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Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

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  • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

    Originally posted by osualum86 View Post
    Some have mentioned Ohio State being in 4th in the PairWise and I would love to not have to travel for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. What Ohio State needs to do to stay there is get another win or two vs Wisconsin or Minnesota, and do not lose to teams we are supposed to beat. !
    I recall from last year, you guys weren't all that sure about the workings of the Pairwise, so I took a look at what might be coming for you.

    Remember, there are three components to each Pairwise comparison: head-to-head, won-loss record against common opponents, and RPI. And in all instances, RPI is the tie-breaker.

    For comparing against non-conference teams that you don't have any head-to-head against, the Pairwise comparison is won by RPI all by itself (because even if you lose 'common opponents', if you win RPI, you still win the comparison, because RPI is the tie-breaker). So, because there is no head-to-head, OSU's comparisons against the teams immediately behind it - Princeton, Clarkson, Cornell, Providence, BU, BC - all revert to a comparison of RPI. And the one team where there is head-to-head - Colgate - the games were one win apiece. Meaning no advantage one way or another as far as Pairwise goes. As far as I can see, for non-conference teams, if OSU's RPI remains better, you win the Pairwise comparison; if it falls behind them, you lose the comparison. Simple as that. As far as I can see, you can forget the rest of the details of Pairwise, and just look at RPI.

    That said, RPIs for 4 through 11 are really pretty close, and there are plenty of games to be played. The gap between #3 and #4 is about the same as the gap between #4 and #10.

    (And in all of the above, when I mention RPI, I'm talking about 'quality win bonus, adjusted RPI'. AKA the numbers you see in the Pairwise table.)

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    • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

      Robertearle, thank you for the PairWise explanation, and yeah, I don't know about everyone else, but I am definitely not all that sure about the workings of the PairWise. Before last season, us OSU Women's Hockey fans didn't have a reason to pay attention to the PairWise, so we are definitely new to this! I do look at it every weekend, but I am not familiar with all the inner workings of the PairWise.

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      • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

        Don’t get into analysis paralysis and simply shoot for a spot in the top 8. In the end it’s a one game showdown and it’s any team’s game to win. Think back to last year and if you picked the winner based on rankings, OSU does not make the trip to Minneapolis. We know that story and lord knows how close you came to being in the final. Enjoy the ride.
        Last edited by Puckdrop14; 01-15-2019, 04:54 PM.

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        • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

          Originally posted by Puckdrop14 View Post
          Don’t get into analysis paralysis and simply shoot for a spot in the top 8. In the end it’s a one game showdown and it’s any team’s game to win. Think back to last year and if you picked the winner based on rankings, OSU does not make the trip to Minneapolis. We know that story and lord knows how close you came to being in the final. Enjoy the ride.
          Well, I can partially agree.

          Strongly agree with enjoy the ride.

          Avoid dwelling on the numbers is also good advice. Sincere thanks to posters like robertearle & Still Eyeore (and of course multiple others) for decoding the Pairwise for the rest of us. That allows the lay person to get the necessary information with reasonable efficiency. And thus avoid the "paralysis."

          Last but not least: Of course upsets happen & it's necessary to play the games. That's one reason the whole enterprise is worthwhile.

          However... I will to continue to root for a spot in the Top 4. It would be amazing to have an NCAA Home Game here in Columbus. With respect to last year's Quarterfinal: It was quite possibly the greatest game in program history. But most of us couldn't make the trip to Boston on short notice, so we watched on laptop computers. Or missed it altogether. Of course getting a bid in the 5-8 range is something to celebrate -- and never to be taken for granted. But at least from a fan perspective, a home game is the larger prize.

          Then there's elephant in the room. Until we get a rule forbidding intra-conference match-ups in the first round, they will continue to be a nagging problem. The most effective defense is for all WCHA qualifiers to finish in the Top 4.

          Now, with all that in the record, I'm returning my focus to the upcoming series with UMD!

