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Thread: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

  1. #1
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,554

    ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Here we are again, staring another ECAC season in the face and wondering, "What will a stupid computer say is bound to happen at the end of the year? Doesn't it know that literally half the league hasn't even played yet? Don't I usually wait until the first week has come and gone to ask this question? Hasn't lugnut92 worn out this bit?"

    Anyway, if you're new here, I make weekly posts simulating out the remaining ECAC season using KRACH. While KRACH does allow us to make predictions about the outcome of the season, it has some caveats: mostly that it only cares about wins and losses, so much so that "ties" aren't in its vocabulary. It also does not include any adjustments for home-ice advantage, injuries, or anything else that may alter a team's working strength for a given game. Also, until there is an unbroken chain of wins such that you can say any team is better than any other team (i.e., Team A is better than team X because A beat B, B beat C, C beat D, etc.), we have to give every team a tie against a hypothetical perfectly average team. All that said, it's by far the easiest rating system to calculate so it's the one I choose to use with my limited skill in Python.

    Every week, I run out the remaining season 1,000,000 times, which may sound like a lot until you consider that there are 955,004,950,796,825,236,893,190,701,774,414,011,91 9,935,138,974,343,129,836,853,841 different ways an ECAC schedule can play out. When it's done, I post the simulated final standings based on average points earned by each team over the many simulations. I also post the likelihood that each team ends in each position or with a given number of points. Finally, I post the likelihood of any given first round matchup. As you can imagine, a lot of this will change wildly over the course of the season, especially as the Ivies play their first games. I'm just ready for meaningful hockey so I'm posting this earlier than usual. So here we go:

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^62.98 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. Union
    3. Clarkson
    4. Colgate
    5. Harvard
    6. Dartmouth
    7. Yale
    8. Princeton
    9. Cornell
    10. Brown
    11. SLU
    12. RPI

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. Until later in the season, KRACH includes a hypothetical tie to make all ratings real and finite.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  709.1 |  60.1  33.8   5.1   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.47 | 35.41
    Un |  542.9 |  36.9  50.3   9.9   2.0   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  1.80 | 33.90
    Ck |  210.1 |   2.5  10.8  41.5  19.2  10.7   6.5   4.1   2.5   1.5   0.7   0.1   0.0 |  3.88 | 27.07
    Cg |  119.6 |   0.2   1.4  10.3  16.0  15.3  14.0  12.7  11.3   9.5   7.1   1.9   0.3 |  6.19 | 22.22
    Ha |  100.0 |   0.1   0.6   5.6  10.4  12.1  13.1  13.6  13.8  13.6  12.2   3.9   0.8 |  7.03 | 20.64
    Da |  100.0 |   0.1   0.6   5.5  10.3  12.2  13.1  13.6  13.9  13.7  12.3   3.9   0.8 |  7.04 | 20.63
    Ya |  100.0 |   0.1   0.6   5.5  10.3  12.2  13.1  13.6  13.8  13.7  12.3   3.9   0.8 |  7.04 | 20.63
    Pr |  100.0 |   0.1   0.6   5.5  10.3  12.2  13.2  13.6  13.8  13.7  12.3   3.9   0.8 |  7.04 | 20.63
    Cr |  100.0 |   0.1   0.6   5.6  10.3  12.1  13.1  13.6  13.9  13.7  12.2   4.0   0.8 |  7.04 | 20.63
    Br |  100.0 |   0.1   0.6   5.5  10.3  12.1  13.0  13.6  13.9  13.8  12.3   4.0   0.8 |  7.05 | 20.62
    SL |   33.0 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   2.2   4.7  12.0  43.9  35.4 | 10.99 | 11.64
    RP |   25.6 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.8   2.2   6.6  30.4  59.4 | 11.43 |  9.97
    
       |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  709.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.8   3.0   4.6   6.5   8.6  10.6  12.0  12.4  11.7   9.8   7.5   4.9   2.7   1.3   0.4   0.1 | 35.41
    Un |  542.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.9   1.6   2.6   4.0   5.8   7.6   9.4  11.0  11.7  11.5  10.3   8.4   6.2   4.1   2.3   1.1   0.5   0.1   0.0 | 33.90
    Ck |  210.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.3   2.0   3.1   4.3   5.8   7.3   8.6   9.7  10.0  10.0   9.2   7.9   6.4   4.8   3.3   2.2   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 27.07
    Cg |  119.6 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.0   3.1   4.3   5.8   7.2   8.5   9.3   9.7   9.6   8.8   7.8   6.5   5.0   3.6   2.5   1.6   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 22.22
    Ha |  100.0 |     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.6   7.9   9.0   9.7   9.7   9.2   8.3   6.9   5.5   4.1   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 20.64
    Da |  100.0 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.6   8.0   9.1   9.6   9.8   9.2   8.3   7.0   5.5   4.1   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 20.63
    Ya |  100.0 |     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.7   7.9   9.0   9.7   9.8   9.2   8.2   7.0   5.5   4.2   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x | 20.63
    Pr |  100.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.7   8.0   9.0   9.7   9.7   9.2   8.2   7.0   5.5   4.1   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x | 20.63
    Cr |  100.0 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.6   8.1   9.1   9.7   9.6   9.2   8.2   7.0   5.5   4.1   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 20.63
    Br |  100.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.9   5.2   6.6   8.0   9.1   9.7   9.7   9.2   8.2   7.0   5.5   4.1   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x | 20.62
    SL |   33.0 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.5   5.2   7.2   9.0  10.3  10.9  10.8   9.9   8.4   6.8   5.1   3.6   2.4   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.64
    RP |   25.6 |   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.6   4.4   6.6   8.7  10.4  11.4  11.5  10.6   9.2   7.3   5.5   3.8   2.6   1.6   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.97
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Qu    Un    Ck    Cg    Ha    Da    Ya    Pr    Cr    Br    SL    RP |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1 |  99.7
    Un |     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.4 |  99.1
    Ck |   0.0   0.0         0.6   1.2   1.2   1.2   1.2   1.2   1.2   7.3   8.7 |  73.9
    Cg |   0.0   0.0   0.3         4.1   4.2   4.1   4.2   4.1   4.2  13.6  14.5 |  27.8
    Ha |   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.9         4.9   4.9   4.9   4.9   5.0  12.5  12.4 |  16.7
    Da |   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.0   4.9         4.9   4.9   4.9   5.0  12.4  12.4 |  16.5
    Ya |   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.9   4.9   4.9         4.9   4.9   4.9  12.4  12.5 |  16.5
    Pr |   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.0   4.9   5.0   4.9         4.9   4.9  12.5  12.4 |  16.6
    Cr |   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.0   4.9   4.9   4.9   4.9         5.0  12.4  12.5 |  16.6
    Br |     x   0.0   0.3   2.9   4.9   4.9   5.0   4.9   5.0        12.4  12.4 |  16.4
    SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   0.5   0.6   0.5   0.5   0.5   0.5         0.3 |   0.1
    RP |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.1       |   0.0
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place

  2. #2
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,554

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    The season started woo! What a difference a week makes, as RPI jumps from 12th to 2nd and six teams, you know, actually played games.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^61.07 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. RPI
    3. Dartmouth
    4. Clarkson
    5. Yale
    6. Union
    7. Princeton
    8. Colgate
    9. Harvard
    10. Cornell
    11. Brown
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. Until later in the season, KRACH includes a hypothetical tie to make all ratings real and finite.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  943.8 |  86.6  10.0   2.4   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  1.18 | 37.13
    RP |  198.8 |   5.5  31.8  24.4  17.4  11.5   6.5   2.3   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  3.30 | 29.81
    Da |  213.0 |   3.6  22.4  22.1  19.3  15.8  11.1   4.3   1.3   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  3.79 | 28.69
    Ck |  199.6 |   2.4  16.6  19.2  19.5  18.2  14.7   6.6   2.3   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.20 | 27.75
    Ya |  162.2 |   1.2  10.4  14.6  17.9  20.2  20.3  10.4   4.0   0.9   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.74 | 26.48
    Un |  221.0 |   0.8   7.9  14.9  19.7  22.2  20.5   9.7   3.4   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.77 | 26.43
    Pr |   77.8 |   0.0   0.5   1.3   2.9   6.1  12.9  28.8  27.9  13.7   4.3   1.3   0.3 |  7.33 | 20.26
    Cg |   73.0 |   0.0   0.4   1.0   2.3   5.0  11.2  26.3  30.4  16.0   5.4   1.6   0.4 |  7.53 | 19.74
    Ha |   46.9 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   2.5   9.2  20.6  36.2  18.7   8.7   3.2 |  8.95 | 15.85
    Cr |   25.6 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.6   5.6  16.3  31.7  26.8  17.7 | 10.29 | 12.02
    Br |   21.8 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   2.9  10.2  24.3  33.0  29.0 | 10.73 | 10.67
    SL |   15.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.2   5.2  15.3  28.6  49.4 | 11.19 |  9.17
    
