Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

[D2D]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

...I really hope next season they realize that the games against the unranked, sub-.500 teams are as important as the ones against Minnesota and Wisconsin.

That is so true. And yet it's so natural, no matter how strongly he coaches may emphasize to the contrary, for players to look past those unranked, sub-.500 teams. You see this at all levels, male and female.

As the saying goes, “Hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard.” I think this is especially true in hockey, where a bounce here and a bounce there can spell the difference between a win and a loss.

[osualum86]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

That is so true. And yet it's so natural, no matter how strongly he coaches may emphasize to the contrary, for players to look past those unranked, sub-.500 teams. You see this at all levels, male and female.

As the saying goes, “Hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard.” I think this is especially true in hockey, where a bounce here and a bounce there can spell the difference between a win and a loss.

Yep. My Buckeyes found this out the hard way this season and now they are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives because of it. I did the math ... if this team would have beaten the teams they should have beaten this season, instead of 18-12-2, they would be 25-5-2 and would probably be setting in the top four in the PairWise challenging to actually get a home game in the NCAA Tournament. Last March when this team was setting in the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport waiting for the NCAA Tournament Selection Show to come on and wondering whether they were in or not, Coach Nadine had a wonderfully inspirational message for her team to remember what this felt like and moving forward, to control their own destiny. Unfortunately, for whatever reason, that message just did not get through this season. This team is way better than their record. They proved that a number of times this season, but like I said in my last post, they need to come out and play every game like they did last weekend in Madison.

You said something in your first paragraph that is probably true for a lot of teams (looking past the unranked, sub-.500 teams), but as I look around at our league, it is not true for Minnesota or Wisconsin. I don't see Minnesota or Wisconsin losing to unranked, sub-.500 teams. It simply doesn't happen with those two, and that is why there is such a wide margin between those two and the rest of the WCHA. I hope Coach Nadine is able to get our program to that level someday where we don't lose to sub-.500 teams. I know that doesn't happen overnight, and clearly, Nadine has this program headed in the right direction, so I will continue to trust the process. Gonna be an interesting couple of weeks for sure. We need to take care of business this weekend vs the Mavericks.

[Still Eeyore]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

Yep. My Buckeyes found this out the hard way this season and now they are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives because of it. I did the math ... if this team would have beaten the teams they should have beaten this season, instead of 18-12-2, they would be 25-5-2 and would probably be setting in the top four in the PairWise challenging to actually get a home game in the NCAA Tournament.

Engaging in this exercise without also acknowledging the wins (and ties) you shouldn't have gotten against better teams is woefully misleading. If you assume that a team should always win against one lower in the standings, OSU's hypothetical record is 24-8 (leaving Colgate as a split). That would put you in a better spot for an at large berth, but not a sure thing.

Last March when this team was setting in the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport waiting for the NCAA Tournament Selection Show to come on and wondering whether they were in or not, Coach Nadine had a wonderfully inspirational message for her team to remember what this felt like and moving forward, to control their own destiny. Unfortunately, for whatever reason, that message just did not get through this season. This team is way better than their record. They proved that a number of times this season, but like I said in my last post, they need to come out and play every game like they did last weekend in Madison.

This is a fallacy that sports fans often engage in: taking a team's best performances and assuming that this is their true level of ability, and that anything less is an underachievement. It's not true. Teams are going to have days when they overperform as well as underperform. A team's true ability is best expressed as akin to a probability distribution rather than to a point estimate. Trying to determine if they over or underachieved relative to that hypothetical distribution is both complex and, to a certain extent, impossible. It's why the saying, "You are what your record says you are," has a lot of truth in it.

It is certainly true that OSU's performance this year had a lot of variance in it, but I'm not sure it had more than, say, UMD's did. This is another problem with the hypothetical record you construct above, as it ignores the possibility that Duluth seriously underplayed its expected ability in the series you swept. There are too many moving parts here to make sweeping statements.

You said something in your first paragraph that is probably true for a lot of teams (looking past the unranked, sub-.500 teams), but as I look around at our league, it is not true for Minnesota or Wisconsin. I don't see Minnesota or Wisconsin losing to unranked, sub-.500 teams. It simply doesn't happen with those two . . .