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          • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

            Originally posted by pgb-ohio View Post
            Then there's elephant in the room. Until we get a rule forbidding intra-conference match-ups in the first round, they will continue to be a nagging problem. The most effective defense is for all WCHA qualifiers to finish in the Top 4.
            If OSU gets the #4 seed, the only way they'd get another WCHA team in the first round of the NCAAs is if a WCHA team finished in the #5-through-8 spot (and then only 'maybe'). And unless Duluth has a really good second half, or Minnesota or Wisconsin has a really bad second half, that ain't gonna happen.

            (Getting WAY out ahead of ourselves, maybe the CHA winner, if it is Robert Morris or Mercyhurst - driving distance to Columbus.)
            Last edited by robertearle; 01-15-2019, 08:32 PM.

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            • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

              Originally posted by robertearle View Post
              If OSU gets the #4 seed, the only way they'd get another WCHA team in the first round of the NCAAs is if a WCHA team finished in the #5-through-8 spot (and then only 'maybe'). And unless Duluth has a really good second half, or Minnesota or Wisconsin has a really bad second half, that ain't gonna happen.

              (Getting WAY out ahead of ourselves, maybe the CHA winner, if it is Robert Morris or Mercyhurst - driving distance to Columbus.)
              This is very much what I was driving at.

              At the same time, maybe the point that we can all agree on is to enjoy each weekend's games as they come, and not get too far ahead of ourselves.

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              • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

                I thought it was a little comical that your goalie was wWCHA goalie of the week after getting lit up Saturday.
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                • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

                  Don't have the box score in front of me but the disturbing trend of Ohio State losing road openers continued tonight as they were beaten by UMD 5-2. Not sure what else to say about this one. Love this team, but despite all their talent, they're now 1-5 in road openers, and only one of those road openers was actually against a ranked team (Minnesota).

                  Ohiostatebuckeyes.com has a recap so I can tell you the UMD goals were scored by Naomi Rogge (2), Sydney Brodt, Anna Klein, and Gabbie Hughes scored the empty netter for the Bulldogs at the end to make the final score 5-2. For the Bucks, Gabby Rosenthal scored her first goal as a Buckeye and tied the game at 1-1 at the time. Maddy Field scored a goal for the Bucks in the third period that brought the score to 4-2, but that was as close as the Buckeyes would get.

                  Ohio State won the shots on goal battle 41-33, but Bulldog netminder Maddie Rooney stopped 39 of those 41 shots. Buckeye goaltender Andrea Braendli started the game and stopped 11 of the 15 shots she faced. Lynsey Wallace came in for the final two periods and stopped all 17 shots she faced to give the Buckeyes a chance, but they could not get enough shots by Maddie Rooney.

                  Turns out, this loss was a costly one in the PairWise. The Buckeyes dropped from 4th to 6th in the PairWise, so they played their way out of a home game in the NCAA Quarterfinal tonight. Hopefully, the character of this team takes over and they win tomorrow to salvage a split. There is plenty of season left to get back into the top four of the PairWise and host a quarterfinal.
                  Last edited by osualum86; 01-18-2019, 11:28 PM.

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                  • Originally posted by osualum86 View Post
                    Don't have the box score in front of me but the disturbing trend of Ohio State losing road openers continued tonight as they were beaten by UMD 5-2. Not sure what else to say about this one. Love this team, but despite all their talent, they're now 1-5 in road openers, and only one of those road openers was actually against a ranked team (Minnesota).

                    Ohiostatebuckeyes.com has a recap so I can tell you the UMD goals were scored by Naomi Rogge (2), Sydney Brodt, Anna Klein, and Gabbie Hughes scored the empty netter for the Bulldogs at the end to make the final score 5-2. For the Bucks, Gabby Rosenthal scored her first goal as a Buckeye and tied the game at 1-1 at the time. Maddy Field scored a goal for the Bucks in the third period that brought the score to 4-2, but that was as close as the Buckeyes would get.

                    Ohio State won the shots on goal battle 41-33, but Bulldog netminder Maddie Rooney stopped 39 of those 41 shots. Buckeye goaltender Andrea Braendli started the game and stopped 11 of the 15 shots she faced. Lynsey Wallace came in for the final two periods and stopped all 17 shots she faced to give the Buckeyes a chance, but they could not get enough shots by Maddie Rooney.