       |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  943.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.7   2.9   4.7   6.9   9.5  11.9  13.4  13.7  12.3   9.7   6.5   3.5   1.4   0.4 | 37.13
    RP |  198.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.9   3.0   4.4   6.1   7.9   9.6  10.7  11.3  10.8   9.6   7.8   5.9   4.0   2.5   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 29.81
    Da |  213.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.1   3.3   4.7   6.4   8.0   9.5  10.5  10.8  10.3   9.1   7.5   5.7   4.0   2.5   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 28.69
    Ck |  199.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.3   2.2   3.3   4.7   6.3   7.9   9.2  10.1  10.5  10.0   9.0   7.5   5.8   4.2   2.8   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 27.75
    Ya |  162.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.5   2.5   3.7   5.2   6.8   8.4   9.6  10.4  10.4   9.8   8.6   7.0   5.2   3.8   2.4   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 26.48
    Un |  221.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.2   3.4   5.0   6.8   8.7  10.2  11.1  11.2  10.5   9.0   7.1   5.1   3.3   1.9   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 26.43
    Pr |   77.8 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.8   2.8   4.2   5.7   7.3   8.8   9.8  10.2  10.1   9.3   7.9   6.4   4.8   3.4   2.2   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.26
    Cg |   73.0 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.4   2.3   3.5   5.0   6.6   8.1   9.4  10.0  10.3   9.7   8.7   7.1   5.6   4.1   2.8   1.8   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.74
    Ha |   46.9 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   1.9   3.2   4.7   6.5   8.2   9.7  10.6  10.8  10.1   8.9   7.3   5.6   4.1   2.7   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.85
    Cr |   25.6 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.5   2.7   4.3   6.2   8.3  10.1  11.0  11.3  10.7   9.3   7.5   5.7   4.0   2.7   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.02
    Br |   21.8 |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   2.9   4.9   7.1   9.2  10.9  11.7  11.6  10.5   8.8   6.9   5.0   3.4   2.1   1.2   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.67
    SL |   15.9 |   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.9   3.7   5.9   8.4  10.5  11.9  12.2  11.5   9.9   7.8   5.8   4.0   2.5   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.17
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Qu    RP    Da    Ck    Ya    Un    Pr    Cg    Ha    Cr    Br    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |           x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1 |  99.7
    RP |     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.3   1.6   4.6   6.0   7.9 |  79.1
    Da |     x   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   0.6   3.0   7.4   9.4  11.6 |  67.4
    Ck |     x   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.7   0.9   4.2   9.7  12.0  14.3 |  57.6
    Ya |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0   1.1   1.4   6.2  13.0  15.5  17.6 |  44.1
    Un |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         1.0   1.3   5.9  13.1  15.9  18.6 |  43.4
    Pr |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2         6.3  20.6  19.0  16.3  12.8 |   4.8
    Cg |     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.2   5.6        21.6  18.2  15.3  11.6 |   3.7
    Ha |     x   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.3   7.6   9.1         6.8   5.1   3.4 |   0.3
    Cr |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   1.8   2.1   2.2         0.7   0.4 |   0.0
    Br |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.9   1.0   1.0   0.5         0.2 |   0.0
    SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.4   0.4   0.2   0.1       |   0.0
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place

  3. #3
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,554

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    The period of instability continues as half the league plays their first conference games of the season and everyone's sample size gets just a little bit bigger. Quinnipiac looks to be in pretty good position and Brown and SLU are who we thought they were, but it's hard to make any conclusions with like four full months left to play.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^55.35 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. Dartmouth
    3. Princeton
    4. Union
    5. Clarkson
    6. RPI
    7. Cornell
    8. Yale
    9. Harvard
    10. Colgate
    11. Brown
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. Until later in the season, KRACH includes a hypothetical tie to make all ratings real and finite.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  379.3 |  45.3  24.8  13.7   7.9   4.5   2.4   1.0   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.14 | 32.24
    Da |  251.7 |  26.6  25.9  18.0  12.3   8.4   5.2   2.5   0.9   0.1   0.0     x     x |  2.81 | 30.62
    Pr |  176.7 |   9.9  15.0  17.7  16.7  14.9  12.4   8.1   4.1   1.1   0.1   0.0     x |  4.09 | 28.05
    Un |  206.0 |   6.5  11.7  15.9  17.9  17.4  14.8   9.6   4.8   1.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.43 | 27.28
    Ck |  169.3 |   6.0  10.5  14.5  16.6  17.1  15.7  11.3   6.2   2.0   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  4.65 | 26.91
    RP |  127.2 |   4.3   8.5  13.0  16.2  17.8  17.2  12.9   7.4   2.5   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  4.91 | 26.38
    Cr |   94.3 |   1.0   2.6   4.9   7.9  11.6  16.8  24.1  19.9   9.7   1.4   0.1   0.0 |  6.41 | 23.37
    Ya |   86.0 |   0.3   0.8   2.0   3.7   6.4  11.1  19.8  31.8  20.9   2.9   0.3   0.0 |  7.35 | 21.31
    Ha |   63.7 |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.9   4.3  10.0  21.7  45.6  12.4   2.5   0.4 |  8.50 | 18.29
    Cg |   31.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   2.7  13.1  53.1  22.0   8.2 | 10.17 | 12.61
    Br |   17.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.3  18.6  44.4  34.4 | 11.10 |  9.18
    SL |   13.3 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.2  11.1  30.7  56.9 | 11.43 |  7.76
    
       |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  379.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.2   3.5   5.1   7.0   8.9  10.6  11.6  11.7  10.9   9.2   7.0   4.7   2.8   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.0     x     x | 32.24
    Da |  251.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.9   3.1   4.6   6.4   8.3   9.9  11.0  11.4  10.9   9.5   7.7   5.4   3.7   2.1   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x | 30.62
    Pr |  176.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.8   2.8   4.3   5.8   7.5   9.0  10.2  10.6  10.5   9.5   8.1   6.3   4.6   3.0   1.9   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 28.05
    Un |  206.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.4   2.3   3.6   5.3   7.1   8.9  10.5  11.2  11.3  10.2   8.8   6.7   4.8   3.0   1.8   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 27.28
    Ck |  169.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.2   1.9   3.0   4.4   6.1   7.8   9.2  10.3  10.6  10.4   9.3   7.8   6.0   4.4   2.9   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 26.91
    RP |  127.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.4   2.3   3.6   5.3   7.0   8.8  10.2  11.0  10.9  10.1   8.6   6.8   5.0   3.3   2.1   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 26.38
    Cr |   94.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.6   2.6   3.9   5.5   7.2   8.7   9.9  10.5  10.4   9.5   8.1   6.6   5.0   3.5   2.3   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 23.37
    Ya |   86.0 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.5   3.9   5.6   7.5   9.0  10.3  10.7  10.5   9.6   8.2   6.5   4.8   3.3   2.1   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 21.31
    Ha |   63.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.5   3.9   5.6   7.5   9.0  10.3  10.9  10.6   9.6   8.2   6.5   4.8   3.3   2.1   1.2   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.29
    Cg |   31.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.7   3.1   5.0   7.2   9.3  10.9  11.6  11.5  10.4   8.7   6.8   4.9   3.3   2.1   1.2   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.61
    Br |   17.7 |     x   0.1   0.4   1.4   3.0   5.5   8.3  11.1  12.8  13.2  12.3  10.4   8.0   5.6   3.6   2.1   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.18
    SL |   13.3 |   0.2   0.7   2.0   4.0   6.8   9.6  12.0  13.2  12.9  11.4   9.3   6.9   4.7   2.9   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.76
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Qu    Da    Pr    Un    Ck    RP    Cr    Ya    Ha    Cg    Br    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.5   2.8   3.4 |  91.8
    Da |   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   1.1   3.3   5.7   6.6 |  82.8
    Pr |   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.9   3.8   8.8  12.3  13.2 |  59.4
    Un |   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.1   0.1   0.5   1.1   4.3  10.4  14.5  15.4 |  52.0
    Ck |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1         0.2   0.6   1.4   5.3  11.7  15.0  15.9 |  47.5
    RP |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1         0.7   1.7   6.2  13.2  16.4  16.9 |  42.0
    Cr |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.3   0.4         5.3  14.6  20.3  16.3  14.8 |  16.5
    Ya |   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.4   0.6   0.7   3.1        24.0  18.5  11.8   9.8 |   6.8
    Ha |   0.0   0.1   0.5   0.6   0.9   1.1   5.2  12.3         8.8   4.7   3.8 |   1.2
    Cg |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.7   1.0   1.1         0.2   0.1 |   0.0
    Br |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.0         0.0 |    NO
    SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place

  4. #4
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,554

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Movin' right along, boop-a-doop boop-a-doop...

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^51.53 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Princeton
    2. Quinnipiac
    3. Union
    4. Cornell
    5. Dartmouth
    6. Clarkson
    7. RPI
    8. Harvard
    9. Yale
    10. Brown
    11. Colgate
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. Until later in the season, KRACH includes a hypothetical tie to make all ratings real and finite.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Pr |  371.1 |  71.9  17.2   6.5   2.7   1.1   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.46 | 34.19
    Qu |  254.4 |  11.5  25.5  22.4  17.1  11.7   6.8   3.3   1.3   0.4   0.0   0.0     x |  3.35 | 28.97
    Un |  226.9 |   4.9  19.0  21.3  19.6  15.6  10.2   5.7   2.7   1.0   0.1   0.0     x |  3.95 | 27.61
    Cr |  160.2 |   6.7  16.8  17.9  17.6  15.7  11.7   7.6   4.1   1.7   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  4.17 | 27.40
    Da |  164.8 |   3.6  14.6  18.0  19.0  17.6  13.1   8.3   4.1   1.5   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  4.36 | 26.86
    Ck |  120.0 |   1.1   4.5   7.6  11.3  15.5  19.1  17.5  13.2   8.3   1.6   0.3   0.0 |  5.92 | 23.95
    RP |   89.6 |   0.2   1.5   3.7   7.0  11.5  17.2  21.6  19.5  14.2   2.9   0.6   0.0 |  6.74 | 22.41
    Ha |   85.7 |   0.1   0.5   1.5   3.3   6.4  11.6  18.2  25.4  25.6   6.1   1.4   0.1 |  7.58 | 20.69
    Ya |   78.8 |   0.0   0.4   1.0   2.4   4.9   9.6  16.3  25.3  31.5   7.1   1.5   0.1 |  7.83 | 20.06
    Br |   30.8 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   2.1   7.9  42.1  40.5   6.7 | 10.39 | 12.84
    Cg |   32.4 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   2.3   7.8  36.7  43.2   8.9 | 10.45 | 12.52
    SL |   10.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   3.1  12.5  84.2 | 11.81 |  6.51
    
