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Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of letters

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  • #31
    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

    Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
    I still think Eeyore's guess is right... I need to see if I'm screwing things up by how I'm deleting the tie.
    Oh. It's because if you take out the tie, the teams aren't well connected because none of the NEWHA have beaten anyone outside the conference. If I make all games involving NEWHA teams exhibitions, the new KRACH values do converge.

    Here's the thing though -- you can still calculate RRWP when that happens by separating the teams into groups (i.e. the NEWHA and everyone else). Take out all the games not involving the NEWHA, calculate KRACH for everyone, and assign a 1.000 winning percentage for everyone vs. the NEWHA teams.

    ...But even when you do that, RRWP still doesn't match up to USCHO's.

    I'm so annoyed.
    Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
    Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
    Twitter: @Salzano14


    Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

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    • #32
      Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

      Originally posted by Still Eeyore View Post
      My hypothesis is not that there is an additional dummy team used in the RRWP calculation.
      For what it's worth -- I actually tried the same thing CH86 did, because if the ratings were calculated by adding a tie versus a fictional team, then as far as the system knows, there's 41 teams playing each other. So, if you plug them in as another opponent while calculating RRWP, I thought maybe that would be where they were getting it. But as CH86 pointed, out, that ain't it...

      UPDATE: I pulled men's KRACH for every place I could find on Google (which is to say, Jim Dahl's and CHN, plus USCHO) and they were all different... lol. CHN's RRWP calculates the way I expected it to. Jim Dahl's doesn't have RRWP. A few historical KRACH posts that had RRWP (eLynah's) also matched what we would expect for RRWP.

      USCHO's RRWP didn't match any of them, so now I'm thinking they're notusing the removed-tie KRACH to calculate RRWP.

      I really have no idea what calculation USCHO is doing for RRWP in men's or women's, but really it just appears to be straight up wrong. I'll probably build RRWP (the way we expect it to be calculated) into my spreadsheet in the next few weeks.
      Last edited by TonyTheTiger20; 01-08-2019, 01:10 PM.
      Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
      Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
      Twitter: @Salzano14


      Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

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      • #33
        Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

        If the season ended today, the NCAA tourney committee would have an interesting seeding vs. travel decision to make with OSU climbing up to #4 in the Pairwise. Would they send the #8 seed CHA champ (presumably Robert Morris or Mercyhurst) to Columbus to save a flight? Would Wisconsin then be stuck with a Princeton team that gave them a couple close games in Madison back in October? I realize there's a good couple months of hockey to play (especially conference tourneys will change these seed), but I'm curious what the NCAA would do if they were dealt this hand in March?

        Using the current Pairwise rankings, this would be the bracket:
        8 CHA Champ @ 1 Wisconsin (Flight)
        5 Princeton @ 4 Ohio State (Flight)
        6 Clarkson @ 3 Northeastern (Bus)
        7 Cornell @ 2 Minnesota (Flight)
        2005 Piston Cup Champion

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        • #34
          Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

          I believe Robert Morris is the only team that can bus to Ohio State, off the top of my head. So if they make the tournament, there's a 100% chance they send them to Columbus.

          Looking like they may be changing that for next year though.......

          That would send 8 RMU to 4 OSU, 7 Cornell to 1 Wisconsin, 6 Clarkson to 2 Minnesota, and 5 Princeton to 3 Northeastern. 2 flights, 2 busses.

          Such a stupid rule, my God.

          EDIT: No, Mercyhurst is a bus to OSU too. So if MU or RMU wins the CHA and OSU is top 4, that's where they'll be going.
          Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
          Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
          Twitter: @Salzano14


          Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

          Comment


          • #35
            Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

            PairWise question:

            How are ties in the overall PairWise rankings interpreted come tournament selection time? I know that RPI is the tiebreaker when awarding PairWise points between two teams, but how does it work when a number of teams are tied when all is said and done? If a number of teams were tied at say #5, things could get really interesting in a hurry if there's not a clear cut tiebreaker.
            2005 Piston Cup Champion

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            • #36
              Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

              Originally posted by ChickHicks86 View Post
              PairWise question:

              How are ties in the overall PairWise rankings interpreted come tournament selection time? I know that RPI is the tiebreaker when awarding PairWise points between two teams, but how does it work when a number of teams are tied when all is said and done? If a number of teams were tied at say #5, things could get really interesting in a hurry if there's not a clear cut tiebreaker.
              RPI breaks that tie as well. So if you want to know how the teams rank, it almost always follows the RPI order.
              "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
              And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

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              • #37
                Originally posted by ARM View Post
                RPI breaks that tie as well. So if you want to know how the teams rank, it almost always follows the RPI order.
                It's a little wild this year. BC is locked into losing the comparison to UMD and there are a couple other flipped comparisons too. More so than usual anyway.
                Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                Twitter: @Salzano14


                Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

                Comment


                • #38
                  Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

                  First bracketology of the year: https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...a-northeastern

                  I really, really, really don't know what the committee would do if it ended this way. You can keep perfect bracket integrity even with minimizing flights (which, as I scream into the wind every year, is THEIR ONLY DIRECTIVE), but there is a ton of money and driving time to be saved by sending Cornell to Clarkson, Princeton to Minnesota, and BC to Northeastern. It'll be interesting to see where this all shakes out.

