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Sweeper
02-06-2012, 09:37 PM
--- Home Lock - 38 (BU/BC/MC/ME) ---
--- In - 30 (NU) ---
BU 25 - 43 [1-10]
BC 23 - 39 [1-10]
ME 22 - 38 [1-10]
MC 21 - 43 [1-10]
UML 20 - 42 [1-10]
PC 17 - 39 [1-10]
UMA 14 - 36 [1-10]
UNH 13 - 33 [1-10]
NU 12 - 30 [1-10]
UVM 5 - 25 [3-10]
--- Home Eligible - 24 (Field) ---
--- Out - 13 (UNH) ---

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
BU - ME, @MC, UMA, @UML/UML, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
BC - @UNH, @UVM, MC/@MC, @PC/PC, UVMx2
ME - @BU, @PC, @UML, UMAx2, @NUx2, UNH
MC - PC, BU, @UMA, @UML, UNH, @BC/BC, UML/@UML, @UMA/UMA
UML - UMA, UVMx2, MC, ME, BU/@BU, @MC/MC, @PC/PC
PC - @MC, @UNH/UNH, ME, @UMA, @NU/NU, BC/@BC, UML/@UML
UMA - @UML, @NU, MC, @BU, PC, @MEx2, UNHx2, MC/@MC
UNH - BC, PC/@PC, NU, @MC, UVMx2, @UMAx2, @ME
NU - @UVM, UMA, @UNH, PC/@PC, MEx2, @BU/BU
UVM - NU, @UMLx2, BC, @UNHx2, BUx2, @BCx2



Itís usually easiest at this point in the year to look at the top and bottom, since the middle will still be muddled.

On its face, UVM could still tie BU and, with a pair at the Gut, have the tb. That, however, does not mean that UVM could finish in first. They would also have to worry about staying ahead of BC, and Maine, and so on.

One unusual scheduling quirk in favor of catching the top three teams as a whole, is that after tonightís ME @ BU game, they are done with each other, meaning that they could all lose on any given night. Of course, the flip of that is that they could all win.

If you add current 4th place MC, they add a singleton w/ BU and a H&H w/ BC to the mix, but thatís still only three games between the top four teams in the seasonís final five weeks.

Traditionally, if youíre trying to move up in the standings by just a spot or two, itís usually beneficial for you if the teams ahead of you are playing each other. For example, if your team is in 5th, trying to get the final home ice spot, you are often thought to be best off if 3 and 4 are playing each other. That way, if you win (which you will always need to do to move up Ė other teams losing doesnít give you more points), you gain on at least one of the teams ahead of you. One could also argue that youíd be helped by 1 and 2 hosting 3 and 4, so that 3 and 4 would be at their least likely to win and perhaps both would lose Ė but that gets into matchups, playing styles, and other intangibles that get away from math.

-----

So, for UVM (and others chasing Home Ice), with all of the games that are still remaining, someone else Ė in fact, a bunch of ďsomeone elsesĒ Ė would pick up the points that BU, BC and Maine would need to drop and all those ďsomeone elsesĒ would stay ahead of UVM.

I could, for example, get UVM into a favorable position against all of the top four, with the following results. BU loses out and UVM wins out. Tied at 25. Maine loses out except tonight vs. BU (mandated because BU must lose out in this scenario). Maine @ 24. Similarly, MC picks up 2 from BU. BC and MC split and each loses the remainder, leaving both at 25. Now UVM is in a 4-way tie w/ BU, BC and MC at 25 and ahead of Maine at 24.

The problem for UVM at that point is that every other team in the league could have passed these five teams. In fact, if the team that is currently lower in the standings wins each of the remaining match-ups, UML, UMA, PC, and NU host, UNH is fifth and then we go to tbs to break up the log jam at 25 to see who is at each of 6 through 9.

The other way to see how high UVM could get is to not try to catch everybody, but let some teams ahead of you win out, taking points from those closer. For example, if UVM gives up on catching BU and both BU and UVM win out (UVM taking the 2 BU games), with a BC/MC 1/3 split and everything else the same as before except these changes, all of a sudden UVM could be 6th on their own.

Add in PC winning out and UMA losing to UML tonight or to Maine in mid-Feb, and suddenly UVM would be looking at Home Ice. The best path Iíve found so far for UVM is to let two of the teams at the top run away and suck up all the points with them. For instance, I can get UVM to a 3 seed with BU and MC taking all of their available points (who wins the BU/MC H2H is irrelevant to UVM), sprinkling in a couple of well-placed (for UVM) outcomes, and leaving UVM at 25 ahead of a logjam at 24 and 23.

Therefore, I cap out UVM, after last nightís loss, at 3.

Moving up to NU, I can still get NU into a 1 seed. One way is with a 3-way tie at 28 w/ PC and BU, whose tbs NU would pick up by sweeping out their season.

Since NU can still get to first in that scenario, simply flipping the [email protected] game in the same scenario over to the UNH column gives UNH a 1 seed at 29 pts.

Give UMA the wins against NU and UNH in the current scenario and they jump up to 1, and so on.

Basically, everyone except UVM could mathematically still get to a 1 seed, even with the remaining schedule factored in.

-----

Moving from the top down, letís see how low we can drop BU.

Well, taking where we just were and having BU instead lose out and having NU beat UMA, weíre in a situation with BU tied for last w/UVM @ 25. Since UVM would get the pair at home, that gives them the tb and BU is 10th.

Take that as a starting point and have BC lose out and BC stays at 23, and at the bottom.

Safe to say, at this point, anyone losing the rest of their games could still end up in 10th place. Current 10th UVM canít get higher than 3 against the field, but they can get higher than your individual team.

-----

Also to be noted at this point is the games-in-hand situation. In most seasons, at this point the Beanpot schools (BU, BC, NU) have played more games and the other teams generally make up their games in hand over the two Beanpot weekends.