       |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Pr |  371.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   2.0   3.3   5.0   7.1   9.2  11.1  12.2  12.4  11.2   9.3   6.7   4.3   2.3   1.1   0.3   0.1     x | 34.19
    Qu |  254.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.0   5.7   7.7   9.5  11.0  11.6  11.4  10.2   8.4   6.1   4.2   2.4   1.3   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x | 28.97
    Un |  226.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.7   2.9   4.4   6.4   8.5  10.5  11.6  12.2  11.3   9.8   7.5   5.3   3.2   1.8   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 27.61
    Cr |  160.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.0   1.6   2.6   3.8   5.3   7.0   8.5   9.7  10.3  10.3   9.6   8.4   6.8   5.2   3.6   2.4   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 27.40
    Da |  164.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.7   2.8   4.3   6.1   8.0   9.7  11.0  11.4  11.0   9.6   7.9   5.8   4.0   2.4   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 26.86
    Ck |  120.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.2   2.0   3.1   4.5   6.1   7.7   9.2  10.1  10.5  10.0   9.1   7.6   6.0   4.4   3.0   1.9   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 23.95
    RP |   89.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.1   3.4   5.3   7.1   9.1  10.4  11.4  11.2  10.3   8.7   6.9   4.9   3.2   1.9   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.41
    Ha |   85.7 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.1   4.8   6.6   8.6  10.1  11.1  11.1  10.5   9.0   7.3   5.3   3.7   2.3   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.69
    Ya |   78.8 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.5   4.1   5.9   8.1   9.8  11.1  11.4  11.0   9.6   7.9   5.9   4.2   2.7   1.6   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.06
    Br |   30.8 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.2   3.9   6.5   9.0  11.4  12.5  12.7  11.5   9.5   7.2   5.0   3.2   1.9   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.84
    Cg |   32.4 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.8   3.3   5.2   7.4   9.5  11.0  11.6  11.3  10.2   8.5   6.6   4.7   3.2   2.0   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.52
    SL |   10.9 |   0.5   1.7   4.2   7.5  10.8  13.3  14.2  13.4  11.3   8.6   6.0   3.9   2.3   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.51
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Pr    Qu    Un    Cr    Da    Ck    RP    Ha    Ya    Br    Cg    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Pr |         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.3   1.0 |  98.4
    Qu |   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   0.7   5.0   5.3  10.8 |  76.5
    Un |   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.4   0.6   1.1   1.5   7.8   8.1  14.6 |  64.8
    Cr |   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.1   0.4   0.7   1.6   2.5   9.4   9.6  14.9 |  59.0
    Da |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1         0.4   0.7   1.9   2.4  10.3  10.6  16.7 |  55.2
    Ck |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2         2.9   5.1   6.5  17.2  17.1  15.9 |  24.6
    RP |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.4   0.3   2.0         7.9  10.0  18.5  17.9  12.5 |  12.5
    Ha |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.4   2.9   5.3        15.0  15.1  14.4   7.5 |   5.3
    Ya |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   0.5   3.4   6.1  13.1        13.3  12.9   5.9 |   3.8
    Br |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.7   0.7         0.3   0.1 |   0.0
    Cg |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   0.8   0.4         0.1 |   0.0
    SL |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |   0.0
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place

  5. #5
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,554

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    I kind of forgot that I had to do this because RPI didn't play last weekend and thus college hockey must not have existed. Anyway, we don't need the fake tie any more which is nice and we don't need the whole 0-44 range in the point table since we don't have any league-undefeated teams. Cool cool cool.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^49.62 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. Cornell
    3. Union
    4. Dartmouth
    5. Princeton
    6. Clarkson
    7. Harvard
    8. RPI
    9. Yale
    10. Colgate
    11. Brown
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  422.9 |  61.4  21.0   9.4   4.6   2.2   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.70 | 32.45
    Cr |  195.6 |  12.6  22.9  19.3  15.3  11.8   8.4   5.4   3.0   1.1   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  3.60 | 28.30
    Un |  265.9 |  10.3  19.5  19.7  17.1  13.6   9.5   5.9   3.1   1.2   0.2   0.0     x |  3.80 | 27.75
    Da |  187.5 |   7.2  14.5  16.7  17.0  15.6  12.7   8.7   5.0   2.1   0.3   0.0   0.0 |  4.32 | 26.85
    Pr |  168.4 |   4.6  10.9  15.7  17.6  17.0  14.4  10.3   6.2   2.8   0.4   0.0   0.0 |  4.67 | 26.25
    Ck |  148.7 |   3.0   7.1  10.2  12.8  15.0  16.3  14.9  11.7   7.2   1.7   0.1   0.0 |  5.53 | 24.77
    Ha |  131.7 |   0.5   2.2   4.4   7.1  10.6  15.0  19.2  20.8  15.7   4.3   0.3   0.0 |  6.77 | 22.58
    RP |   95.0 |   0.3   1.5   3.3   5.7   9.0  13.6  19.1  22.3  19.2   5.4   0.5   0.0 |  7.08 | 22.01
    Ya |   88.1 |   0.1   0.5   1.2   2.6   4.8   8.4  14.1  22.5  34.2  10.4   1.1   0.1 |  7.93 | 20.18
    Cg |   44.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.9   5.0  14.5  57.0  17.3   3.1 |  9.88 | 14.90
    Br |   21.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.8  16.5  60.0  21.4 | 11.00 | 10.72
    SL |   14.3 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.7  20.5  75.5 | 11.71 |  7.23
    
       |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  422.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.3   6.4   8.9  11.2  12.9  13.1  12.4  10.0   7.5   4.5   2.4   0.8   0.3     x     x | 32.45
    Cr |  195.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.4   3.7   5.4   7.1   8.8  10.2  10.9  10.9  10.1   8.5   6.8   4.9   3.3   2.0   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 28.30
    Un |  265.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.6   2.7   4.2   6.1   8.2  10.2  11.5  12.1  11.5  10.1   7.8   5.7   3.5   2.0   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x | 27.75
    Da |  187.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.9   4.3   6.1   8.0   9.7  10.9  11.3  11.0   9.6   7.8   5.8   4.1   2.4   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 26.85
    Pr |  168.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.1   3.5   5.3   7.4   9.3  11.0  11.7  11.7  10.5   8.7   6.5   4.5   2.7   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 26.25
    Ck |  148.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.2   3.4   4.8   6.4   8.0   9.3  10.2  10.4  10.0   8.9   7.4   5.8   4.2   2.8   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0 | 24.77
    Ha |  131.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   2.0   3.3   4.9   6.7   8.7  10.1  11.1  11.1  10.4   8.9   7.2   5.2   3.6   2.2   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 22.58
    RP |   95.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.1   6.0   7.9   9.8  11.0  11.5  10.9   9.8   7.8   6.0   4.1   2.6   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 22.01
    Ya |   88.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.4   3.9   5.7   7.8   9.5  10.9  11.3  11.0   9.8   8.1   6.2   4.4   2.9   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.18
    Cg |   44.5 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.6   4.3   6.5   8.6  10.6  11.5  11.8  10.8   9.3   7.3   5.5   3.7   2.4   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.90
    Br |   21.3 |     x     x     x   0.2   0.6   1.8   3.7   6.7   9.6  12.4  13.7  13.5  11.8   9.4   6.7   4.4   2.7   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.72
    SL |   14.3 |   0.3   1.0   2.8   5.3   8.4  11.3  13.1  13.6  12.5  10.4   7.9   5.5   3.5   2.1   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.23
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Qu    Cr    Un    Da    Pr    Ck    Ha    RP    Ya    Cg    Br    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.1   1.9 |  96.4
    Cr |   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.6   0.8   2.1   5.4   8.5  10.8 |  70.1
    Un |   0.0   0.0         0.1   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.0   1.9   6.0   9.6  12.4 |  66.6
    Da |   0.0   0.1   0.0         0.1   0.4   1.2   1.2   3.4   8.5  12.5  14.8 |  55.5
    Pr |   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2         0.5   1.4   2.1   3.5   9.9  14.1  16.2 |  48.8
    Ck |   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.3         2.4   3.7   6.6  13.6  15.7  15.3 |  33.1
    Ha |   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.8         5.6  12.6  17.3  14.9  11.9 |  14.2
    RP |   0.0   0.3   0.4   0.6   0.7   2.0   5.1        13.7  17.2  13.7  10.4 |  10.8
    Ya |   0.0   0.4   0.4   0.7   1.0   3.0   7.3   9.0        13.5   8.8   5.9 |   4.4
    Cg |   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.6   1.8   2.0         0.8   0.4 |   0.2
    Br |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1         0.0 |   0.0
    SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place

  6. #6
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,554

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Post-thanksgiving update. Just KRACH things.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^49.62 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. Union
    3. Clarkson
    4. Cornell
    5. Princeton
    6. Harvard
    7. Dartmouth
    8. RPI
    9. Yale
    10. Colgate
    11. Brown
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  468.5 |  67.4  19.9   7.5   3.0   1.3   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.54 | 32.80
    Un |  315.1 |  16.3  31.0  20.7  13.1   8.3   5.1   3.1   1.6   0.7   0.1   0.0     x |  3.07 | 28.87
    Ck |  183.2 |   6.7  14.9  18.3  16.1  13.4  10.9   8.5   6.3   4.0   0.9   0.0   0.0 |  4.43 | 26.56
    Cr |  140.1 |   4.4  13.6  16.8  16.6  14.3  11.9   9.5   7.2   4.6   1.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.68 | 26.09
    Pr |  145.9 |   2.7   8.5  13.4  16.1  16.4  14.6  12.1   9.2   5.8   1.3   0.1   0.0 |  5.17 | 25.20
    Ha |  145.6 |   0.7   3.8   7.0  10.0  12.5  14.6  15.9  16.1  14.6   4.6   0.2   0.0 |  6.39 | 23.23
    Da |  104.8 |   0.9   3.7   6.7   9.7  12.5  14.8  16.2  16.4  14.3   4.6   0.3   0.0 |  6.41 | 23.09
    RP |   97.6 |   0.4   2.3   4.9   7.8  10.7  13.4  15.9  18.1  19.3   6.6   0.5   0.0 |  6.87 | 22.39
    Ya |  123.1 |   0.5   2.2   4.6   7.2  10.0  12.9  16.0  19.1  21.1   6.0   0.4   0.0 |  6.94 | 22.25
    Cg |   50.0 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.7   5.8  14.4  59.0  14.0   1.8 |  9.73 | 15.77
    Br |   21.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   1.2  13.6  65.8  19.1 | 11.02 | 10.82
    SL |   13.3 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.3  18.6  79.0 | 11.76 |  6.94
    
