2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

[purpleinnebraska]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

Ok - you're a coach and you look at the data Freddie compiled. Is your game plan
1. Hold them to 2 or less
or
2. Score at least 3 goals.

2b is a lot more entertaining, but coaches view 2a as easier to control and achieve, so guess which one they do

[joecct]

2b is a lot more entertaining, but coaches view 2a as easier to control and achieve, so guess which one they do

Or as one coach told me "1st to 3 wins"

[Nick Papagiorgio]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

Nevermind, I looked myself. Of the 39 games both teams scored three or more goals in ten of them. So, since only 2 lost, the record is 8-2, an 80% winning percentage.

Sean

That's correct.

[Freddie]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

Just for the sake of comparison, I went back to the 1998-99 season, and ran the same numbers to the same point in the season, week #17.

Team scores ZERO 0-58-0 (.0000) That's right, not a single scoreless tie.
Team scores ONE 9-175-24 (.1009)
Team scores TWO 53-149-28 (.2913)
Team scores THREE 108-110-32 (.4960) WOW, 3 was still sub 500
Team scores FOUR 121-46-14 (.7072)
Team scores FIVE 107-15-10 (.8485)
Team scores SIX 81-2-2 (.9765)
Team scores SEVEN 41-0-2 (.9767)
Team scores EIGHT 24-0-0 (1.000)
Team Scores NINE 7-0-0 (1.000)
Team scores TEN 1-0-0 (1.000)
Team scores ELEVEN 2-0-0 (1.000)
Team scores TWELVE 1-0-0 (1.000)

[Sean Pickett]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

Just for the sake of comparison, I went back to the 1998-99 season, and ran the same numbers to the same point in the season, week #17.

Team scores ZERO 0-58-0 (.0000) That's right, not a single scoreless tie.
Team scores ONE 9-175-24 (.1009)
Team scores TWO 53-149-28 (.2913)
Team scores THREE 108-110-32 (.4960) WOW, 3 was still sub 500
Team scores FOUR 121-46-14 (.7072)
Team scores FIVE 107-15-10 (.8485)
Team scores SIX 81-2-2 (.9765)
Team scores SEVEN 41-0-2 (.9767)
Team scores EIGHT 24-0-0 (1.000)
Team Scores NINE 7-0-0 (1.000)
Team scores TEN 1-0-0 (1.000)
Team scores ELEVEN 2-0-0 (1.000)
Team scores TWELVE 1-0-0 (1.000)

Thanks for doing this Freddie.

Sean

[Sean Pickett]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

Pretty interesting stuff. I have been tracking stats for BC performance in the NCAAs under York for quite a while and always found a very interesting conclusion. The first team to get to 3 goals almost always wins.

In 46 games:
- A team failed to get to three goals only 7 times.
- In the other 39 games, only twice has the first team to reach 3 goals lost the game
- So of the applicable 39 games, about a 95% winning percentage (37-2)

I decided to see what the numbers are for games played this season.
- I came up with 605 games through Friday in which at least one team scored 3 goals. The first team to score 3 goals has gone 524-37-44 for a 90.2% winning percentage.
- Of those both teams scored at least 3 goals in 177 games. The first team to score 3 goals has gone 96-37-44 for a 66.7% winning percentage.
- Oddly, on Friday there were five games in which both teams scored at least 3 goals and the first team to reach 3 goals went 1-3-1.

Sean

[Sean Pickett]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

I decided to see what the numbers are for games played this season.
- I came up with 605 games through Friday in which at least one team scored 3 goals. The first team to score 3 goals has gone 524-37-44 for a 90.2% winning percentage.
- Of those both teams scored at least 3 goals in 177 games. The first team to score 3 goals has gone 96-37-44 for a 66.7% winning percentage.
- Oddly, on Friday there were five games in which both teams scored at least 3 goals and the first team to reach 3 goals went 1-3-1.

Sean

On Saturday things returned to normal:
- the first team that scored three goals went 14-1-2, an 88.2% winning percentage
- in games both teams scored at least three goals, the first to score 3 went 5-1-2, a 75.0% winning percentage.