This year, Maine is also ahead of the other teams in terms of Games Played (GP) because they have a non-conference pair coming up with UAH.

So, when trying to figure out where teams really stand, and where their maxes are, note that BC and Maine have played 19 league games, leaving just 8 each. BU and NU have 18/9. UNH and UVM are at 17/10 and the other four are at 16/11. For perspective, that means that some teams (BC, ME) have played more than 70% of their HE schedule, while many others - essentially the whole current Home Ice bubble of MC, UML, PC, UMA Ė have played less than 60% of theirs.

Itíll be interesting to see which teams, if any, in the middle use those extra games to move up.

-----

So, where do we set the marker lines to start?

Well, BU and MC can each hit 43, but they canít both hit it because they play each other. Similarly, PC plays everyone ahead of them except BU, so if they hit their max of 39, the rest of their opponents donít. Factoring in the schedule, I place the Home Lock bar Ė where I can max out the points for 4th - currently at 38.

On the flip side of that equation, the lowest I can get 4th Ė so that the most teams could reach the plateau Ė is the scenario above where UVM hits the 3 seed. In that case, the 4th seed is at 24.

For the In bar, itís simply a matter of staying ahead of #9ís (NUís) max of 30.

For Out, if you canít catch 8th, currently UNH @ 13, you canít make the playoffs.

Everything else is still up for grabs.

Great write up dude.

Todd
02-10-2012, 04:06 PM
--- Home Lock - 38 (BU/BC/ME+UML/MC) ---
--- In - 28 (Field) ---
BU 27 - 41 [1-9]
UML 26 - 42 [1-9]
MC 25 - 41 [1-9]
BC 25 - 39 [1-9]
ME 24 - 38 [1-9]
UNH 17 - 31 [1-10]
PC 17 - 33 [1-10]
NU 16 - 30 [1-10]
UMA 14 - 30 [1-10]
--- Home Eligible - 25 (MC/BC) ---
UVM 5 - 19 [7-10]
--- Out - 16 (NU) ---

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
BU - UMA, @UML/UML, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
UML - MC, ME, BU/@BU, @MC/MC, @PC/PC
MC - @UML, UNH, @BC/BC, UML/@UML, @UMA/UMA
BC - @UVM, MC/@MC, @PC/PC, UVMx2
ME - @PC, @UML, UMAx2, @NUx2, UNH
UNH - NU, @MC, UVMx2, @UMAx2, @ME
PC - ME, @UMA, @NU/NU, BC/@BC, UML/@UML
NU - @UNH, PC/@PC, MEx2, @BU/BU
UMA - @BU, PC, @MEx2, UNHx2, MC/@MC
UVM - BC, @UNHx2, BUx2, @BCx2


Now it gets interesting.

In the current Top Five - and the Bottom One:

BU and BC play the bottom two for one each - UMA and UVM, respectively. A BU win would both raise their point total and drop UMA's max, each by two. That flip would put UMA permanently behind BU and BU would be (among?) the first to clinch a playoff spot. A BC win could bury UVM, depending on the rest of the night (or the next, or the next...).

More fun is among the other three of this group.

UML has the tough-on-paper task of facing each of the other two. At least they get to play both games at Tsongas.

If Top Two BU and UML both win enough points to keep those positions, in either order, this weekend, then that sets up even more import on next weekend's H2H between the two. Following that, of course, are games two and three of the UML/MC series, which could have similar import. If UML stays around the top, they will certainly have earned it.

The other games for MC and ME (UNH on Sat and PC on Fri, respectively) could help determine if anyone outside the Top Five will realistically continue the battle for Home Ice. UNH's max would drop to no higher than 29. PC would drop to 31 or lower by Sunday. With points being added to the Top Five, the Home Eligible line that those beneath it are chasing would move up from 25. That window wouldn't close, but it would become a tighter squeeze. Further, the interlocking schedule between those below the line would likely mean that those above it are going to be protected from some of the lower positions. While any of those below might be able to squeak in, they could no longer all do it.

In the Other Four:

Besides the games already mentioned, this group also has some key internal match-ups. UNH hosts NU for the Huskies' only game, and PC travels to Mullins where UMA is so tough. Next weekend, PC and NU play H2H. If anyone out of this group is going to make a move, they've got to start knocking off the competition in this group to move up to the other.

For example - similar examples apply to the other three - if NU can take out UNH and then two from PC, they'll find themselves at 22 points before ending the season hosting Maine for two, taking the "road" trip to BU, and then Senior Night against the Terriers. Three of the last four at Matthews and a T ride for their road game likely helps their cause. No one knows yet whether a 30 point max would still have NU in the running for Home Ice with two weeks to go, but with UML, BC and MC knocking each other about in the mean time, who's to say it won't?

Well, this thread will, but not until then.

In the mean time, let the seeding possibilities really begin...

Todd
02-11-2012, 03:11 AM
--- Home Lock - 36 (BU/BC/ME+UML/MC) ---
UML 28 - 42 [1-8]
--- In - 28 (Field) ---
BU 27 - 39 [1-9]
BC 27 - 39 [1-9]
MC 25 - 39 [1-9]
ME 24 - 36 [1-9]
UNH 19 - 31 [1-9]
PC 19 - 33 [1-9]
NU 16 - 28 [3-10]
UMA 16 - 30 [1-10]
--- Home Eligible - 25 (MC) ---
UVM 5 - 17 [8-10]
--- Out - 16 (NU/UMA) ---

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UML - ME, BU/@BU, @MC/MC, @PC/PC
BU - @UML/UML, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
BC - MC/@MC, @PC/PC, UVMx2
MC - UNH, @BC/BC, UML/@UML, @UMA/UMA
ME - @UML, UMAx2, @NUx2, UNH
UNH - @MC, UVMx2, @UMAx2, @ME
PC - @UMA, @NU/NU, BC/@BC, UML/@UML
NU - PC/@PC, MEx2, @BU/BU
UMA - PC, @MEx2, UNHx2, MC/@MC
UVM - @UNHx2, BUx2, @BCx2


After tonight's results, the highest I can get the 9th place team is 27.

