Tournament Speculation Thread

[DH003325]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

I will make my annual prediction that I am almost never wrong on: The NCAA will do something in that smoke-filled room that nobody predicts in any scenario.

[one_to7]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Buffalo State getting ranked puts Plattsburgh in a great position to steal the #3 spot away should the Cards beat Oswego and Amherst lose. Even if Amherst wins the NESCAC I could still see Plattsburgh jumping with a win over Oswego.

Williams and Middlebury both tied Plattsburgh (Midd also lost.) Those two, as well as Bowdoin, are ranked teams. I just don't see a way that Amerst beats two ranked teams, at least one of whom gets them a common opponents edge on Plattsburgh, and falls behind the Cardinals if they both win their league titles.

Now things would get interesting if Amherst loses to Williams, but if the Lord Jeffs at least make the NESCAC title game they should be assured they'll finish above Plattsburgh regardless of what the Cardinals do against Oswego.

[llama]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

All true and valid points. I certainly think Platty can skate with anyone and beat anyone on a given night. While the numbers you put up certainly favor your argument, when I think Platty, I don't think run and gun. I think of a strong defense first philosophy coupled with a cycle the puck and control time of possession mentality.

Just my two cents.

PSU is #25 in the country in goals for and #4 in goals against...not exactly the stats you think of to qualify a "run and gun" team. Plattsburgh can beat anyone in the country on any given night, but I would argue their best chances of going deep in the tourney hinge on their abiltiy to stop other elite teams from playing run and gun...not their prowess at playing that style of game.

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

PSU is #25 in the country in goals for and #4 in goals against...not exactly the stats you think of to qualify a "run and gun" team. Plattsburgh can beat anyone in the country on any given night, but I would argue their best chances of going deep in the tourney hinge on their abiltiy to stop other elite teams from playing run and gun...not their prowess at playing that style of game.

Did you read anything I wrote? Plattsburgh is the 4th most average SOG team out of all the ranked teams (East-didn't look up West). They don't get so many shots on goal from playing defense and shooting the puck down the ice from their own end. Williams was next in line, and after seeing their 3 for 1 special they give their goaltending, that number is a joke to me. Plattsburghs best chance is finishing their chances, period. Goaltending and team defense will take care of itself. You have to finish your chances when you're playing top teams, something Norwich and Oswego do well (look at the average shots to get a goal stat) and something Plattsburgh does NOT. When it takes you pretty much 11 shots to get a goal compared to some who are around 7or 8, that's a HUGE difference. If Plattsburgh can bury a chance early and not get in the "here we go again" attitude they will be just fine. Even down by a goal or so if they can just score one to give them life, they will make a game out of anyone. That and composure. They have been probably the worst 3rd period team Ive seen at Plattsburgh in a while. While teams like Norwich and Oswego can put teams away, Plattsburgh tends to let the inferior teams hang around and feed off of the emotion of still being in the game (Brockport, Potsdam, Williams Fredonia, Cortland) All games in which Plattsburgh had a massive SOG advantage and territorial advantage going into the 3rd period, but collapsed. Why? Not because of goaltending, but because they stopped pushing the offensive tempo and allowed the other team to be in the game. That's exactly the problem, instead of taking it to the opponents Plattsburgh goes into defensive shell mode and panics. Once their backs are against the wall they normally make the last push.

[llama]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

I did read your post and found your comments insightful. You are clearly someone who is passionate about your team and has studied their season closely. I just have a different perspective - which doesn't mean either of us is right or wrong...just different.

I'm not so sure all their SOG come from a "run and gun" style of hockey. Teams with high SOG counts can also be getting the puck deep and smothering a team with a forecheck that focuses on cycling the puck and throwing everything at the net and hammering away at the crease. Back when I played against Plattsburgh, that was what they were known for. They could fly when given the chance and had guys with tons of skill, but they were not going to go after odd-man rushes at the expense of leaving themselves exposed back up ice. I think about Plattsburgh more in the way "Ozz" does...a team that has taking care of their own end as their priority....and looks to get the puck low and keep it there on offense.

As I mentioned previously, if they go deep it will not be becasue they finally figured out how to score goals in a wide-open, run and gun style...it will be because they are able to control the game and play their style of hockey. I very much agree with you that to succeed they'll need to finish their chances...I think that applies to any team still playing at this time of year. To that point, I would almost guarentee they are spending a great deal of time these days on their power play (#38 in the country - ouch). They clearly have an amazing penalty kill (and take very few penalties)....but if they can take that power play going it could be the thing that makes a difference for them.

