2011-2012 North Dakota Offseason Thread

[goldy_331]

Re: 2011-2012 North Dakota Offseason Thread

In the Regional thread I never did get a chance to compliment the UND cheer chicks. They were not at all bad on the eyes and they could skate a little. I assume they were at the F% too, but I missed that so missed them. Anyway, props to the UND Cheer Squad, good showing at the X.

[SoCalSiouxFan]

Re: 2011-2012 North Dakota Offseason Thread

Here is a chance to vote for Oshie to be on the cover of EA Sports NHL 13.

http://blues.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=624610

[Toe Blake]

Re: 2011-2012 North Dakota Offseason Thread

Total Offense Projection: 170-210 goals. That equates to roughly 4-5 goals/game...and we haven't even factored in our defense, who can probably put up 15-25 goals, putting that number around 4.5-5.5 goals/game. The high end of that number is unlikely, but I think North Dakota has the chance to be a 4-4.5 goals/game team next season. On top of that, our blue line should be stacked, and having Dell, Saunders, and Gothberg between the pipes...I don't expect that the Sioux allow much more than 2-2.5 goals/game on average. That +2 goal/game differential has shown to be key for having a great season.

Given all of this, if everyone comes back, North Dakota is likely a top 2-3 team in the country, and has an excellent shot at winning #8.

Averaging 4+ goals per game is pretty optimistic even if they get everyone back and everyone remained healthy......two significant if's. Goalies might as well be the Michelin Man with the equipment thay have now. It's hard to score no matter how good you are. Too many teams like Alaska who are content to forgo offense and pack it in and let you shoot from the outside all night long. And most coaches including Hakstol play it conservative when up 2-3 goals. Not likely to score 6-7 goals very often which you would need to do frequently to average 4+. Lastly, there are waaaay too many media timeouts these days......you rarely see a 4th line, so you need to score a lot of goals against the top 10-15 guys on every team. That doesn't mean they wouldn't be a top 2-3 team next year, but I don't think that kind of offense is realistic.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2011-2012 North Dakota Offseason Thread

Averaging 4+ goals per game is pretty optimistic even if they get everyone back and everyone remained healthy......two significant if's. Goalies might as well be the Michelin Man with the equipment thay have now. It's hard to score no matter how good you are. Too many teams like Alaska who are content to forgo offense and pack it in and let you shoot from the outside all night long. And most coaches including Hakstol play it conservative when up 2-3 goals. Not likely to score 6-7 goals very often which you would need to do frequently to average 4+. Lastly, there are waaaay too many media timeouts these days......you rarely see a 4th line, so you need to score a lot of goals against the top 10-15 guys on every team. That doesn't mean they wouldn't be a top 2-3 team next year, but I don't think that kind of offense is realistic.

While I agree with this, if everyone returns it is realistic. The last time I thought North Dakota had this strong of a team scoring wise was 2010-2011...they put up 178 goals (averaging 4.05 goals/game). North Dakota (again, this is all under the assumption that everyone returns, which I concede is very much up in the air) only loses 7 goals from our graduating class. They scored 135 goals this season...with a depleted lineup. Throw in Grimaldi for an entire season, another year of maturity on the rest of the team, and scoring an extra 42 is extremely realistic. IMO, pushing 200 goals is the more optimistic number. 170 is very doable.

[Toe Blake]

Re: 2011-2012 North Dakota Offseason Thread

While I agree with this, if everyone returns it is realistic. The last time I thought North Dakota had this strong of a team scoring wise was 2010-2011...they put up 178 goals (averaging 4.05 goals/game). North Dakota (again, this is all under the assumption that everyone returns, which I concede is very much up in the air) only loses 7 goals from our graduating class. They scored 135 goals this season...with a depleted lineup. Throw in Grimaldi for an entire season, another year of maturity on the rest of the team, and scoring an extra 42 is extremely realistic. IMO, pushing 200 goals is the more optimistic number. 170 is very doable.

I will concede that 4 or slightly above is still realistic for a good team in a good year, but you were talking about a range of 4.5 and above. The game has changed. You would probably have to go back to the early 2000's to see those numbers from any team. The gap between the have's and the have not's has continued to be compressed for various reasons. There are very few cupcakes out there and if you approach 4.25 as a team these days, that's exceptional.

[alnike]

Re: 2011-2012 North Dakota Offseason Thread

[QUOTE=Given all of this, if everyone comes back, North Dakota is likely a top 2-3 team in the country, and has an excellent shot at winning #8.[/QUOTE]

Although the list of NHL departures has quickly approached 20 through the end of March, and teams like NoDak and obviously Frozen Four teams like MN, BC and Union may contribute more in a couple weeks, I'm thinking that most of the eight 2012 Regional Final teams start next season in the preseason top 8, 1 MN, 2 NoDak, 3 BC, 4 Union, 5 WMU, 6 Lowell, 7 Cornell. Will be interesting to see how much respect Ferris State earns next year.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2011-2012 North Dakota Offseason Thread

I will concede that 4 or slightly above is still realistic for a good team in a good year, but you were talking about a range of 4.5 and above. The game has changed. You would probably have to go back to the early 2000's to see those numbers from any team. The gap between the have's and the have not's has continued to be compressed for various reasons. There are very few cupcakes out there and if you approach 4.25 as a team these days, that's exceptional.

I think a range of 185-225 goals is possible for the team. It all depends on how many games are played for the average, but if North Dakota were to hypothetically make the championship, a good guess would be that they would play 44-46 games. That would put their range anywhere from 4.02 goals/game to 5.11 goals/game. I'll say it again...the low end of that is very realistic. The high end is extremely optimistic.

