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2016 WCHA Offseason; It's All Over, Save Ferris

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  • Re: 2016 WCHA Offseason; It's All Over, Save Ferris

    Originally posted by gfmorris View Post
    It's an exercise for the interested writer (i.e. me) to look at the last four seasons for each of the ten schools and see how much better this makes their travel. I think that all of the WCHA schools will be fine with it; Bemidji can pick up NC games with MN schools and NoDak, and UAH just lives this reality. But I can do a weighted miles traveled and do it that way, knowing that longer trips are flights, more expensive, etc. I can probably set up a cutoff point for that.
    I haven't looked at what the NU/RMU/RIT triad lose in a potential conference switch, but I'll do that. The changes for the seven WCHA schools left if worse turns to worst are pretty stark:

    Team | Average trip length over the last four seasons | Average trip length in this fantasy scenario
    UAH: 1289, 742
    BSU: 885, 673
    BGSU: 993, 371
    FSU: 868, 341
    LSSU: 873, 377
    MTU: 810, 425
    NMU: 1267, 359

    Note that these are somewhat skewed by the fact that UAH, BGSU, NMU, MTU, FSU, and BSU have already done the Alaska double twice, while LSSU's turn through the rotation isn't due for another two years. I haven't figured out the periodicity by which you rotate through all the different pairings, so I cheated and just mapped the new outliers (UAH, BSU) in for the old, swapped RMU in with BG, and treated NU-RIT as a horizontal pair like BSU-MSU was.

    There are 45 travel combinations in any 10-team league: ten teams, nine opponents, divided by two opponents per game. You can look at the trip possibilities for each league combination and get the following counts based on the length at which a bus trip becomes a flight:

    400 Miles: 14 bus trips, 31 flights now, compared to 20 and 25 in CCHA Lite/2.0
    500 Miles: 19 and 26, 26 and 19
    600 Miles: 22 and 23, 33 and 12

    Now, even this formula has UAH flying everywhere but Bowling Green and Robert Morris, but UAH would bus pretty much anywhere —*probably even to Rochester. UAH bused to SLU once.

    I'll write about this in a new spot in the next day or two, maybe after I've had time to look up what the costs would be for the new schools.

    And again, Alaska and Mankato fans, please know this: I like your schools, I hope to visit them all very soon, and I want you to be in the WCHA for decades to come. But I work ISS flight operations for a daily living, and I know the power of having Plans B, C, and Y.

    GFM
    Geof F. Morris
    UAH BSE MAE 2002
    UAHHockey.com

    Comment


    • Originally posted by gfmorris View Post
      I haven't looked at what the NU/RMU/RIT triad lose in a potential conference switch, but I'll do that. The changes for the seven WCHA schools left if worse turns to worst are pretty stark:

      Team | Average trip length over the last four seasons | Average trip length in this fantasy scenario
      UAH: 1289, 742
      BSU: 885, 673
      BGSU: 993, 371
      FSU: 868, 341
      LSSU: 873, 377
      MTU: 810, 425
      NMU: 1267, 359

      Note that these are somewhat skewed by the fact that UAH, BGSU, NMU, MTU, FSU, and BSU have already done the Alaska double twice, while LSSU's turn through the rotation isn't due for another two years. I haven't figured out the periodicity by which you rotate through all the different pairings, so I cheated and just mapped the new outliers (UAH, BSU) in for the old, swapped RMU in with BG, and treated NU-RIT as a horizontal pair like BSU-MSU was.

      There are 45 travel combinations in any 10-team league: ten teams, nine opponents, divided by two opponents per game. You can look at the trip possibilities for each league combination and get the following counts based on the length at which a bus trip becomes a flight:

      400 Miles: 14 bus trips, 31 flights now, compared to 20 and 25 in CCHA Lite/2.0
      500 Miles: 19 and 26, 26 and 19
      600 Miles: 22 and 23, 33 and 12

      Now, even this formula has UAH flying everywhere but Bowling Green and Robert Morris, but UAH would bus pretty much anywhere —*probably even to Rochester. UAH bused to SLU once.

      I'll write about this in a new spot in the next day or two, maybe after I've had time to look up what the costs would be for the new schools.

      And again, Alaska and Mankato fans, please know this: I like your schools, I hope to visit them all very soon, and I want you to be in the WCHA for decades to come. But I work ISS flight operations for a daily living, and I know the power of having Plans B, C, and Y.

      GFM
      Last year BSU flew to AK and UAH. The rest were long bus rides.
      CCT '77 & '78
      4 kids
      5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
      1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

      ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
      - Benjamin Franklin

      Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

      I want to live forever. So far, so good.

      Comment


      • Re: 2016 WCHA Offseason; It's All Over, Save Ferris

        NCHC sez no to expansion: https://***********/TheNCHC/status/771060164476538880

        GFM
        Geof F. Morris
        UAH BSE MAE 2002
        UAHHockey.com

        Comment


        • Re: 2016 WCHA Offseason; It's All Over, Save Ferris

          Now is when the whole ASU things gets interesting.

          Comment


          • Re: 2016 WCHA Offseason; It's All Over, Save Ferris

            Originally posted by purpleinnebraska View Post
            Now is when the whole ASU things gets interesting.
            From a (like) school size perspective, the B1G made the most sense for ASU. From a geographic perspective, the NCHC made the most sense. It looks like they are being turned down by both, probably due to their arena (lack thereof) issue. The WCHA may take them, despite the arena issue, but it may depend upon if ASU will subsidize travel. If the WCHA doesn't take them, they can try and survive as an independent for a couple of seasons until they solve their arena issue and then reapply to the B1G and/or NCHC. Personally, I don't think the WCHA would be anything more than a temporary solution for ASU.

            Comment


            • Re: 2016 WCHA Offseason; It's All Over, Save Ferris

              Originally posted by Bill View Post
              Personally, I don't think the WCHA would be anything more than a temporary solution for ASU.
              There's some likelihood that the WCHA is a temporary solution for all it's current members.

              Comment


              • Re: 2016 WCHA Offseason; It's All Over, Save Ferris

                The WCHA was courting them pretty heavily. Surprisingly, at least to me, was the fact the the president of BGSU was one of the people doing the courting. I imagine the name recognition that ASU brings is a likely factor in that. Their name may bring more bodies into the WCHA arenas to watch the games.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by BGFan View Post
                  The WCHA was courting them pretty heavily. Surprisingly, at least to me, was the fact the the president of BGSU was one of the people doing the courting. I imagine the name recognition that ASU brings is a likely factor in that. Their name may bring more bodies into the WCHA arenas to watch the games.
                  Would you rather have tOSU, WMU and Miami in your barn over ASU, BSU, and Mankato?

                  Rivalries sell tickets.
                  CCT '77 & '78
                  4 kids
                  5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
                  1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

                  ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
                  - Benjamin Franklin

                  Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

                  I want to live forever. So far, so good.

                  Comment


                  • Re: 2016 WCHA Offseason; It's All Over, Save Ferris

                    Originally posted by joecct View Post
                    Would you rather have tOSU, WMU and Miami in your barn over ASU, BSU, and Mankato?

                    Rivalries sell tickets.
                    Back in the old WCHA days, during Sauer's flagging years, when I was in school, UW wasn't much of a draw at SCSU because UW's team just wasn't very good. People want to show up for rivalries and top end opponents. Either feed the crowds to satiate our more base pleasure of hate or give us some top talent to watch.
                    "The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." George Orwell, 1984

                    "One does not simply walk into Mordor. Its Black Gates are guarded by more than just Orcs. There is evil there that does not sleep, and the Great Eye is ever watchful. It is a barren wasteland, riddled with fire and ash and dust, the very air you breathe is a poisonous fume." Boromir

                    "Good news! We have a delivery." Professor Farnsworth

                    Comment


                    • Re: 2016 WCHA Offseason; It's All Over, Save Ferris

                      Originally posted by BGFan View Post
                      The WCHA was courting them pretty heavily. Surprisingly, at least to me, was the fact the the president of BGSU was one of the people doing the courting. I imagine the name recognition that ASU brings is a likely factor in that. Their name may bring more bodies into the WCHA arenas to watch the games.
                      If the ASU brings in fans based on name recognition then you need to take your fans to an educational session on cawlige hawky

                      Comment


                      • Re: 2016 WCHA Offseason; It's All Over, Save Ferris

                        Originally posted by giwan View Post
                        If the ASU brings in fans based on name recognition then you need to take your fans to an educational session on cawlige hawky
                        If a bunch of people who have never seen a cawlige hawky game show up at the Ice Arena with AFC* in hand only because they've heard of ASU, then thank god for ignorant fans with disposable income. Anything that puts butts in seats is a positive.


                        *AFC - Actual Freaking Cash

                        Comment


                        • Re: 2016 WCHA Offseason; It's All Over, Save Ferris

                          Originally posted by Bill View Post
                          Personally, I don't think the WCHA would be anything more than a temporary solution for ASU.
                          The WCHA would write a healthy exit fee into the contract (I'm sure MSU would've had to pay one; who knows if the Alaska schools would be forced to do so in the unfortunate event that they leave D-I hockey), so getting them in the door holds them down and helps keep them going. If they flourish, they'll be able to pay it, and the league will take that money. If not, well, okay.

                          ETA: Schlossman indicates that the NCHC exit fee is $1.5MM, 3x the expansion fee.

                          GFM
                          Geof F. Morris
                          UAH BSE MAE 2002
                          UAHHockey.com

                          Comment


                          • Re: 2016 WCHA Offseason; It's All Over, Save Ferris

                            Originally posted by gfmorris View Post
                            The WCHA would write a healthy exit fee into the contract (I'm sure MSU would've had to pay one; who knows if the Alaska schools would be forced to do so in the unfortunate event that they leave D-I hockey)

                            GFM
                            Only someone stupid enough to sign a post with his initials when there's a username already associated with his post and who also has his unfortunately misspelled name in his freaking signature line would think that UAA or UAF would pay some exit fee when they folded their programs. Who's gonna force them? LOL ... omg.

                            LOL. Stupidest thing said on this forum all effing month.

                            shut up once.

                            Comment


                            • Re: 2016 WCHA Offseason; It's All Over, Save Ferris

                              Originally posted by uaafanblog View Post
                              Only someone stupid enough to sign a post with his initials when there's a username already associated with his post and who also has his unfortunately misspelled name in his freaking signature line would think that UAA or UAF would pay some exit fee when they folded their programs. Who's gonna force them? LOL ... omg.
                              Contracts matter, and conference membership is a contract. In a fair world, there absolutely shouldn't be a termination fee if the worst happens! But that's not guaranteed to be the way it would go down.

                              GFM
                              Geof F. Morris
                              UAH BSE MAE 2002
                              UAHHockey.com

                              Comment


                              • Re: 2016 WCHA Offseason; It's All Over, Save Ferris

                                Originally posted by gfmorris View Post
                                Contracts matter, and conference membership is a contract. In a fair world, there absolutely shouldn't be a termination fee if the worst happens! But that's not guaranteed to be the way it would go down.GFM
                                Would you write in a specific termination fee starting with ASU of a much higher value? Part of the agreement to entrance along with other possible requirements? Apply to all? Anyone think the NCHC termination fee is the main reason some schools have not bolted already?

                                Comment

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