Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 35

Thread: 2019-20 pwr

  1. #1

    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    20832/20904/13677/07677/07621
    Posts
    38,972

    2019-20 pwr

    Can be found here:
    https://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairw...ngs/d-iii-men/

    Interesting, but its way to early to get excited. Keep posting discussion here.

  2. #2
    Colorado Cadets Fan
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    Lafayette, CO
    Posts
    9,796

    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    At this point, it is foolish to even pay any attention to this metric. Until there is more connectivity in the competion graph, the teams with insular schedule are getting a huge boost..
    2007-2008 ECAC East/NESCAC Interlock Pick 'em winner
    2007-2008 Last Person Standing Winner,
    2013-2014 Last Person Standing Winner (tie)
    2016-2017 Last Person Standing Winner

  3. #3
    Black Bear since D-2
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    Central New York
    Posts
    4,696

    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    Quote Originally Posted by NUProf View Post
    At this point, it is foolish to even pay any attention to this metric. Until there is more connectivity in the competion graph, the teams with insular schedule are getting a huge boost..
    Yeah, there are too few cross-over games at the D-3 level for either the PWR (or it's twin, the RPI) to mean much...

    Yet, that's far better than the smoky-room BS, and we still have the far superior option of employing the KRACH.

    (If only.)

    Last edited by Fishman'81; 12-25-2019 at 08:28 PM.

  4. #4
    Black Bear since D-2
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    Central New York
    Posts
    4,696

    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    Quote Originally Posted by NUProf View Post
    At this point, it is foolish to even pay any attention to this metric. Until there is more connectivity in the competion graph, the teams with insular schedule are getting a huge boost..
    Well, too be fair, the only teams with insular schedules who are getting a boost are the better teams in weak conferences. The top-to-bottom stronger conferences tend to eat their own young.
    Last edited by Fishman'81; 12-25-2019 at 08:35 PM.

  5. #5
    Colorado Cadets Fan
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    Lafayette, CO
    Posts
    9,796

    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    Quote Originally Posted by Fishman'81 View Post
    Well, too be fair, the only teams with insular schedules who are getting a boost are the better teams in weak conferences. The top-to-bottom stronger conferences tend to eat their own young.
    Explain to me why you think Ken's metric is so superior. Give me a reason for your faith in this measurement. The lack of schedule connectivity creates problem with that metric as well. When the only path connecting two teams has a bridge, comparisons will not be reliable. Ken's metric is no better or worse than the RPI, only different with similar flaws for similar reasons.
    2007-2008 ECAC East/NESCAC Interlock Pick 'em winner
    2007-2008 Last Person Standing Winner,
    2013-2014 Last Person Standing Winner (tie)
    2016-2017 Last Person Standing Winner

  6. #6
    Black Bear since D-2
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    Central New York
    Posts
    4,696

    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    Quote Originally Posted by NUProf View Post
    Explain to me why you think Ken's metric is so superior. Give me a reason for your faith in this measurement. The lack of schedule connectivity creates problem with that metric as well. When the only path connecting two teams has a bridge, comparisons will not be reliable. Ken's metric is no better or worse than the RPI, only different with similar flaws for similar reasons.
    The KRACH is simply a better predictor of results than the PWR/RPI.

  7. #7
    Colorado Cadets Fan
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    Lafayette, CO
    Posts
    9,796

    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    Quote Originally Posted by Fishman'81 View Post
    The KRACH is simply a better predictor of results than the PWR/RPI.
    On what basis do you make that claim? That's my question to you. It has flaws that are similar to the RPI and for the same reasons. Comparisons between the two regions are flawed with both metrics because the small number of E/W games gives the results of those games that are played excessively heavy influence in determining the comparisons between the two regions.
    2007-2008 ECAC East/NESCAC Interlock Pick 'em winner
    2007-2008 Last Person Standing Winner,
    2013-2014 Last Person Standing Winner (tie)
    2016-2017 Last Person Standing Winner

  8. #8
    Black Bear since D-2
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    Central New York
    Posts
    4,696

    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    Quote Originally Posted by NUProf View Post
    On what basis do you make that claim? That's my question to you. It has flaws that are similar to the RPI and for the same reasons. Comparisons between the two regions are flawed with both metrics because the small number of E/W games gives the results of those games that are played excessively heavy influence in determining the comparisons between the two regions.
    I understand that. There is a serious dearth of comparative D-3 data in many, many cases. None of the available metrics have a lot of grist for the mill at this level.