       |  KRACH |     x     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  468.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   2.1   3.5   5.5   8.0  10.4  12.6  13.5  13.2  11.2   8.5   5.3   2.9   1.1   0.3     x     x | 32.80
    Un |  315.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.4   3.8   5.7   7.9  10.0  11.7  12.4  12.2  10.6   8.5   5.8   3.6   1.8   0.8   0.2   0.1     x     x     x     x | 28.87
    Ck |  183.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.5   2.4   3.5   5.0   6.6   8.3   9.5  10.4  10.5   9.9   8.7   7.2   5.4   3.9   2.5   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 26.56
    Cr |  140.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.8   4.1   5.9   7.6   9.2  10.3  10.8  10.5   9.6   8.0   6.3   4.5   3.0   1.8   1.1   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 26.09
    Pr |  145.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.2   3.6   5.5   7.5   9.5  10.9  11.8  11.4  10.4   8.4   6.5   4.3   2.8   1.5   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 25.20
    Ha |  145.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.4   2.4   3.8   5.5   7.4   9.1  10.5  11.1  11.1  10.0   8.5   6.4   4.7   3.0   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 23.23
    Da |  104.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.1   5.8   7.8   9.4  10.8  11.2  10.9   9.6   8.0   6.1   4.4   2.8   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 23.09
    RP |   97.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.2   3.5   5.3   7.2   9.1  10.4  11.3  11.1  10.2   8.6   6.8   4.8   3.2   1.9   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 22.39
    Ya |  123.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.4   3.9   5.5   7.5   9.3  10.7  11.2  11.0   9.9   8.3   6.4   4.6   3.0   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 22.25
    Cg |   50.0 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.6   2.9   4.7   6.7   8.8  10.4  11.4  11.4  10.5   9.0   7.2   5.3   3.6   2.3   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.77
    Br |   21.9 |     x     x     x   0.1   0.5   1.7   3.5   6.4   9.4  12.2  13.6  13.6  12.0   9.7   7.0   4.6   2.8   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.82
    SL |   13.3 |   0.4   1.3   3.3   6.1   9.4  12.1  13.7  13.6  12.2   9.8   7.2   4.8   3.0   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.94
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Qu    Un    Ck    Cr    Pr    Ha    Da    RP    Ya    Cg    Br    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.6   1.1 |  97.9
    Un |   0.0         0.1   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.4   0.6   0.5   3.0   5.3   7.6 |  81.1
    Ck |   0.0   0.0         0.3   0.4   1.2   1.3   2.2   1.8   7.8  11.0  12.8 |  56.0
    Cr |   0.0   0.0   0.3         0.6   1.4   1.4   2.1   2.6   8.8  12.0  13.7 |  51.3
    Pr |   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.5         1.9   2.2   3.1   2.5  10.9  14.5  16.0 |  40.7
    Ha |   0.0   0.1   0.8   1.0   1.3         3.4   5.0   5.7  14.4  14.4  13.0 |  21.6
    Da |   0.0   0.1   0.8   0.9   1.1   4.0         4.8   6.0  14.6  14.5  13.0 |  21.0
    RP |   0.0   0.2   1.0   1.2   1.4   4.2   4.4         6.5  14.6  13.3  11.3 |  15.4
    Ya |   0.0   0.1   1.1   1.2   1.5   4.7   4.4   6.6        14.9  12.9  10.7 |  14.6
    Cg |   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.5   0.6   1.5   1.6   1.9   1.7         1.3   0.8 |   0.4
    Br |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0         0.0 |   0.0
    SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place

  7. #7
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,554

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Quinnipiac is running away with this thing right now. Brown and SLU are also running away with something, but they're probably less happy about it. There's a bit of a skirmish developing at the bye line, as less than a point separates third from fifth right now. A lot of hockey left to play.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^42.85 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. Union
    3. Cornell
    4. Yale
    5. Dartmouth
    6. Clarkson
    7. Princeton
    8. Harvard
    9. RPI
    10. Colgate
    11. Brown
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  576.2 |  85.2  11.0   2.6   0.8   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  1.20 | 34.51
    Un |  283.4 |   7.0  32.4  21.1  14.5  10.1   6.9   4.4   2.4   1.0   0.2   0.0     x |  3.46 | 28.11
    Cr |  142.9 |   2.3  17.5  19.0  17.4  14.7  11.7   8.4   5.5   2.9   0.6   0.0   0.0 |  4.43 | 26.43
    Ya |  175.8 |   2.4  13.8  17.3  17.4  15.7  12.9   9.8   6.6   3.6   0.5   0.0   0.0 |  4.66 | 26.11
    Da |  132.1 |   1.7  12.0  15.8  16.5  15.7  13.8  11.2   8.0   4.6   0.8   0.0   0.0 |  4.92 | 25.57
    Ck |  149.0 |   1.2   7.4  11.5  13.2  14.4  14.9  14.2  12.4   8.4   2.3   0.1   0.0 |  5.63 | 24.42
    Pr |  108.2 |   0.1   2.5   5.4   8.4  11.6  15.0  18.2  19.5  15.0   4.2   0.2   0.0 |  6.65 | 22.66
    Ha |  132.2 |   0.1   2.3   4.9   7.7  11.0  14.6  18.0  19.6  17.3   4.3   0.1   0.0 |  6.76 | 22.58
    RP |   74.9 |   0.0   1.0   2.3   3.9   6.1   9.1  13.4  20.0  30.4  12.9   0.9   0.0 |  7.76 | 20.67
    Cg |   50.1 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.4   5.9  16.1  62.9   9.5   1.4 |  9.69 | 15.82
    Br |   18.8 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   9.0  66.4  23.8 | 11.13 | 10.02
    SL |   13.8 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.3  22.8  74.8 | 11.72 |  7.11
    
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  576.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.4   5.7   8.7  11.9  14.4  15.2  14.4  11.0   7.3   3.3   1.3 | 34.51
    Un |  283.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.2   3.5   5.3   7.4   9.6  11.2  12.2  12.0  10.9   8.7   6.5   4.1   2.4   1.1   0.5   0.1   0.0     x     x | 28.11
    Cr |  142.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.3   5.1   6.9   9.0  10.5  11.6  11.5  10.7   8.9   7.0   4.8   3.1   1.8   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 26.43
    Ya |  175.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.2   3.7   5.5   7.7   9.6  11.3  11.8  11.7  10.3   8.5   6.1   4.2   2.5   1.4   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 26.11
    Da |  132.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   2.9   4.7   6.7   9.0  10.6  11.9  11.8  11.1   9.2   7.2   5.0   3.3   1.8   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 25.57
    Ck |  149.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.4   2.3   3.6   5.2   7.0   8.7  10.0  10.9  10.8  10.1   8.6   6.9   5.1   3.4   2.1   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 24.42
    Pr |  108.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.6   4.3   6.6   8.7  11.0  12.0  12.5  11.3   9.8   7.3   5.2   3.1   1.8   0.8   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 22.66
    Ha |  132.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   2.9   4.7   6.7   9.0  10.6  11.9  11.9  11.1   9.3   7.3   4.9   3.2   1.8   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 22.58
    RP |   74.9 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.0   4.8   6.7   8.8  10.4  11.4  11.3  10.7   9.0   7.2   5.2   3.5   2.2   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 20.67
    Cg |   50.1 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.2   2.5   4.2   6.6   8.8  10.9  11.9  12.2  11.1   9.5   7.3   5.2   3.4   2.1   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.82
    Br |   18.8 |     x     x     x   0.7   2.1   5.3   8.8  12.7  14.7  15.0  13.2  10.4   7.3   4.6   2.6   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.02
    SL |   13.8 |   0.7   2.2   5.2   8.8  12.3  14.3  14.6  13.1  10.4   7.5   4.9   3.0   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.11
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Qu    Un    Cr    Ya    Da    Ck    Pr    Ha    RP    Cg    Br    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2 |  99.7
    Un |   0.0         0.1   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.5   1.5   4.0   7.4   9.2 |  75.0
    Cr |     x   0.0         0.3   0.3   0.6   1.4   1.5   2.9   7.6  12.0  13.9 |  56.2
    Ya |     x   0.1   0.2         0.3   0.9   1.3   1.6   3.6   8.9  13.2  14.9 |  51.0
    Da |     x   0.1   0.3   0.4         0.8   1.6   2.2   4.1  10.0  13.9  15.2 |  45.9
    Ck |     x   0.1   0.4   0.4   0.6         2.4   2.7   7.3  12.9  14.7  14.5 |  33.3
    Pr |   0.0   0.2   0.6   0.7   1.1   2.0         4.6  11.4  16.6  14.6  12.5 |  16.3
    Ha |   0.0   0.2   0.6   0.9   1.0   2.2   4.6        10.8  16.7  14.1  12.0 |  15.1
    RP |   0.0   0.4   0.9   1.1   1.6   3.0   5.6   7.0        13.2   8.8   6.9 |   7.2
    Cg |     x   0.1   0.4   0.3   0.4   1.1   2.0   1.5   2.5         1.0   0.6 |   0.3
    Br |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0 |   0.0
    SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place

  8. #8
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,554

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    I don't have a whole lot of new analysis for you here. Quinnipiac is still flying high above everyone else, and the bottom four are firmly entrenching themselves in the basement. There's a little bit of intrigue at the bye-home border (or really the whole 4-8 region), but we've certainly seen tighter races. There aren't any more league games until January, but I will provide some updates here as KRACH values shift slightly.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^41.99 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. Yale
    3. Cornell
    4. Union
      —————
    5. Harvard
    6. Dartmouth
    7. Clarkson
    8. Princeton
      —————
    9. Colgate
    10. RPI
    11. Brown
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  605.2 |  85.5  11.9   2.1   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  1.18 | 34.84
    Ya |  223.3 |  10.9  48.1  23.6  10.0   4.4   1.9   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  2.59 | 29.77
    Cr |  133.9 |   2.5  21.6  27.3  19.1  12.9   8.3   4.9   2.3   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  3.81 | 26.97
    Un |  187.4 |   0.5   6.7  16.7  20.9  18.9  15.4  11.0   6.3   2.6   0.8   0.2   0.0 |  4.95 | 24.61
    Ha |  137.6 |   0.2   4.2  10.6  16.6  18.8  18.3  15.2   9.9   4.3   1.5   0.4   0.1 |  5.54 | 23.74
    Da |   77.8 |   0.3   4.3  10.1  15.0  17.4  17.7  15.6  11.1   5.5   2.2   0.7   0.1 |  5.70 | 23.42
    Ck |  113.9 |   0.2   2.4   6.9  11.3  14.9  17.3  18.4  15.5   8.4   3.5   1.2   0.1 |  6.27 | 22.26
    Pr |   69.9 |   0.0   0.7   2.4   5.4   9.3  14.0  19.1  22.6  14.9   7.7   3.3   0.6 |  7.30 | 20.51
    Cg |   52.2 |   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.8   1.8   3.7   7.4  14.1  23.6  23.7  18.1   6.6 |  9.27 | 16.71
    RP |   43.8 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.1   2.5   5.3  11.2  22.5  27.0  23.6   6.1 |  9.56 | 16.08
    Br |   34.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   2.2   6.1  15.2  27.1  35.5  12.9 | 10.23 | 14.68
    SL |   21.8 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   2.3   6.3  17.1  73.5 | 11.60 | 10.42
    