That being said, the WCHA is a bit watered down since the addition to 12 teams, and the fact that North Dakota only plays 3 teams 4 times opens up the possibility of a diluted schedule to increase those goal numbers. Would a 5.11 goals/game be extraordinary? Of course. They would likely win 35+ games with those numbers and that defense. They might be place themselves in the argument of best team of all-time. Is it possible? Of course. I think it is about the highest end that they could possibly score, but still possible. Is a 4.02 goals/game possible? Definitely. I think if everyone comes back that would be a realistic figure for the team to score.

As I said in my initial post, the high end is unlikely. I stated that North Dakota has the chance to be about a 4-4.5 goal/game team. They did it in 2010-2011, and could very well do it again in 2012-2013.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2011-2012 North Dakota Offseason Thread

Although the list of NHL departures has quickly approached 20 through the end of March, and teams like NoDak and obviously Frozen Four teams like MN, BC and Union may contribute more in a couple weeks, I'm thinking that most of the eight 2012 Regional Final teams start next season in the preseason top 8, 1 MN, 2 NoDak, 3 BC, 4 Union, 5 WMU, 6 Lowell, 7 Cornell. Will be interesting to see how much respect Ferris State earns next year.

I would put BC #1, followed by North Dakota, Western Michigan, and Union. Minnesota has no proven goaltending, and Patterson saved their bacon plenty of times this season. They could potentially be the best team in college hockey next season, but until they get a proven netminder, I wouldn't give them the #1 tag.

[PhatKroger10]

Re: 2011-2012 North Dakota Offseason Thread

I would put BC #1, followed by North Dakota, Western Michigan, and Union. Minnesota has no proven goaltending, and Patterson saved their bacon plenty of times this season. They could potentially be the best team in college hockey next season, but until they get a proven netminder, I wouldn't give them the #1 tag.

I agree. WMU will be a team to watch, no doubt. They looked very good this year with a majority of their players not being seniors. I remember ESPN showing their D pairings and talking about how good they were, I couldn't help to notice that none of them were seniors.. The Gophers could be good next year (I cringed as I typed that), but depending how this postseason goes, they could lose a lot of pieces. The good thing about the Gophers for next year is that their (arguably) top two players, Bjugstad and Rau, are Florida Panther draftees, and the Panthers are just stacked with young talent. Minnesota and BC could face a lot of departures, but time will tell. I think we could see a two horse race next year between UND and Minnesota in the WCHA due to Denver, CC, Duluth, St. Cloud(?), Wisconsin (assuming they lose Schultz and/or Zengerle), losing key players. On a national scale, it is too early to tell, but if everything goes the way I predict, I could see 1. Union (not as the best team, but the fact they play in the ECAC), 2. UND (no matter who is in goal), 3. WMU, 4. Minnesota (really depends who they bring back), 5. Notre Dame (they played an extremely tough CCHA schedule, especially down the stretch, and shouldn't be sold off yet, especially if Tynan returns).

On a completely different note, I cannot imagine the Sioux losing too many players. I personally think Kristo is done, I can't really think of a good reason for him to return other than being loyal to the team. I think Nelson WILL be back. He's a very studious person and I think he really values his education. He, Dillon Simpson and Derek Rodwell are in similar courses and attend class daily (Simpson and Rodwell made the Dean's List and I'm sure are good motivators). I hear rumors (I'm not sure how much detail I'm allowed to disclose) that Dell is not returning. I'm not sure on the validity of the claims, but he's supposedly not returning, which I have an extremely hard time believing, he bleeds green. Similar to my statement above, Corban Knight is a Florida draftee. They're stacked with young talent/prospects, I think he stays. Forbort I could see going either way, but a source who is pretty good friends with him says that he will be returning. I am unsure about MacWilliam, I have not heard anything about him, but I think another year would help him develop as he'd see more ice time.

[MavHockey14]

Re: 2011-2012 North Dakota Offseason Thread

Thanks for an interesting page of reading, guys.

FS23, great detailed analysis, and I think literally everything you've said is fair and could definitely happen.

[MavHockey14]

Re: 2011-2012 North Dakota Offseason Thread

I'm sure the feeling is mutual. They've been beating up Kato teams for years before they reach high school.

Do you guys even know we have hockey down here?

[J.D.]

Re: 2011-2012 North Dakota Offseason Thread

BC preseason #1? I don't see that happening. They'll be losing Cross, Dumoulin, Kreider, Almeida and Carey. That's a lot to lose and too much turnover from the past two years total...

[carltonbarrett]

Re: 2011-2012 North Dakota Offseason Thread

BC preseason #1? I don't see that happening. They'll be losing Cross, Dumoulin, Kreider, Almeida and Carey. That's a lot to lose and too much turnover from the past two years total...

They may not be the top team come October, but they still return a very solid core up front with Gadreau, Arnold, Whitney, Mullane & Hayes, have some talented younger players that could really blossom, especially Straight and Linell and are solid in net. I worry about the D if Dumoulin leaves, but they bring in some very good Freshmen D, most notably Matheson, and it isn't like they haven't won with a young defense before (see 2010 when they beat Wisco in the Title game going with 4 freshmen D). Add in some excellent forward recruits in Vatrano and Richardson and I don't see any reason why they can't have a typical BC year.

[icelund]

Re: 2011-2012 North Dakota Offseason Thread

Do you guys even know we have hockey down here?

We have hockey? We don't even have a coach...

[MavHockey14]

Re: 2011-2012 North Dakota Offseason Thread

We have hockey? We don't even have a coach...

Thank the almighty Lord for that.