Did you read anything I wrote? Plattsburgh is the 4th most average SOG team out of all the ranked teams (East-didn't look up West). They don't get so many shots on goal from playing defense and shooting the puck down the ice from their own end. Williams was next in line, and after seeing their 3 for 1 special they give their goaltending, that number is a joke to me. Plattsburghs best chance is finishing their chances, period. Goaltending and team defense will take care of itself. You have to finish your chances when you're playing top teams, something Norwich and Oswego do well (look at the average shots to get a goal stat) and something Plattsburgh does NOT. When it takes you pretty much 11 shots to get a goal compared to some who are around 7or 8, that's a HUGE difference. If Plattsburgh can bury a chance early and not get in the "here we go again" attitude they will be just fine. Even down by a goal or so if they can just score one to give them life, they will make a game out of anyone. That and composure. They have been probably the worst 3rd period team Ive seen at Plattsburgh in a while. While teams like Norwich and Oswego can put teams away, Plattsburgh tends to let the inferior teams hang around and feed off of the emotion of still being in the game (Brockport, Potsdam, Williams Fredonia, Cortland) All games in which Plattsburgh had a massive SOG advantage and territorial advantage going into the 3rd period, but collapsed. Why? Not because of goaltending, but because they stopped pushing the offensive tempo and allowed the other team to be in the game. That's exactly the problem, instead of taking it to the opponents Plattsburgh goes into defensive shell mode and panics. Once their backs are against the wall they normally make the last push.

PSU is #25 in the country in goals for and #4 in goals against...not exactly the stats you think of to qualify a "run and gun" team. Plattsburgh can beat anyone in the country on any given night, but I would argue their best chances of going deep in the tourney hinge on their abiltiy to stop other elite teams from playing run and gun...not their prowess at playing that style of game.

[admiral0417]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Williams and Middlebury both tied Plattsburgh (Midd also lost.) Those two, as well as Bowdoin, are ranked teams. I just don't see a way that Amerst beats two ranked teams, at least one of whom gets them a common opponents edge on Plattsburgh, and falls behind the Cardinals if they both win their league titles.

Now things would get interesting if Amherst loses to Williams, but if the Lord Jeffs at least make the NESCAC title game they should be assured they'll finish above Plattsburgh regardless of what the Cardinals do against Oswego.

Really?? I think it's a no-brainer that Plattsburgh leapfrogs Amherst if they win in Oswego, or perhaps even if Amherst does not win NESCAC tourney. Too bad for the Cards that the "ranked" opponents they have played (Norwich 2X, Oswego 3X, etc.) don't count any more than playing "ranked" opponents on Amherst's schedule. I wonder what the Jeffs record would be with Cards schedule???

Plattsburgh also plays in a have/have not conference while parity abounds in the mediocre NESCAC. Lastly, the powers that be will have to look at the $$ potential of Plattsburgh hosting. Count on it.

[AldenPartridge1819]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Really?? I think it's a no-brainer that Plattsburgh leapfrogs Amherst if they win in Oswego...Count on it.

Good luck with that.

[NUProf]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Really?? I think it's a no-brainer that Plattsburgh leapfrogs Amherst if they win in Oswego, or perhaps even if Amherst does not win NESCAC tourney. Too bad for the Cards that the "ranked" opponents they have played (Norwich 2X, Oswego 3X, etc.) don't count any more than playing "ranked" opponents on Amherst's schedule. I wonder what the Jeffs record would be with Cards schedule???

Plattsburgh also plays in a have/have not conference while parity abounds in the mediocre NESCAC. Lastly, the powers that be will have to look at the $$ potential of Plattsburgh hosting. Count on it.

Here is a link to a very clear explanation of what is and is not considered in this process

Link to another D3 Hockey site

[peddler]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Here is a link to a very clear explanation of what is and is not considered in this process

Link to another D3 Hockey site

Thanks Prof

[norm1909]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Here is a link to a very clear explanation of what is and is not considered in this process

Link to another D3 Hockey site

But alas, as long as "The final regional rankings (which are not made public) will be created Sunday, March 4, just before the national committee holds their conference call to select the field. These rankings will provide the foundation for the Pool C selections." applies, everything else might just as well be smoke and mirrors,

[peddler]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

But alas, as long as "The final regional rankings (which are not made public) will be created Sunday, March 4, just before the national committee holds their conference call to select the field. These rankings will provide the foundation for the Pool C selections." applies, everything else might just as well be smoke and mirrors,

If the "smoke and mirrors" wasn't part of this, do you think we'd all spend as much time each year trying to guess the outcome, which (as Josh put it) "To our knowledge, no one has ever correctly predicted every single participant, pairing and host institution with 100% accuracy prior to the announcement of the field" ?

[norm1909]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

If the "smoke and mirrors" wasn't part of this, do you think we'd all spend as much time each year trying to guess the outcome, which (as Josh put it) "To our knowledge, no one has ever correctly predicted every single participant, pairing and host institution with 100% accuracy prior to the announcement of the field" ?

That is true - but, nevertheless, still not an excuse for not making such an important component secret

[peddler]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

That is true - but, nevertheless, still not an excuse for not making such an important component secret

Since when has the NCAA needed "excuses"?

[Russell Jaslow]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Here we go again with their mighty OOC record. He was meaning because both teams normally play a defensive style, not the run and gun you see from Oswegos, Norwich and Plattsburghs. Not saying they are "no good", just the defensive style is not normally a fun game to watch.

Can't possibly be as bad as that recent Devils-Rangers game...

[Russell Jaslow]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Here we go again with their mighty OOC record. He was meaning because both teams normally play a defensive style, not the run and gun you see from Oswegos, Norwich and Plattsburghs. Not saying they are "no good", just the defensive style is not normally a fun game to watch.

Can't possibly be as bad as that recent Devils-Rangers game...