       |  KRACH |     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  605.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.4   2.7   4.7   7.6  10.9  14.0  15.5  15.3  12.4   8.7   4.1   1.6 | 34.84
    Ya |  223.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.1   3.7   5.7   8.4  10.7  12.9  13.2  12.9  10.5   8.1   5.0   3.0   1.2   0.5   0.1   0.0     x | 29.77
    Cr |  133.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.1   5.8   7.9   9.6  11.1  11.5  11.3   9.9   8.2   6.0   4.2   2.5   1.4   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 26.97
    Un |  187.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.7   4.3   6.5   8.6  10.8  11.9  12.6  11.4  10.0   7.4   5.2   3.0   1.7   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 24.61
    Ha |  137.6 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.7   4.3   6.3   8.3  10.3  11.5  12.1  11.2   9.9   7.6   5.6   3.5   2.0   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 23.74
    Da |   77.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   2.0   3.3   5.1   7.1   9.3  10.8  11.7  11.6  10.6   8.7   6.8   4.7   3.1   1.8   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 23.42
    Ck |  113.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.4   3.7   5.5   7.4   9.2  10.5  11.3  10.9  10.1   8.4   6.6   4.6   3.1   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 22.26
    Pr |   69.9 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.1   4.8   7.1   9.0  11.1  11.8  12.0  10.8   9.2   6.8   4.9   3.0   1.8   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 20.51
    Cg |   52.2 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.7   2.9   4.7   6.6   8.8  10.4  11.5  11.4  10.7   9.1   7.2   5.2   3.5   2.2   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.71
    RP |   43.8 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.0   3.6   6.0   8.2  10.6  11.9  12.5  11.6  10.1   7.9   5.8   3.8   2.3   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.08
    Br |   34.1 |     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.6   2.0   3.7   6.8   9.5  12.5  13.5  13.6  11.9   9.5   6.7   4.4   2.6   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.68
    SL |   21.8 |   0.3   0.9   2.6   4.8   7.8  10.5  12.7  13.2  12.7  10.8   8.6   6.1   4.0   2.4   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.42
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Qu    Ya    Cr    Un    Ha    Da    Ck    Pr    Cg    RP    Br    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1 |  99.9
    Ya |     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.9   1.0   1.5   3.7 |  92.6
    Cr |     x   0.0         0.1   0.2   0.2   0.4   1.1   4.2   4.6   6.4  11.2 |  70.5
    Un |     x   0.0   0.1         0.4   0.5   1.1   2.2   8.6   9.6  11.9  17.3 |  44.8
    Ha |     x   0.0   0.1   0.3         0.7   1.3   3.2  11.4  12.4  14.6  18.2 |  31.6
    Da |     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8         1.5   3.3  11.4  12.7  14.4  17.3 |  29.8
    Ck |     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.1         4.3  13.6  14.5  15.9  15.3 |  20.7
    Pr |     x   0.0   0.2   0.8   1.2   1.8   2.8        14.8  16.1  16.3  11.2 |   8.5
    Cg |     x   0.0   0.2   0.8   1.1   1.6   3.0   5.9         6.1   5.7   2.6 |   1.1
    RP |     x   0.0   0.2   0.7   1.3   1.6   2.1   3.8   4.9         3.8   1.8 |   0.6
    Br |     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.4   0.7   0.9   2.2   2.1   2.1         0.5 |   0.1
    SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.1   0.1       |   0.0
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
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  9. #9
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    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Nowhere near a full slate last weekend, but we do actually see a decent number of position changes. Colgate pulled themselves out of the bottom four with a somewhat shocking four-point weekend, while Quinnipiac looks mortal after going 0-1-1. The bye line is still looking interesting, as positions 4-6 are separated by just over a point.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^39.60 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. Cornell
    3. Yale
    4. Harvard
    5. Clarkson
    6. Union
    7. Dartmouth
    8. Colgate
    9. Princeton
    10. Brown
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  417.7 |  58.6  23.6  10.6   4.5   1.8   0.7   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.70 | 31.19
    Cr |  178.8 |  18.0  31.2  21.3  13.2   8.0   4.5   2.3   1.0   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  2.92 | 28.75
    Ya |  171.6 |  14.9  22.0  25.1  17.0  10.3   5.8   2.9   1.3   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  3.25 | 27.97
    Ha |  172.5 |   2.2   6.8  12.9  17.9  18.5  16.4  12.2   7.5   3.9   1.4   0.3   0.0 |  5.14 | 24.68
    Ck |  185.8 |   3.6   7.5  12.0  16.1  17.0  15.4  12.2   8.5   5.1   2.1   0.5   0.0 |  5.22 | 24.43
    Un |  187.1 |   1.7   5.0   9.5  14.6  17.3  17.0  14.2  10.4   6.6   2.9   0.7   0.0 |  5.66 | 23.65
    Da |   75.6 |   0.8   2.6   5.4   9.2  12.9  16.0  17.5  15.6  11.6   6.3   2.2   0.1 |  6.59 | 22.32
    Cg |   83.4 |   0.2   1.0   2.6   5.5   9.4  14.0  18.7  20.9  15.4   8.5   3.4   0.3 |  7.26 | 21.16
    Pr |   84.3 |   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.4   3.2   6.3  11.1  17.9  26.0  22.3   9.9   1.1 |  8.63 | 18.69
    Br |   69.9 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.4   3.2   6.7  12.5  20.9  32.4  19.8   2.4 |  9.35 | 17.27
    RP |   44.3 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.8   4.2   9.2  21.8  53.3   8.6 | 10.43 | 14.59
    SL |   19.7 |     x   0.0   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.1   9.7  87.5 | 11.84 |  9.30
    
       |  KRACH |     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  417.7 |                                                                 x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.3   4.2   6.7   9.9  12.6  14.9  14.6  13.4   9.4   6.3   2.5   1.1             | 31.19
    Cr |  178.8 |                                                     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.6   4.1   6.2   8.3  10.5  11.7  12.5  11.6  10.2   7.7   5.6   3.3   1.9   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0 | 28.75
    Ya |  171.6 |                                                                 x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.1   3.7   5.6   8.1  10.1  12.1  12.4  12.3  10.4   8.4   5.6   3.7   1.9   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 | 27.97
    Ha |  172.5 |                                   x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.4   6.3   8.7  10.4  12.0  12.1  11.7   9.6   7.7   5.1   3.3   1.8   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0                   | 24.68
    Ck |  185.8 |                       x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.2   3.5   5.2   6.9   8.7  10.1  11.1  11.0  10.4   8.8   7.1   5.0   3.4   2.0   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0       | 24.43
    Un |  187.1 |                             x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   2.8   4.5   6.4   8.7  10.3  11.8  11.8  11.4   9.5   7.6   5.2   3.4   1.8   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0                         | 23.65
    Da |   75.6 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.5   5.3   7.5   9.4  11.2  11.7  11.7  10.2   8.6   6.3   4.6   2.8   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 22.32
    Cg |   83.4 |                                 0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.7   5.5   7.9   9.8  11.6  12.0  11.8  10.1   8.4   6.1   4.1   2.5   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                   | 21.16
    Pr |   84.3 |                           0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.4   4.0   6.6   8.8  11.5  12.4  13.2  11.6  10.0   7.1   5.0   2.8   1.6   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                 | 18.69
    Br |   69.9 |                           0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.7   3.0   5.3   7.6  10.4  11.9  13.0  12.1  10.9   8.4   6.2   3.9   2.4   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                     | 17.27
    RP |   44.3 |                     0.1   0.3   1.1   2.2   4.5   6.9  10.0  11.8  13.3  12.7  11.4   9.0   6.7   4.4   2.7   1.5   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                                           | 14.59
    SL |   19.7 |   0.7   2.1   4.9   8.1  11.5  13.7  14.2  13.1  10.8   8.1   5.5   3.4   2.0   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                         |  9.30
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Qu    Cr    Ya    Ha    Ck    Un    Da    Cg    Pr    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.6   1.6 |  97.3
    Cr |   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.4   1.6   2.2   3.6   7.5 |  83.8
    Ya |     x   0.0         0.1   0.2   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.6   2.8   4.8   9.7 |  79.0
    Ha |   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.6   0.7   1.7   3.1   7.1   9.7  13.6  18.1 |  39.9
    Ck |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4         0.9   1.9   3.0   7.2   9.8  13.1  16.6 |  39.2
    Un |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   1.0         2.4   3.6   8.5  11.2  14.4  17.2 |  30.9
    Da |   0.0   0.1   0.1   1.0   1.2   1.6         5.2  11.0  13.1  15.3  13.3 |  17.9
    Cg |   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.9   1.4   1.8   4.1        14.7  15.0  14.8  10.2 |   9.4
    Pr |   0.0   0.1   0.2   1.4   2.0   2.8   5.0   5.1        10.2   8.2   3.8 |   2.0
    Br |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.8   1.0   1.6   3.2   4.9   6.0         4.5   1.7 |   0.6
    RP |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.3   0.5   1.1   1.6   1.5   1.4         0.3 |   0.1
    SL |   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |   0.0
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    Last edited by lugnut92; 01-07-2019 at 12:10 PM.
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  10. #10
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    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Just wondering... on the charts showing at least the points (might be a little difficult to do with ranks and matchups, seeing why you're doing predictions to begin with), is it possible to distinguish between what is impossible and what didn't happen in the simulations?
    It was an honor to present your colors, RPI. Let's Go 'TUTE!
    May 14th, 2011, 11:00 PM ET: 2147483647

    "Better to be infamous than never famous at all." -Roger Stone

    Quote Originally Posted by French Rage View Post
    Ahh crap I agree exactly with what FlagDude said.
    Quote Originally Posted by Handyman View Post
    And yet, even if Flaggy is complete tinfoil hat, every day it looks closer and closer to the truth.
    Quote Originally Posted by burd View Post
    So flaggy: you win.

