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Atlantic Hockey 2018 - 2019 Predictions.

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  • #16
    Re: Atlantic Hockey 2018 - 2019 Predictions.

    So far not much clinched, but that should change this weekend. AIC is the only team to clinch a top 4 position, and Canisius is the only team to be eliminated from the possibility of finishing top 4 (with RoMo and HC hanging by a thread). Only AIC, Bentley, RIT, and Air Force can win the conference title, with AIC having the opportunity to clinch without even playing this weekend. At some point next week I'll figure out all the possible tiebreaking scenarios which should add some clarity as well.



    AIC (Has clinched top 4 position)
    - Clinches league if Bentley takes 1 point or less and RIT does not sweep. (AIC wins tiebreakers against Bentley and Air Force if no other team is involved).

    BENTLEY (Clinched home ice in the 1st round of the playoffs)
    - Clinches bye with sweep or a 3 point weekend.
    - Clinches bye with a split if Mercyhurst does not take EXACTLY 3 points, RIT gets swept, or if Sacred Heart takes 1 point or less.
    - Clinches bye with a 1 point weekend if Sacred Heart is swept or if Mercyhurst takes 1 point or less.
    - Clinches bye if Mercyhurst is swept.
    - Clinches top 4 with a sweep if RIT drops 2 points or more, Air Force drops 2 points or more, or Sacred Heart does not sweep.
    - Clinches top 4 with a 3 point weekend if RIT drops 2 points or more, Sacred Heart drops 2 points or more, or Air Force drops EXACTLY 3 points.
    - Clinches top 4 with a split if two or more of the following happen: (1)RIT is swept, (2)Sacred Heart drops 3 points or more, or (3)Mercyhurst does not get EXACTLY 3 points.
    - Clinches top 4 with a 1 point weekend if Sacred Heart is swept and Mercyhurst takes 1 point or less.

    RIT
    - Clinches home ice in the 1st round of the playoffs if they are not swept.
    - Clinches home ice in the 1st round of the playoffs if two of the following happen: (1)Holy Cross does not sweep, (2)Mercyhurst does not record at least 2 points, (3)Niagara does not record at least two points, (4)Army does not record at least two points
    - Clinches a bye with a sweep if either Sacred Heart is swept or Mercyhurst takes 1 point or less.
    - Clinches a bye with a 3 point weekend if Mercyhurst is swept.
    - Clinches top 4 with a sweep if Sacred Heart is swept and Mercyhurst takes 1 point or less.
    - Eliminated from title contention if they do not sweep.

    Air Force (Eliminated from title contention via bad tiebreakers)
    - Clinches home ice in the 1st round of the playoffs if they are not swept.
    - Clinches home ice in the first round of the playoffs if two of the following happen: (1)Robert Morris does not sweep, (2)Holy Cross does not sweep, (3)Niagara does not record at least two points, (4)Army does not record at least two points.
    - Clinches a bye with a sweep.
    - Clinches top 4 with a sweep if Sacred Heart is swept.
    - Eliminated from title contention if they do not sweep.

    SACRED HEART (Eliminated from title contention)
    - Clinches home ice in the 1st round of the playoffs with 2 points or more.
    - Clinches home ice in the 1st round of the playoffs with 1 point if two or more of the following occur: (1)Mercyhurst does not record at least two points or Robert Morris does not sweep, (2)Niagara does not record at least two points, (3)Holy Cross does not sweep
    - Clinches home ice in the 1st round of the playoffs if two of the following occur: (1)Robert Morris does not pick up at least 3 points, (2)Mercyhurst is swept and Robert Morris picks up exactly 3 points, (3)Niagara is swept, (4)Holy Cross does not record 3 or more points.
    - Clinches a bye with a sweep and an Air Force sweep.
    - Is eliminated from top 4 contention if they are swept, Air Force sweeps, RIT sweeps, and Bentley takes 1 point or more.

    Mercyhurst (Eliminated from title contention)
    - Clinches home ice in the 1st round of the playoffs with 3 points or more.
    - Clinches home ice in the 1st round of the playoffs with 2 points if two of the following occur: (1)Robert Morris does not sweep, (2)Holy Cross does not sweep, (3)Army does not record at least two points, (4)Niagara does not record at least two points.
    - Clinches home ice in the 1st round of the playoffs with 1 point if two of the following occur: (1)Robert Morris does not record at least 3 points, (2)Holy Cross does not record at least 3 points, (3)Army is swept, (4)Niagara is swept.
    - Clinches home ice in the 1st round of the playoffs if Robert Morris does not record at least two points AND Holy Cross does not record at least two points.
    - Is eliminated from top 4 contention if they are swept if either RIT takes 3 or more points or Sacred Heart sweeps.
    - Is eliminated from bye contention if they are swept, Sacred Heart sweeps, and RIT takes 3 or more points.