That puts UML, at 28, no lower than 8th and In the HE Quarter-Finals. Congrats to the River Hawks.

While BU and BC are each at 27, neither has yet clinched, as they could lose out on tbs at 27. For example, BU could be tied w/ Maine and/or NU, losing the tb to both in that case. BC could be tied with any or all of ME, BU and/or UMA, already losing all three tbs at 1-2-0. Since both teams are done with HE play until next Friday, they can't gain any more league points until at least then. With limited league play on Saturday, I still see the In line needing tbs at 27 going into next weekend regardless of those outcomes, or 28 for a clean clinching of a playoff spot.

After this Saturday, most of the games-in-hand will have evened out, except that ME and UNH will have played one extra relative to the rest of the league. That disparity will continue until the final weekend, when the other eight teams pair up for two games, but UNH and Maine only play the final Saturday.

The Home Lock line drops two to 36.

Since MC is currently 4th at 25 and could lose out without being passed - although with a monstrous logjam at 25 - Home Eligible stays at 25.

The Out line is now split between NU and UMA at 16. Since they don't play each other, they could both stay there. With UVM's max at 17, the Catamounts could still sneak into 8th. However, UNH and PC winning tonight put them out of UVM's reach, so 8th is UVM's last shot at the playoffs.

UMA's max of 30 leaves them with the thinnest of chances for the 1 seed. With UML/MC x 2 and BC/MC x 2 and UML/BU x 2, the best the Minutemen could hope for is a four- or five-way tie at 30 where they hold the tbs. Perhaps surprisingly, if UMA were to reach 30 points, they would hold the tb with BC (already 2-1-0), ME (2-0-1), MC (2-1-0) and, after tonight, split w/ BU (1-1-1). The only tb they would lose among the top five would be UML (0-3-0). As long as UML is not in the 30-point tie group, UMA should come out on top. This far out, I'm not going to go through all of the combinations that would include UML and UMA and two or three others to see who wins that.

For similar reasons, NU's new max of 28 leaves them behind at least two of that same combination of four teams.

Todd
02-12-2012, 12:01 PM
--- Home Lock - 36 (BU/BC/ME+UML/MC) ---
UML 28 - 40 [1-8]
--- In - 28 (Field) ---
BU 27 - 39 [1-9]
BC 27 - 39 [1-9]
MC 26 - 38 [1-9]
ME 26 - 36 [1-9]
PC 21 - 33 [1-9]
UNH 20 - 30 [2-9]
NU 16 - 28 [3-10]
UMA 16 - 28 [3-10]
--- Home Eligible - 26 (MC/ME) ---
UVM 5 - 17 [8-10]
--- Out - 16 (NU/UMA) ---

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UML - BU/@BU, @MC/MC, @PC/PC
BU - @UML/UML, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
BC - MC/@MC, @PC/PC, UVMx2
MC - @BC/BC, UML/@UML, @UMA/UMA
ME - UMAx2, @NUx2, UNH
PC - @NU/NU, BC/@BC, UML/@UML
UNH - UVMx2, @UMAx2, @ME
NU - PC/@PC, MEx2, @BU/BU
UMA - @MEx2, UNHx2, MC/@MC
UVM - @UNHx2, BUx2, @BCx2

Lots to talk about, so I'm breaking up the sections with ----

----
With MC and Maine now tied at 26 for 4th, the Home Eligible line must move up to 26 with them. Since they don't face off, each could lose out and stay there. All of the teams below them, in combination, could fairly easily stay below them. That means that if you can get to 26, you still have a shot at Home Ice.

----
If the top five teams split internally and sweep externally, 4th seed would still be at 36 (37, 37, 36, 36, 34). Not a lot of wiggle room, but Home Lock is still at 36.

----
UMA's loss keeps UVM on Life Support for the 8 seed. In fact, since UVM loses the tb to UMA (1-2-0) and to NU (0-3-0), and UMA/NU split at 1-1-1, there's no combination where UVM could come out on top of either or both teams if tied. With both NU and UMA already at 16 and UVM's max at 17, that means UVM's only path to the playoffs is to win out, and have both NU and UMA lose out. Anything else and UVM is done.

----
As with NU before last night's games, UMA's max dropping to 28 makes them no higher than a 3 seed. With UML at 28, BU at 27 and four points still to split between the two, at least one of those teams must surpass 28. Similarly, BC is at 27 and MC at 26 with four points to split. Since either UML or MC could be the team(s) to pass 28 from their pairing and then take most/all of the points from their match-up the following weekend, that H2H does not yet drop NU and UMA down another notch. However, if BU and BC pass 28 and leave UML and MC under that mark, then the winner of that third series would be yet another team that NU and UMA could not catch.

Of course, both UML and BU could pass 28 next weekend, bumping the NU/UMA pair down another notch.

Also, NU loses the tb to both BC (0-3-0) and MC (0-2-1), so if either just reaches 28, that's enough to put them ahead of NU. A 2/2 or 1/3 split of the BC/MC series would mean NU would be behind both, barring a bizarre multi-way tb that I'm not going to calculate this far out.

UMA, on the other hand, wins the tb w/ BC and has two more w/ MC on the final weekend - which they would have to sweep (taking the tb) to hit 28 - so they are still safe from a tie at 28 with either of those two.

----
UNH's max dropping to 30 leaves them in a best-case scenario as league co-champs, with a five-way tie with UML/BU/BC/MC.

But let's look at that more closely...

With their tbs within this group already decided at 1-2-0, 0-3-0, 0-3-0, 1-1-1, respectively, UNH would have a collective two wins. BU and BC already have at least three because of their sweeps of UNH (BU has seven and BC has six). UML has one win against each of the other three to add to their two with UNH, for at least five wins. MC also has just two wins so far, but has four left to play within the group. All of the other teams in the group have games pending within the mix. In a nutshell, that tie at 30 would let UNH raise a RS banner, but they'd be no better than a 4 seed, and quite possibly a 5.

