Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

[trixR4kids]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Regardless of PP production I think an argument that they're the best line in the nation is warranted based on everything I've seen.

It's possible, IDK enough about other teams to say definitively that they aren't. They're certainly not the problem on that team, the lack of depth is the issue.

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

It's possible, IDK enough about other teams to say definitively that they aren't. They're certainly not the problem on that team, the lack of depth is the issue.

Yeah I think you nailed it there Trix. The only line that comes close is the Penn St. line of Limoges/Barrett/Folkes which has a total of 83 pts. in 22 games (3 pts. > KHL), but their supporting cast is far more talented than Sparty. Therefore, a near zero R value of the correlational coefficient between the two teams. What the KHL line has done with much less depth in the lineup is extremely impressive, which is why IMO they're the best line in college hockey.

[D2D]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Since Sparty has a such a potent top line, with relatively little depth on the others, and since as the home team they'll have last change, which Gopher line do you think Cole will target to match up with his No. 1? And which of his lines will Motzko try to get out there against that top Sparty line, whenever possible? That'll be interesting...

[trixR4kids]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Well they get the last change so presumably they'll match power vs power and put KHL vs GPS. If it were at home who knows, Motzko might put Novak's line out there vs them I'm not really sure.

[D2D]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Well they get the last change so presumably they'll match power vs power and put KHL vs GPS. If it were at home who knows, Motzko might put Novak's line out there vs them I'm not really sure.

Yeah I'm thinking the same unless Cole believes his top line would have a field day against another of the Gopher's lines. We'll see tomorrow.

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Since Sparty has a such a potent top line, with relatively little depth on the others, and since as the home team they'll have last change, which Gopher line do you think Cole will target to match up with his No. 1? And which of his lines will Motzko try to get out there against that top Sparty line, whenever possible? That'll be interesting...

There will be a coaching duel for sure. Cole may opt for a head-to-head matchup with Gopher GPS vs. Sparty KHL. The Gopher GPS is the highest scoring line, but they also have the lowest +/- of any of the lines (-7 total). So I could see Cole taking a gamble and testing that stat out with the strong transition game of the KHL line. And that would be just fine with me...I wanna see that battle anyway. Bottom line, the GPS line has got to be a better two-way line if they want a shot at a sweep.

I hope Motzko goes with a hard forecheck (2-1-2) as they did in the Penn St. win. That was really effective against the Limoges/Barrett/Folkes top line.

GPS vs. KHL

Gates Jr. 8/8/16 vs. Khodorenko 13/11/24
Pitlick 10/12/22 vs. Hirose 11/24/35
Sheehy 6/12/18 vs. Lewandowski 7/14/21

Cool Article: Ranking the ultimate lineups in NCAA men's hockey history (According to their NHL careers)

[Bonin21]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

That article is frustrating as a Gopher fan. No one wants to be number 5.

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

That article is frustrating as a Gopher fan. No one wants to be number 5.

Gopher goalies haven't done much in the NHL and that's where we lost points in the ranking. Rob Stauber might be the most recent example and his career NHL stats are not impressive: 21-23-9 W-L-T, 3.81 GAA, .890 save percentage, and one shutout in 62 games.

[trixR4kids]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

I think the funniest part of that article is seeing guys in those lineups who objectively suck in the NHL like Jack Johnson. Kinda shows how far and few between the NHL superstars/above average NHL players who go the college route are (or I’d argue in some cases the article writer is omitting better players, I feel like the U has had better D in the NHL than EJ for example).

I hope Motzko goes with a hard forecheck (2-1-2) as they did in the Penn St. win. That was really effective against the Limoges/Barrett/Folkes top line.

I hope so too, this was one of my biggest peeves towards the end of the Lucia era.

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Jim Dahl has published his 2019 (as of Jan. 17) probability curves of how likely that team is to end the regular season with each PWR ranking with a given number of wins in its remaining scheduled games.

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

Gopher's need at least 10 Ws to get to #13 (18.5% chance) -#14 (24% chance represented by the highest data point on the 10 Ws curve) by the end of the season.



EDIT:

I forgot to mention, the only flaw in Jim Dahl's regression analysis is the inherent sampling error because he did not include "ties" as an IV. That essentially means that the predicted values above could be different than the observed values (what really happened). I suspect he eliminated that as a trade off for greater simplicity in the graphic.

[Slap Shot]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Right, but since this is a road series I was thinking of the Gophers at Munn.

3-1 at Munn the last 4 played.

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Gameday (for real)!

3-1 at Munn the last 4 played.

All three of those Ws (all 4-2. ENG in each) were close one goal games down to the waning minutes of the third. That includes the Gopher sweep in 2016-17 against a Sparty team that only won 3/20 B1G games vs one of the more prolific scoring Gopher teams with nearly three players with 20 goal seasons and Sheehy as B1G Player of the Year and a Hobey Baker Finalist finishing the season with a career high 53 pts.

That Captain Kloos led team has very little correlation with this year's team in every category, especially SOGs and Gs. This year's SOG and Goals per game are the lowest ever over the last 20 years. Yet despite winning only 3 B1G games all season in 2016-17 and finishing dead last in the B1G, Sparty gave the Gophers quite a fight on their home ice.

All that illustrates my original point that MSU typically plays the Gophers hard at Munn. I don't think this weekend will be any exception.

Given MSU is coming off a big win against Penn St. on Sat., they'll be especially energized out of the gate today to make it two in row. They've got arguably the top line in the country and they'll attack the net hard all weekend. Both teams are @ 21% on the PP, setting the stage for an intense battle of special teams as well. Should be some very entertaining college hockey!

I'm hoping for a sweep and if the Gophers are firing on all cylinders and Robson is Robson, it's entirely possible. Second and third lines for the Gophers will need to step up and find the back of the net.

Given MSU is sitting at 30th in the PWR and has already lost the comparison with MN, IMO the PWC spike in the event of a split or a W/T won't statistically be that much different than a sweep (possibly only one PWC). Go Gophers!

[captain beefheart]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Are there REALLY no more televised games until 2/22?
Asking for a friend.

[MadCityRich]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Im sitting here all day with a horrible cold, or something, watching Hockey Day in MN. This is what hockey is all about. I've watched before, but not all day.

A couple pints of thinner, lemon and honey and I'm really enjoying this. Well done again.

[Bonin21]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Yeah I think you nailed it there Trix. The only line that comes close is the Penn St. line of Limoges/Barrett/Folkes which has a total of 83 pts. in 22 games (3 pts. > KHL), but their supporting cast is far more talented than Sparty. Therefore, a near zero R value of the correlational coefficient between the two teams. What the KHL line has done with much less depth in the lineup is extremely impressive, which is why IMO they're the best line in college hockey.

Answer is clear now IMO. Best line in the land.