Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of letters

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Thanks, Grant. I sort-of figured that, but thought asking was worth it, anyway.

Cheers!

PS -- I added a decimal place to the BCI RPI for fun, since the top two are so close.

[ARM]

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Sorry, that was probably nonsense to most of you!

EDIT: Forgot to take into account the fact that UM has the 1.5 fewer wins over UMD. So yes, USCHO's PWR is undercounting those UMD QWB points for Wisconsin and it could conceivably flip the two teams. Made some clarifying edits above.

The part that follows the disclaimer is the actual nonsense. Both UM and UW have two wins over UMD. You're counting wins for the Badgers that they have yet to earn. Or you are assuming both will win out, in which case you're then shorting UM by one win over UMD. You stats guys are terrible at logic.

[ARM]

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Really not that important for the purpose of the question, is it?

No, but neither is Bob Costas, and that doesn't stop you from bringing him up over and over again.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Or you are assuming both will win out, in which case you're then shorting UM by one win over UMD.

Lol yes I am -- wouldn't that make UM 2-1-1 and UW 4-0-0, a difference of +1.5 wins for Wisconsin?

[ARM]

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Lol yes I am -- wouldn't that make UM 2-1-1 and UW 4-0-0, a difference of +1.5 wins for Wisconsin?

No. If you're going to do the stats thing, you have to get your stats correct. The Gophers are 2-1-1 vs UMD with the teams' fifth meeting taking place today. They played a NC game in January at the Minnesota Cup.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

They played a NC game in January at the Minnesota Cup.

Ohhhhhh yes, that's right.

This was really just an example, it wasn't intended to be a rigorous proof lol. The point is, any difference in games won against any teams in the top 12 could conceivably make USCHO's and BCI's Pairwise differ if UM/UW's RPIs (or anyone else's) are close enough.

[robertearle]

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

This was really just an example, it wasn't intended to be a rigorous proof lol.

Yes, while my question was triggered by the current UW-UM-UMD numbers and situation, it really was meant to be more generic and hypothetical than all this.

[ARM]

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

The point is, any difference in games won against any teams in the top 12 could conceivably make USCHO's and BCI's Pairwise differ if UM/UW's RPIs (or anyone else's) are close enough.

Got it.

Maybe the real reason that the NCAA uses RPI/PWR instead of a decent ranking system is that it gives us plenty to talk about. I imagine if they ever do replace it, then they'll go to something even worse, like what they started to use for basketball this year.

[D2D]

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Pending the outcome of the Minnesota/Minnesota Duluth game today, I see that the Gophers and Badgers temporarily have exactly the same RPI, at .6432. Does anyone remember the two top teams in the PairWise having the same RPI, down to the 4th decimal?

[ARM]

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Even I'm not enough of a geek to remember something as random as that.

[robertearle]

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

Even I'm not enough of a geek to remember something as random as that.

I guess I'm close, but not quite there. I can remember discussions of 'beyond four decimal places' but not the specific teams or year, etc.

Maybe Grant does (!)

[D2D]

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

With their win this afternoon the Gophers now vault ahead of the Badgers in the RPI and lead by an insurmountable 0.0043.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

I guess I'm close, but not quite there. I can remember discussions of 'beyond four decimal places' but not the specific teams or year, etc.

Maybe Grant does (!)

Oh I'm sure it's happened mid-season before... couldn't tell you a specific time, but I feel like I remember it happening! haha

[Still Eeyore]

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

With their win this afternoon the Gophers now vault ahead of the Badgers in the RPI and lead by an insurmountable 0.0043.

KRACH gives Minnesota a 49.9% chance of beating Wisconsin in a single game.

[ARM]

Re: Fun With Numbers 2019: PWR, RPI, KRACH, GRaNT, WCHODR, & other assortments of let

KRACH gives Minnesota a 49.9% chance of beating Wisconsin in a single game.

So you're saying there's a chance?