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Thread: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

  1. #101
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    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    Not a lot of changes this week, but my dream of the Random Number winning is probably dead. Too bad.

    Code:
    Rk Post#         Contestant
     1    66         FlagDUDE08  116 
     2    29           TchrBill  126 
     3    26             Replay  134 
     4    36  iowabasedtraveler  136 
     5    76      goldenbriggsy  140 
     6    25         GoldenBear  144 
     7    49            Rolevio  146 
     8    39       techtodenver  148 
     9    62             Kepler  158 
    10    42  Bronco Hockey Fan  162 
          70        Mike Hutter  162 
          71   hockeyplayer1015  162 
    13    20               Turk  164 
    14    78    The Fan Average  166 
    15     2      Mr. Last Year  168 
          28            drshoen  168 
          43     TovarishchLisa  168 
          53             cudmud  168 
    19    41    TheValleyRaider  170 
          50 still an empty net  170 
          75         slumulva88  170 
    22     3               vicb  172 
          40   TalonsUpPuckDown  172 
    24    19         Ralph Baer  176 
          34         fishcore12  176 
          37              sgt12  176 
          62               TBRW  176 
    28     2          The Media  178 
          54            capswon  178 
    30     2        The Coaches  180 
    31    22           Saints#1  190 
    32    60            jstadts  192 
    33    69          BIG Green  194 
    34    35         Go Puckman  198 
    35    65            Rainman  200 
    36     7      ecachawkeyfan  202 
    37    15          GreenBear  206 
    38    59            bothman  212 
    39    72           Dutchman  214 
    40     2  The Random Number  216 
           6         ColSkate65  216 
    42    73           sshablak  220 
    43    44           lugnut92  226 
    44    58            Rjm7272  228 
    45    17            kdiff77  252 
    46    74          red133883  258 
     *     *                  *  182
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

  2. #102
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    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    As we enter the final weekend, FlagDUDE08 has a decent sized lead, but there's a lot of movement still possible that could mix everything up. Let's see what happens!

    Code:
    Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
     1    66         FlagDUDE08   92
     2    76      goldenbriggsy  120
     3    29           TchrBill  126
     4    26             Replay  128
     5    49            Rolevio  130
     6    25         GoldenBear  134
          53             cudmud  134
     8     2      Mr. Last Year  142
          36  iowabasedtraveler  142
    10    20               Turk  144
    11    50 still an empty net  146
          70        Mike Hutter  146
    13    71   hockeyplayer1015  148
    14    39       techtodenver  150
    15    37              sgt12  154
          62               TBRW  154
    17    42  Bronco Hockey Fan  156
          78    The Fan Average  156
    19    43     TovarishchLisa  158
          62             Kepler  158
    21    28            drshoen  162
          40   TalonsUpPuckDown  162
    23    19         Ralph Baer  164
          34         fishcore12  164
          75         slumulva88  164
    26     2          The Media  168
    27     2  The Random Number  172
    28     2        The Coaches  174
          22           Saints#1  174
    30    41    TheValleyRaider  176
    31     7      ecachawkeyfan  178
    32    69          BIG Green  180
    33     3               vicb  182
          65            Rainman  182
    35    59            bothman  184
          60            jstadts  184
    37    54            capswon  186
    38     6         ColSkate65  192
          15          GreenBear  192
          72           Dutchman  192
    41    73           sshablak  194
    42    35         Go Puckman  222
    43    58            Rjm7272  228
    44    17            kdiff77  232
    45    44           lugnut92  238
    46    74          red133883  242
     *     *                  *  176
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

  3. #103
    Ever True since '92
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    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    I finish close to last in this every single year lol

  4. #104
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    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    It's a worst-to-first story as FlagDUDE08 wins this year's ECAC Pick The Standings contest just a season after taking last place (among real people)! His score places him 7th of 17 among the pantheon of our previous winners. He somehow didn't get any teams exactly correct, but he did get 5 teams with one position (and 9 teams within two) of the real standings. His worst miss was Princeton in 4th place (remember this for later).

    As a whole, we did much better than last year, with 7 participants posting scores under 100 (up from one), the Fan Average improving by 58 points, and only one poster (me!) posting a score of 200 or worse (down from 16 last season). Last year's winner, goldenbriggsy, basically matched their performance from last year and took second place. Last year's overall loser "chose not to participate" but as I mentioned above, the worst real poster from last year did well for himself this time around.

    The non-poster picks did decently, as Mr. Last Year, the Media, and the Coaches all placed right in the middle of the standings. The Random Number was toward the bottom of the table, but did beat three posters and had one of its better performances of the last few seasons.

    I take last place, but I'll take consolation in the fact that I had the best ever last overall score, edging out Papa Smurf's 2005-06 season picks. Imagine if I wasn't a reckless homer about RPI!

    The long-distance travel pair had by far the biggest affect on our selections, as they combined to cost us an average of 73 points as we all overestimated Princeton and underestimated Quinnipiac. Conversely, we all did a good job of placing Clarkson, Cornell, Harvard, RPI, SLU, and Yale, which cost us fewer than four points each and were nailed by at least six of us. Looking more closely, SLU was picked in the correct position by 12 of us (over 25%), and Cornell lost us just 1.2 points as only two of us (including the RNG and Mr. Last Year) missed them by more than one spot.