    Niagara (Eliminated from title contention)
    - Clinches home ice in the 1st round of the playoffs with a sweep if two of the following occur: (1)Robert Morris does not sweep or Mercyhurst takes 1 point or less, (2)Holy Cross does not sweep, (3)Army does not record at least two points.
    - Clinches home ice in the 1st round of the playoffs with 3 points if two of the following occur: (1)Robert Morris does not take 3 or more points, (2)Robert Morris takes exactly 3 points and Meryhurst is swept, (3)Holy Cross does not take 3 or more points, (4)Army is swept.
    - Clinches home ice in the 1st round of the playoffs with a split if Robert Morris does not take 2 or more points and Holy Cross does not take 2 or more points.
    - Clinches home ice in the 1st round of the playoffs with 1 point if Robert Morris and Holy Cross are both swept.
    - Eliminated from top 4 contention with a 1 point weekend or less
    - Eliminated from top 4 contention with a split if RIT is not swept, Air Force takes exactly one point, or if Sacred Heart takes two or more points.
    - Eliminated from top 4 contention with a 3 point weekend if two of the following happen: (1)RIT takes 2 points or more, (2)Sacred Heart takes 3 points or more, (3)Air Force does not take EXACTLY one point.
    - Eliminated from top 4 contention if two of the following happen: (1)RIT takes 3 points or more, (2)Sacred Heart sweeps, (3)Air Force takes 3 points or more.
    - Eliminated from bye contention if swept.
    - Eliminated from bye contention with a 1 point weekend if Sacred Heart is not swept or Mercyhurst picks up two points or more.
    - Eliminated from bye contention with a 2 point weekend if three of the following happen: (1)RIT is not swept, (2)Air Force is not swept, (3)Sacred Heart takes two points or more, or (4)Mercyhurst takes three points or more.
    - Eliminated from bye contention with a 3 point weekend if RIT takes 2 points or more, Air Force does not take exactly 1 point, and Sacred Heart takes 3 points or more.
    - Eliminated from bye contention if RIT takes 3 points or more, Air Force takes 3 points or more, and Sacred Heart sweeps.

    Army (Eliminated from title contention)
    - Clinches home ice in the 1st round in the playoffs with a sweep if Robert Morris and Holy Cross both take 1 point or less.
    - Clinches home ice in the 1st round of the playoffs with a 3 point weekend if Robert Morris and Holy Cross are both swept.
    - Eliminated from top 4 contention with split or worse.
    - Eliminated from top 4 contention with a 3 point weekend if RIT takes two points or more and Air Force does not take exactly 1 point.
    - Eliminated from top 4 contention if RIT takes 3 points or more and Air Force takes 3 points or more.
    - Eliminated from bye contention with a 1 point weekend or worse.
    - Eliminated from bye contention with a split if Air Force does not take exactly one point or if RIT is not swept.

    Robert Morris (Eliminated from title contention)
    - Eliminated from top 4 contention unless they sweep.
    - Eliminated from top 4 contention if Niagara picks up 3 points or more, Air Force picks up exactly one point, or Sacred Heart picks up 2 points or more.
    - Eliminated from bye contention with a split or worse.
    - Eliminated from bye contention with a 3 point weekend if Sacred Heart picks up one point or more, Niagara sweeps, or Mercyhurst picks up 2 points or more.
    - Eliminated from bye contention if two of the following occur: (1)Niagara picks up 3 or more points, (2)Air Force picks up exactly 1 point, (3)Sacred Heart picks up two or more points
    - Eliminated from hosting in the 1st round if they are swept, Niagara is not swept, and Army picks up 3 or more points.
    - Eliminated from hosting in the 1st round if they get 1 point, Niagara picks up 2 or more points, and Army sweeps.

    Holy Cross (Eliminated from title contention)
    - Eliminated from top 4 contention unless they sweep.
    - Eliminated from top 4 contention if (1)Niagara takes 3 points or more (2)RIT is not swept, (3)Air Force picks up exactly one point, or (4)Sacred Heart picks up 2 points or more.
    - Eliminated from bye contention with a split or worse.
    - Eliminated from bye contention with a 3 point weekend if Sacred Heart picks up 1 point or more, Niagara sweeps, or Mercyhurst picks up 2 points or more.
    -Eliminated from bye contention if two of the following occur: (1)Niagara picks up 3 or more points, (2)Air Force picks up exactly 1 point, (3)Sacred Heart picks up two or more points, (4)RIT is not swept.
    - Eliminated from hosting in the 1st round if they are swept, Niagara is not swept, and Army picks up 3 or more points.
    - Eliminated from hosting in the 1st round if they get 1 point, Niagara picks up two or more points, and Army sweeps.

