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CornwallAce
02-18-2012, 09:05 PM
Speculation on first round matches?

Air Force practically(don't know tie breakers for them) has a bye locked up.

2nd through 7th is tight, though Robert Morris has a tough road to jump up.

If Bentley and Holy Cross split their series, there is still a chance that all four west teams get a bye, but Mercyhurst would have to sweep Canisius and then win a tiebreaker vs Bentley(do they own it???)

Connecticut and Canisius seem to have a first round matchup locked up. The only thing that could change is who gets home ice. Again, Canisius has slim chances already down by 3 points.

AIC needs 1(or no Army sweep) point next weekend to lock up 10th place. But they had a similar situation last year playing vs Connecticut, so nothing is sure there.

Sacred Heart would have to sweep Army next weekend to move up, thus winning the tie-breaker.

CornwallAce
02-18-2012, 10:27 PM
Mercyhurst makes it a little more interesting by beating Air Force tonight 2-1, although being outshot 51-19.

BC/HE
02-19-2012, 07:26 AM
If I have the tiebreakers correct I believe the following to be the case:
AFA could possibly end up in a 4 way tie for second but in any scenario they do not fall to 5th. So AFA 1-4.
RIT 1-6.
NU,MC,Bentley and Holy Cross 1-7. Holy Cross can only get 1st involving a multiple tie for 1st at 35pts that must include AFA.
RMU 4-7.

RIT and Niagara cannot finish involved in a tie. Neither can Bentley and Holy Cross.
Any tiebreaker involving multiple teams will have more Western than Eastern teams so the Eastern team will end up no worse than 2nd in that tiebreaker position be it involving 3 or 4 teams.
Niagara has an advantage in any tiebreaker that does not involve AFA.

blazer777
02-19-2012, 07:40 AM
If I have the tiebreakers correct I believe the following to be the case:
AFA could possibly end up in a 4 way tie for second but in any scenario they do not fall to 5th. So AFA 1-4.
RIT 1-6.
NU,MC,Bentley and Holy Cross 1-7. Holy Cross can only get 1st involving a multiple tie for 1st at 35pts that must include AFA.
RMU 4-7.

RIT and Niagara cannot finish involved in a tie. Neither can Bentley and Holy Cross.
Any tiebreaker involving multiple teams will have more Western than Eastern teams so the Eastern team will end up no worse than 2nd in that tiebreaker position be it involving 3 or 4 teams.
Niagara has an advantage in any tiebreaker that does not involve AFA.


This is a nice little tool Mar posted last week that makes it easier to see. Not updated yet with yesterday's wins\losses\ties.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/atlantichockey/atlanticwinmagicnumbers.html

BC/HE
02-19-2012, 08:08 AM
The only difference I can see is that I believe Holy Cross still has a shot at #1 with a multiple tie at first involving AFA at 35 points. AFA would win a tiebreaker over most other Western pod schools and then be paired off against Holy Cross because of the unbalanced schedule which would divide the tiebreaker into mini groups. Holy Cross would then take the tiebreaker over AFA. Correct me if I have this wrong.

UNHHurstFan
02-19-2012, 10:47 AM
It is amazing how many teams have a shot at first place and/or first round byes going into the last weekend of the season. This should make the playoffs very enjoyable as there really is no one who has established any dominance or even consistency over a multi week period.

I thought UConn might be the dark horse to go deep into the playoffs again this year but they seems to be falling back a bit lately. If there are to be any surprises I could see Holy Cross being a team from the east that gets to Rochester, but even that is not a huge shock.

My gut tells me RIT get through and wins it all while AIC advances through the first round - CornwallAce has earned the chance to root for AIC beyond the first playoff weekend.

OrangeBruin
02-19-2012, 11:43 AM
My gut tells me RIT get through and wins it all while AIC advances through the first round - CornwallAce has earned the chance to root for AIC beyond the first playoff weekend.

AIC made it to the second round last year and then got swept by RIT in the quarters.

komey1
02-19-2012, 11:47 AM
This will be the most interesting AHA tournament in history. For a change, there are multiple teams that have a good chance to win it all.

