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Thread: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

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    2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

    I just completed an analysis of the scores from all NCAA D1 games (exhibitions, games against D3 or club teams NOT included) this season through play of 1/25/2016.

    I counted shoot-outs and those silly 3-3 OTs at ties.

    Teams that score ZERO goals in a game have a record of 0-115-8 Winning Percentage .0325
    Teams that score ONE goal are 16-174-68 (.1938)
    Teams that score TWO goals are 60-200-50 (.2742)
    Teams that score THREE goals are 158-90-54 (.6126)
    Teams that score FOUR goals are 145-32-16 (.7927)
    Teams that score FIVE goals are 122-4-12 (.9275)
    Teams that score SIX goals are 68-2-4 (.9459)
    Teams that score SEVEN goals are 34-1-0 (.9714)
    Teams that score EIGHT goals are 11-0-0 (1.000)
    Teams that score NINE goals are 3-0-0 (1.000)
    Nobody has scored exactly TEN.
    Team that scores ELEVEN goals is 1-0-0 (1.000)

    The difference between 2 and 3 REALLY blew me away.
    Last edited by Freddie; 01-27-2016 at 07:27 AM.
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    Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

    Who scored 7 and lost?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tipsy McStagger View Post
    Who scored 7 and lost?
    Good question. I assumed it was Michigan, so I checked their schedule. It's not them, but they are 1-0-3 when giving up 5 or more goals, which is a pretty unusual stat.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tipsy McStagger View Post
    Who scored 7 and lost?
    Mercyhurst beat Colgate 9-7 on October 4th.

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    Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

    The ELEVEN goal game was St Cloud over Western Michigan 11-2 on Nov 14.
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    Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

    Quote Originally Posted by Freddie View Post
    The ELEVEN goal game was St Cloud over Western Michigan 11-2 on Nov 14.
    It was actually 11-1.

    And I too would have assumed the team that scored 7 and lost was Michigan.

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    Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

    Pretty interesting stuff. I have been tracking stats for BC performance in the NCAAs under York for quite a while and always found a very interesting conclusion. The first team to get to 3 goals almost always wins.

    In 46 games:
    - A team failed to get to three goals only 7 times.
    - In the other 39 games, only twice has the first team to reach 3 goals lost the game
    - So of the applicable 39 games, about a 95% winning percentage (37-2)
    Quote Originally Posted by Greg Ambrose on 3/7/2010 View Post
    The fact that you BC fans revel in the superiority of your team in an admittedly weak league leads me to believe you will be more sorely disappointed when the end comes than we will.

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    Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Papagiorgio View Post
    Pretty interesting stuff. I have been tracking stats for BC performance in the NCAAs under York for quite a while and always found a very interesting conclusion. The first team to get to 3 goals almost always wins.

    In 46 games:
    - A team failed to get to three goals only 7 times.
    - In the other 39 games, only twice has the first team to reach 3 goals lost the game
    - So of the applicable 39 games, about a 95% winning percentage (37-2)
    Nick,

    How many times did both teams score three goals and what was the record then?

    Sean
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    Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sean Pickett View Post
    Nick,

    How many times did both teams score three goals and what was the record then?

    Sean
    Hmmm. I'll have to consult with my database!
    Quote Originally Posted by Greg Ambrose on 3/7/2010 View Post
    The fact that you BC fans revel in the superiority of your team in an admittedly weak league leads me to believe you will be more sorely disappointed when the end comes than we will.

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    2009 NCAA Champions Sean Pickett's Avatar
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    Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

    Quote Originally Posted by Freddie View Post
    I just completed an analysis of the scores from all NCAA D1 games (exhibitions, games against D3 or club teams NOT included) this season through play of 1/25/2016.

    ...

    The difference between 2 and 3 REALLY blew me away.
    With scoring down from the past that makes sense, but as you point out the divide between 2 and 3 goals is striking. Have you looked at past seasons, say maybe back in 1990-91, or even 2000-01? It would be interesting to see what the break point was for those, or other seasons.

    Your post made me interested in seeing how BU has done historically so I looked at what their and their opponents' all-time records were. It appears that historically the break point for BU has been 4 goals:

    goals scored - record - winning percentage
    0 - 0-72-3 - 0.020
    1 - 16-185-17 - 0.112
    2 - 69-257-39 - 0.242
    3 - 164-169-45 - 0.493
    4 - 262-103-33 - 0.700
    5 - 293-51-14 - 0.838
    6 - 232-22-4 - 0.907
    7 - 164-4-4 - 0.965
    8 - 108-1-0 - 0.991
    9 - 75-1-0 - 0.987
    10+ - 123-0-0 - 1.000

    However, BU's opponents have done worse, and their break point has been 5 goals:

    goals scored - record - winning percentage
    0 - 0-157-3 - 0.009
    1 - 9-329-17 - 0.049
    2 - 49-398-39 - 0.141
    3 - 155-312-45 - 0.347
    4 - 162-188-33 - 0.466
    5 - 172-83-14 - 0.665
    6 - 122-30-4 - 0.795
    7 - 83-10-4 - 0.876
    8 - 54-2-0 - 0.964
    9 - 24-0-0 - 1.000
    10+ - 34-0-0 - 1.000

    Without doing more research to I don't think too much can be made of the data. However, it appears to me that the better teams will have better records no matter how many goals they score, as they will more often than not give up fewer goals.

    Sean
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    Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Papagiorgio View Post
    Pretty interesting stuff. I have been tracking stats for BC performance in the NCAAs under York for quite a while and always found a very interesting conclusion. The first team to get to 3 goals almost always wins.