                  Also, with two teams pretty much being required to fly out west (unless OSU gets in, which I don't see happening given their general free fall plus having 2 more with Wisconsin left, or if someone random wins the WCHA, which, again, lol nope), the winner of the CHA won't likely change anything, since you're going to have 2 flights and 2 bus trips regardless. The CHA champ would be going to the 1 (unless someone really crazy wins another conference that's ranked lower than the CHA champ) and that's that.
                  Last edited by TonyTheTiger20; 01-29-2019, 11:05 AM.
                  Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                  Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                  Twitter: @Salzano14


                  Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

                    Forgive my ignorance as I'm new to how the ncaa playoff format works. I'm wondering as to how these teams are picked and the playoffs haven't even started yet. If a Princeton or Clarkson or Cornell in the ECAC lose in the playoffs, am I understanding right that it doesn't mean squat. They would go to the final 8 and the team that upset them wouldn't. If this is the case, why have playoffs? Im confused!! I would appreciate any information on this please and thank you.

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                    • #40
                      Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

                      Originally posted by 99hockey View Post
                      Forgive my ignorance as I'm new to how the ncaa playoff format works. I'm wondering as to how these teams are picked and the playoffs haven't even started yet. If a Princeton or Clarkson or Cornell in the ECAC lose in the playoffs, am I understanding right that it doesn't mean squat. They would go to the final 8 and the team that upset them wouldn't. If this is the case, why have playoffs? Im confused!! I would appreciate any information on this please and thank you.
                      The top eight teams in the Pairwise make the NCAA tournament, unless a team from outside the top 8 wins their conference tournament and thus wins that conference's "automatic bid". Right now, we already "know" that the CHA winner will be someone not in the top eight. So Grant's description above (below) is assuming the NCAA will consist of the top seven in the Pairwise plus the CHA winner. If there was to be a 'upset winner' of one of the other conferences, then the NCAA field would be the 'top six' plus CHA winner plus upset winner.

                      Right now we 'know' that Wisconsin. Minnesota and probably Northeastern can't fall far enough to find themselves out of the tournament. So we 'know' it will be Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northeastern, and the CHA winner. The other four spots are very much up for grabs.

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                      • #41
                        Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

                        Originally posted by 99hockey View Post
                        Forgive my ignorance as I'm new to how the ncaa playoff format works. I'm wondering as to how these teams are picked and the playoffs haven't even started yet. If a Princeton or Clarkson or Cornell in the ECAC lose in the playoffs, am I understanding right that it doesn't mean squat. They would go to the final 8 and the team that upset them wouldn't. If this is the case, why have playoffs? Im confused!! I would appreciate any information on this please and thank you.
                        Hello!

                        So, 8 teams make the tournament. Those 8 teams consist of:

                        --The WCHA tournament champion
                        --The Hockey East tournament champion
                        --The ECAC tournament champion
                        --The CHA tournament champion
                        --The four teams ranked highest in the Pairwise Rankings that did not win their conference championship.

                        So, to answer this hypothetical:
                        If a Princeton or Clarkson or Cornell in the ECAC lose in the playoffs, am I understanding right that it doesn't mean squat.
                        If Princeton or Clarkson or Cornell lose in the playoffs, but they are still one of the 4 highest ranked teams that didn't win their conference tournament, they would be in. But if they aren't, they would be out. And if someone like, say, St. Lawrence, wins the ECAC, then St. Lawrence would be in the tournament.

                        So right now the Pairwise is:

                        1 Wisconsin
                        2 Minnesota
                        3 Northeastern
                        4 Clarkson
                        5 Princeton
                        6 Cornell
                        7 Boston College
                        8 Ohio State

                        Ohio State wouldn't make the tournament as it stands today, because someone has to win the CHA championship, and they would knock Ohio State out.

                        If St. Lawrence wins the ECAC tournament, then SLU would be in and that would knock out Boston College.
                        If Minnesota-Duluth also wins the WCHA tournament, then SLU and UMD would be in and BC and Cornell would be out.
                        If Vermont also wins the Hockey East tournament, then SLU and UMD and UVM would be in and BC and Cornell and Princeton would be out.

                        Think of it this way -- The top 7 teams in the Pairwise are expected to make the tournament, plus the CHA winner. Every "upset champion" in the other three conferences reduces that "7" by one. In order to absolutely lock yourself into the NCAA tournament, you need to either win your conference tournament or be in the top 4. Otherwise you're at risk of being knocked out.

                        That's a quick and dirty crash course -- hopefully that wasn't too much!
                        Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                        Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                        Twitter: @Salzano14


                        Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

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                        • #42
                          Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

                          Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
                          It's a little wild this year. BC is locked into losing the comparison to UMD and there are a couple other flipped comparisons too. More so than usual anyway.
                          I miss the "TUC cliff"... NOT!!

                          Good job on corrected RPIs and 'bracketology'.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

                            Originally posted by robertearle View Post
                            I miss the "TUC cliff"... NOT!!

                            Good job on corrected RPIs and 'bracketology'.
                            My least favorite thing about this year was that since BC and UMD don't share any common opponents, BC was locked into losing the Duluth comparison after week 1 (!!!!), even if BC went undefeated the rest of the way and UMD went winless every game the rest of the way. lol
                            Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                            Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                            Twitter: @Salzano14


                            Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

                              Thank you Tony and Robert. Makes sense now. I appreciate it

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                              • #45
                                Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

                                Thank you Tony and Robert. Makes sense now. I appreciate it

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