                    Turns out, this loss was a costly one in the PairWise. The Buckeyes dropped from 4th to 6th in the PairWise, so they played their way out of a home game in the NCAA Quarterfinal tonight. Hopefully, the character of this team takes over and they win tomorrow to salvage a split. There is plenty of season left to get back into the top four of the PairWise and host a quarterfinal.
                    Do you know why Dunne did not play? Difficult to replace her ~48 minutes a game.

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                    • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

                      Not sure why Jincy did not play, and even if I knew, I am not going to help other teams out by getting on here and talking about injuries. Actually, it doesn't sound like the other team needed any help this weekend anyway.

                      Minnesota-Duluth completed the sweep today by a final score of 6-3. Ohio State continues to not be able to get it done on the road. Luckily, they did not drop any further in the PairWise, but as Coach Muzerall alluded to in the postgame interview, the players need to take ownership of this and correct it. I have lost count of how many times she has said in weekly interviews leading up to road trips, "We have to play a 60-minute game" ... "We need to stay out of the penalty box" ... "We need to come out ready to play" ... "We need to develop consistency" ... etc.. I am not going to say much more on this. Watch Coach Muzerall's postgame interview on ohiostatebuckeyes.com. The only other thing I am going to say is I am really, really looking forward to that day when we are at that level Minnesota and Wisconsin are at where we are not habitually losing to teams we are supposed to beat. This team has lost nine games now, and six of those nine losses have been to unranked, sub-.500 teams that we had no business losing to. Puckdrop is going to scold me for the analysis paralysis, but I would hate to see this team play their way into a road trip to Minneapolis or Madison in the NCAA Quarterfinal.

                      Well, enough "analysis paralysis." UMD came out ready to play today and got two quick goals within a minute and a half of each other to go up 2-0. The Bulldog goals were scored by Naomi Rogge and Sydney Brodt. The Buckeyes got a power play goal toward the end of the period by Sophie Jaques to cut the deficit to 2-1 at the end of the first period. Each team got a goal in the second period. Anna Klein scored for Minnesota-Duluth and Paetyn Levis scored for Ohio State. That was how the second period ended and the teams went to their respective locker rooms with the score 3-2 in favor of the Bulldogs. UMD scored first in the third period and went up 4-2 on a goal by Gabbie Hughes. The Buckeyes came back with a Tatum Skaggs goal to make it 4-3, but that was as close as OSU would get. UMD would later get an empty-netter from Naomi Rogge to go up 5-3, then ended the game with a Sydney Brodt power play goal at the 19:56 mark to make the final score 6-3.

                      The Buckeyes outshot the Bulldogs 39-36. Buckeye netminder Lynsey Wallace stopped 30 of the 35 shots she faced. UMD's gold-medal-winning goaltender Maddie Rooney stopped 36 of the 39 shots she faced.

                      With the losses this weekend, the third place spot in the WCHA is now up for grabs as the Buckeyes are now only two points ahead of UMD. Ohio State returns home next weekend where, thankfully, they are a completely different team than they are on the road. The Buckeyes will face Minnesota. UMD will host Quinnipiac in a non-league series.

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                      • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

                        A few thoughts from Duluth this weekend:

                        1) UMD is a very talented team. Ohio State was not at their best, and as others have pointed out, Jincy Dunne was nowhere to be seen, but it wasn't a case of the Buckeyes taking the weekend off. The Bulldogs played some really good hockey, getting timely scoring and converting power play chances with regularity. Rogge and Brodt were particularly impressive. On top of it all, Rooney played up to her full capability, making a number of ridiculous saves that do not belie her international pedigree. Duluth's win-loss record is not very good, but when you look at their strength of schedule, it's pretty clear they can skate with the best teams in the country.

