Malaysia it looks like.
And 4th right now is not a guarantee. The US right now is tied with Honduras for 3rd/4th (with the US holding the better GD) but Panama is one back with 7 and playing Mexico right now. A draw puts all three on 8 points, with the US facing a likely loss to Honduras and Panama with a great shot against T&T. Those results hold, the US is in 5th facing two do or die games just to potentially be in 4th.
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I think you're being a bit pessimistic about the US's chances. The US is currently tied with Honduras for 3rd with 8 points and Panama is a point back in 5th. The three teams remaining schedules:
US: (Combined 2-0-1 (7 points) in previous meetings, outscoring opposition 9-1)
@ Honduras (previous Hex meeting - US won 6-0 in San Jose);
vs Panama (previous Hex meeting - 1-1 Draw in Panama); and
@ Trinidad & Tobago (previous Hex meeting - US won 2-0 in Denver)
Honduras: (Combined 0-1-2 (1 point) in previous meetings, outscored 1-10)
vs US (previous Hex meeting - 6-0 Loss in US);
@ Costa Rica (previous Hex meeting - 1-1 Draw in Honduras); and
vs Mexico (previous Hex meeting 3-0 Loss in Mexico)
Panama: (Combined 0-2-1 (2 points) in previous meetings, outscored 1-2)
vs Trinidad & Tobago (previous Hex meeting - 1-0 Loss in Trinidad & Tobago);
@ US (previous Hex meeting - 1-1 Draw in Panama); and
vs Costa Rica (previous Hex meeting - 0-0 Draw in Costa Rica)
Now, I get that the US has 2 out of 3 on the road, but they will be playing the 3 bottom teams in the Hex. Given that the US should knock off Panama at home, and beat Trinidad & Tobago (particularly if their World Cup lives depend on it), a draw against Honduras keeps the US in decent shape, and a win almost assures qualification. Throw in that the US crushed Honduras 6-0 in the previous matchup this cycle, and has beaten Honduras in Honduras in 2 of their last 3 Hex meetings, and I just don't understand the doom and gloom. Is the US in great shape to qualify? No, but they are still in decent shape, and I would bet on the squad making it to Russia in 2018.
North Dakota
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The fact that the US beat Honduras 6-0 in San Jose has little meaning beyond +3 points and +6 GD (not a small thing to be fair). Road games in CONCACAF are completely different animal, especially ones in the heat in San Pedro Sula. Frankly, a draw in that game would be considered a great result.
No. A draw @ Mexico was a great result. A draw @ Honduras would be a decent result...similar to the draw @ Panama. A win would be a very good result, and a loss would be a disappointing result.
I think you are taking last night's loss a little too harshly and overreacting to the CONCACAF landscape. Certainly someone as familiar with soccer as you should know that the US typically responds well to adversity and poor performances...particularly against CONCACAF competition. I believe they will again.
North Dakota
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Realizing that previous results don't guarantee future successes, the US is 3-0-1 at Honduras during WCQ matches.
Maybe FIFA should adopt PWR to seed the World Cup??
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/...nds-world-cup/
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In the 66th minute US 0 Honduras 1.
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Down 1-0 in the 2nd half. Lulz
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