They'd be better off, for seeding, to let one of the other teams go and aim to stay ahead of the others. For example, if UML soaks up most or all of the points from their BU and MC series, that would leave leeway for BC and MC to split and for UNH to come in solo at 30 and in 2nd place.

----
At 33 max, PC can still come in 1st, by themselves.

----
Lastly...

Even with UNH and UMA losing a collective three points, that still leaves the collective max of the 9th seed at 27, but by an increasingly slim margin.

Here's a simple look at why - or as simple as I can make it:

For NU and UMA to pass 27, they must win out, or take 11 of their remaining 12 available points to just reach 27.

Remember that UNH only has five games left, not six. Two of those games are vs. UMA. If UMA runs the table, that drops four from UNH's max of 30 - leaving UNH with a max of 26. If UNH and UMA split 1/3, that leaves both at 27. Let's assume that they otherwise win out and put them both at 27.

Providence and Merrimack have enough points to soak up from those already at or over 27 that they can comfortably - on paper - pass 27 without impacting the 9 seed max.

Now let's look at Maine. They only need one point to reach 27. They, like UNH, have only five games left. All of their remaining games are against the teams below them struggling to make 27. They cannot take any points from either UNH or UMA because of the inflexibility of the scenario above to get both of those squads to 27. That means they can only take 1 from NU, leaving both Maine and Northeastern also at 27.

Anything other than that exact combination from NU/UMA/UNH/Maine and the In line drops, putting at least BU and BC in the playoffs. Of course, one point for either of those teams would also put them In.

All of that would leave only UVM below the at-least-four-way jam at the 27 point mark. That logjam could grow with any of the following mutually-possible scenarios: BU loses out; BC loses out; PC gets swept by NU (required above), sweeps BC (required if BC loses out) and splits 2/2 w/ UML.

That would give us a seven-way tie for 3rd-9th. (UVM would have 13.)

In that case, first place would be decided by the UML/MC series. If MC swept, it would cause a tie at 34, w/ MC having the tb to earn the top seed. Anything else and UML would be 1 and MC 2.

To the extent it matters, I guess that we've shown that if the 3rd seed has 27 points, we know that UML is at least co-champs. OK, now we're officially down the rabbit hole...

steakbomb
02-12-2012, 12:09 PM
That's just downright impressive. Complicated but impressive

02-17-2012, 09:01 AM
I love this thread!

Todd
02-17-2012, 04:23 PM
--- Home Lock - 36 (BU/BC/ME+UML/MC) ---
UML 28 - 40 [1-8]
--- In - 28 (Field) ---
BU 27 - 39 [1-9]
BC 27 - 39 [1-9]
MC 26 - 38 [1-9]
ME 26 - 36 [1-9]
PC 21 - 33 [1-9]
UNH 20 - 30 [2-9]
NU 16 - 28 [3-10]
UMA 16 - 28 [3-10]
--- Home Eligible - 26 (MC/ME) ---
UVM 5 - 17 [8-10]
--- Out - 16 (NU/UMA) ---

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UML - BU/@BU, @MC/MC, @PC/PC
BU - @UML/UML, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
BC - MC/@MC, @PC/PC, UVMx2
MC - @BC/BC, UML/@UML, @UMA/UMA
ME - UMAx2, @NUx2, UNH
PC - @NUx2, BC/@BC, UML/@UML
UNH - UVMx2, @UMAx2, @ME
NU - PCx2, MEx2, @BU/BU
UMA - @MEx2, UNHx2, MC/@MC
UVM - @UNHx2, BUx2, @BCx2


Big weekend is at hand.

BIG weekend.

With BU holding the tb over BC (Beanpot final is not a league game) and MC owning the tb w/ ME, we have 1 playing 2 and 3 playing 4 for a very important set of H&Hs. Laying in wait is #5 who hosts #8/9 for a pair.

With the standings as close as they are among the top five, the ramifications of this weekend will be felt come seeding time, whether we get opportunistic sweeps, or failure-to-capitalize splits. With Maine having one fewer game left, and someone - actually, at least two someones - ahead of them not getting points each night, they really need to take advantage of the weaker-on-paper opponent in Bear-friendly Alfond otherwise this is a big opportunity missed.

Not to be overlooked is PC, just on the outside of the top group. The are playing the other #8/9 team for two. They are 5 points out of Home Ice, 6 back of BC and 7 back of UML. After this weekend, they play two with first BC and then UML. If PC can gain 2 or more on BC and 3 or more on UML, they would control their own destiny for Home Ice. In fact, with UML and MC facing off while PC is with BC, you could throw MC into the mix of teams PC could catch with little to no help if this weekend breaks right for the Friars. I've got to think that PC is rooting for BU and MC this weekend. Either that or, if the handwriting is on the wall, pulling for UML to take out both the Terriers and the Warriors over the next four games, but then PC would need help from others to break into the Top Four.

The point is that a PC sweep would put them only one point behind where MC and ME are right now. Whoever among the Top Five gets the short end of the points this weekend will not only be looking up at the other teams that left them behind, but also over their shoulder at PC.

UNH is only a point further back than PC, but is less of a direct threat for two reasons. One is that they only have five games left instead of six. That's two fewer points to gain, when there are so few points left to add for everyone. The other is that they don't face full weekends against the leaders, so they wouldn't control their own fate. That said, the flip side of not facing contenders means that they have arguably the weakest remaining schedule, so the points are at least as easy for them to gather - on paper - as they would be for anyone else.

What else...

Well, we have some rare non-ME/UVM both-games-in-one-location weekend series coming up. First, apparently PC is at Matthews for two this weekend, rather than the traditional H&H. Next weekend, UMA hosts UNH for a pair. That prompts two notes.