    In 46 games:
    - A team failed to get to three goals only 7 times.
    - In the other 39 games, only twice has the first team to reach 3 goals lost the game
    - So of the applicable 39 games, about a 95% winning percentage (37-2)
    I have looked at BU's performance in the NCAA's since the tournament began. BU has played 75 NCAA games, 8 which were consolations games. Leaving out those games there are 67 games:
    - only twice did neither team score three goals
    - in the remaining 65 games 34 times one of the teams failed to score three goals
    - in the remaining 31 games the first team to score the third goal has a record of 23-8, a 74.2% winning percentage
    - in the 65 games with a team scoring 3 or more goals the first team to score the third goal has a record of 57-8, an 87.7% winning percentage

    Sean
    Last edited by Sean Pickett; 01-27-2016 at 07:34 PM.
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    Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Papagiorgio View Post
    Pretty interesting stuff. I have been tracking stats for BC performance in the NCAAs under York for quite a while and always found a very interesting conclusion. The first team to get to 3 goals almost always wins.

    In 46 games:
    - A team failed to get to three goals only 7 times.
    - In the other 39 games, only twice has the first team to reach 3 goals lost the game
    - So of the applicable 39 games, about a 95% winning percentage (37-2)
    Quote Originally Posted by Sean Pickett View Post
    Nick,

    How many times did both teams score three goals and what was the record then?

    Sean
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Papagiorgio View Post
    Hmmm. I'll have to consult with my database!
    Nevermind, I looked myself. Of the 39 games both teams scored three or more goals in ten of them. So, since only 2 lost, the record is 8-2, an 80% winning percentage.

    Sean
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    Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

    Ok - you're a coach and you look at the data Freddie compiled. Is your game plan
    1. Hold them to 2 or less
    or
    2. Score at least 3 goals.

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    Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

    Quote Originally Posted by joecct View Post
    Ok - you're a coach and you look at the data Freddie compiled. Is your game plan
    1. Hold them to 2 or less
    or
    2. Score at least 3 goals.
    Both

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    Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

    Quote Originally Posted by joecct View Post
    Ok - you're a coach and you look at the data Freddie compiled. Is your game plan
    1. Hold them to 2 or less
    or
    2. Score at least 3 goals.
    2b. Put up a 3 on the scoreboard before the other team.
    Quote Originally Posted by Greg Ambrose on 3/7/2010 View Post
    The fact that you BC fans revel in the superiority of your team in an admittedly weak league leads me to believe you will be more sorely disappointed when the end comes than we will.

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    Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

    Quote Originally Posted by joecct View Post
    Ok - you're a coach and you look at the data Freddie compiled. Is your game plan
    1. Hold them to 2 or less
    or
    2. Score at least 3 goals.
    2b is a lot more entertaining, but coaches view 2a as easier to control and achieve, so guess which one they do

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    Quote Originally Posted by purpleinnebraska View Post
    2b is a lot more entertaining, but coaches view 2a as easier to control and achieve, so guess which one they do
    Or as one coach told me "1st to 3 wins"

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    Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sean Pickett View Post
    Nevermind, I looked myself. Of the 39 games both teams scored three or more goals in ten of them. So, since only 2 lost, the record is 8-2, an 80% winning percentage.

    Sean
    That's correct.
    Quote Originally Posted by Greg Ambrose on 3/7/2010 View Post
    The fact that you BC fans revel in the superiority of your team in an admittedly weak league leads me to believe you will be more sorely disappointed when the end comes than we will.

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    Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

    Just for the sake of comparison, I went back to the 1998-99 season, and ran the same numbers to the same point in the season, week #17.

    Team scores ZERO 0-58-0 (.0000) That's right, not a single scoreless tie.
    Team scores ONE 9-175-24 (.1009)
    Team scores TWO 53-149-28 (.2913)
    Team scores THREE 108-110-32 (.4960) WOW, 3 was still sub 500
    Team scores FOUR 121-46-14 (.7072)
    Team scores FIVE 107-15-10 (.8485)
    Team scores SIX 81-2-2 (.9765)
    Team scores SEVEN 41-0-2 (.9767)
    Team scores EIGHT 24-0-0 (1.000)
    Team Scores NINE 7-0-0 (1.000)
    Team scores TEN 1-0-0 (1.000)
    Team scores ELEVEN 2-0-0 (1.000)
    Team scores TWELVE 1-0-0 (1.000)
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    Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

    Quote Originally Posted by Freddie View Post
    Just for the sake of comparison, I went back to the 1998-99 season, and ran the same numbers to the same point in the season, week #17.

    Team scores ZERO 0-58-0 (.0000) That's right, not a single scoreless tie.
    Team scores ONE 9-175-24 (.1009)
    Team scores TWO 53-149-28 (.2913)
    Team scores THREE 108-110-32 (.4960) WOW, 3 was still sub 500
    Team scores FOUR 121-46-14 (.7072)
    Team scores FIVE 107-15-10 (.8485)
    Team scores SIX 81-2-2 (.9765)
    Team scores SEVEN 41-0-2 (.9767)
    Team scores EIGHT 24-0-0 (1.000)
    Team Scores NINE 7-0-0 (1.000)
    Team scores TEN 1-0-0 (1.000)
    Team scores ELEVEN 2-0-0 (1.000)
    Team scores TWELVE 1-0-0 (1.000)
    Thanks for doing this Freddie.

    Sean
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