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Thread: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

  1. #141
    Let's Go 'Tute! Ralph Baer's Avatar
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    Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

    Courtesy of Jim Hyla over at eLynah, the women's non-travel partner ECAC schedule for next season is attached to his post.
    https://elf.elynah.com/read.php?1,21...e=1#msg-219006

    11/1 SLU
    11/2 Clarkson
    11/8 @ Brown
    11/9/ @ Yale
    11/15 Quinnipiac
    11/16 Princeton
    12/6 @Clarkson
    12/7 @SLU
    1/3 @ Dartmouth
    1/4 @Harvard
    1/10 Colgate
    1/11 Cornell
    1/17 Yale
    1/18 Brown
    2/7 @Princeton
    2/8 @Quinnipiac
    2/14 Harvard
    2/15 Dartmouth
    2/21 @Cornell
    2/22 @Colgate

    Edit: Change https to http.
    Last edited by Ralph Baer; 01-31-2019 at 06:12 AM.

  2. #142
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    Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

    Tomorrow's a big test for the women. We're in 5th, Colgate's in 4th. It could say a lot towards who gets that last home slot (although SLU is by no means out of the hunt).
    It was an honor to present your colors, RPI. Let's Go 'TUTE!
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  3. #143
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    Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Baer View Post
    A surprisingly high 29 saves in a 2-1 win over Union in the Mayor's Cup means that Selander needs 118 in 8 games, 14.75 per game.
    30 saves for LS in a 4-1 loss to Colgate. She needs 88 in 7 games, 12.57 per game.
    Last edited by Ralph Baer; 02-04-2019 at 05:21 PM.

  4. #144
    Fan of chipmunk-like mascots. ARM's Avatar
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    Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Baer View Post
    30 saves for LS in a 4-1 lost to Colgate. She needs 88 in 7 games, 12.57 per game.
    I'm starting to think you're ONLY here for the math.
    "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
    And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

  5. #145
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    Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

    Quote Originally Posted by ARM View Post
    I'm starting to think you're ONLY here for the math.
    There's not a whole lot for us to look forward to other than Selander making absurd numbers of saves. Also, math is fun.
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  6. #146
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    Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

    Quote Originally Posted by lugnut92 View Post
    Also, math is fun.
    No one ever believes me, either.

  7. #147
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    Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

    Quote Originally Posted by ARM View Post
    I'm starting to think you're ONLY here for the math.
    Of course. Leswp1 never shows up here since UML doesn't have a women's team.

  8. #148
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    Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Baer View Post
    30 saves for LS in a 4-1 lost to Colgate. She needs 88 in 7 games, 12.57 per game.
    48 saves for LS in a 5-0 loss at Cornell. She needs 40 in 6 games, 6.67 per game. The questions are will it be on Friday or Saturday, and will she then get to 4K.


  9. #149
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Baer View Post
    48 saves for LS in a 5-0 loss at Cornell. She needs 40 in 6 games, 6.67 per game. The questions are will it be on Friday or Saturday, and will she then get to 4K.

    She’s an excellent goalie who seemingly has little help. RPI’s offense was nonexistent.

  10. #150
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    Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Scoop85 View Post
    She’s an excellent goalie who seemingly has little help. RPI’s offense was nonexistent.
    That's the story of our season. We've been out-shot 207 to 68 over our last 5 games (outscored 11-5 in that time). It's insane.
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    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

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  11. #151
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    Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

    Well, getting swept pretty much ended our hopes of getting up to 4th or higher, but that's life. Our playoff odds ended up not moving at all, so all that changed is that we need the points this weekend a little more than we did before. Given that this is a home weekend, I think anything less than 3 points would be a disappointment. Also we should consider scoring goals and allowing fewer than 40 shots against.

    RPI KRACH (RRWP): 62.49 (0.4066)

    MCTs (Mean/Median/Mode/Range):
    Points - 21.77 / 22 / 21 / 17 - 29
    Rank - 6.40 / 6 / 6 / 4 - 10
    Playoffs - 98.7% (Home - 0.2%)
    Most likely opponent - at Clarkson (28.0%)

    Conference Rankings:
    1. Princeton
    2. Cornell
    3. Clarkson
    4. Colgate
      —————
    5. SLU
    6. RPI
    7. Harvard
    8. Quinnipiac
      —————
      —————
    9. Yale
    10. Dartmouth
    11. Brown
    12. Union


    This Weekend's Playoff Implications:
    Code:
           |      Da      |
    _______|  W |  T |  L |
    |  | W |100%|>99%|>99%|
    |Ha| T |>99%| 99%| 97%|
    |  | L | 99%| 97%| 92%|
    Note: Again, I don't think hitting 21 points would guarantee a playoff spot, but the simulation did not encounter any instance of us sweeping this weekend and missing the playoffs.