One note is that UNH is hosting Senior weekend against UVM and then plays the rest of the season (all three games of it) on the road. Considering that those road games are at Mullins, where UMA has been nigh-invulnerable (The Tick? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller...?), and at Alfond, UNH better beat up on UVM this weekend or risk joining them in three weeks in front of the TV. That could put a whole different impact on the UNH/UMA series.

The second note is that NU has five of their last six at home, with the "road" game being a T-ride away at Agganis. Remember that, last season, NU played four straight games at Agganis (RS final and QFs), taking three of those four to reach the HE Semis.

Elsewhere, the other teams rivaling UNH for easiest remaining SOS are BU and ME. After this weekend, BU would have the easiest road on paper. While UNH plays #10 UVM x 2 and tied-for-#8 UMA x 2 before facing Home Ice Contender ME, after BU is done with UML, they have #10 UVM x 2 and other-tied-for-#8 NU x 2. ME plays both tied-for-#8s for two each (UMA in ME, NU in Boston) before hosting #7 UNH for a final game. As much of a say as ME has on Home Ice, they may also help decide who misses the playoffs.

Remember, UVM has only one path to the playoffs. They must win out and have both NU and UMA lose out. Not an enviable position, especially with UVM having their final four against teams with "Boston" on their sweaters.

Four teams (BU, BC, MC, ME) are within striking distance of clinching playoff spots tonight. Whoever among that group doesn't do so tonight will be in a similar position tomorrow.

Todd
02-18-2012, 01:31 AM
--- Home Lock - 36 (BU/BC/ME+UML/MC) ---
BU 29 - 39 [1-6]
BC 29 - 39 [1-6]
UML 28 - 38 [1-7]
ME 28 - 36 [1-7]
MC 26 - 36 [1-8]
--- In - 26 (Field) ---
PC 22 - 32 [1-9]
UNH 20 - 28 [3-9]
--- Home Eligible - 28 (UML/ME) ---
NU 17 - 27 [5-9]
UMA 16 - 26 [5-10]
--- Out - 17 (NU) ---
UVM 7 - 17 [9-10]

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
BU - UML, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
BC - @MC, @PC/PC, UVMx2
UML - @BU, @MC/MC, @PC/PC
ME - UMA, @NUx2, UNH
MC - BC, UML/@UML, @UMA/UMA
PC - @NU, BC/@BC, UML/@UML
UNH - UVM, @UMAx2, @ME
NU - PC, MEx2, @BU/BU
UMA - @ME, UNHx2, MC/@MC
UVM - @UNH, BUx2, @BCx2


So many changes, so little time...

BU, BC and ME winning puts all of them above the In line as it was before tonight, let alone now that it has lowered. That means all three join UML in the playoffs. Congrats.

In fact, four teams can now not catch BU and BC, meaning that each can fall no lower than 6th. For ME and UML, they can fall no lower than 7th. While either could/would win some tbs at 28, they would also lose some other possible ties - including some with UNH - so each could lose out and end up 7th. UNH could also pass both and be 3rd.

With two still to play between MC and UMA, that tb is yet to be set, so MC could still fall behind UMA. However, for UMA to catch MC, that would mean UMA swept UNH, dropping UNH's max to 24. So, while MC could fall below either UNH or UMA, they can't fall behind both. With UVM already buried, that means at least two teams have to fall behind MC. That means MC can be no lower than 8th and is in. Congrats to the Warriors.

In fact, because UNH and UMA play two, the highest that the 9th place team could be is 25. That puts the In line at 26 w/o having to figure tbs.

At the other end of the spectrum, UVM won and UMA lost, but NU tied. As noted previously, that single point that didn't go UVM's way means that the Cats are out.

The Home Lock line stays at 36. In fact, there can be a five-way tie at 36, meaning that you need to pass 36, or have the tbs go your way if just at 36. By the time someone gets close, the line will have changed, so with only five or four games left, it's really still just an indicator of how far anyone is from clinching Home Ice. That said, the Lock line should begin to drop tomorrow, even as the Eligible line rises.

Since four teams are now at or above 28, the Eligible line has to rise at least that far. Since ME doesn't face any other top teams, they could lose out and not impact any others. That means that current 5th could also lose out, keeping 4th place at 28. There is enough flexibility left that everyone else that could reach or pass 28 (that isn't already there) doesn't.

goalguard
02-18-2012, 10:30 AM
--- Home Lock - 36 (BU/BC/ME+UML/MC) ---
BU 29 - 39 [1-6]
BC 29 - 39 [1-6]
UML 28 - 38 [1-7]
ME 28 - 36 [1-7]
MC 26 - 36 [1-8]
--- In - 26 (Field) ---
PC 22 - 32 [1-9]
UNH 20 - 28 [3-9]
--- Home Eligible - 28 (UML/ME) ---
NU 17 - 27 [5-9]
UMA 16 - 26 [5-10]
--- Out - 17 (NU) ---
UVM 7 - 17 [9-10]

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
BU - UML, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
BC - @MC, @PC/PC, UVMx2
UML - @BU, @MC/MC, @PC/PC
ME - UMA, @NUx2, UNH
MC - BC, UML/@UML, @UMA/UMA
PC - @NU, BC/@BC, UML/@UML
UNH - UVM, @UMAx2, @ME
NU - PC, MEx2, @BU/BU
UMA - @ME, UNHx2, MC/@MC
UVM - @UNH, BUx2, @BCx2

Once again things are amazingly tight. What's different this year, though, is that on the final weekend, there may not be any huge head-to-head battles for home ice. Instead, it will be a matter of scoreboard watching. (Gotta love the CHN smart phone app.) That makes tonight and the coming weekend all the more important as at least one of the top five teams will be looking for upset help elsewhere.