    But the KRACH has just held more water for years now, and that's clear. Certainly it's the best metric of the three, and you can look that up over the past several years.
    Last edited by Fishman'81; 12-28-2019 at 09:04 PM.

  9. #9
    Colorado Cadets Fan
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    Lafayette, CO
    Posts
    9,796

    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    I am asking for a quantitative explanation as to why you keep saying that "KRACH has just held more water for years now." Is there evidence based data that shows that? I have read claims like that with no supporting documentation at all for years.
    Last edited by NUProf; 12-29-2019 at 03:46 PM.
    2007-2008 ECAC East/NESCAC Interlock Pick 'em winner
    2007-2008 Last Person Standing Winner,
    2013-2014 Last Person Standing Winner (tie)
    2016-2017 Last Person Standing Winner

  10. #10
    Black Bear since D-2
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    Central New York
    Posts
    4,696

    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    Quote Originally Posted by NUProf View Post
    I am asking for a quantitative explanation as to why you keep saying that "KRACH has just held more water for years now." Is there evidence based data that shows that? I have read claims like that with no supporting documentation at all for years.
    Well, you can look up how well the KRACH has predicted outcomes vs. how the PW has, if you like... I have a ball-game to watch. ( And I haven't kept a log, but I'm completely confident that it has.)

    And, as an aside, do you actually believe that the PWR is a more thorough metric? Please. Of course you don't. The KRACH employs far more data, and you know that. "Statistical regression", as you you used to say all the time.

    Now, you're a PW guy? Come on.
    Last edited by Fishman'81; 12-29-2019 at 11:53 PM.

  11. #11
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Nantucket, MA
    Posts
    3,213

    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    The fact its just the two of you bantering here is all anyone needs to know....

    Happy New Year - Welcome To The Roaring 20's!!!
    LakerEagleLover

    I support tuition payments past...

  12. #12
    Black Bear since D-2
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    Central New York
    Posts
    4,696

    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    Quote Originally Posted by LakerEagleLover View Post
    The fact its just the two of you bantering here is all anyone needs to know....
    True enough.

    This D-3 thread is fairly moribund, and I seriously doubt that uscho itself will even continue to exist at all, three years down the road.

    It was fun while it lasted, though.

    But it has to be said that Prof attempts to prey on the general ignorance of the population, even on this humble forum.
    Last edited by Fishman'81; 01-01-2020 at 11:07 PM.

  13. #13

    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    20832/20904/13677/07677/07621
    Posts
    38,972

    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    The "way to early" 2020 NCAA field looks like this.
    First the Pool A 1st place teams. Their PWR ranking is included in ()

    CCC - Univ. of New England (15)
    MASCAC - Plymouth State (57)
    MIAC - Augsburg (24)
    NCHA - Lake Forest (2)
    NEHC - Norwich (3)
    NESCAC - Trinity (1)
    SUNYAC - Oswego (31)
    UCHC - Wilkes (7)

    The remaining 4 teams are the highest remaining teams in the PWR
    1 Trinity 83 10-1-0 0.9091 1 0.6514* 1
    2 Lake Forest 82 13-2-1 0.8438 3 0.6241* 2
    3 Norwich 81 12-2-1 0.8333 4 0.6224* 3
    4 Canton 80 8-2-2 0.7500 11 0.6043* 4
    5 UW-Eau Claire 79 11-2-1 0.8214 6 0.5977* 5
    6 Utica 78 10-2-2 0.7857 7 0.5954* 6
    7 Elmira 76 9-3-1 0.7308 13 0.5934* 7

    7 Wilkes 76 11-2-0 0.8462 2 0.5930* 8
    9 Babson 75 8-3-2 0.6923 18 0.5906 9
    10 Hobart 73 10-3-2 0.7333 12 0.5902* 10
    10 Geneseo 73 12-3-1 0.7812 8 0.5866* 11
    12 UW-Superior 72 12-2-1 0.8333 4 0.5829* 12

    Seeding the tournament
    1 Trinity
    2 Lake Forest
    3 Norwich
    4 Canton
    5 Eau Claire
    6 Utica
    7 Elmira
    8 Wilkes
    9 Univ. of New England
    10 Augsburg
    11 Oswego
    12 Plymouth State

    I'll do another one in a week.
    CCT '77 & '78
    4 kids
    5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
    1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

    Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.
    - Benjamin Franklin

    Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

    I want to live forever. So far, so good.