    RPI Points vs. Position:
    Code:
       |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------    
    17 |                                       0.0   0.9   0.4   0.0            
    18 |                                 0.0   0.3   1.9   0.4                  
    19 |                           0.0   0.2   3.5   5.9   0.4                  
    20 |                           0.0   1.4   6.5   3.6   0.1                  
    21 |                           0.4   8.2  11.0   1.8   0.0                  
    22 |                           1.6  10.1   4.8   0.2                        
    23 |                           5.4  11.0   1.3   0.0                        
    24 |                     0.0   4.5   4.5   0.1                              
    25 |                     0.0   4.7   1.7   0.0                              
    26 |                     0.0   1.7   0.3                                    
    27 |                     0.1   0.8   0.0                                    
    28 |                     0.0   0.1   0.0                                    
    29 |                     0.0   0.0
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place


  12. #152
    Let's Go 'Tute! Ralph Baer's Avatar
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    Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

    We need to get some points this weekend as the last two weekends will be more difficult.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Baer View Post
    We need to get some points this weekend as the last two weekends will be more difficult.
    Up all night thinking about it! Now that is dedication.

  14. #154
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    Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Reddington View Post
    Up all night thinking about it! Now that is dedication.
    No, I had awakened, and I read lugnut's most recent post which made me look at the schedule.

  15. #155
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    Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019


  16. #156
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    Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

    I hadn't realized that Lovisa will still trail the number set by Lindenwood's Nicole Hensley, who had 4,094 saves, but her first season was only provisionally in D-I. It's very unlikely that she would be able to reach that mark unless we win in the first round. She is currently averaging 34 saves per game, meaning she would need 9-10 more games at that clip to eclipse 4,094.

    If she gets 40 more, she will have the D-I record as understood right now, but I wouldn't be shocked if at some point in the future Hensley's achievement is given precedence.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place


  17. #157
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    Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Baer View Post
    We need to get some points this weekend as the last two weekends will be more difficult.
    Yes. I am not at all comfortable with Lugnut's calculation that we have a 98.7% probability of making the playoffs. For Yale (currently 9th) to overtake RPI they would need to gain 5 points in 6 remaining games (4 points would tie with RPI but the Engineers would win the tie-breaker). Yale and RPI play exactly the same 6 teams over the next 3 weekends and both have 4 home games. I have trouble seeing either team beating Cornell, Colgate or Princeton, but games against Dartmouth, Quinnipiac and Harvard are winnable for either team, so this weekend against Dartmouth and Harvard is big.

  18. #158
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    Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

    Quote Originally Posted by hab View Post
    Yes. I am not at all comfortable with Lugnut's calculation that we have a 98.7% probability of making the playoffs. For Yale (currently 9th) to overtake RPI they would need to gain 5 points in 6 remaining games (4 points would tie with RPI but the Engineers would win the tie-breaker). Yale and RPI play exactly the same 6 teams over the next 3 weekends and both have 4 home games. I have trouble seeing either team beating Cornell, Colgate or Princeton, but games against Dartmouth, Quinnipiac and Harvard are winnable for either team, so this weekend against Dartmouth and Harvard is big.
    From the most surface level, we are favored over Dartmouth and Quinnipiac, while Yale is only favored over Dartmouth (despite this, both teams are expected to earn 4 more points). The scary thing in all of this is that if Lovisa at any point stops being a brick wall, we're basically toast. Games against those three teams were actually not too lopsided in shots (78-94 against), but we only scored three goals across them.

    I have felt for a while that KRACH is not a great tool for evaluating us this season. We are regularly skated out of the rink and only kept alive by Selander, but KRACH only sees the W at the end of the line. That said, Lovisa is a part of the team and the .943 SV% she has this season is not too far out of her career average so there's no reason to expect it to stop.

    I'll feel much better with 4 points and at least that many goals scored this weekend.
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    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place


  19. #159
    Fan of chipmunk-like mascots. ARM's Avatar
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    Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

    Quote Originally Posted by lugnut92 View Post
    I have felt for a while that KRACH is not a great tool for evaluating us this season.
    Another possible tool for evaluating you, where your offense ranks 35th out of 35, but your D is 22nd and you're 30th overall:
    https://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/wchodr/current.html

    This math is likely shortchanging the Engineers as well, but you can see the predictions for this weekend here:
    https://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/wchodr/next.html
    "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
    And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

  20. #160
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    Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

    Quote Originally Posted by ARM View Post
    Another possible tool for evaluating you, where your offense ranks 35th out of 35, but your D is 22nd and you're 30th overall:
    https://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/wchodr/current.html

    This math is likely shortchanging the Engineers as well, but you can see the predictions for this weekend here:
    https://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/wchodr/next.html
    Oof. The defensive rating in CHODR does inherently account for goaltending, so I guess it would be better. My one quibble is that I'm not sure that it's true that goal scoring is best modeled by a Poisson distribution, or rather I don't know how well you can apply the same factors for the distribution to every team. That said, as much as I post about them on here, math and statistics aren't actually my areas of expertise, so I don't know how much I can critique CHODR after 15 minutes of thought. My anecdote-biased brain seems to say that scoring rates are dependent on score state more than a Poisson distribution would allow for. That we have an .833 win percentage when we score first (as opposed to 0.076 when trailing first) would suggest that there is something not-truly-random to scoring rates in our games.

    As a note: KRACH has us at 24th overall, which does seem high to me.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place


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