Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

The road ahead for Boris is actually pretty easy. He takes the UK out of Europe without a deal. There is a vote of no confidence. If he wins, case closed. If he loses (incredibly likely) then either Jeremy Corbyn becomes the temporary PM until the election or Boris remains in charge if the coalition can't agree on Corbyn. In the new election, he appeals to the Brexit Party by pointing to the fact that he's already taken the UK out of Europe, thus dampening the party's effectiveness at challenging him. Labour and the Lib Dems split the vote on the left + the Tories are the only option left on the right = Conservative House of Commons and Boris remaining as PM. The only way Boris fails is if the Brexit Party is able to maintain relevancy even though Boris has already taken them out and the vote on the right is split too. That could lead to a very interesting election and resulting Parliament.

It should be pointed out that legal experts differ on whether the UK will even be out if 31 October passes without a deal, but it will be tied up in court for ages - and which court will even have jurisdiction? Meanwhile, the UK breaks the Good Friday Agreement and becomes a rogue nation. Will that have ramifications? The United States can get away with committing war crimes because we're a huge economy and a military powerhouse. An independent UK? Notsomuch.

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Ruth Davidson resigned as head of the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party today. This puts the the dozen Scottish seats the Tories won in the last general election very much in doubt, which places the makeup of Parliament very much in doubt. This also paves the way for a Scottish Independence vote.

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

A court in Scotland refused to immediately block the prorogation of Parliament, but will have a full hearing next week. Another case will be heard in Northern Ireland as well. This will all end up in the UK version of the Supreme Court. Former Tory Prime Minister John Major will be joining the court action to prevent the prorogation. Former Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that after talks with several members of EU leadership, he believes the EU will unilaterally withdraw the 31 October deadline which will allow the UK more time to reach a deal (or come to its senses and revoke article 50). That would elevate the Brexit Party to a serious threat to Boris Johnson and make the inevitable general election very interesting.

Hard to believe this was all supposed to be done last March...

ETA: A poll on Scottish independence returned a 46-43% plurality in favor. It is the first poll in favor since before Theresa May became Prime Minister. Noteworthy that the poll did not include 16 and 17-year olds, who will be able to vote in the referendum and are in an age group that strongly favors independence. The referendum can be called as soon as next year.

[Kepler]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Former Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that after talks with several members of EU leadership, he believes the EU will unilaterally withdraw the 31 October deadline which will allow the UK more time to reach a deal (or come to its senses and revoke article 50).

Is there any reason to believe that? Seems to me the EU has said "no means no" about as clearly as one can.

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Is there any reason to believe that? Seems to me the EU has said "no means no" about as clearly as one can.

The EU doesn't want a no-deal.
The EU considers Northern Ireland and Scotland part of its domain and doesn't want to abandon those citizens.
Eliminating the deadline would be a terrific way for the EU to play dirty in the UK's elections. It would be incredibly risky - Prime Minister Farage? Or it could be very rewarding - a PM from the Lib Dems or a Labour rep more Euro-friendly than Jeremy Corbyn? Farage and company have made no secret that the Brexit members of the EU Parliament plan to disrupt business in Brussels as much as they can until the UK is gone; this gives the EU a chance to return the favor.

I think the business interests will whisper (bellow?) in Macron's ear and convince him to go along with this. Business HATES the prospect of a no-deal even more than the governments do.

[Kepler]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

The EU doesn't want a no-deal.
The EU considers Northern Ireland and Scotland part of its domain and doesn't want to abandon those citizens.
Eliminating the deadline would be a terrific way for the EU to play dirty in the UK's elections. It would be incredibly risky - Prime Minister Farage? Or it could be very rewarding - a PM from the Lib Dems or a Labour rep more Euro-friendly than Jeremy Corbyn? Farage and company have made no secret that the Brexit members of the EU Parliament plan to disrupt business in Brussels as much as they can until the UK is gone; this gives the EU a chance to return the favor.

I think the business interests will whisper (bellow?) in Macron's ear and convince him to go along with this. Business HATES the prospect of a no-deal even more than the governments do.

It might be better in the long run to let the animals have their way and stand back while the place burns. The morons have to be stopped, there as well as here. Just as Dump is in a way a blessing because when fascism finally did arrive in the US it came wrapped in a diaper and carrying a rattle, Johnson/UKIP/Brexit seem like the perfect characters to get flushed down the drain when even the dumbest Brit can see what his little tantrum cost.

And yeah, I know full well the fascists there and here will go to their graves without learning a thing. That's a given. I'm thinking about the lofo morons who were "just havin' a little giggle." Here, have the insolvency of your stupid island as a parting gift. Consider it severance pay for the Empire's rape of the planet for 150 years.

And don't worry. We're next.