    Thanks to everyone on their participation in this year's contest!

    Summary Graphs:


    (left: Violin plot of scores, right: Heat map of our deviations from reality)


    Final standings:
    Code:
    Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
     1    66         FlagDUDE08   68
     2    76      goldenbriggsy   80
     3    49            Rolevio   90
     4    20               Turk   92
     5    42  Bronco Hockey Fan   96
     6    70        Mike Hutter   98
          71   hockeyplayer1015   98
     8    36  iowabasedtraveler  102
     9    25         GoldenBear  104
          75         slumulva88  104
    11    37              sgt12  110
          62               TBRW  110
    13    29           TchrBill  112
          39       techtodenver  112
    15    26             Replay  114
          28            drshoen  114
          78    The Fan Average  114
    18    40   TalonsUpPuckDown  116
    19     2      Mr. Last Year  118
    20    43     TovarishchLisa  120
    21     2          The Media  122
          19         Ralph Baer  122
          53             cudmud  122
          62             Kepler  122
          69          BIG Green  122
    26    15          GreenBear  130
          34         fishcore12  130
          41    TheValleyRaider  130
    29     2        The Coaches  132
          50 still an empty net  132
    31     7      ecachawkeyfan  136
    32     3               vicb  138
          22           Saints#1  138
          60            jstadts  138
    35    54            capswon  140
          73           sshablak  140
    37    65            Rainman  142
    38    72           Dutchman  144
    39     6         ColSkate65  150
    40    59            bothman  154
    41    35         Go Puckman  162
    42    74          red133883  176
    43     2  The Random Number  178
    44    17            kdiff77  182
    45    58            Rjm7272  194
    46    44           lugnut92  224
     *     *                  *  114
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

  5. #105
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    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    Thanks, lugnut, for running the contest this year. Always fun, even if I do poorly every season....:-(
    COLGATE HOCKEY:"Welcome aboard Mitch, Andrew, Griffin and Jeff"

  6. #106
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    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    w00t!

    Are you doing Pick the Playoffs as well?
    It was an honor to present your colors, RPI. Let's Go 'TUTE!
    May 14th, 2011, 11:00 PM ET: 2147483647

    "Better to be infamous than never famous at all." -Roger Stone

    Quote Originally Posted by French Rage View Post
    Ahh crap I agree exactly with what FlagDude said.
    Quote Originally Posted by Handyman View Post
    And yet, even if Flaggy is complete tinfoil hat, every day it looks closer and closer to the truth.
    Quote Originally Posted by burd View Post
    So flaggy: you win.

  7. #107
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    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    Another summary graph, this time comparing the score distributions over the last 10 years. Hope you all like violin plots.



    This year was arguably one of our best ever, though looking back at previous years with over 100 entries just kind of make me sad. Also, the standings were apparently super predictable in 15-16. I had forgotten.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

  8. #108
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    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    I believe this was my historical best performance.

    Thanks for running it! May the predictions be in your favor next year folks.

  9. #109
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    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    Quote Originally Posted by lugnut92 View Post
    This year was arguably one of our best ever, though looking back at previous years with over 100 entries just kind of make me sad.
    That probably reflects the downturn in posting overall on USCHO.

  10. #110
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    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    Quote Originally Posted by lugnut92 View Post
    It's a worst-to-first story as FlagDUDE08 wins this year's ECAC Pick The Standings contest just a season after taking last place (among real people)! His score places him 7th of 17 among the pantheon of our previous winners. He somehow didn't get any teams exactly correct, but he did get 5 teams with one position (and 9 teams within two) of the real standings. His worst miss was Princeton in 4th place (remember this for later).

    As a whole, we did much better than last year, with 7 participants posting scores under 100 (up from one), the Fan Average improving by 58 points, and only one poster (me!) posting a score of 200 or worse (down from 16 last season). Last year's winner, goldenbriggsy, basically matched their performance from last year and took second place. Last year's overall loser "chose not to participate" but as I mentioned above, the worst real poster from last year did well for himself this time around.

    The non-poster picks did decently, as Mr. Last Year, the Media, and the Coaches all placed right in the middle of the standings. The Random Number was toward the bottom of the table, but did beat three posters and had one of its better performances of the last few seasons.

    I take last place, but I'll take consolation in the fact that I had the best ever last overall score, edging out Papa Smurf's 2005-06 season picks. Imagine if I wasn't a reckless homer about RPI!

    The long-distance travel pair had by far the biggest affect on our selections, as they combined to cost us an average of 73 points as we all overestimated Princeton and underestimated Quinnipiac. Conversely, we all did a good job of placing Clarkson, Cornell, Harvard, RPI, SLU, and Yale, which cost us fewer than four points each and were nailed by at least six of us. Looking more closely, SLU was picked in the correct position by 12 of us (over 25%), and Cornell lost us just 1.2 points as only two of us (including the RNG and Mr. Last Year) missed them by more than one spot.