Minnesota lost a game to UMD, and Wisconsin lost once to Bemidji. It happens less often than it does for other teams in the WCHA, but it does happen. My guess is that it has at least as much to do with the overall talent level of the teams than it does with coaching advice that is or isn't listened to.

It's also worth noting that Minnesota, at least, was very fortunate to escape with wins on a couple of occasions during the season.

[ARM]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

It's also worth noting that Minnesota, at least, was very fortunate to escape with wins on a couple of occasions during the season.

Theoretically, Minnesota would have lost at SCSU on 11/17 and Yale on 12/1 had its fourth line not been +1 and +2 in those games respectively. I think that's one of the advantages of being a deep team: it's unlikely that all 18 skaters are going to have an off game at the same time. Teams like UMD and Ohio State rely on a comparatively smaller core group to be their difference makers in any game. For an example, look at the number of people each team has who have scored some arbitrary number of goals, like 10 or 8. As much as we fans like to say, "the team had a bad game", it usually is individuals playing below their usual level, not the whole team.

[dd17]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

Theoretically, Minnesota would have lost at SCSU on 11/17 and Yale on 12/1 had its fourth line not been +1 and +2 in those games respectively. I think that's one of the advantages of being a deep team: it's unlikely that all 18 skaters are going to have an off game at the same time. Teams like UMD and Ohio State rely on a comparatively smaller core group to be their difference makers in any game. For an example, look at the number of people each team has who have scored some arbitrary number of goals, like 10 or 8. As much as we fans like to say, "the team had a bad game", it usually is individuals playing below their usual level, not the whole team.

Agree. Exactly how you separate a good and bad coach. Everyone has a bad day now and again. The good coaches wont ride someone having a bad day to death on the ice. They will play those having good days more. Which will give you more players in that 8 to 10 mark.

OSU is easy to read stats wise. In WCHA play only a handful of players are on the plus side and only 4 forwards have more than 10 points (24 games). There was a lot of stats padding against weaker non-WCHA teams yet they still managed to lose some of these games.

[ChickHicks86]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

2 thoughts:

1) Speculating who "coulda, woulda, shoulda" (-Jim Mora Sr.) won this game or that game in women's college hockey (and especially the WCHA) is so much harder than any record or computer rating will tell you. The teams not named Minnesota and Wisconsin are so erratic from week to week that you never know what you're going to get. When you play UMD for instance, are you playing the team that gives the Gophers fits and swept BC and OSU at home, or are you playing the Bulldog squad that split the season series with St. Cloud and was handled by Wisconsin? It's like two completely different teams. How do players and coaches prepare for that?

2) I think ARM nailed it with the reliance on a "comparatively smaller core group to be their difference makers in any game." In OSU's case, when Maltais gets at least a point, the Buckeyes are 18-6-2. When she doesn't, they are 0-6. Similarly when Dunne tallies at least a point, they are 12-7-1, and 6-5-1 when she doesn't. I just picked the top scoring F and D for that statistic, but I think that depth is the biggest difference between the national contenders and the pretty good teams. For a team like Ohio State to get to that national level and stay there, they either need to recruit a team full of elite players every season (not a very realistic goal) or else get really good at developing the players they do have from year to year such that a girl contributes more and more over the course of her career. An individual player (especially a goaltender) can win games, but it is ultimately the teams with a lot of contributing pieces that sustain their winning ways over the course of a season.

[osualum86]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

Great points by everyone. I think I will take a break from complaining about the 12 losses and enjoy the progress the program has made. This program never came close to an NCAA Tournament, let alone a Frozen Four appearance, until last year. This year, we have a shot at making a second NCAA Tournament appearance in a row. I need to get back to just enjoying the ride.

[D2D]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

It would not surprise me at all to see this series being tighter than most would expect.

MSU women's hockey team likes playoff matchup with Ohio State
http://www.mankatofreepress.com/spor...39e0ad48a.html

[pgb-ohio]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

It would not surprise me at all to see this series being tighter than most would expect.