  11. #11
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    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Quote Originally Posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
    Just wondering... on the charts showing at least the points (might be a little difficult to do with ranks and matchups, seeing why you're doing predictions to begin with), is it possible to distinguish between what is impossible and what didn't happen in the simulations?
    I don't think so, at least not in an automated fashion the way my program is currently set up. I could certainly go play with the [hostileandabusive]sports tool and figure it out for each team, but that's maybe more work than I'm willing to do. I personally enjoyed the posts you used to do to that end, but I understand that it is a bit of effort.
    RPI Pep Band
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    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

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  12. #12
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    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Quote Originally Posted by lugnut92 View Post
    I don't think so, at least not in an automated fashion the way my program is currently set up. I could certainly go play with the [hostileandabusive]sports tool and figure it out for each team, but that's maybe more work than I'm willing to do. I personally enjoyed the posts you used to do to that end, but I understand that it is a bit of effort.
    Oh man I'm dumb (as I said elsewhere, reading is hard), points would be easy. I can start doing that going forward, and today's post has been edited.
    Last edited by lugnut92; 01-07-2019 at 12:10 PM.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
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    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Quote Originally Posted by lugnut92 View Post
    Oh man I'm dumb (as I said elsewhere, reading is hard), points would be easy. I can start doing that going forward, and today's post has been edited.
    It's all good; I was trying to figure out the best way to describe it to you while satisfying the "tl;dr" requirement. Theoretically you COULD do a min/max sort of scenario, but not only would it take way too long to run (I think you mentioned anywhere from 30 minutes to a couple hours for what you have now), but at this particular point in the season, it wouldn't be worth much. If I can get up the gumption to do something around my other projects, perhaps I'll help out when the time comes.
    It was an honor to present your colors, RPI. Let's Go 'TUTE!
    May 14th, 2011, 11:00 PM ET: 2147483647

    "Better to be infamous than never famous at all." -Roger Stone

    Quote Originally Posted by French Rage View Post
    Ahh crap I agree exactly with what FlagDude said.
    Quote Originally Posted by Handyman View Post
    And yet, even if Flaggy is complete tinfoil hat, every day it looks closer and closer to the truth.
    Quote Originally Posted by burd View Post
    So flaggy: you win.

  14. #14
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    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Quote Originally Posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
    It's all good; I was trying to figure out the best way to describe it to you while satisfying the "tl;dr" requirement. Theoretically you COULD do a min/max sort of scenario, but not only would it take way too long to run (I think you mentioned anywhere from 30 minutes to a couple hours for what you have now), but at this particular point in the season, it wouldn't be worth much. If I can get up the gumption to do something around my other projects, perhaps I'll help out when the time comes.
    What I was thinking for the upper/lower bounds for rankings is to assume all wins or all losses and then randomly assign results to the other games a number of times for each team. The issue is that it would add a significant amount of run time and that my sim is still unequipped to handle large ties.
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    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    Quote Originally Posted by lugnut92 View Post
    What I was thinking for the upper/lower bounds for rankings is to assume all wins or all losses and then randomly assign results to the other games a number of times for each team. The issue is that it would add a significant amount of run time and that my sim is still unequipped to handle large ties.
    That's exactly what I was thinking, hence why I didn't ask for it, because it'd be at least 12 times as long. One thing's for sure though: I enjoy actually doing the posts you referenced manually, and understanding what needs to happen. I won't try it until after Freakout, though, because at this point it's still WAY too up in the air as to where things could go.
    It was an honor to present your colors, RPI. Let's Go 'TUTE!
    May 14th, 2011, 11:00 PM ET: 2147483647

    "Better to be infamous than never famous at all." -Roger Stone

    Quote Originally Posted by French Rage View Post
    Ahh crap I agree exactly with what FlagDude said.
    Quote Originally Posted by Handyman View Post
    And yet, even if Flaggy is complete tinfoil hat, every day it looks closer and closer to the truth.
    Quote Originally Posted by burd View Post
    So flaggy: you win.

  16. #16
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    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    A little shake-up at the top has Cornell just ahead of Quinnipiac, though they're basically tied. Further, while the bye line is seeing a little separation, the home-road line is separated by just about half a point, as Colgate and Princeton fight for the right to host.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^35.78 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Cornell
    2. Quinnipiac
    3. Yale
    4. Clarkson
    5. Harvard
    6. Dartmouth
    7. Union
    8. Colgate
    9. Princeton
    10. Brown
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  240.9 |  40.4  28.2  15.6   8.5   4.3   2.0   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  2.19 | 30.45
    Qu |  352.2 |  35.8  32.0  17.6   9.0   3.8   1.3   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  2.19 | 29.93
    Ya |  140.7 |  10.1  15.5  22.1  20.3  14.8   9.2   4.8   2.1   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  3.79 | 27.16
    Ck |  210.0 |  10.4  14.0  19.3  19.6  15.6  10.5   6.0   2.9   1.3   0.3   0.0   0.0 |  3.96 | 26.72
    Ha |  164.6 |   1.5   4.9  11.6  17.2  20.5  19.1  13.7   7.1   3.3   1.0   0.2   0.0 |  5.26 | 24.63
    Da |   82.3 |   1.2   3.3   8.0  12.7  17.3  19.6  17.2  11.1   6.2   2.6   0.7   0.0 |  5.86 | 23.58
    Un |  164.6 |   0.6   1.8   4.5   8.8  14.6  18.9  19.7  14.8  10.2   4.8   1.4   0.0 |  6.50 | 22.43
    Cg |   63.3 |   0.1   0.3   0.9   2.2   4.9   9.3  15.8  22.3  21.5  14.6   7.9   0.4 |  8.12 | 19.73
    Pr |   83.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.2   3.0   6.8  13.3  22.0  26.4  19.1   7.6   0.3 |  8.46 | 19.13
    Br |   64.7 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.1   2.8   6.4  12.5  19.7  32.4  22.9   1.6 |  9.42 | 17.11
    RP |   44.4 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.9   4.8  10.5  24.3  55.2   2.5 | 10.31 | 14.94
    SL |   17.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   4.0  95.1 | 11.94 |  8.20
    
       |  KRACH |     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  240.9 |                                                     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.7   4.4   6.6   8.9  11.2  12.5  13.0  11.8  10.0   7.1   4.7   2.4   1.2   0.4   0.1 | 30.45
    Qu |  352.2 |                                                                             x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.3   4.3   7.6  10.8  14.7  15.6  16.2  12.0   9.1   3.8   1.8                         | 29.93
    Ya |  140.7 |                                                               0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.3   5.4   7.5  10.0  11.5  12.7  11.9  10.9   8.4   6.3   3.9   2.4   1.1   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0 | 27.16
    Ck |  210.0 |                                               x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.6   2.7   4.4   6.3   8.5  10.2  11.7  11.9  11.5   9.7   7.8   5.4   3.5   1.9   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0       | 26.72
    Ha |  164.6 |                                             0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.2   4.1   6.2   9.0  11.1  13.1  12.9  12.5   9.9   7.6   4.6   2.8   1.2   0.5   0.1   0.0                               | 24.63
    Da |   82.3 |                                                   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.4   2.6   4.6   6.7   9.4  11.1  12.7  12.3  11.6   9.2   7.1   4.7   3.0   1.5   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0             | 23.58
    Un |  164.6 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.5   2.9   4.6   7.1   9.1  11.6  12.3  12.8  11.1   9.6   6.7   4.7   2.5   1.4   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0                                     | 22.43
    Cg |   63.3 |                                 0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.6   4.2   6.7   8.8  11.1  12.1  12.5  11.2   9.5   7.2   5.1   3.2   1.9   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                   | 19.73
    Pr |   83.5 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.3   2.5   5.1   7.4  11.3  12.7  14.8  13.2  11.9   8.1   5.7   3.0   1.6   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0                                                             | 19.13
    Br |   64.7 |                           0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.9   3.3   5.7   8.0  10.8  12.0  13.0  12.0  10.5   8.0   5.8   3.6   2.2   1.1   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                     | 17.11
    RP |   44.4 |                                 0.4   1.1   3.3   5.4   9.4  11.5  14.2  13.7  13.0  10.1   7.6   4.8   2.9   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                                       | 14.94
    SL |   17.9 |   1.6   4.1   8.6  12.3  15.2  15.4  13.9  10.9   7.7   4.8   2.8   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                 |  8.20
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cr    Qu    Ya    Ck    Ha    Da    Un    Cg    Pr    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.9   1.4   4.1 |  92.6
    Qu |   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.4   0.9   3.7 |  94.5
    Ya |   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   2.2   1.9   4.5   6.9  14.5 |  67.9
    Ck |   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.1   0.3   0.8   2.4   2.6   5.4   8.1  15.3 |  63.4
    Ha |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1         0.7   1.2   5.6   6.4  10.8  15.1  20.4 |  35.2
    Da |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.5         1.8   7.0   8.8  12.6  16.8  17.4 |  25.2
    Un |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.5         9.2  10.0  14.7  16.8  14.7 |  15.7
    Cg |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   0.8   2.2   3.7        14.9  13.3  11.6   5.1 |   3.4
    Pr |   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.5   1.4   2.3   5.0   9.3        12.5  10.4   3.3 |   1.5
    Br |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.6   2.4   6.0   6.3         4.5   1.2 |   0.5
    RP |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.2   0.7   0.8   2.1   1.8   1.5         0.2 |   0.0
    SL |     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |   0.0
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place

