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Thread: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of letters

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    Lightbulb Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of letters

    Quote Originally Posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
    Pretty big news first spotted by Nicole Haase

    https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...e-flights-rule

    -RPI will now award 90% of a win for winning in OT and 10% of a win for losing in OT (this part is minor news)

    -Looking looks minimizing fights in the quarterfinals might go away in 2019-2020???!!!????!!!?!
    Starting a new thread to combine all the numbers related things

    So turns out the RPI thing appears to have been rejected, which means I'm about 20% happier than I was this weekend: https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...-womens-hockey

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let


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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

    Slightly off point, but if the ECAC had an ARM, we could learn when in recorded history both Brown and Union had 2Ws at this point in the season.

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

    Brown actually had two W's after its first two games two seasons ago, when it played Sacred Heart. Won 6-1, 7-0. Finished the season 7-22-0.

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

    GRaNT Rankings are out -- although I'll feel better about them after Franklin Pierce plays a few more games lol

    https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...puter-rankings

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

    Quote Originally Posted by thirdtime's . . . View Post
    Slightly off point, but if the ECAC had an ARM, we could learn when in recorded history both Brown and Union had 2Ws at this point in the season.
    The ECAC is looking for a prosthetic ARM, if you will.

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

    Quote Originally Posted by Leather helmet View Post
    The ECAC is looking for a prosthetic ARM, if you will.
    I thought Dr. Richard Kimble was looking for that...
    "For absolutely no reason we went to Canada and when we were coming back over the border they asked us if we had anything to declare...
    I said yes...War." Steven Wright

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

    Quote Originally Posted by Leather helmet View Post
    The ECAC is looking for a prosthetic ARM, if you will.
    This was funny and you should be proud of this

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

    I ran a geometric mean on each conference using KRACH -- the main takeaway here is that the bottom of the ECAC is really, really bad:

    Code:
    WCHA	WHEA	ECAC	CHA
    1813.09	637.67	387.65	189.04
    993.18	514.85	338.09	115.10
    447.41	360.75	319.61	70.43
    358.69	257.41	205.15	41.90
    89.35	159.44	141.90	15.96
    77.49	127.30	79.41	12.76
    20.65	91.46	76.06	48.54
    236.45	54.67	67.67	
    	38.65	29.82	
    	8.68	21.92	
    	126.36	19.87	
    		18.58	
    		83.82
    Bold number at the bottom is each conference's rating.

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

    if 18.58 is really, really bad, what is 8.68?
    but you are right, 4 teams under 40, even the CHA only has 2
    Israel depends on a wall for their security, and it is doing the job. Democrazies need to explain why one wouldn't work for the USA. Baring that, build a wall Mr. Trump, so big the Chineeze have to rename theirs.

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

    Quote Originally Posted by pokechecker View Post
    what is 8.68?
    I know it's rhetorical but it would make for good Jeopardy...
    Hockey East teams for 200...
    This Catholic school is located in Worcester, MA...
    What is Holy Cross..
    "For absolutely no reason we went to Canada and when we were coming back over the border they asked us if we had anything to declare...
    I said yes...War." Steven Wright

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

    Pairwise Calculator is live: https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...ngs-calculator

    You'll notice that USCHO has St. Anselm and mine doesn't (or rather, mine just puts St. Anselm at the bottom). With only 5 teams, the NEWHA will not play enough games against each other to get to the 20 required games against D-I/D-II competition to be eligible for selection (even including the 3 game NEWHA playoffs). However, Post and Sacred Heart play enough non-conference games to qualify, so those two teams *are* included (but won't be a factor).

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

    I was crunching down some Frosted Flakes for lunch, and decided to channel my inner TonyTheTiger20 and crunch some numbers too. I know thereís one series left this weekend (actually a pretty interesting one), but the halfway point of the season is a fun time to look at possible NCAA tourney brackets. I looked at travel distances for the Top 10 Pairwise teams, plus the most likely CHA autobid contenders. Barring the predictably unpredictable conference tournament party crashers, this might be a year where bracket integrity survives the perennial travel budget rearrangements. More than likely, the CHA champ will go to Madison or Minneapolis. Ohio State would fly anywhere if they get in (another reason Michigan, Michigan State, and Notre Dame should add womenís hockey, but thatís a discussion for another timeÖ). That leaves a lot of eastern bus trips for 3-4 seedsí visiting teams, unless OSU gets up to 5 or 6 and gets sent west.