The Mavs have good players and could certainly win or make things close. History suggests it's unlikely, however. Since the Best-Of-Three/Campus Sites Format was adopted in 2006, Home teams have been highly successful. The lopsided tally:
Home Team = 45 Series Wins
Road Team = 5 Series Wins

Further, all but 1 of the upsets have come in the #4 vs. #5 Match-up. The List:
2010 OSU defeats UW, 2-0
2013 OSU defeats UMD, 2-0
2015 Bemidji defeats UMD, 2-1
2018 Bemidji defeats UMD, 2-1

Yes, the #6 Seed has beaten the #3 Seed -- 1 Time in 13 Tournaments:
2010 Bemidji defeats SCSU, 2-1
Interestingly enough, this is the only time that the #6 vs. #3 series has even gone to a 3rd Game. Perhaps somewhat weirdly, the #7 Seed has forced a Game 3 more often. That's happened on three occasions: 2007, 2014 & 2017.

Anything can happen, of course. That's hockey. But if you're looking for a tight series, you should probably focus most of your attention on Duluth this weekend.

MSU women's hockey team likes playoff matchup with Ohio State
https://www.mankatofreepress.com/spo...39e0ad48a.html

Thanks for posting this link!

[osualum86]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

Ohio State gutted out a 3-2 OT win earlier tonight vs Minnesota State to take game one of this best-of-three series. Maverick netminder Abigail Levy was sensational and kept her team in the game by stopping 39 of the 42 shots she faced. Buckeye goaltender Andrea Braendli stopped 19 of the 21 shots she faced. Ohio State dominated the game but had trouble finding the back of the net against Levy, who certainly backed up her WCHA Second Team and All Rookie Team selection. The Buckeyes opened the scoring in this one when Tatum Skaggs found the back of the net at the 5:18 mark of the first period. The Mavericks answered later in the period on a power play goal by Brooke Bryant to tie it at 1-1. With a minute to go in the first period, Lisa Bruno found the back of the net for Ohio State and they took a 2-1 lead into the first intermission. Neither team scored in the second period so the teams went into the final period with the Buckeyes leading 2-1. It took all of 1:26 for Brooke Bryant to score her second of the night and knot things up at 2-2. Neither team would score the rest of regulation so overtime was needed, or, at least an extra 28 seconds. That was all it took for Emma Maltais to find the back of the net and give the Buckeyes a 3-2 win. Give credit to Sophie Jaques who sent a beautiful pass up the ice to spring Maltais and get her behind the Maverick defense. Levy stopped the initial shot, but Emma pounced on the rebound and got it past her for the game-winner. Game two is tomorrow at 3:07 pm.

[pgb-ohio]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

Final Score From Friday, March 1st
Game 1 of the WCHA Quarterfinals:
Ohio State 3
Minnesota State 2
(O.T.)

Is Five Minutes of Overtime Enough? How about 28 Seconds?

Recently the Special Characters of USCHO came together to discuss College Hockey's Overtime Rules. The thread starter took a poke at the status quo, voicing his displeasure with Those %&# @*%$ Shoot Outs! As many noted, Five Minutes of 5 on 5 Hockey often isn't enough to break a regular season tie. But in the post-season, 28 seconds can be plenty.

The Buckeyes most steadfast supporter, osualum86, has posted his game summary. Always an astute observer, he saw pretty much the same game I did. But here's my take, in the usual 3 Stars format.

Three Stars Of The Game: Decidedly Unofficial & Just For Fun

Minnesota State Honorable Mention: Abigail Levy
As '86 noted, Abby played an amazing game. With a lesser keeper in the Maverick net, my belief is that the Buckeyes would have won 5-2 in regulation time. But Levy was consistently strong. On the good scoring chances, she made the saves look easy. On the great scoring chances, she made head-scratching saves. In the end, she came up one goal short. But it was still a noteworthy performance.

Ohio State Honorable Mention: (tie)Gabby Rosenthal and Charly Dahlquist
Playoff Intensity deserves a Mention. Gabby made great use of her minutes; contributing a ton of energy to the OSU effort. On the scoresheet, Rosenthal bagged a valuable assist, feeding Lisa Bruno on the 2nd Buckeye Goal.