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

It might be better in the long run to let the animals have their way and stand back while the place burns. The morons have to be stopped, there as well as here. Just as Dump is in a way a blessing because when fascism finally did arrive in the US it came wrapped in a diaper and carrying a rattle, Johnson/UKIP/Brexit seem like the perfect characters to get flushed down the drain when even the dumbest Brit can see what his little tantrum cost.

And yeah, I know full well the fascists there and here will go to their graves without learning a thing. That's a given. I'm thinking about the lofo morons who were "just havin' a little giggle." Here, have the insolvency of your stupid island as a parting gift. Consider it severance pay for the Empire's rape of the planet for 150 years.

And don't worry. We're next.

I think Europe is more than willing to cut off Scotland and let the rest of the island sink (sorry Wales). I also think we've all totally missed how much the Europeans see Northern Ireland as part of Ireland, and those citizens are essentially part of the EU. I know the political reality is that right now they're part of the UK but it's only a matter of time before the Unionists are a minority and Ireland is reunited. Aside from the Good Friday Agreement (which is a legal peace treaty no matter how much Nigel et al want to pretend it isn't) those people are Europeans and the EU is not going to desert them.

England raped the planet for 400 years. We have raped it for the last century or so. The bill is coming due for both of us.

[MissThundercat]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Now Boris is saying he'll ignore MPs if they vote to block no-deal Brexit.

Do you want an early election? Because that's how you get an early election.

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Now Boris is saying he'll ignore MPs if they vote to block no-deal Brexit.

Do you want an early election? Because that's how you get an early election.

He wants an early election. As outlined before, if he can convince the Brexit party and supporters that he is going to (or has) push(ed) the UK out of the EU the Tories win and he remains PM. Subsequent to what I wrote previously, the Brexit Party has said it will not field candidates in the election as long as Boris stays the course. Without any opposition on the right, the Tories might get 350-400 seats as a resurgent Lib Dems party and Labour split the vote. That will more than make up for the loss of the Scottish seats that almost assuredly will flip back to the opposition. This is all going perfectly for Boris. Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP and the non-bat**** insane faction of the Conservative Party better not be waiting for the buffoon to goof it up. He's been planning this for years. He isn't likely to blow it.

[mookie1995]

He wants an early election. As outlined before, if he can convince the Brexit party and supporters that he is going to (or has) push(ed) the UK out of the EU the Tories win and he remains PM. Subsequent to what I wrote previously, the Brexit Party has said it will not field candidates in the election as long as Boris stays the course. Without any opposition on the right, the Tories might get 350-400 seats as a resurgent Lib Dems party and Labour split the vote. That will more than make up for the loss of the Scottish seats that almost assuredly will flip back to the opposition. This is all going perfectly for Boris. Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP and the non-bat**** insane faction of the Conservative Party better not be waiting for the buffoon to goof it up. He's been planning this for years. He isn't likely to blow it.

they need to stick together and tell that rouge european nation to f off as the euros try to break the good friday treaty between IRE and NIR

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

The government is now in the minority

Conservative MP Phillip Lee has defected to the Liberal Democrats ahead of a showdown between Boris Johnson and Tory rebels over Brexit.

Dr Lee, the MP for Bracknell, took his seat on the opposition benches as the PM addressed the Commons.

His defection means that Boris Johnson no longer has a working majority in the Commons.

The opposition now has a combined 320 votes and the Tories/DUP 319.

Amid angry exchanges during the PM's statement on last month's G7 summit, Jeremy Corbyn urged the PM to "reflect on his choice of language" to describe the rebels' bill.

The Labour leader said the UK was "not at war with Europe" and it was a no-deal exit which would see the UK "surrender" jobs, employment standards and social protections.

"His is a government with no mandate, no morals and, as of today, no majority," he added.

Tory rebel Oliver Letwin is scheduled to make a motion for emergency debate within the hour of this writing. If successful there will be debate followed by a vote to extend the deadline to 2020.

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

If you're interested in watching the debate

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

One of the signs of how absurd this all is: Winston Churchill's grandson, Nick Soames, has been a Tory MP since 1983. He is likely to be kicked out of the party before the night is through.

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Parliament votes 328-301 to take control of the schedule tomorrow. There will be a vote to force the PM - in writing - to request an extension from the EU to 31 January. There may also be a vote to make no-deal (again) illegal. Boris Johnson responds by tabling a motion for a new election. Corbyn says he welcomes it - after they've voted on tomorrow's agenda.

The British certainly can do fireworks!

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

One of the signs of how absurd this all is: Winston Churchill's grandson, Nick Soames, has been a Tory MP since 1983. He is likely to be kicked out of the party before the night is through.

21 MPs have been kicked out of the Tory party tonight, including Soames, Sir Oliver Letwin, Kenneth Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Phillip Hammond and Rory Stewart.