    Thereís a reason they donít seed the NCAA tournament in December, but itís still kind of fun to see where the teams might be playing in March!
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1___Wisconsin_____Wisconsin
    2___Minnesota_____B__Minnesota
    3___Northeastern___F_____F___Northeastern
    4___Providence_____F_____F_____B___Providence
    5___Clarkson_______F_____F_____B_____B__Clarkson
    6___Cornell________F_____F_____B_____B_____B____Co rnell
    7___Princeton______F_____F_____B_____B_____B_____B __Princeton
    8___Ohio State_____F_____F_____F_____F_____F_____F_____F___ Ohio State
    9___Colgate_______F_____F_____B_____B_____B_____B_ ____B_____F___Colgate
    10__Boston College_F_____F_____B_____B_____B_____B_____B_____ F_____B__Boston College
    CHA_Mercyhurst____F_____F_____F_____F_____B_____B_ ____F_____B_____B_____F__Mercyhurst
    CHA_Robert Morris__F_____F_____F_____F_____F_____B_____B_____ B_____F_____F_____B

    B = BUS
    F = FLIGHT
    Flight occurs when NCAA Miles > 400

    I apologize the formatting stinks. I have an Excel sheet, but couldnít figure out how to post it :)
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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

    Those 2 games in Ireland are looking bigger and bigger.

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

    Maybe someone can look at how much Belfast flights/lodging compares to Boston...

    https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...sota-wisconsin

    In all seriousness though, this season's Clarkson-Northeastern matchup should be a good measuring stick for how the top tiers of Hockey East and ECAC compare. Any game results from across the Atlantic will have to be taken with a grain of salt(water), but it should still be fun to see!
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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

    Hey, some of you other people are good at math, right?

    How in the world is USCHO getting its Round Robin Winning Percentage (RRWP)? https://www.uscho.com/rankings/krach/d-i-women/ I cannot for the life of me figure it out.

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

    Quote Originally Posted by ChickHicks86 View Post
    I was crunching down some Frosted Flakes for lunch, and decided to channel my inner TonyTheTiger20 and crunch some numbers too. I know there’s one series left this weekend (actually a pretty interesting one), but the halfway point of the season is a fun time to look at possible NCAA tourney brackets. I looked at travel distances for the Top 10 Pairwise teams, plus the most likely CHA autobid contenders. Barring the predictably unpredictable conference tournament party crashers, this might be a year where bracket integrity survives the perennial travel budget rearrangements. More than likely, the CHA champ will go to Madison or Minneapolis. Ohio State would fly anywhere if they get in (another reason Michigan, Michigan State, and Notre Dame should add women’s hockey, but that’s a discussion for another time…). That leaves a lot of eastern bus trips for 3-4 seeds’ visiting teams, unless OSU gets up to 5 or 6 and gets sent west.

    There’s a reason they don’t seed the NCAA tournament in December, but it’s still kind of fun to see where the teams might be playing in March!
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1___Wisconsin_____Wisconsin
    2___Minnesota_____B__Minnesota
    3___Northeastern___F_____F___Northeastern
    4___Providence_____F_____F_____B___Providence
    5___Clarkson_______F_____F_____B_____B__Clarkson
    6___Cornell________F_____F_____B_____B_____B____Co rnell
    7___Princeton______F_____F_____B_____B_____B_____B __Princeton
    8___Ohio State_____F_____F_____F_____F_____F_____F_____F___ Ohio State
    9___Colgate_______F_____F_____B_____B_____B_____B_ ____B_____F___Colgate
    10__Boston College_F_____F_____B_____B_____B_____B_____B_____ F_____B__Boston College
    CHA_Mercyhurst____F_____F_____F_____F_____B_____B_ ____F_____B_____B_____F__Mercyhurst
    CHA_Robert Morris__F_____F_____F_____F_____F_____B_____B_____ B_____F_____F_____B

    B = BUS
    F = FLIGHT
    Flight occurs when NCAA Miles > 400

    I apologize the formatting stinks. I have an Excel sheet, but couldn’t figure out how to post it
    I like this a lot, A+

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

    Quote Originally Posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
    Hey, some of you other people are good at math, right?