  14. #14
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    269

    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    28 Middlebury 55 7-6-0 0.5385 35 0.5346 28
    28 St. Norbert 55 8-8-2 0.5000 39 0.5344 29
    30 UW-Stevens Point 53 9-6-1 0.5938 32 0.5340* 30

    How the mighty have fallen
    5x NCAA D3 Ice Hockey Champion: 2008, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2018
    2x Super Bowl Champion: XLII, XLVI

  15. #15
    Do You Believe in Miracles? YES!!!
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    West Chazy, NY
    Posts
    4,272

    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    By my quick look at the PWR this week, I come up with a 10-2 split. Stevenson replaces Wilkes as the UCHC rep. The teams would be seeded this way:

    W1 - Lake Forest (1)
    W2 - Augsburg (27)

    E1 - Norwich (1)
    E2 - Trinity (3)
    E3 - Utica (4)
    E4 - Babson (4)
    E5 - Geneseo (6)
    E6 - Canton (7)
    E7 - Stevenson (10)
    E8 - University of New England (15)
    E9 - Oswego (30)
    E10 - Plymouth State (54)


    First round:

    Plymouth State @ Babson (I switched Plymouth State and Oswego for easy of travel). Strictly by the numbers, Oswego would play here)
    Oswego @ Utica
    University of New England @ Geneseo (499 miles)
    Stevenson @ Canton (459 miles)

    Interesting travel for the first round here... 3 New England schools, 4 New York schools, and one in Maryland... would they drastically play with the matchups to try and reduce travel a little? (For instance, you could switch Canton and U. of New England (496 miles). I would love to have seen what they did with this lineup... I doubt the final setup will only have 2 western teams.
    Last edited by spwood; 01-21-2020 at 02:44 PM.
    Steve
    Penn State Class of '95
    Plattsburgh State Class of '99

    If corn oil is made from corn, and vegetable oil is made from vegetables, then what is baby oil made from?

  16. #16
    Rocking 'The Stone'
    Join Date
    Dec 1999
    Location
    Retired in De Pere
    Posts
    3,587

    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    Wouldn't Eau Claire (8) and Marian (9) get the final two Pool C bids under this scenario?

    https://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairw...ngs/d-iii-men/
    SNC Men:
    Five Time National Champions: 2008, 2011, 2012, 2014. 2018....
    NCHA Champions: 1997, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017. 2018, 2019...
    SNC Women:
    O'Brien Cup Champions: 2013.

  17. #17
    Proud supporter of Osmirwich hockey
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Northfield, VT
    Posts
    16,555
    Quote Originally Posted by pete99race View Post
    Wouldn't Eau Claire (8) and Marian (9) get the final two Pool C bids under this scenario?

    https://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairw...ngs/d-iii-men/
    I think hes actually got it correct. Oswego and Stevenson technically lead their conferences by the current standings.

    That makes the Pool C bids:

    Utica, Babson, Geneseo and Canton. All of which are above Eau Claire and Marian currently.

  18. #18
    Rocking 'The Stone'
    Join Date
    Dec 1999
    Location
    Retired in De Pere
    Posts
    3,587

    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    Quote Originally Posted by PrezdeJohnson09 View Post
    I think hes actually got it correct. Oswego and Stevenson technically lead their conferences by the current standings.

    That makes the Pool C bids:

    Utica, Babson, Geneseo and Canton. All of which are above Eau Claire and Marian currently.
    Thanks Prez...I didn't look that deep..,,
    SNC Men:
    Five Time National Champions: 2008, 2011, 2012, 2014. 2018....
    NCHA Champions: 1997, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017. 2018, 2019...
    SNC Women:
    O'Brien Cup Champions: 2013.

  19. #19
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Feb 2001
    Location
    Rochester, NY USA
    Posts
    5,993

    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    Quote Originally Posted by spwood View Post
    Interesting travel for the first round here... 3 New England schools, 4 New York schools, and one in Maryland... would they drastically play with the matchups to try and reduce travel a little? (For instance, you could switch Canton and U. of New England (496 miles). I would love to have seen what they did with this lineup... I doubt the final setup will only have 2 western teams.
    As long as the match ups are within 500 miles, they usually try for bracket integrity first with the caveat being what type of travel may occur in the second round.
    Russell Jaslow
    [Former] SUNYAC Correspondent
    U.S. College Hockey Online

  20. #20
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Posts
    273

    Re: 2019-20 pwr

    I have been watching these posts for a few years, and they always interest me. However, I am not a math major (actually American History!), so my question: Is there someplace I can go to find an explanation of KRACH, PairWise and the RPI and, explain it to me like I am a 6-year-old?

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •