Re: 2016 WCHA Offseason; It's All Over, Save Ferris
I haven't looked at what the NU/RMU/RIT triad lose in a potential conference switch, but I'll do that. The changes for the seven WCHA schools left if worse turns to worst are pretty stark:
Team | Average trip length over the last four seasons | Average trip length in this fantasy scenario
UAH: 1289, 742
BSU: 885, 673
BGSU: 993, 371
FSU: 868, 341
LSSU: 873, 377
MTU: 810, 425
NMU: 1267, 359
Note that these are somewhat skewed by the fact that UAH, BGSU, NMU, MTU, FSU, and BSU have already done the Alaska double twice, while LSSU's turn through the rotation isn't due for another two years. I haven't figured out the periodicity by which you rotate through all the different pairings, so I cheated and just mapped the new outliers (UAH, BSU) in for the old, swapped RMU in with BG, and treated NU-RIT as a horizontal pair like BSU-MSU was.
There are 45 travel combinations in any 10-team league: ten teams, nine opponents, divided by two opponents per game. You can look at the trip possibilities for each league combination and get the following counts based on the length at which a bus trip becomes a flight:
400 Miles: 14 bus trips, 31 flights now, compared to 20 and 25 in CCHA Lite/2.0
500 Miles: 19 and 26, 26 and 19
600 Miles: 22 and 23, 33 and 12
Now, even this formula has UAH flying everywhere but Bowling Green and Robert Morris, but UAH would bus pretty much anywhere —*probably even to Rochester. UAH bused to SLU once.
I'll write about this in a new spot in the next day or two, maybe after I've had time to look up what the costs would be for the new schools.
And again, Alaska and Mankato fans, please know this: I like your schools, I hope to visit them all very soon, and I want you to be in the WCHA for decades to come. But I work ISS flight operations for a daily living, and I know the power of having Plans B, C, and Y.
GFM
Originally posted by gfmorris
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Team | Average trip length over the last four seasons | Average trip length in this fantasy scenario
UAH: 1289, 742
BSU: 885, 673
BGSU: 993, 371
FSU: 868, 341
LSSU: 873, 377
MTU: 810, 425
NMU: 1267, 359
Note that these are somewhat skewed by the fact that UAH, BGSU, NMU, MTU, FSU, and BSU have already done the Alaska double twice, while LSSU's turn through the rotation isn't due for another two years. I haven't figured out the periodicity by which you rotate through all the different pairings, so I cheated and just mapped the new outliers (UAH, BSU) in for the old, swapped RMU in with BG, and treated NU-RIT as a horizontal pair like BSU-MSU was.
There are 45 travel combinations in any 10-team league: ten teams, nine opponents, divided by two opponents per game. You can look at the trip possibilities for each league combination and get the following counts based on the length at which a bus trip becomes a flight:
400 Miles: 14 bus trips, 31 flights now, compared to 20 and 25 in CCHA Lite/2.0
500 Miles: 19 and 26, 26 and 19
600 Miles: 22 and 23, 33 and 12
Now, even this formula has UAH flying everywhere but Bowling Green and Robert Morris, but UAH would bus pretty much anywhere —*probably even to Rochester. UAH bused to SLU once.
I'll write about this in a new spot in the next day or two, maybe after I've had time to look up what the costs would be for the new schools.
And again, Alaska and Mankato fans, please know this: I like your schools, I hope to visit them all very soon, and I want you to be in the WCHA for decades to come. But I work ISS flight operations for a daily living, and I know the power of having Plans B, C, and Y.
GFM
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