    How in the world is USCHO getting its Round Robin Winning Percentage (RRWP)? https://www.uscho.com/rankings/krach/d-i-women/ I cannot for the life of me figure it out.
    I'm not sure I have much of a claim to being good at math, but I spent some time with the RRWP, and I couldn't match the USCHO numbers either. For each team, I calculated an expected winning percentage from the KRACH ranking if they were to play all 39 other teams (which supposedly is what the RRWP is). I used three scenarios: straight-up average winning percentage, KRACH predicted results of a 1 game series, and KRACH predicted results of an N game series. The closest I could come to matching USCHO was setting N to a 17 game series, and that was only working for the teams in the middle of the pack:

    USCHO | Avg. % | 1 Game | N=17 Gm.
    0.9567 | 0.9470 | 1.0000 | 0.9487 Wisconsin
    0.9206 | 0.9040 | 0.9744 | 0.9065 Minnesota
    0.8289 | 0.8046 | 0.9487 | 0.8054 Northeastern
    0.7736 | 0.7493 | 0.9231 | 0.7481 Princeton
    0.7654 | 0.7414 | 0.8974 | 0.7406 Ohio State
    0.7582 | 0.7345 | 0.8718 | 0.7300 Providence
    0.7405 | 0.7174 | 0.8462 | 0.7164 Clarkson
    0.7394 | 0.7164 | 0.8205 | 0.7149 Saint Anselm
    0.7379 | 0.7149 | 0.7949 | 0.7119 Cornell
    0.6663 | 0.6483 | 0.7692 | 0.6501 Minnesota Duluth
    0.6616 | 0.6440 | 0.7436 | 0.6425 Colgate
    0.6524 | 0.6355 | 0.7179 | 0.6335 Boston College
    0.6226 | 0.6087 | 0.6923 | 0.6124 Boston University
    0.6097 | 0.5971 | 0.6667 | 0.5958 Maine
    0.6009 | 0.5893 | 0.6410 | 0.5913 Mercyhurst
    0.5866 | 0.5766 | 0.6154 | 0.5762 Merrimack
    0.5760 | 0.5672 | 0.5897 | 0.5686 Minnesota State
    0.5621 | 0.5549 | 0.5641 | 0.5566 St. Lawrence
    0.5129 | 0.5113 | 0.5385 | 0.5128 Robert Morris
    0.5066 | 0.5058 | 0.5128 | 0.5068 Bemidji State
    0.4925 | 0.4934 | 0.4872 | 0.4932 Connecticut
    0.4871 | 0.4887 | 0.4615 | 0.4872 New Hampshire
    0.4565 | 0.4616 | 0.4359 | 0.4615 Penn State
    0.4355 | 0.4431 | 0.4103 | 0.4434 Vermont
    0.4109 | 0.4212 | 0.3846 | 0.4208 Quinnipiac
    0.3974 | 0.4092 | 0.3590 | 0.4087 St. Cloud State
    0.3823 | 0.3957 | 0.3333 | 0.3967 Harvard
    0.3721 | 0.3865 | 0.3077 | 0.3891 Sacred Heart
    0.3658 | 0.3808 | 0.2821 | 0.3771 Rensselaer
    0.3217 | 0.3406 | 0.2564 | 0.3394 Brown
    0.3185 | 0.3377 | 0.2308 | 0.3379 Syracuse
    0.2967 | 0.3174 | 0.2051 | 0.3213 Franklin Pierce
    0.2887 | 0.3100 | 0.1795 | 0.3137 Yale
    0.2654 | 0.2880 | 0.1538 | 0.2866 RIT
    0.2159 | 0.2400 | 0.1282 | 0.2368 Dartmouth
    0.2051 | 0.2292 | 0.1026 | 0.2293 Lindenwood
    0.1832 | 0.2072 | 0.0769 | 0.2066 Saint Michael's
    0.1325 | 0.1541 | 0.0513 | 0.1554 Holy Cross
    0.1311 | 0.1526 | 0.0256 | 0.1538 Union
    0.0626 | 0.0751 | 0.0000 | 0.0724 Post


    In short, I too have no idea where the USCHO RRWP is coming from. My best guess is it has something to do with rounding (my predictions round up from 0.5 like most people) or how it handles existing ties, but a guess is exactly what that is...
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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

    Using the ratings from the USCHO page, I get the same calculations as ChickHicks86. This gives a RRWP that is higher than the USCHO RRWP for teams with a KRACH greater than average, and a lower RRWP for teams with a KRACH below average. This suggests that the KRACH used to calculate RRWP on the page is based upon an actual winning percentage that is farther away from .500.

    My understanding is that USCHO's KRACH calculations are based upon actual winning percentages modified by adding a dummy team that is 0-0-1 against all of the real teams to each team's record, in order to prevent teams with a 1.0000 or 0.0000 winning percentage from blowing up to positive or negative infinity. This has the effect of pushing everyone's winning percentage towards .500. So, my first guess is that the RRWP they calculate has this dummy tie removed. They probably do this so that a team with a perfect (or perfectly bad) record will show up with the same RRWP. If it were me, I'd drop the dummy team entirely once it's no longer needed, or just stop being afraid of infinity in the first place, but it's hardly the first time USCHO does something dumb with its ratings.