For the season the totals improved to:
- when at least one team scored three goals, the first team to score 3 is 538-38-46, a 90.2% winning percentage
- when both teams score 3 goals, the first team to score 3 is 101-38-46, a 67.0% winning percentage

Sean

[Sean Pickett]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

On Sunday:
- the first team that scored three goals went 3-0-0, a 100% winning percentage

For the season the totals improved to:
- when at least one team scored three goals, the first team to score 3 is 541-38-46, a 90.2% winning percentage
- when both teams score 3 goals, the first team to score 3 is 101-38-46, a 67.0% winning percentage

Sean

[Sean Pickett]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

This past week (Monday-Saturday):
- the first team that scored three goals went 34-1-3, a 93.4% winning percentage
- when both teams scored 3 goals, the first team to score 3 went 8-1-3, a 79.2% winning percentage

For the season the totals are:
- when at least one team scored three goals, the first team to score 3 is 575-39-49, a 90.4% winning percentage
- when both teams score 3 goals, the first team to score 3 is 109-39-49, a 67.7% winning percentage

Sean

[Sean Pickett]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

This past week (Sunday-Saturday):
- the first team that scored three goals went 37-1-4, a 92.9% winning percentage
- when both teams scored 3 goals, the first team to score 3 went 8-1-4, a 76.9% winning percentage

For the season the totals are:
- when at least one team scored three goals, the first team to score 3 is 612-40-53, a 90.6% winning percentage
- when both teams score 3 goals, the first team to score 3 is 117-40-53, a 68.3% winning percentage

Sean

[Sean Pickett]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

I just completed an analysis of the scores from all NCAA D1 games (exhibitions, games against D3 or club teams NOT included) this season through play of 1/25/2016.

I counted shoot-outs and those silly 3-3 OTs at ties.

Teams that score ZERO goals in a game have a record of 0-115-8 Winning Percentage .0325
Teams that score ONE goal are 16-174-68 (.1938)
Teams that score TWO goals are 60-200-50 (.2742)
Teams that score THREE goals are 158-90-54 (.6126)
Teams that score FOUR goals are 145-32-16 (.7927)
Teams that score FIVE goals are 122-4-12 (.9275)
Teams that score SIX goals are 68-2-4 (.9459)
Teams that score SEVEN goals are 34-1-0 (.9714)
Teams that score EIGHT goals are 11-0-0 (1.000)
Teams that score NINE goals are 3-0-0 (1.000)
Nobody has scored exactly TEN.
Team that scores ELEVEN goals is 1-0-0 (1.000)

The difference between 2 and 3 REALLY blew me away.

Even though I haven't posted in this thread for some time I continued to track winning percentages for teams that were the first to score their third goal of the game. In fact I am working on tracking more than that. However, first I thought I would update Freddie's stats through the end of the season. Unlike Freddie I included all games vs DI/DII/DIII varsity teams. I also only counted ties once, so my stats show fewer ties.

0 goals - 0-164-4, 0.0119
1 goal - 25-317-39, 0.1168
2 goals - 112-293-42, 0.2975
3 goals - 250-139-37, 0.6303
4 goals - 239-60-11, 0.7887
5 goals - 185-10-7, 0.9332
6 goals - 101-1-2, 0.9808
7 goals - 50-1-0, 0.9804
8 goals - 15-0-0, 1.0000
9 goals - 6-0-0, 1.0000
10 goals - 1-0-0, 1.0000
11 goals - 1-0-0, 1.0000

overall - 985-985-142, 0.5000

Sean

[Sean Pickett]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

Here are some final stats for teams that score their third goal first.

This season DI men's teams played 1127 non-exhibition games against varsity teams. Of those, in 221 games (19.6% of all games) neither team scored three goals, leaving 906 games in which at least one team scored 3 goals. In those game the teams that scored their third goal first had a record of 794-55-57, a 90.8% winning percentage. In only 268 games (23.8% of all games played) did both teams score three goals and in those the teams that scored the third goal first had a record of 156-55-57, a 68.8% winning percentage.

I also looked at all 1230 regular season NHL games this past season. For this comparison I counted shootouts the same as ties. There were 261 games (21.2% of all games) in which neither team scored three goals, leaving 969 games in which at least one team scored 3 goals. In those games the teams that scored their third goal first had a record of 869-68-32, a 91.3% winning percentage. In only 269 games (21.9% of all games played) did both teams score three goals and in those the teams that scored their third goal first had a record of 169-68-32, a 68.8% winning percentage.