                        2) The OSU forward lines did not seem to have any chemistry this weekend. There were a number of times that someone would make a backdoor feed or get a rebound chance and nobody was home. Even when the Buckeyes seemed to finally have the momentum (and there were definitely times the Bulldogs were on their heels), they struggled to cash in on their chances, unlike UMD who seemed to score on all of their A grade chances. The OSU lineup was different on Friday and Saturday, and I think the lines were getting shuffled quite a bit during the game. It didn't appear anybody was hurt, but the top 2 lines were definitely looking tired toward the end of the 2nd game. It'll be interesting to see if they are more in sync next weekend when the Gophers fly out to Columbus.

                        3) I have to wonder if the coaches are struggling to get through to the team. The things Muzerall emphasizes in her interviews seem to be the exact things the team struggles with. For example, she talks about the importance of staying out of the box, and then the team goes out on Friday and takes 3 penalties in the 1st period, giving up 2 power play goals. At the end of the day, the players have to go out and execute in the games, but it seems like however the coaching staff is communicating with the girls, they are not responding the way one would hope.

                        It was definitely not the results that Buckeye fans were hoping for this weekend, but the good news for Ohio State is that all of their goals are still in front of them. Strong showings against Minnesota and Wisconsin will go a long ways in the PairWise, and the conference tournament is always an opportunity to improves one's national standing.
                        2005 Piston Cup Champion

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                        • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

                          4) I also believe your team is not as effective on larger ice surfaces. You seem to have a distinct advantage when you play at home on your smaller pad with your in your face style of play.

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                          • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

                            Originally posted by ChickHicks86 View Post
                            3) I have to wonder if the coaches are struggling to get through to the team. The things Muzerall emphasizes in her interviews seem to be the exact things the team struggles with. For example, she talks about the importance of staying out of the box, and then the team goes out on Friday and takes 3 penalties in the 1st period, giving up 2 power play goals. At the end of the day, the players have to go out and execute in the games, but it seems like however the coaching staff is communicating with the girls, they are not responding the way one would hope.

                            It was definitely not the results that Buckeye fans were hoping for this weekend, but the good news for Ohio State is that all of their goals are still in front of them. Strong showings against Minnesota and Wisconsin will go a long ways in the PairWise, and the conference tournament is always an opportunity to improves one's national standing.
                            I think Coach Muzerall and her staff are doing a great job with this program, and getting to the Frozen Four in her second season at the helm was way beyond my expectations last season. I am still trusting the process here, obviously, as we are still in the hunt for those goals you mentioned. However, I think you bring up an excellent point about the coaching staff's messages not getting through because this team, despite being nearly unbeatable at home (10-2), is only 5-7 on the road, and five of those seven losses were to unranked teams. Whatever is being done with the road trips, it's not working, and it is starting to become the definition of insanity ... doing the same things over and over again, but expecting different results. Another thing I have been wondering about, and coach talks about the players taking ownership of this, is if there has been a players-only meeting yet. Last year it was well known that after an inexcusable 5-1 home loss to Penn State, there was a players-only meeting, and the team started rolling after that. I have not heard of any such meeting this season, but that doesn't mean it hasn't happened. I agree with you, though, that the coaches can talk until they are blue in the face, but the players have to go out and execute, and on the road, this team does not execute what the coaches are communicating to them.

                            I had one friend, and I mentioned it in an earlier post, who told me we were not as good as last year's team, and that I needed to temper my expectations. I am not ready to temper my expectations yet, and I am sure the team has not changed their goals. As you said, all of their goals are still in front of them, and they are still setting in 6th place in the PairWise. If they can figure things out and start playing like we all know they can, they can move back into the top four in the PairWise and get a home game in the NCAA Quarterfinal.

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                            • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

                              Originally posted by Puckdrop14 View Post
                              4) I also believe your team is not as effective on larger ice surfaces. You seem to have a distinct advantage when you play at home on your smaller pad with your in your face style of play.
                              OSU Ice Rink's dimensions are 200' x 85', and has been since it was renovated in the late 90's, so not sure what you mean by "smaller pad." You're right about us having a distinct advantage at home, but it has nothing to do with the size of the ice surface as it's the same size as everyone else's.

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                              • Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

                                Or everyone else’s are wrong. Maybe it’s the smaller building but the ice surface sure looks smaller.
                                Last edited by Puckdrop14; 01-20-2019, 06:14 PM.

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