Patronick
02-18-2012, 04:25 PM
--- Home Lock - 36 (BU/BC/ME+UML/MC) ---
BU 29 - 39 [1-6]
BC 29 - 39 [1-6]
UML 28 - 38 [1-7]
ME 28 - 36 [1-7]
MC 26 - 36 [1-8]
--- In - 26 (Field) ---
PC 22 - 32 [1-9]
UNH 20 - 28 [3-9]
--- Home Eligible - 28 (UML/ME) ---
NU 17 - 27 [5-9]
UMA 16 - 26 [5-10]
--- Out - 17 (NU) ---
UVM 7 - 17 [9-10]

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
BU - UML, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
BC - @MC, @PC/PC, UVMx2
UML - @BU, @MC/MC, @PC/PC
ME - UMA, @NUx2, UNH
MC - BC, UML/@UML, @UMA/UMA
PC - @NU, BC/@BC, UML/@UML
UNH - UVM, @UMAx2, @ME
NU - PC, MEx2, @BU/BU
UMA - @ME, UNHx2, MC/@MC
UVM - @UNH, BUx2, @BCx2


So many changes, so little time...

BU, BC and ME winning puts all of them above the In line as it was before tonight, let alone now that it has lowered. That means all three join UML in the playoffs. Congrats.

In fact, four teams can now not catch BU and BC, meaning that each can fall no lower than 6th. For ME and UML, they can fall no lower than 7th. While either could/would win some tbs at 28, they would also lose some other possible ties - including some with UNH - so each could lose out and end up 7th. UNH could also pass both and be 3rd.

With two still to play between MC and UMA, that tb is yet to be set, so MC could still fall behind UMA. However, for UMA to catch MC, that would mean UMA swept UNH, dropping UNH's max to 24. So, while MC could fall below either UNH or UMA, they can't fall behind both. With UVM already buried, that means at least two teams have to fall behind MC. That means MC can be no lower than 8th and is in. Congrats to the Warriors.

In fact, because UNH and UMA play two, the highest that the 9th place team could be is 25. That puts the In line at 26 w/o having to figure tbs.

At the other end of the spectrum, UVM won and UMA lost, but NU tied. As noted previously, that single point that didn't go UVM's way means that the Cats are out.

The Home Lock line stays at 36. In fact, there can be a five-way tie at 36, meaning that you need to pass 36, or have the tbs go your way if just at 36. By the time someone gets close, the line will have changed, so with only five or four games left, it's really still just an indicator of how far anyone is from clinching Home Ice. That said, the Lock line should begin to drop tomorrow, even as the Eligible line rises.

Since four teams are now at or above 28, the Eligible line has to rise at least that far. Since ME doesn't face any other top teams, they could lose out and not impact any others. That means that current 5th could also lose out, keeping 4th place at 28. There is enough flexibility left that everyone else that could reach or pass 28 (that isn't already there) doesn't.

Lowell owns the tiebreaker against UNH and Maine. So if Lowell loses out and UNH wins out, Lowell would finish no lower than 6th I believe.

Todd
02-19-2012, 12:46 AM
Lowell owns the tiebreaker against UNH and Maine. So if Lowell loses out and UNH wins out, Lowell would finish no lower than 6th I believe.
But those aren't the only teams potentially involved. Going into the night (it's moot now), if UML were at 28, that would also include being swept by PC, who could also be in the mix of a tie at 28. If UML were tied w/ UNH and PC at 28, they could fall behind both. Adding Maine into that mix still allowed UML to be lowest of the four. They might not, but they might.

Patronick
02-19-2012, 02:06 AM
But those aren't the only teams potentially involved. Going into the night (it's moot now), if UML were at 28, that would also include being swept by PC, who could also be in the mix of a tie at 28. If UML were tied w/ UNH and PC at 28, they could fall behind both. Adding Maine into that mix still allowed UML to be lowest of the four. They might not, but they might.

Ah, very well.

Todd
02-19-2012, 02:22 AM
--- Home Lock - 34 (ME/MC) ---
BC 31 - 39 [1-6]
UML 30 - 38 [1-6]
BU 29 - 37 [1-6]
ME 28 - 34 [1-7]
MC 26 - 34 [1-7]
--- In - 26 (UNH/UMA/NU) ---
PC 23 - 31 [1-9]
UNH 22 - 28 [4-9]
--- Home Eligible - 28 (ME) ---
UMA 18 - 26 [5-9]
NU 18 - 26 [6-9]
--- Out - 18 (UMA/NU) ---
UVM 7 - 15 [10]

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
BC - @PC/PC, UVMx2
UML - @MC/MC, @PC/PC
BU - @UVMx2, NU/@NU
ME - @NUx2, UNH
MC - UML/@UML, @UMA/UMA
PC - BC/@BC, UML/@UML
UNH - @UMAx2, @ME
UMA - UNHx2, MC/@MC
NU - MEx2, @BU/BU
UVM - BUx2, @BCx2


Except for BC's sweep of MC, the whole league split the weekend, even if the 0-0-2 PC/NU series was an unusual way to pull it off. So BC picks up two points on everyone, MC loses two points on everyone, and two more games are by the boards - making the standings that much more likely to remain as they are.

BC moves up to where PC's max has dropped, but with the tb TBD next week, BC could still be seeded behind the Friars. That leaves BC's range as it was, 1-6.

PC can still be in first with that BC tb by winning out, having BC lose out, UML and BU get no more than 1 pt each (PC would own UML tb, but loses H2H tb w/ BU), ME no more than 2 (with only 3 games left) and MC no more than 5 pts. On the flip side of the coin, they could still be caught by both UNH, NU and UMA, so they haven't even wrapped up a playoff spot yet. PC's range, still 1-9.

UML's win puts them out of reach of UNH, so they will now be at least 6th.