I have also combined the stats for DI men and NHL games. This season there were a combined 2357 games, of which in 482 games (20.4% of all games) neither team scored three goals. In the remaining 1875 games in which at least one team scored 3 goals the teams that scored their third goal first had a record of 1663-123-89, a 91.1% winning percentage. In 537 games (22.8% of all games played) both teams score three goals and in those the teams that scored their third goal first had a record of 325-123-89, a 68.8% winning percentage.

For a quick comparison, DI men's teams that scored three or more goals had a record of 848-210-57, a 78.6% winning percentage and NHL team's that scored three or more goals had a record of 924-235-30, a 79.0% winning percentage.

Sean

[purpleinnebraska]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

Here are some final stats for teams that score their third goal first.

This season DI men's teams played 1127 non-exhibition games against varsity teams. Of those, in 221 games (19.6% of all games) neither team scored three goals, leaving 906 games in which at least one team scored 3 goals. In those game the teams that scored their third goal first had a record of 794-55-57, a 90.8% winning percentage. In only 286 games (23.8% of all games played) did both teams score three goals and in those the teams that scored the third goal first had a record of 156-55-57, a 68.8% winning percentage.

I also looked at all 1230 regular season NHL games this past season. For this comparison I counted shootouts the same as ties. There were 261 games (21.2% of all games) in which neither team scored three goals, leaving 969 games in which at least one team scored 3 goals. In those games the teams that scored their third goal first had a record of 869-68-32, a 91.3% winning percentage. In only 269 games (21.9% of all games played) did both teams score three goals and in those the teams that scored their third goal first had a record of 169-68-32, a 68.8% winning percentage.

I have also combined the stats for DI men and NHL games. This season there were a combined 2357 games, of which in 482 games (20.4% of all games) neither team scored three goals. In the remaining 1875 games in which at least one team scored 3 goals the teams that scored their third goal first had a record of 1663-123-89, a 91.1% winning percentage. In 537 games (22.8% of all games played) both teams score three goals and in those the teams that scored their third goal first had a record of 325-123-89, a 68.8% winning percentage.

For a quick comparison, DI men's teams that scored three or more goals had a record of 848-210-57, a 78.6% winning percentage and NHL team's that scored three or more goals had a record of 924-235-30, a 79.0% winning percentage.

Sean

Thanks for the work you put into this! I was discouraged with how low scoring I felt WCHA games were this year, so I decided to compare our conference numbers against your totals and see if we actually were that dull. In 153 WCHA conference matchups (I included conference tournament games), there were 43 games where no one scored 3 goals, versus 110 where at least one team did. This is 28.1% of games of less than 3 versus your figure of 19.6% across college hockey, a number which drops to 18.3% when you remove the WCHA games. That's a pretty big disparity. In addition, 3 goals or more brought a winning percentage of 84.6% in conference play, versus 78.6% across NCAA play. Although not as statistically significant as the other gap, it still means 3 is more than enough in the WCHA. The question is, will the WCHA take steps to address the lack of scoring, or just say, "We have great goaltenders and coaches"? Because I have a hard time believing our goaltenders and coaches are that much better than those in other leagues.

[Sean Pickett]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

Thanks for the work you put into this! I was discouraged with how low scoring I felt WCHA games were this year, so I decided to compare our conference numbers against your totals and see if we actually were that dull. In 153 WCHA conference matchups (I included conference tournament games), there were 43 games where no one scored 3 goals, versus 110 where at least one team did. This is 28.1% of games of less than 3 versus your figure of 19.6% across college hockey, a number which drops to 18.3% when you remove the WCHA games. That's a pretty big disparity. In addition, 3 goals or more brought a winning percentage of 84.6% in conference play, versus 78.6% across NCAA play. Although not as statistically significant as the other gap, it still means 3 is more than enough in the WCHA. The question is, will the WCHA take steps to address the lack of scoring, or just say, "We have great goaltenders and coaches"? Because I have a hard time believing our goaltenders and coaches are that much better than those in other leagues.

I just knew someone would be interested in conference stats. Because of that my workbook tracks all conference/non-conference/conference tournament/NCAA tournament games. However, in looking at such small subsets of data anomalies can and do appear (see below), so I have been researching past seasons as well. I have put a put a workbook on Google Docs with conference and overall data for the past three seasons individually and combined (2013-16).