    Thanks to everyone on their participation in this year's contest!

    Summary Graphs:


    (left: Violin plot of scores, right: Heat map of our deviations from reality)


    Final standings:
    Code:
    Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
     1    66         FlagDUDE08   68
     2    76      goldenbriggsy   80
     3    49            Rolevio   90
     4    20               Turk   92
     5    42  Bronco Hockey Fan   96
     6    70        Mike Hutter   98
          71   hockeyplayer1015   98
     8    36  iowabasedtraveler  102
     9    25         GoldenBear  104
          75         slumulva88  104
    11    37              sgt12  110
          62               TBRW  110
    13    29           TchrBill  112
          39       techtodenver  112
    15    26             Replay  114
          28            drshoen  114
          78    The Fan Average  114
    18    40   TalonsUpPuckDown  116
    19     2      Mr. Last Year  118
    20    43     TovarishchLisa  120
    21     2          The Media  122
          19         Ralph Baer  122
          53             cudmud  122
          62             Kepler  122
          69          BIG Green  122
    26    15          GreenBear  130
          34         fishcore12  130
          41    TheValleyRaider  130
    29     2        The Coaches  132
          50 still an empty net  132
    31     7      ecachawkeyfan  136
    32     3               vicb  138
          22           Saints#1  138
          60            jstadts  138
    35    54            capswon  140
          73           sshablak  140
    37    65            Rainman  142
    38    72           Dutchman  144
    39     6         ColSkate65  150
    40    59            bothman  154
    41    35         Go Puckman  162
    42    74          red133883  176
    43     2  The Random Number  178
    44    17            kdiff77  182
    45    58            Rjm7272  194
    46    44           lugnut92  224
     *     *                  *  114
    Two BG shout outs to Lug for constructing this whole fun contest, putting in the time and effort and Flag for bringing home the hardware! As for me, I picked BG to finish 4th, off by one and now off to the playoffs!

  11. #111
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    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    Thanks for keeping the contest alive and well. Look forward to playing again next year.
    Fan of CLARKSON: 2014, 2017 & 2018 NC$$ WOMEN'S DIV 1 HOCKEY NATIONAL CHAMPIONS
    WHOOOOOOOOO WHOOOOOOOOO
    If Union Can Do It So Can CCT (One of These Years)

  12. #112
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    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    It is great to see this competition still going!

    It is not great to see my only claim to participation is one of the biggest losers.
    Signed: Ralph Baer "..gave proof through the Knight.."

    Clarkson Men's/Women’s Hockey
    ECAC RS: Men: 66, 77, 81, 82, 91, 95, 97, 99, 01, 08 Women: 14, 15, 17, 18
    ECAC Tourney: Men: 66, 91, 93, 99, 07 Women: 17, 18
    NCAA Tourn Appearance: Men: 57, 58, 62, 63, 66, 70, 81, 82, 84, 90, 91, 92, 93, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 07, 08, 18 Women: 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18
    NCAA Frozen 4 Appearance: Men: 57, 58, 62, 63, 66, 70, 91 Women: 14, 16, 17, 18
    NCAA TITLES: Men: Women: 2014 2017 2018

  13. #113
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    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    Congrats FlagDUDE08 on this win this season
    Clarkson Golden Knights
    2018 ECAC Pick 'Em Champion
    2018 ECAC Pick the Standings Champion

  14. #114
    Roll along you BG Warriors!
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    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    First time caller, long time listener...it was fun, congrats FlagDUDE and I'm in next year.

  15. #115
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    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    Thanks, Lugnut and congrats Flaggie.

  16. #116
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    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Earl_Leatherland View Post
    It is great to see this competition still going!

    It is not great to see my only claim to participation is one of the biggest losers.
    Good grief, one of my alter egos has returned or someone stole his password. I see that I am still mentioned in your sig.

    When was the last time that you were either here or the Clarkson board?

  17. #117
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    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Baer View Post
    Good grief, one of my alter egos has returned or someone stole his password. I see that I am still mentioned in your sig.

    When was the last time that you were either here or the Clarkson board?
    I have not posted for a number of years, but am on USCHO constantly throughout the year.

    I have been doing the instant replay review for Niagara University for the past 10 years, so keeping up with other goings on via USCHO is incredibly useful.
    Last edited by Earl_Leatherland; 03-07-2019 at 12:05 PM.
    Signed: Ralph Baer "..gave proof through the Knight.."

    Clarkson Men's/Women’s Hockey
    ECAC RS: Men: 66, 77, 81, 82, 91, 95, 97, 99, 01, 08 Women: 14, 15, 17, 18
    ECAC Tourney: Men: 66, 91, 93, 99, 07 Women: 17, 18
    NCAA Tourn Appearance: Men: 57, 58, 62, 63, 66, 70, 81, 82, 84, 90, 91, 92, 93, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 07, 08, 18 Women: 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18
    NCAA Frozen 4 Appearance: Men: 57, 58, 62, 63, 66, 70, 91 Women: 14, 16, 17, 18
    NCAA TITLES: Men: Women: 2014 2017 2018

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