Other than losing the tb to UML and, of course, not earning any points tonight while others around them did, BU's fortunes are about where they were before the night. 1-6. Despite my noting last night that with the UML weekend finished, on paper, BU looks to have an easy road ahead, they will be playing a UVM team who is now a definite 10th, with nothing to play for but pride, spoiler and Senior Night. BU has to face UVM in their last weekend at the Gut before the Cats go to BC to wrap up their year. After that, BU will play H&H with an NU team that may be playing for their life. The last two seasons, one of these teams has killed the other off, once in this final RS weekend, the other in the QFs. The prior year, BU caught NU for first on the final Sunday, after NU had led the season wire-to-wire. It's just that NU's wire ended on Saturday, when BU was one point back with one game left on their schedule and NU in the clubhouse. The seniors will have lived through all of that. There will be bad blood there. That's why the games aren't determined on paper, but on the ice.

ME could still be caught by UNH, and in a tie at 28, UNH would have claimed the tb in the final game. That leaves Maine vulnerable to 7th and UNH still mathematically alive for 4th.

MC could still be caught by either or both of NU and UMA. As noted last night, if UMA were to catch MC, UNH could not (and v.v), so MC can't be lower than 8th. At 26, MC's record against UMA would be 1-2-0, NU 2-0-1, UNH 1-1-1, PC 1-2-0.

H2H w/ UMA at 26, MC comes out the loser, but both NU (who can't be higher) and UNH (see prior comment) would be behind, so MC would be no lower than 7th, pending PC.

H2H vs NU at 26, MC is on top, but might also be behind UNH (since UMA didn't reach 26). Still a possible 7th ahead of both NU and UMA (and UVM).

In a three-way tie with UMA and NU, MC would be 3-2-1. With a H2H UMA/NU tb at 1-1-1, that puts UMA also at 3-2-1 and NU being last at 1-3-2. That trio would be seeded UMA, MC, NU. UNH would be lower due to UMA hitting 26. PC pending. MC lowest possible at 7th.

Basically, for MC, not only must they be ahead of at least one of UMA or UNH, but there's no multi-way tie that includes NU where NU's record against UMA, UNH or PC overcomes their 0-2-1 hole vs MC. NU can't be seeded ahead of MC. That leaves MC no lower than 7th and NU no higher than 6th. UMA, since they can catch MC and hold the tb, could still be 5th.

Out moves up to 18 with NU and UMA's results.

With the 9th place team still able to get as high as 25 (lower teams win out except for 1/3 UNH/UMA split), the In line is still 26.

Home Ice is still catching ME at 28.

Home Lock drops tonight however. Even though ME is two ahead of MC, they only have three games left to MC's four. With both teams losing tonight, that puts both of their maxes at 34. That's as high as the 4th place team, whoever it night be, can get, so Home Lock drops to 34.

smitre
02-23-2012, 06:08 PM
Glad I finally found this thread. One of my favorites each season.

Todd
02-24-2012, 03:32 PM
--- Home Lock - 34 (ME/MC) ---
BC 31 - 39 [1-6]
UML 30 - 38 [1-6]
BU 29 - 37 [1-6]
ME 28 - 34 [1-7]
MC 26 - 34 [1-7]
--- In - 26 (UNH/UMA/NU) ---
PC 23 - 31 [1-9]
UNH 22 - 28 [4-9]
--- Home Eligible - 28 (ME) ---
UMA 18 - 26 [5-9]
NU 18 - 26 [6-9]
--- Out - 18 (UMA/NU) ---
UVM 7 - 15 [10]

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
BC - @PC/PC, UVMx2
UML - @MC/MC, @PC/PC
BU - @UVMx2, NU/@NU
ME - @NUx2, UNH
MC - UML/@UML, @UMA/UMA
PC - BC/@BC, UML/@UML
UNH - @UMAx2, @ME
UMA - UNHx2, MC/@MC
NU - MEx2, @BU/BU
UVM - BUx2, @BCx2


This point in the season, as the combinations of outcomes narrow, looks to be where some decisions start being made. Usually, I work in from either or both ends, but today, I'll start in the middle.

As noted in last weekend's wrap-up, PC can still get first, but by some very slim margins. Since they are playing BC tonight, they have a hand in keeping their hopes for Home Ice, let alone a top seed, alive. By the time either tonight or this weekend is over, PC could have picked up enough points to have clinched not only a playoff spot, but have their current 6th be their bottom possible ranking. They could pass MC and be a point behind ME with a game in hand. Should that happen, they would be holding their Home Ice fate in their hands on the final weekend.

At the other end of the spectrum, PC needs very little to get ahead of the maxes of both UMA (2-0-1 PC tb) and NU (0-1-2 PC tb). In fact, even though they haven't clinched a playoff spot yet, PC could get swept and still clinch 7th by Saturday night - or split and clinch before the other games start on Saturday. With UNH and UMA playing two at Mullins, one will surely ding the other. Whether PC is hoping for UMA to keep UNH at bay, or UNH to drop UMA's max depends in part on whether PC is picking up points or not in their own games (and how NU is doing against Maine).

Basically, if PC wins, they can take some positives from all of the other matchups, regardless of outcome, except perhaps BU/UVM. If PC loses, there's bad news from the same scoreboard-watching results.

The other side of that series is BC. Depending on how the weekend breaks, the Eagles could not only leave 6th and 5th in the dust - clinching Home Ice - but get as high as clinching at least a 2. They could also be in 4th place and in danger of dropping out of the Home Ice derby.

With only two weekends and four - or even three - games remaining for everyone, no team has wrapped up a Home Ice slot yet. That could end tonight. A BC win and either a ME or MC loss would give BC Home Ice. Losses by both ME and MC with a BC win means the Eagles clinch no lower than 3rd.

A Merrimack loss would mean a UML win. With 32 points then in the bank and MC's max having dropped to 32, the only way UML would be vulnerable to miss Home Ice would be to come out on the losing end of a tie with MC and perhaps any of the other top five (none of the others can hit 32) at precisely 32. Since UML holds the tbs with BU and ME (both 2-1-0) and would have taken the first two games with MC, there's no way that they drop behind all of the other teams in a potential tie, even if we include BC (1-2-0), at 32. As long as they stay ahead of one (if not all) of them, they are no lower than 4th. Two ties should have a similar impact on their tb status among those same teams, so two points for UML this weekend - however they do it - and they clinch Home Ice. Throw in a ME loss to that mix and the Hawks are at least 3rd.