I’m not looking at average scoring per game, but as I have goal data for every game I added goal information to the workbook I put online. As can be seen the overall goals per game average dipped slightly in 2014-15 but is almost the same this past season as in 2013-14. However, it has dropped in each of the past two seasons in the WCHA, and is down a full half-goal per game by both teams. The ECAC’s three season average is a tick lower than the WCHA’s, but its average went up this past season. Atlantic Hockey’s goal scoring decreased almost as much (0.48) as the WCHA over the past two seasons, but they had a higher average to start. Hockey East’s average has gone up, as has that for non-conference games, but nothing like the B1G, which has seen goal scoring increase close to 2 goals (1.77) per game for both teams. If you like goal scoring the B1G was the league to watch this past season and if you like low scoring games the WCHA was the league to watch this past season.

As can be seen on the 2015-16 sheet the ECAC edged out the WCHA for highest percentage of games with less than 3 goals by either team (42 of 152 vs. 42 of 153). The B1G, with the smallest number of league games by 43, had the lowest percentage of games under 3 goals (5 of 65, just 7.7%). Non-conference games had the second lowest percentage at 14.6% (47 of 321 games), while the NCHC was the only other conference to have less than 20% of league games with less than 3 goals by either team. On the flip-side, with just 23 games out of 153 (15.0%) in which both teams scored 3 goals, the WCHA had the lowest percentage by far among the leagues in that category.

However, in 2013-14 the B1G had the highest percentage of games with less than 3 goals by either team (21 of 65, 32.3% of all games) and the WCHA had 17.8% of games (37 of 152) with less than 3 goals by either team, slightly less than the overall average for that season. And for the 2014-15 season the WCHA had just 18 of 151 games (11.9%) in which both teams scored at least 3 goals. That same season the ECAC had 21 of 154 games (13.6%) in which both teams scored 3 goals and also had 44 of 154 games (28.6%) in which neither scored three goals. As I mentioned before, working with such small data sets (B1G games are less than 6% of all games played in 2015-16, Atlantic Hockey games are less than 16% and the other 4 leagues are each less than 14%) a few games can make a difference.

In regards to winning when being the first to score 3 goals, Atlantic Hockey teams had an abnormally good record, with a 95.0% winning percentage, but it only brought their three season average up to 88.1%. The NCHC likewise had an excellent record, winning 95.6% of such games, but unlike the AH, they have the best three season average at 92.2%. The WCHA edges out Hockey East for the second best conference record over the past three seasons at 91.5%, although non-conference games are slightly higher as 91.7%. The WCHA would likely have a higher average, if not for decreased scoring leading to 10 more games (from 32 to 42) in which neither team scored 3 goals this past season. The only other conference to see an increase in such games was the NCHC, which went from 16 to 18.

Over the past three seasons the average winning percentage for a team that scores 3 goals first is a solid 90.5%. However, when both teams score at least 3 goals the winning percentage drops to just 66.6%, with 63.1% of those winning teams (274 of 434) never losing the lead. That means teams not scoring 3 goals first actually have a winning record (181-160-146, 52.2%) if they are able to tie up the game. Still, with only one team scoring three or more goals in 1923 of 3348 games (57.4%) the past three seasons getting that 3rd goal first appears does appear to be the best path to winning the game.

Sean

[Sean Pickett]

Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

During the Frozen Four championship game ESPN threw out the fact that North Dakota was something like 70-0-5 when leading after two periods over the last three seasons. I decided to see how they had done when scoring 3 goals first over the same period and they have been much better than average, although they did lose a game three seasons ago:
2015-16 - 26-0-2, 0.964 (34-6-4, 0.818 overall)
2014-15 - 25-0-1, 0.981 (29-10-3, 0.726 overall)
2013-14 - 22-1-1, 0.938 (25-14- 3, 0.631 overall)
2013-16 - 73-1-4, 0.962 (88-30-10, 0.727 overall)

I also looked at how BU has done over the same span:
2015-16 - 17-0-2, 0.947 (21-13-5, 0.577 overall)
2014-15 - 23-1-0, 0.958 (28-8-5, 0.744 overall)
2013-14 - 9-0-1, 0.950 (10-21-4, 0.343 overall)
2013-16 - 49-1-3, 0.953 (59-42-14, 0.574)

Interestingly, about 83% of both teams wins came from games in which they scored 3 goals first. If anyone is interested in these stats for a specific team just post what team(s) you are interested in and I'll post them.

Sean