Charly was the gutsiest Buckeye, as always. To get things going, Dahlquist won 13 of 19 draws. At the end of the day, she was +2. Only Tatum Skaggs & Emma Maltais matched that number in this tight contest.


#3 Star: (tie) Lauren Boyle, Ohio State; and Lisa Bruno, Ohio State
Both Buckeye goals in regulation time were generated by shots from the point. The Boyle Bomb was redirected into the net by Tatum Skaggs. The Bruno Blast beat Levy cleanly.

#2 Star: Brooke Bryant, Minnesota State
Power Plays were in very short supply in Game 1. How short a supply? Exactly one PP for the entire game. Brooke took full advantage of the rare advantage. Receiving a crisp cross-ice pass from Megan Hinze, Bryant ripped a shot into the Buckeye net before the keeper could slide across the crease.

It was fine goal, but Brooke wasn't done. Early in the 3rd Period, Bryant took a neutral zone pass from Emily Antony. Crossing the blue line with a determined individual rush on the right wing side, Brooke cruised into shooting position and beat the goalie inside the left post.

#1 Star: Emma Maltais, Ohio State
Throughout the game the Buckeyes used a variety of tactics to probe the Maverick defense, looking for an opening. Several stretch passes were attempted; some came oh-so-close. But in regulation time, nothing in the transition game got the job done.

Then came overtime. Sophie Jaques grabbed control of the puck and made an oh-so-good stretch pass to Emma. OH! IO! Air Maltais was cleared for take-off. Emma jetted toward the Maverick net, and the flight didn't disappoint. Still, even the Mighty Maltais couldn't beat Levy on the first try. But the second whack completed the attack, and the celebration was on.


Up Next: Game 2 With The Mavericks @ 3:07 PM Saturday. It's a cliché, but it's true: Ending your opponent's season is tough to do. Should be a great game. See you at the Ice Rink.

[osualum86]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

Pgb, thanks for the props, and for your Three Stars Of The Game! That is the highlight of my weekend here at the uscho.com fan forum!

The Buckeyes finished the job today, winning 3-0 to close things out and punch their ticket to Minneapolis next weekend. Maverick goaltender Abigail Levy was brilliant and once again prevented the Bucks from putting this one away early, but the Buckeyes eventually broke through with two third period goals to advance to the WCHA Final Face Off next weekend.

Charly Dahlquist opened the scoring for the Bucks in the first period on a power play goal at the 2:04 mark of the game. The score stayed that way until late in the third period when Jacyn Reeves lit the lamp at the 16:30 mark and basically ended it for the Mavericks. Jincy Dunne added an empty netter with :38 seconds left to seal the deal in Ohio State's 3-0 win. The Buckeyes outshot Minnesota State today 38-28. Buckeye goaltender Andrea Braendli saved all 28 shots she faced to get the shutout. Minnesota State goaltender Abigail Levy stopped 25 of the 27 shots she faced.

The Mavericks' season ends today. Ohio State moves on to face Wisconsin in the WCHA Final Face Off next weekend.

[pgb-ohio]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

Final Score From Saturday, March 2nd
Game 2 of the WCHA Quarterfinals:
Ohio State 3
Minnesota State 0
(Ohio State Wins Series, 2 Games To 0)

The Parents Saw It Coming: Buckeyes Complete Sweep, Earn Final Face-Off Berth

I experienced a good omen on the way into the Ice Rink today. In recent years a "Parents & Besties Pre-Game Tailgate" has become a Saturday tradition. This time it was loud and proud. Really rocking the river. A bit more spirited than usual. Didn't check to see what was in those mugs. But there was definitely confidence and celebration in the air. Sometimes Parents really do know best.

Clairvoyance aside, that was a playoff series. The Mavericks proved to be a very tough out, vindicating D2D's prediction. At the same time, the relentless tides of history took their toll. For the 13th time in 14 seasons, the #3 vs. #6 match-up ended in a sweep for the home team. Overall, it was a win-win as far as I'm concerned. The Mavericks won respect; the Buckeyes won the series. You on board with that, D2D?

