Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes early

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

With Donald at Nuremburg.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

That doesn't explain the tightening in all the state polls. Or are those rigged too?

Kep, again pollsters are constantly adjusting their models as they try to predict a Nov result in August. There's nothing necessarily nefarious about it, but you're missing the forest for the trees. You tell me what states you're now worried about Trump winning that you weren't 10 days ago. Don't like putting you on the spot, but if you insist...

Beyond that, that ND dude seemed to think I consider this race to be over. I don't although its going to take several kick a ss debate performances for Trump to turn this around. Where I see this race currently is a cross between 2008 and 2012 if today's #'s hold until Nov. Hillary won't win states like IN or a razor thin loss in MO like Obama did. I don't see her taking NE-1 either. She is however in little danger of losing any Obama '12 states with the possible exception of IA. On the flip side she's poised to capture NC.

A 6% victory nets 7 Senate seats (IL, WI, PA, NH, IN*, NC, FL) and 20 House seats. As things stand now Portman and McCain hang on.

But, back to you. Where do you see her losing Kep?

* Indiana senate seat is a special case not as related to the Presidential outcome as the other seats

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Kep, again pollsters are constantly adjusting their models as they try to predict a Nov result in August. There's nothing necessarily nefarious about it, but you're missing the forest for the trees. You tell me what states you're now worried about Trump winning that you weren't 10 days ago. Don't like putting you on the spot, but if you insist...

I think you need to read Nate and Harry's notes on 538 poll methodology. It's the best there is out there and it is extremely sophisticated and methodologically sound. The criticisms you are making don't really address the sampling and predictive issues involved.

You're bringing socio-political arguments to a math test, which sounds eerily like the conservatives' "unskewing the polls" malarky in 2012. If the model is flawed it's flawed due to issues of statistical goodness of fit.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

But, back to you. Where do you see her losing Kep?

If she continues to erode more or less across the board due to unpopularity and untrustworthiness, the states should drop off in order of her current margin. In the past few weeks several states have moved into the loss column: GA and AZ, which were always a reach, then NE-2, ME-2, which were toss-up. But now the rot has now claimed states that were the final buffer before we got into the hard purples: NC and IA. She's running out of margin for error. The next states would logically be: OH, FL, NV. After that: NH and the election.

Two weeks ago she was 8 states past the fulcrum. Now it's 4. She'd still win if the election was today, but it aint and she's moving in the wrong direction.

Obviously she can pull out of it and I believe she will. I believe the debates will be her competent, knowledgeable adult vs Trump's sniveling, ignorant teenager. But in many ways that was Gore v Dubya, and we saw there that a huge chunk of this country never left high school and instinctively fears the smarter candidate.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

I think you need to read Nate and harry's notes on 538 poll methodology. It's the best there is out there and it is extremely sophisticated and methodologically sound. The criticisms you are making don't really address the sampling and predictive issues involved.

You're bringing socio-political arguments to a math test, which sounds eerily like the conservatives' "unskewing the polls" malarky in 2012. If the model is flawed it's flawed due to issues of statistical goodness of fit.

With all due respect Kep, this is a dodge. I asked you a simple question. What states are you now worried about that you previously weren't?

My problem isn't with nate at all. He does a stellar job but 3 months out he's at the mercy of widely fluctuating polling which he can't do much about. My position has remained the same. A poll showing Hillary with a 10 point lead is absurd. A poll showing Trump tied is absurd. Given how well known both of these people are, and no new news about either of them that we didn't already know about, the race is in actuality remarkable static. A lets call it a roughly 5-6% Hillary lead.

Now since I've laid my cards on the table, perhaps you'd care to as well?

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

With all due respect Kep, this is a dodge. I asked you a simple question. What states are you now worried about that you previously weren't?

If there's one thing you should probably have noticed by now, Rover, it's that I don't dodge. I don't prevaricate or lawyer points and I loathe being accused of that.

[unofan]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

And Rover has gone full on unskewedpolls.com. Wow.

If the stakes were lower, I'd be tempted to vote Trump just to make Rover eat crow...

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

If she continues to erode more or less across the board due to unpopularity and untrustworthiness, the states should drop off in order of her current margin. In the past few weeks several states have moved into the loss column: GA and AZ, which were always a reach, then NE-2, ME-2, which were toss-up. But now the rot has now claimed states that were the final buffer before we got into the hard purples: NC and IA. She's running out of margin for error. The next states would logically be: OH, FL, NV. After that: NH and the election.

Two weeks ago she was 8 states past the fulcrum. Now it's 4. She'd still win if the election was today, but it aint and she's moving in the wrong direction.

Let me politely say this is patently absurd and we'll agree to disagree.

And Rover has gone full on unskewedpolls.com. Wow.

If the stakes were lower, I'd be tempted to vote Trump just to make Rover eat crow...

I'm sorry, but what state am I showing a Hillary victory in that she's currently losing?

EDIT: So I'm the one unskewering polls when his own campaign is telling him his path to 270 is running out. Huh...

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/01/us...one-share&_r=2

[SonofSouthie]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Several major Latino surrogates for Donald Trump are reconsidering their support for him following the Republican nominee’s hardline speech on immigration Wednesday night.

Jacob Monty, a member of Trump’s National Hispanic Advisory Council, quickly resigned after the speech. Another member, Ramiro Pena, a Texas pastor, said Trump's speech likely cost him the election and said he'd have to reconsider being part of a "scam." And Alfonso Aguilar, the president of the Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles, said in an interview that he is “inclined” to pull his support.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/0...gration-227615

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

And Rover has gone full on unskewedpolls.com. Wow.

If the stakes were lower, I'd be tempted to vote Trump just to make Rover eat crow...

It might happen and you won't even have to do that. Rover is drinking a lot of Kool-Aid. But, hey, I'm stupid so don't listen to me.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

So Trump's campaign is worried about his standing in the race as we write, even his own kids, yet he's on the march and about to overtake Hillary?

Huh...

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Isn't he from North Dakota?

Yeah, North Dakota: That dreary barren place that only exports things like food and energy. Folks in those 149 counties surely have no interest in that.

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Johnson will do better than most 3rd party candidates but he's not going to reach near double digits.

Johnson recently lost the entire "liberal" wing of the libertarian-leaning voters by coming out in favor of federally enforced immunization requirements. If they have a single issue, that's it*. It's getting a lot of coverage in those places where the hippies congregate online, and means that Hillary will pick up 4% that Johnson is losing.

*I mean besides the pot, of course.

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

The weird thing is, Trump isn't gaining. Nobody's gaining. 2 weeks ago it was Clinton 49 Trump 39 Johnson 9. Now it's Clinton 44 Trump 39 Johnson 9. Those 5 points just got thrown back in the hopper, they didn't stick to anybody.

No one is gaining; they're all deflating. All hot air cools off sooner or later, and thus cometh the deflation.

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

The debates arent there to sway the Drumpfers to vote Hillary, it is to sway everyone else not to vote for him. If she owns him the Palin Brigade will be the only ones voting for him and that wont be enough even with her mediocre favorability.