The other side of that coin? UML could also be 5th (losing the tb to MC at 30) and have to face off against a PC team that could drop them to 6th.

BU's path has more variables, but they, too, could clinch as high as 3rd or drop down to 5th. Like PC's status with most of the rest of the league, how BU sees the UML/MC series will depend on whether they are winning or losing. If BU wins, nothing but positives from UML/MC. If BU loses, it will see the negative.

If ME and MC each win out, they tie at 34. MC has the tb - pretty handily at 2-0-1 - so, of the two, it seems like they control their own fate. However, there are three other teams that still might be tied with them at 34, and those tbs are all over the place. Until we know who could - or couldn't - be in that mix, neither of these teams has their Home Ice prospects in their own hands. Of course, should either stumble, then they cede control to the other squad.

Like UML/MC in the top half, UNH/UMA will impact the bottom half. Once we know how that goes, we'll not only know more about where those two teams might end up, we'll also know more about the chances of those around them. Like PC above those two, NU below them will be looking to capitalize by moving up on the loser(s) - in the Huskies' case, with two games at home.

By Sunday, UNH could be as high as 5th (1-1-1 v MC, but 12 wins to 11 at 26 pts), or in a three-way tie for not-in-the-playoffs (temporarily in the 8th slot by a half game either way). Any points not earned by UNH or gained by Maine and the 'Cats are shut out of Home Ice. Any points not earned by UMA, or gained by MC, and UMA can no longer reach 5th. (NU can already not catch MC.) Since at least one of UNH or UMA, if not both, have to miss out on points tonight, something's got to give.

As noted, UVM is playing out the string for pride alone.

Todd
02-25-2012, 01:12 AM
BC 33 - 39 [1-4]
--- Home Lock - 32 (ME) ---
BU 31 - 37 [1-5]
UML 30 - 36 [1-5]
MC 28 - 34 [1-7]
ME 28 - 32 [2-7]
UNH 24 - 28 [4-8]
--- In - 24 (UMA) ---
PC 23 - 29 [4-9]
--- Home Eligible - 28 (MC/ME) ---
NU 20 - 26 [6-9]
UMA 18 - 24 [7-9]
--- Out - 20 (NU) ---
UVM 7 - 13 [10]

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
BC - PC, UVMx2
BU - @UVM, NU/@NU
UML - MC, @PC/PC
MC - @UML, @UMA/UMA
ME - @NU, UNH
UNH - @UMA, @ME
PC - @BC, UML/@UML
NU - ME, @BU/BU
UMA - UNH, MC/@MC
UVM - BU, @BCx2


With BC's win and ME's loss, the Eagles could now be caught by only three other teams. That means they can't fall lower than 4th and have locked up a Home Ice spot. Since BC can't fall behind ME, that also means that ME can't pass BC. ME can get no higher than 2nd.

With PC's loss, UML is now out of reach of the Friars, meaning that the River Hawks can't drop below 5th. Add in BU's win and the Terriers, too, can get no lower than 5th.

For both MC and ME, they could still end up losing a tb that includes UNH at 28. Since PC can still get to 29 and either of MC or ME can pass 28, that means that if either MC or ME stays at 28, they could be 7th.

In a four-way tie at 28, UNH would get the final Home Ice slot, so they can still reach 4th. At the other end of the scale, UNH owns all the H2H tbs with the teams behind them in a way that there's no combination of ties at 24 that would put UNH looking up at the playoffs from 9th. UNH has therefore clinched a spot in the post-season. Congrats Wildcats. How can UNH win all of these tbs and yet be mired in the middle of the standings? They're a combined 1-8-0 vs the top three.

Coming into the night, PC still had a shot at 1st. Now they can get no higher than 4th. They could still fall to 9th.

Before tonight, NU couldn't reach 5th because of tbs. Now they simply can't reach it. They're still 6-9.

For the same reasons that UNH can't fall to 9th, UMA can't rise past 7th.

UVM... this year's Generalissimo Francisco Franco (http://www.hulu.com/watch/1426/saturday-night-live-the-death-of-franco) - still dead (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generalissimo_Francisco_Franco_is_still_dead).

claver2010
02-25-2012, 08:08 AM
Any way BC can clinch tonight? My initial thought is no (closest is if BC wins & BU loses but BU has tie breaker) but I didn't run all the permutations

Onion Man
02-25-2012, 08:26 AM
Any way BC can clinch tonight? My initial thought is no (closest is if BC wins & BU loses but BU has tie breaker) but I didn't run all the permutations

Boston Coll. cant clinch until next Friday the earliest as BU owns the tiebreaker.

sterlippo1
02-25-2012, 08:37 AM
Any way BC can clinch tonight? My initial thought is no (closest is if BC wins & BU loses but BU has tie breaker) but I didn't run all the permutations

your initial thought is correct. We are far from clinching, it cant happen this weekend............. as long as BU wins, we have to win. even if we win today and BU loses tonight we still dont clinch vs them and if we lose out and BU loses out and UML(or Mack because they play each other) wins out they pass us too. A win today by us and a Mack win tonight and it goes down to BC-BU next week i think:confused:...............................and, i think i just confused myself:eek::D

Onion Man
02-25-2012, 08:41 AM
your initial thought is correct. We are far from clinching, it cant happen this weekend............. as long as BU wins, we have to win. even if we win today and BU loses tonight we still dont clinch vs them and if we lose out and BU loses out and UML(or Mack because they play each other) wins out they pass us too. A win today by us and a Mack win tonight and it goes down to BC-BU next week i think:confused:...............................and, i think i just confused myself:eek::D

BC needs just 1 point over its last 3 games to eliminate Lowell.