    Canisius (Eliminated from bye contention)
    - Eliminated from hosting in the 1st round if they split or worse.
    - Eliminated from hosting in the 1st round with a three point weekend if Army is not swept, Robert Morris gets 3 or more points, or Holy Cross gets 3 or more points.
    - Eliminated from hosting in the 1st round if Army gets 2 points or more, Robert Morris sweeps, or Holy Cross Sweeps.
    Last edited by jflory81; 02-19-2019, 04:16 PM. Reason: AF cannot win the title.

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    • #17
      Re: Atlantic Hockey 2018 - 2019 Predictions.

      Going to be one heck of a finish to the season, top 5 has not been decided and way too many possibilities to figure it all out. I can tell you this however, once playoffs start it will be anyone's game this year, whether you finish first overall or somewhere in the pack it is anyone's crown for the taking.

      Some other years the disparity from top to bottom was greater, so you had less upsets in play-offs overall. This season it is thrilling to know on any night in any series it will be a coin toss to try and figure out the victor ahead of time. I believe things are that close, and play-off upsets should be the yardstick of seeing if that is indeed the case.

      For AHA POTY i haven't seen anyone over the recent years who has come in and dominated play the way Joseph Duszak from Mercyhurst has done. With being a Junior it really is astounding. If you have a chance watch this kid he really is something special. Now a caveat is he has a LOT of learning to do on the defensive side of the game no doubt, but raw skill and instincts is remarkable and he will learn the other aspects of the game the next level up under the right direction. For now however a real treat to watch.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Downstate_RIT_Fan View Post
        Agree with your choices listed above. AHA POTY? IMHO Joseph Duszak from ‘Hurst is having a heck of a season. Not sure if it factors in, but how Mercyhurst finishes might play into who is POTY, as well as he is still a Junior.
        Could we have two Hobey top ten candidates in Joseph Durszak at 'hurst and Blake Christensen at AIC?

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        • #19
          Re: Atlantic Hockey 2018 - 2019 Predictions.

          Can someone help me out here? The best Bentley can do next weekend is tie AIC and given that AIC won their season series, it seems to me the Yellow Jackets clinched the conference regular season title tonight. What am I missing?

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Leather Lungs View Post
            Can someone help me out here? The best Bentley can do next weekend is tie AIC and given that AIC won their season series, it seems to me the Yellow Jackets clinched the conference regular season title tonight. What am I missing?
            The race is for second, I think. AIC was for Bentley to reel in, but the Falcons only picked up one point in the past three games.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Leather Lungs View Post
              Can someone help me out here? The best Bentley can do next weekend is tie AIC and given that AIC won their season series, it seems to me the Yellow Jackets clinched the conference regular season title tonight. What am I missing?
              I don't believe AHA uses tiebreakers when determining a conference championship. Hence, AIC has clinched the #1 seed, but only a share of the conference title. If Bentley were to sweep next week and AIC were to be swept, AIC and Bentley would be co-regular season champions, I believe

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              • #22
                Originally posted by jflory81 View Post
                I don't believe AHA uses tiebreakers when determining a conference championship. Hence, AIC has clinched the #1 seed, but only a share of the conference title. If Bentley were to sweep next week and AIC were to be swept, AIC and Bentley would be co-regular season champions, I believe
                Judging by the lack of social media fireworks for AIC winning a banner (exclusive banner anyway), you must be right.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by jflory81 View Post
                  I don't believe AHA uses tiebreakers when determining a conference championship. Hence, AIC has clinched the #1 seed, but only a share of the conference title. If Bentley were to sweep next week and AIC were to be swept, AIC and Bentley would be co-regular season champions, I believe
                  A lot of conferences will crown co-champions and only use tie-breakers for seeding purposes. So, you could be correct.
                  Russell Jaslow
                  [Former] SUNYAC Correspondent
                  U.S. College Hockey Online

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                  • #24
                    Re: Atlantic Hockey 2018 - 2019 Predictions.

                    When was last time, if ever, that three eastern teams held the top three spots in the AHC?

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                    • #25
                      Re: Atlantic Hockey 2018 - 2019 Predictions.

                      What we know:
                      AIC is the #1 seed
                      Bentley is the #2 seed
                      Canisius is the #11 seed

                      Sacred Heart, Air Force, and RIT have byes
                      Niagara and Mercyhurst will host first round games
                      2006-07 Atlantic Hockey Champions!
                      2008-09 Atlantic Hockey Co-Champions!
                      2009-10 Atlantic Hockey Champions!
                      2010 Frozen Four participant
                      2010-11 Atlantic Hockey Champions!

                      Member of the infamous Corner Crew

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