  17. #17
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,554

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    We stand here just one game shy of the halfway point of the season and Cornell might be pulling away a little bit. Meanwhile SLU has all but locked up the first overall draft pick. There's relatively little action at the breakpoints, which are both separated by about one win at present. The middle is a jumble as Union underperforms (ahahahahahahaha) and Dartmouth/Yale are somewhat above their station.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^31.97 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Cornell
    2. Quinnipiac
    3. Clarkson
    4. Yale
      —————
    5. Harvard
    6. Dartmouth
    7. Union
    8. Princeton
      —————
    9. Colgate
    10. Brown
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  308.7 |  62.1  24.5   9.3   3.0   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.57 | 32.66
    Qu |  393.0 |  22.6  40.7  21.8   9.9   3.6   1.1   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.35 | 30.17
    Ck |  236.4 |  12.1  20.8  28.8  18.3  10.8   5.8   2.4   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0     x |  3.27 | 28.29
    Ya |  133.5 |   2.4   8.5  17.9  25.5  20.5  14.0   7.3   2.9   0.8   0.2   0.0     x |  4.46 | 26.21
    Ha |  170.1 |   0.2   2.2   9.7  17.3  23.0  22.7  16.2   6.5   1.8   0.4   0.1   0.0 |  5.40 | 24.42
    Da |   87.2 |   0.3   2.2   8.4  15.5  21.1  22.8  17.7   7.9   2.9   0.9   0.2   0.0 |  5.59 | 24.01
    Un |  171.3 |   0.2   1.1   3.7   8.9  15.2  20.0  22.8  15.2   8.2   3.6   1.1   0.0 |  6.48 | 22.42
    Pr |   87.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.3   3.4   8.0  16.9  27.4  22.4  14.0   6.2   0.1 |  8.19 | 19.33
    Cg |   55.8 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.8   2.6   8.1  18.9  26.3  23.7  18.7   0.6 |  9.15 | 17.53
    Br |   59.6 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.8   5.4  12.8  21.5  30.5  27.1   0.2 |  9.53 | 16.58
    RP |   50.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.9   2.9   7.6  15.9  26.6  45.3   0.6 | 10.02 | 15.39
    SL |   15.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.3  98.6 | 11.98 |  6.98
    
       |  KRACH |     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  308.7 |                                                                             x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.8   3.3   5.6   8.4  11.6  13.7  15.0  13.5  11.5   7.3   4.5   1.6   0.7 | 32.66
    Qu |  393.0 |                                                                             x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.9   3.6   6.6   9.9  14.1  15.8  16.9  13.2  10.2   4.4   2.2                         | 30.17
    Ck |  236.4 |                                                                     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.7   1.6   2.8   4.9   7.0   9.8  11.5  13.2  12.6  11.7   9.0   6.7   3.9   2.3   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0       | 28.29
    Ya |  133.5 |                                                                           0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.4   3.0   4.8   7.8   9.9  12.7  13.0  13.3  11.0   9.0   5.9   3.9   1.9   1.0   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0             | 26.21
    Ha |  170.1 |                                                           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.9   4.0   6.3  10.0  12.1  14.9  13.9  13.4   9.3   6.9   3.3   1.8   0.5   0.2                                           | 24.42
    Da |   87.2 |                                                               0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.4   3.2   5.2   8.4  10.7  13.5  13.5  13.3  10.6   8.3   5.2   3.2   1.5   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 24.01
    Un |  171.3 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.5   2.9   4.5   7.0   9.2  11.7  12.5  12.9  11.2   9.6   6.7   4.6   2.5   1.3   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0                                     | 22.42
    Pr |   87.5 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.1   4.5   6.7  10.6  12.4  15.0  13.5  12.6   8.8   6.3   3.3   1.8   0.6   0.3   0.0   0.0                                                             | 19.33
    Cg |   55.8 |                                 0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   2.2   3.9   7.0   9.6  12.7  13.5  13.8  11.7   9.5   6.4   4.2   2.3   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                           | 17.53
    Br |   59.6 |                                       0.2   0.6   2.1   3.7   7.1   9.5  12.9  13.5  14.0  11.8   9.5   6.4   4.2   2.3   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                 | 16.58
    RP |   50.7 |                                 0.3   0.7   2.4   4.2   7.8  10.2  13.4  13.7  13.8  11.3   8.9   6.0   3.8   2.0   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                       | 15.39
    SL |   15.4 |   4.0   8.5  14.7  17.3  17.5  14.4  10.4   6.5   3.6   1.8   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                                         |  6.98
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cr    Qu    Ck    Ya    Ha    Da    Un    Pr    Cg    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.8 |  98.9
    Qu |     x         0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.3   0.6   3.6 |  95.0
    Ck |     x   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.7   1.8   2.7   3.7  10.7 |  80.0
    Ya |     x     x   0.0         0.1   0.1   0.6   2.0   5.6   6.9   9.1  20.4 |  54.2
    Ha |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1         0.2   0.8   5.0  10.7  12.7  16.0  23.0 |  29.4
    Da |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2         0.9   5.9  11.4  13.1  16.7  21.2 |  26.5
    Un |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5         8.0  15.2  16.3  17.5  15.2 |  13.9
    Pr |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.0   4.0        14.9  16.6  14.5   3.5 |   1.6
    Cg |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.6   3.1  11.5         8.0   5.7   0.8 |   0.3
    Br |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   2.0   6.3   6.1         4.4   0.6 |   0.2
    RP |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   3.2   3.3   2.6         0.3 |   0.1
    SL |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    Last edited by lugnut92; 01-21-2019 at 09:58 AM.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place

  18. #18
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,554

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    We're past the halfway point! Right now, Cornell and Quinnipiac are in a dogfight for first overall, Yale has dropped out of the bye, and it's a ****ing mess between 8th and 10th, with none of Brown, Colgate, or Princeton favored to actually take the final home spot. Meanwhile, SLU is almost locked in last.

    Fun fact, we can still have the fabled 12-way tie for first. Pray for Team Chaos!

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^27.20 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Cornell
    2. Quinnipiac
    3. Clarkson
    4. Harvard
      —————
    5. Yale
    6. Dartmouth
    7. Union
    8. Brown
      —————
    9. Colgate
    10. Princeton
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  266.0 |  48.4  32.4  12.1   4.7   1.8   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.81 | 31.25
    Qu |  398.1 |  37.0  34.9  15.7   7.5   3.4   1.1   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.10 | 30.28
    Ck |  215.6 |  10.4  15.6  23.6  22.0  15.1   8.0   3.3   1.4   0.5   0.1   0.0     x |  3.63 | 27.33
    Ha |  200.5 |   1.6   8.3  24.6  24.6  19.8  12.8   5.7   2.0   0.5   0.1   0.0     x |  4.28 | 26.44
    Ya |  125.3 |   2.1   6.1  13.5  20.0  23.6  18.7   9.4   4.3   1.7   0.5   0.0     x |  4.86 | 25.49
    Da |   89.8 |   0.4   2.2   8.0  14.0  20.0  23.7  16.4   9.5   4.3   1.4   0.1     x |  5.72 | 24.04
    Un |  151.3 |   0.1   0.4   1.7   4.1   8.0  14.4  20.2  19.8  16.8  13.0   1.4   0.0 |  7.46 | 21.23
    Br |   77.4 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.9   2.9   7.7  15.6  21.2  24.1  25.6   1.8   0.0 |  8.36 | 19.66
    Cg |   66.1 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   2.4   6.2  15.1  21.3  26.0  22.3   5.6   0.0 |  8.48 | 19.55
    Pr |   88.9 |   0.0   0.0   0.4   1.2   3.1   6.9  13.6  19.6  23.4  27.2   4.4   0.0 |  8.48 | 19.43
    RP |   42.5 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   2.7   9.7  85.9   0.7 | 10.82 | 13.18
    SL |   14.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.8  99.2 | 11.99 |  6.11
    
       |  KRACH |     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  266.0 |                                                                                         x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.9   3.9   6.5  10.3  12.9  15.8  14.8  13.9   9.0   6.2   2.3   1.0 | 31.25
    Qu |  398.1 |                                                                             x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.7   3.3   6.2   9.5  13.6  15.7  17.1  13.7  10.8   4.8   2.4             | 30.28
    Ck |  215.6 |                                                                                 0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.5   1.1   2.5   4.2   7.2   9.6  13.0  13.5  14.3  11.6   9.8   6.0   3.9   1.7   0.8   0.2   0.1       | 27.33
    Ha |  200.5 |                                                                                 0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.4   3.4   5.6  10.0  12.4  16.7  14.9  15.3   9.2   6.9   2.2   1.2                               | 26.44
    Ya |  125.3 |                                                                                       0.1   0.2   0.8   1.7   4.1   6.1  10.4  12.0  15.2  13.7  13.3   9.1   6.8   3.5   2.0   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0             | 25.49
    Da |   89.8 |                                                                           0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.7   4.5   8.4  10.7  14.7  14.1  14.7  10.8   8.6   4.7   2.9   1.1   0.5   0.1   0.0                         | 24.04
    Un |  151.3 |                                                   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.4   2.5   5.0   7.1  10.7  12.1  14.2  12.9  12.0   8.5   6.3   3.4   1.9   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0                                     | 21.23
    Br |   77.4 |                                                               0.5   1.0   3.6   5.6  10.4  12.3  15.6  14.1  13.4   9.4   6.9   3.7   2.1   0.8   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                                     | 19.66
    Cg |   66.1 |                                             0.0   0.0   0.3   0.7   1.9   3.5   6.8   9.3  13.1  13.8  14.9  12.0  10.1   6.3   4.1   1.9   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0                                           | 19.55
    Pr |   88.9 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.0   4.2   6.5  10.4  12.2  14.8  13.6  12.8   9.0   6.6   3.6   2.0   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0                                                 | 19.43
    RP |   42.5 |                                 1.7   3.4   8.7  11.3  16.1  15.5  15.2  11.1   8.2   4.6   2.6   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                                   | 13.18
    SL |   14.5 |   7.8  13.7  20.0  19.4  16.3  10.9   6.4   3.2   1.4   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x                                                                                     |  6.11
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cr    Qu    Ck    Ha    Ya    Da    Un    Br    Cg    Pr    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |           x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.5   1.7 |  97.6
    Qu |     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   1.0   3.3 |  95.1
    Ck |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.9   1.7   1.3   1.2   7.4  15.1 |  71.7
    Ha |   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.7   2.2   3.0   2.9  11.7  19.7 |  59.1
    Ya |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.2   2.5   4.1   4.5   3.7  17.3  23.6 |  41.7
    Da |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2         2.8   6.6   8.9   8.4  22.6  20.0 |  24.6
    Un |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.5   1.3        10.9  14.2  12.4  14.8   8.0 |   6.3
    Br |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   1.5   8.1        12.2  12.9   9.0   2.9 |   1.2
    Cg |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.5   1.1   8.3  12.5        13.1   7.0   2.4 |   1.1
    Pr |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.3   7.7  13.2   9.2         7.8   3.1 |   1.6
    RP |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.3   0.2         0.0 |   0.0
    SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    Last edited by lugnut92; 01-27-2019 at 10:53 PM.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place

  19. #19
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,554

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    We enter the final month of the season with a super tight race at the top, a close fight for the final bye, and a meaningless dogfight for 9th. In a fun twist of the Monte Carlo, Quinnipiac falls down to 9th place exactly once, putting a weird blemish on the playoff table below.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^22.42 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. Cornell
    3. Clarkson
    4. Harvard
    5. Yale
    6. Dartmouth
    7. Union
    8. Brown
    9. Colgate
    10. Princeton
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  439.4 |  50.5  31.7  11.1   4.6   1.7   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  1.76 | 31.34
    Cr |  268.8 |  38.5  39.2  14.0   5.9   2.0   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  1.95 | 31.30
    Ck |  217.3 |   5.9  12.5  23.9  27.5  21.8   7.0   1.2   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.74 | 27.41
    Ha |  214.9 |   1.6   8.0  29.1  27.2  22.8   8.8   2.2   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.98 | 27.20
    Ya |  138.2 |   3.5   8.2  18.9  25.9  28.0  12.6   2.5   0.4   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  4.17 | 26.82
    Da |   81.8 |   0.0   0.3   2.3   6.4  15.0  36.1  24.0  11.0   3.5   1.0   0.2   0.0 |  6.25 | 22.85
    Un |  144.2 |   0.0   0.1   0.6   2.3   7.2  23.5  32.3  20.1   8.8   3.9   1.3   0.0 |  7.07 | 21.14
    Br |   71.9 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.0   8.4  22.0  29.5  20.1  13.3   5.6   0.0 |  8.21 | 18.93
    Cg |   54.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.1   6.7  17.3  27.0  26.4  20.3   0.9 |  9.35 | 16.89
    Pr |   68.5 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.2   5.9  12.9  19.9  27.5  31.1   1.2 |  9.64 | 16.20
    RP |   54.4 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.7   3.1   8.4  20.6  27.6  39.4   0.2 |  9.90 | 15.79
    SL |   19.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.1  97.6 | 11.97 |  8.12
    
       |  KRACH |     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |  439.4 |                                                                                         x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.1   2.7   5.1   9.5  13.3  18.4  17.3  17.3   8.9   5.8       | 31.34
    Cr |  268.8 |                                                                                             0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.4   3.0   6.3   9.4  14.6  15.8  18.3  13.0  10.9   4.2   2.4 | 31.30
    Ck |  217.3 |                                                                                 0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.6   3.1   6.6   9.2  14.3  14.6  16.9  12.4  10.7   5.2   3.3   0.8   0.4             | 27.41
    Ha |  214.9 |                                                                                 0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.6   3.0   6.9   9.6  15.8  15.5  18.6  12.0  10.5   3.6   2.2                         | 27.20
    Ya |  138.2 |                                                                                       0.1   0.2   1.1   2.2   5.5   7.8  13.3  14.0  17.0  13.2  11.9   6.6   4.3   1.6   0.8   0.1   0.0       | 26.82
    Da |   81.8 |                                                               0.1   0.2   1.2   2.2   5.6   7.9  13.1  13.6  16.7  13.1  11.9   6.8   4.7   1.8   0.9   0.2   0.1                               | 22.85
    Un |  144.2 |                                                   0.1   0.2   0.9   1.8   4.6   6.8  11.9  13.1  16.7  13.8  13.1   7.7   5.6   2.2   1.2   0.2   0.1                                           | 21.14
    Br |   71.9 |                                                   0.8   1.5   5.3   7.6  13.7  14.4  17.4  13.6  11.7   6.8   4.3   1.8   0.8   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0                                           | 18.93
    Cg |   54.0 |                                 0.2   0.5   2.4   4.1   9.3  11.5  16.8  15.1  15.6  10.3   7.7   3.6   1.9   0.6   0.3   0.0   0.0                                                             | 16.89
    Pr |   68.5 |                           0.2   0.5   2.1   3.6   8.1  10.3  15.4  14.5  15.8  11.1   9.2   4.7   2.9   1.0   0.5   0.1   0.0                                                                   | 16.20
    RP |   54.4 |                                       2.2   3.6  10.5  12.1  18.7  15.6  15.8   9.7   6.8   3.0   1.5   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0                                                                   | 15.79
    SL |   19.0 |   8.4  12.3  20.5  18.9  17.0  11.0   6.7   3.2   1.4   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                                                           |  8.12
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Qu    Cr    Ck    Ha    Ya    Da    Un    Br    Cg    Pr    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu |           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   1.7 |  98.0
    Cr |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.1   1.9 |  97.7
    Ck |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.7   1.5   2.7   3.7  21.5 |  69.7
    Ha |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   2.9   4.0   4.1  22.4 |  65.9
    Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.3   1.3   3.5   4.0   6.8  27.6 |  56.5
    Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         1.4   6.8  17.7  19.8  24.9  15.5 |   9.1
    Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.8         9.5  21.6  21.5  21.9   7.6 |   3.0
    Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.2   4.3        19.1  17.0  17.9   1.4 |   0.2
    Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6   2.8   9.5         8.1   4.1   0.2 |   0.0
    Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6   2.7   7.9   4.7         4.2   0.2 |   0.0
    RP |   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.5   2.2   2.5   3.6   2.4         0.1 |   0.0
    SL |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place

  20. #20
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,554

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2018-19

    The Harvard pity game on Tuesday notwithstanding, we're all done with non-conference games. Three more weekends, 36 more games, it truly is the most wonderful time of the year. As for the actual projectoins, a couple things. First, what the **** is Brown doing in the top half? Linked to that, Quinnipiac has given up the first spot by losing to BROWN. Union is still massively underperforming. It's almost like giving 4 points to RPI wasn't a good look. Everyone is pretty well locked into their first round tier. Clarkson and Yale are close-ish but not really, and the logjam at 9th is much ado about nothing unless Union or Dartmouth lose a couple games they're not supposed to.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^17.18 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Cornell
    2. Quinnipiac
    3. Harvard
    4. Clarkson
    5. Yale
    6. Brown
    7. Dartmouth
    8. Union
    9. Colgate
    10. Princeton
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  286.3 |  74.5  20.3   4.1   0.9   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.32 | 32.57
    Qu |  380.2 |  20.9  50.7  19.6   6.7   1.7   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.19 | 30.06
    Ha |  200.2 |   1.8  16.1  41.0  25.8  11.4   3.1   0.8   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.42 | 27.88
    Ck |  207.8 |   2.6  10.8  26.0  39.4  15.7   4.1   1.1   0.2   0.0     x     x     x |  3.72 | 26.96
    Ya |  119.1 |   0.3   1.9   7.8  19.3  39.4  19.0   8.5   3.2   0.5   0.1   0.0     x |  5.06 | 24.72
    Br |   93.3 |   0.0   0.1   0.7   3.1  12.5  33.3  27.0  16.3   5.3   1.5   0.2     x |  6.61 | 22.16
    Da |   74.5 |     x   0.0   0.5   3.3  11.8  20.6  25.0  28.5   8.0   2.0   0.3     x |  6.96 | 21.67
    Un |  141.4 |   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.5   6.9  17.5  29.6  27.9  10.8   4.4   1.1     x |  7.30 | 21.10
    Cg |   54.3 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   0.9   3.2   9.1  31.1  31.2  24.3   0.0 |  9.61 | 16.97
    Pr |   71.1 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   0.9   3.1   8.3  22.7  32.9  31.7   0.2 |  9.79 | 16.56
    RP |   57.1 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.7   6.5  21.5  27.8  42.2   0.0 | 10.02 | 16.11
    SL |   17.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2  99.8 | 12.00 |  7.24
    
       |  KRACH |     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  286.3 |                                                                                                                     0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.9   3.8   9.1  12.1  19.9  17.2  19.8   8.7   6.8 | 32.57
    Qu |  380.2 |                                                                                                   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   1.0   2.3   6.1   9.8  17.6  18.0  22.8  12.0  10.1                   | 30.06
    Ha |  200.2 |                                                                                             0.0   0.1   0.5   1.3   4.1   6.5  13.5  14.6  21.0  14.6  14.9   5.3   3.7                         | 27.88
    Ck |  207.8 |                                                                                             0.1   0.3   1.6   3.0   8.2  10.4  18.4  15.8  19.2  10.4   8.8   2.4   1.4                         | 26.96
    Ya |  119.1 |                                                                                       0.6   1.3   5.4   7.3  15.6  14.8  20.3  13.2  12.3   5.1   3.2   0.7   0.3                               | 24.72
    Br |   93.3 |                                                                           1.2   2.2   8.1   9.8  18.5  15.7  18.9  11.0   9.0   3.3   1.8   0.4   0.1                                           | 22.16
    Da |   74.5 |                                                                     0.6   1.2   5.6   7.6  16.2  15.0  20.0  12.9  11.8   4.9   3.2   0.7   0.3                                                 | 21.67
    Un |  141.4 |                                                               0.4   0.8   3.8   5.8  13.4  13.8  20.4  14.4  14.6   6.6   4.6   1.0   0.5                                                       | 21.10
    Cg |   54.3 |                                             1.3   2.4   9.2  10.9  19.7  15.9  18.1  10.1   7.7   2.8   1.5   0.3   0.1                                                                         | 16.97
    Pr |   71.1 |                                       0.7   1.4   6.0   8.1  16.8  15.3  19.9  12.5  11.1   4.5   2.9   0.6   0.3                                                                               | 16.56
    RP |   57.1 |                                             3.6   5.2  14.9  14.8  21.2  14.7  13.5   6.4   3.9   1.2   0.5   0.1   0.0                                                                         | 16.11
    SL |   17.9 |  16.8  18.3  25.5  17.5  12.5   5.7   2.6   0.8   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x                                                                                                                   |  7.24
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    A blank space means the outcome is impossible.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cr    Qu    Ha    Ck    Ya    Br    Da    Un    Cg    Pr    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1 |  99.8
    Qu |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.1   1.7 |  97.8
    Ha |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.2   1.5   1.3  11.4 |  84.5
    Ck |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.4   1.6   2.2  15.7 |  78.9
    Ya |     x     x     x   0.0         0.3   0.2   0.8   8.3   9.5  11.5  39.3 |  29.4
    Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         1.2   3.5  22.6  24.6  24.5  12.6 |   3.9
    Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.9         2.7  23.6  21.8  24.9  11.9 |   3.8
    Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.2   2.7        25.5  23.3  22.2   6.9 |   1.8
    Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.6   1.4   3.0         3.9   2.2   0.2 |   0.0
    Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.6   1.9   3.8   2.3         2.5   0.2 |   0.0`
    RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   2.9   2.3   1.7   1.2         0.0 |   0.0
    SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place

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