And any other offerings * #
I'm reading this book called "the curious incident with the dog in the nighttime" and the protagonist explains the "Monty Hall Problem". Several thoughts at once:
1. If Let's Make a Deal had offered this scenario to its contestants a dozen or so times, it would lose its insurers and sponsors.
2. I have a healthier respect for the field of statistics and probability
3. PhD's can be pretty lazy
and more besides.
The answer makes no intuitive sense. But s&p is impersonal like all the other maths, and doesn't care about human reason .
Goes like this:
You're on a game show where there are 3 doors presented. A car is behind one door, and behind each of the other doors is a goat.
After you pick a door, and before the host (who knows where the car is) opens your chosen door, he reveals what's behind another door - a goat. He offers you the choice of sticking with your first choice, or switching your choice to the other unrevealed door. What choice gives you the better chance of winning the car?