Air Force won't have it easy going out to Robert Morris.
RIT has never beaten Niagara since they have been DI - mustering a couple ties.
Mercyhurst has a home and home with Canisius, so you would think they have the "schedule advantage"
Bentley and Holy Cross will battle for a bye - I don't think both will get there.

CornwallAce
02-19-2012, 12:28 PM
Air Force won't have it easy going out to Robert Morris.
RIT has never beaten Niagara since they have been DI - mustering a couple ties.

If anyone can handle the travel, it's Air Force.

And I would have never guessed that RIT has never beaten Niagara since D1. But how many games have they played against them so far? Is it only 2?

---
AIC has had moderate luck in the first round. They beat Canisius a few years ago and beat Army last year.

UNHHurstFan
02-19-2012, 07:14 PM
AIC made it to the second round last year and then got swept by RIT in the quarters.

Good catch. My mistake.

cplinford
02-20-2012, 07:57 AM
If anyone can handle the travel, it's Air Force.

And I would have never guessed that RIT has never beaten Niagara since D1. But how many games have they played against them so far? Is it only 2?

---
AIC has had moderate luck in the first round. They beat Canisius a few years ago and beat Army last year.

Looking up scores from previous years looks like 9 times since RITs first D1/D3 split season in 05-06. Niagara's head coach (Burkholder) was the goaltender for RIT back in the 80s for one of the national championships so there was probably enough connection to schedule games every year. The geography works out well too :)

2011-2012
0-0 - T
2010-2011
1-4 - L
2-5 - L
3-3 - T
2009-2010
2-3 - L
2008-2009
2-6 - L
2007-2008
3-3 - T
2006-2007
3-5 - L
2005-2006
2-3 - L

CornwallAce
02-24-2012, 10:43 PM
Not much settled, only AIC has their spot secured, I think. A few upsets have turned things into a big logjam.

AFHockeyFan
02-25-2012, 09:02 PM
So far it looks like:
1) Air Force
2) Niagara
3) RIT
4) Mercyhurst
5) Holy Cross
6) Bentley
7) Robert Morris
8) UConn
9) Canisius
10) AIC
11) Sacre Coeur
12) Army

First round would be:
Army @ HC
SH @ Bentley
AIC @ RM
Can @ UConn

CornwallAce
02-25-2012, 11:51 PM
The way Sacred Heart is playing of late, they could give Bentley a run for their money.


AIC has finished strong, so they have a shot. I think they'll need some breaks, but they're also playing smart enough lately that those chances can go their way now.


I have no clue on Canisius and Connecticut. I'll relegate my opinions to either other people or coin tosses.


You would think Holy Cross would have an easy time with Army.

LTsatch
02-26-2012, 12:22 AM
UCONN swept Canisius in the regular season. Good luck to UCONN in the post season!

AFHockeyFan
02-26-2012, 08:24 AM
Hard to see any of the visitors pulling those series off. That would set up:

Holy Cross @ Mercyhurst
Bentley @ RIT
Bobby Mo @ Viagara
UConn @ AF

I could see any of those series going either way, with the possible exception of the last one.

komey1
02-26-2012, 01:17 PM
I'm excited for this year's playoffs. Anyone in the top 7 can win IMO.

Robert Morris and AIC split at Robert Morris - so this could be an upset alrert.

schiegs
02-27-2012, 01:51 PM
Odds-on Favorite: Air Force
First Round Surprise: AIC
1st Round Bye Team Most Likely to NOT make it to Rochester: Niagara
Dark Horse Candidate for The Tournament Championship: Holy Cross

Discuss.

Snively65
02-27-2012, 02:30 PM
Odds-on Favorite: Air Force
First Round Surprise: AIC
1st Round Bye Team Most Likely to NOT make it to Rochester: Niagara
Dark Horse Candidate for The Tournament Championship: Holy Cross

Discuss.

I think that there is a good chance that either Holy Cross or Bentley, and maybe even both, can get to Rochester for the final four, as those two eastern pod teams played some close games against the western pod teams this season.

AFHockeyFan
02-27-2012, 04:22 PM
Bentley is the only team that really scares me (after taking 3 points here). Their defense is solid--they could give RIT fits if the Tigers don't find their scoring touch.