0.0   0.0   0.0            
          Ck |               6.8   1.0   0.1   4.1   0.8   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0
          Ha |                           1.4   4.1   1.1   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0
          Da |                           0.2   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0      
          Ya |                                 0.9   0.3   0.0   0.0         0.0
          Un |                                       0.5   0.1         0.0   0.0
          Br |                                                   0.0   0.0   0.0
          Pr |                                                   0.0   0.0   0.0
          Cg |                                                         0.0     x
          RP |                                                                 x
          
          0.0 denotes outcomes that occurred fewer than 500 times in the simulation.
          x denotes outcomes that are possible but did not occur.
          Blanks denote impossible outcomes.
          RPI Pep Band
          GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
          🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

          2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
          2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
          2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

          Comment


          • #35
            Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

            Dartmouth emphatically shut down SLU yesterday, putting an end to a fairly uninteresting first round. As we would expect, all four home teams are predicted to advance, though Cornell is only a 5-in-8 favorite thanks to their unlucky draw of Union. As such, there is about a 1-in-3 chance that all four series once again go chalk. Looking forward, Quinnipiac is still about a 40% favorite to win the Whitelaw.

            Summary:
            Code:
                  KRACH |    QF    SF     F
            Qu |  354.7 |  87.4  60.4  38.1
            Cr |  228.0 |  62.5  34.2  15.9
            Ck |  218.0 |  71.7  37.8  17.1
            Ha |  203.0 |  81.0  36.9  17.0
            Da |   78.8 |  19.0   4.8   1.2
            Ya |  118.2 |  28.3   9.2   3.2
            Un |  162.5 |  37.5  12.7   6.0
            Br |  101.1 |  12.6   4.0   1.5
            Future Round Matchups:
            Code:
                             
             SF|    Ck    Ha    Da    Ya    Un    Br 
            Qu |        31.7   7.5  15.5  32.8      
            Cr |  39.1  12.6   2.9               7.9
            Ck |        23.6   5.5               3.4
            Ha |                     9.3   2.7   1.1
            Da |                     2.2   0.7   0.3
            Ya |                           1.3      
            
            
              F|    Cr    Ck    Ha    Da    Ya    Un    Br 
            Qu |  20.1  21.9  14.0   1.9   2.6            
            Cr |         2.2   8.2   1.0   2.8            
            Ck |               6.7   0.8         5.3   1.0
            Ha |                           1.8   4.8   1.5
            Da |                           0.2   0.7   0.2
            Ya |                                 1.2   0.5
            Un |                                       0.8
            
            0.0 denotes outcomes that occurred fewer than 500 times in the simulation.
            x denotes outcomes that are possible but did not occur.
            Blanks denote impossible outcomes.
            RPI Pep Band
            GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
            🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

            2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
            2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
            2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

            Comment


            • #36
              Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

              Mid-weekend update. We have a new favorite!

              Summary:
              Code:
                    KRACH |    QF    SF     F
              Qu |  316.0 |  54.5  34.8  20.8
              Cr |  209.4 |  29.6  16.6   7.8
              Ck |  229.1 |  89.1  51.4  26.3
              Ha |  212.1 |  93.1  46.9  23.6
              Da |   76.3 |   6.9   1.9   0.5
              Ya |  113.2 |  10.9   3.9   1.4
              Un |  175.6 |  70.4  29.2  13.9
              Br |  112.6 |  45.5  15.3   5.7
              Future Round Matchups:
              Code:
               SF|    Ck    Ha    Da    Ya    Un    Br
              Qu |        13.3   1.0   1.8  38.4      
              Cr |  14.4   1.7   0.1              13.5
              Ck |        43.0   3.2              28.5
              Ha |                     5.3  26.6   3.2
              Da |                     0.4   2.0   0.2
              Ya |                           3.5      
              
                F|    Cr    Ck    Ha    Da    Ya    Un    Br 
              Qu |   4.9  16.4  12.1   0.5   1.0            
              Cr |         4.2   6.6   0.3   0.6            
              Ck |              12.5   0.5        15.5   2.2
              Ha |                           1.1   7.6   7.0
              Da |                           0.0   0.3   0.3
              Ya |                                 0.5   0.7
              Un |                                       5.2
              
              0.0 denotes outcomes that occurred fewer than 500 times in the simulation.
              x denotes outcomes that are possible but did not occur.
              Blanks denote impossible outcomes.
              RPI Pep Band
              GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
              🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

              2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
              2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
              2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

              Comment


              • #37
                Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

                I really dislike every team left, but I'm going to pull for maximum chaos and a Brown title.

                Summary:
                Code:
                      KRACH |    SF     F
                Cr |  236.2 |  65.8  33.2
                Ck |  241.5 |  52.1  29.1
                Ha |  222.3 |  47.9  25.9
                Br |  122.5 |  34.2  11.8
                Finals Matchups:
                Code:
                  F|    Ck    Ha    Br
                Cr |  34.3  31.5      
                Ck |              17.8
                Ha |              16.4
                RPI Pep Band
                GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                Comment

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