Three Stars Of The Game: Decidedly Unofficial & Just For Fun

Minnesota State Honorable Mention: Tristen Truax
Quite honestly I should be honoring the entire Mankato 'D' Corps. They were constantly poke checking, disrupting shots and blocking shots. The very active Maverick sticks made the Buckeyes' job on offense much more difficult. Picking out a Mankato player to represent the group is equally challenging. But I'm going with the strong & mobile Truax. Along with multiple teammates, Tristen had two shot blocks on the day.

Ohio State Honorable Mention: Jincy Dunne
Perhaps fittingly, the silky smooth Dunne wrapped up the Home Ice Season with one of the calmest goals you'll ever see. With ice in her veins & a surgically precise aim, Jincy lobbed the puck from her own zone, into empty net at the opposite end of the rink. Keep Calm & Bury The Empty-Netter!


#3 Star: Charly Dahlquist, Ohio State
Charly opened the scoring just 2:04 into the game. Camped in the slot, Dahlquist executed a careful tip of a Jacyn Reeves drive. It really got the game off on the right foot for OSU. Granted, what came next was almost 55 minutes of nerve-wracking hockey. But while playing with the a slender lead was a little stressful, trying to play catch-up must have been much worse.

#2 Star: Andrea Braendli, Ohio State
Mankato may be a defense first team, but they certainly aren't defense-only. I was impressed the Mavericks' 2nd Line of Antony/Fleming/Bryant all weekend long. And of course the All-Senior line of McLaughlin/Boyd/Kolstad made lots of noise. Mankato has a legitimate set of Top 6 Forwards.

And yet, Andrea held them all off the board. All. Game. Long. Thus earning the shutout. Had there been even one miscue, who knows what the outcome might have been? But Braendli made sure the door stayed closed.

#1 Star: Jacyn Reeves, Ohio State
The big breakthrough came with just 3:30 left in regulation time. Lauren Boyle gained posession just inside the Buckeye blue line, then directed the puck to Liz Schepers. Liz crafted an artful lob, sending Jacyn off on a rush up the left wing. Reeves beat everyone to the Maverick net. From there, she caught the Mankato keeper cheating just a smidge to the far post, and smartly deposited the puck into the short side.

The Reeves' goal was punch-the-air good. And for all intents and purposes, it was the knockout punch. Yes, there a 6 on 4 PK to complete during the frenzied three minutes that closed out the game. But after Jacyn scored, there was an easy confidence in the air. A warm feeling that "we've got this." And we did.


Up Next: The Final Face-Off in Minneapolis. It's been a fine season, But to achieve greatness, two more wins are needed. Or, an alternative path to greatness would be to beat Wisconsin, then get a little help in the other conference tournaments. Thus squeezing into the NCAA tournament.

Up After That: When the Buckeye season concludes -- be that sooner or later -- I'm planning to do a Year-End 3 Stars. But hey, I'm a patient person. I'd have no problem waiting through 5 more games before posting another 3 Stars.

[D2D]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

Final Score From Saturday, March 2nd
Game 2 of the WCHA Quarterfinals:
Ohio State 3
Minnesota State 0
(Ohio State Wins Series, 2 Games To 0)

The Parents Saw It Coming: Buckeyes Complete Sweep, Earn Final Face-Off Berth

Clairvoyance aside, that was a playoff series. The Mavericks proved to be a very tough out, vindicating D2D's prediction. At the same time, the relentless tides of history took their toll. For the 13th time in 14 seasons, the #3 vs. #6 match-up ended in a sweep for the home team. Overall, it was a win-win as far as I'm concerned. The Mavericks won respect; the Buckeyes won the series. You on board with that, D2D?

Very much so, although going into the series I thought the Mavs had a decent shot of extending it to three games. And they came close to doing that Friday night, extending that game to OT. But I give the Buckeyes credit for taking care of business, they did what it took to win and advance. Good luck* in Minneapolis!

*Only applies to the first game, against the Badgers!

[osualum86]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2018-19

Very much so, although going into the series I thought the Mavs had a decent shot of extending it to three games. And they came close to doing that Friday night, extending that game to OT. But I give the Buckeyes credit for taking care of business, they did what it took to win and advance. Good luck* in Minneapolis!

*Only applies to the first game, against the Badgers!

We're counting on you and your friends to cheer us on Saturday!