    In order to test this, I'd have to build a KRACH calculator, which I have no intention of taking the time to do.
    Last edited by Still Eeyore; 01-07-2019 at 06:57 AM.

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

    Quote Originally Posted by Still Eeyore View Post
    Using the ratings from the USCHO page, I get the same calculations as ChickHicks86. This gives a RRWP that is higher than the USCHO RRWP for teams with a KRACH greater than average, and a lower RRWP for teams with a KRACH below average. This suggests that the KRACH used to calculate RRWP on the page is based upon an actual winning percentage that is farther away from .500.

    My understanding is that USCHO's KRACH calculations are based upon actual winning percentages modified by adding a dummy team that is 0-0-1 against all of the real teams to each team's record, in order to prevent teams with a 1.0000 or 0.0000 winning percentage from blowing up to positive or negative infinity. This has the effect of pushing everyone's winning percentage towards .500. So, my first guess is that the RRWP they calculate has this dummy tie removed. They probably do this so that a team with a perfect (or perfectly bad) record will show up with the same RRWP. If it were me, I'd drop the dummy team entirely once it's no longer needed, or just stop being afraid of infinity in the first place, but it's hardly the first time USCHO does something dumb with its ratings.

    In order to test this, I'd have to build a KRACH calculator, which I have no intention of taking the time to do.
    As a quick check, I created an average team with a KRACH rating of 100 and plugged it into my spreadsheet. The RRWP numbers inch closer to the USCHO numbers, but they are still closer to my original predictions. Another odd observation is that the margin of error is largest around rankings 3-4 and 35-36 (plotting ranking on X axis and difference between USCHO and me on Y axis makes for an interesting visual). Maybe there are two dummy teams floating in USCHO's calculations? Beats me...

    USCHO | Modified CH86 | Original CH86
    0.9567 | 0.9475 | 0.9470 Wisconsin
    0.9206 | 0.9048 | 0.9040 Minnesota
    0.8289 | 0.8058 | 0.8046 Northeastern
    0.7736 | 0.7505 | 0.7493 Princeton
    0.7654 | 0.7426 | 0.7414 Ohio State
    0.7582 | 0.7356 | 0.7345 Providence
    0.7405 | 0.7185 | 0.7174 Clarkson
    0.7394 | 0.7176 | 0.7164 Saint Anselm
    0.7379 | 0.7161 | 0.7149 Cornell
    0.6663 | 0.6492 | 0.6483 Minnesota Duluth
    0.6616 | 0.6449 | 0.6440 Colgate
    0.6524 | 0.6364 | 0.6355 Boston College
    0.6226 | 0.6094 | 0.6087 Boston University
    0.6097 | 0.5977 | 0.5971 Maine
    0.6009 | 0.5899 | 0.5893 Mercyhurst
    0.5866 | 0.5771 | 0.5766 Merrimack
    0.576 | 0.5676 | 0.5672 Minnesota State
    0.5621 | 0.5552 | 0.5549 St. Lawrence
    0.5129 | 0.5114 | 0.5113 Robert Morris
    0.5066 | 0.5059 | 0.5058 Bemidji State
    0.0000 | 0.5000 | -N/A- Average University
    0.4925 | 0.4934 | 0.4934 Connecticut
    0.4871 | 0.4886 | 0.4887 New Hampshire
    0.4565 | 0.4613 | 0.4616 Penn State
    0.4355 | 0.4427 | 0.4431 Vermont
    0.4109 | 0.4207 | 0.4212 Quinnipiac
    0.3974 | 0.4086 | 0.4092 St. Cloud State
    0.3823 | 0.3950 | 0.3957 Harvard
    0.3721 | 0.3858 | 0.3865 Sacred Heart
    0.3658 | 0.3801 | 0.3808 Rensselaer
    0.3217 | 0.3396 | 0.3406 Brown
    0.3185 | 0.3367 | 0.3377 Syracuse
    0.2967 | 0.3164 | 0.3174 Franklin Pierce
    0.2887 | 0.3089 | 0.3100 Yale
    0.2654 | 0.2869 | 0.2880 RIT
    0.2159 | 0.2388 | 0.2400 Dartmouth
    0.2051 | 0.2280 | 0.2292 Lindenwood
    0.1832 | 0.2060 | 0.2072 Saint Michael's
    0.1325 | 0.1530 | 0.1541 Holy Cross
    0.1311 | 0.1515 | 0.1526 Union
    0.0626 | 0.0745 | 0.0751 Post
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