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2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

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  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

    Originally posted by Numbers View Post
    With Priceless' permission, I am going to go through all this again, now that the night's results are in: First, current PWR. I don't really care what the bracket would look like, so we will just list the PWR. (By the way, anyone can access it here, or on other sites as well.)

    1-BC; 2-Mich; 3-UMD; 4-Ferris
    5-Miami; 6-Lowell; 7-BU; 8-Minn
    9-UND; 10-Union; 11-Maine; 12-Denver
    13-Cornell; 14-Mich State; 15-Western Mich;
    16-Merrimack; 17-No Mich; 18-No Dame; 19-Colo Coll

    Of these , the following have games tomorrow night:
    Ferris v Bowling Green; Lowell v Providence; BU v New Hampshire
    Maine v Merrimack; Denver v Wisconsin; Colo Coll v Mich Tech

    So, what are everyone's chances?
    BC -Almost guaranteed the overall #1
    Mich - Most likely a #1 or a high #2, depending on results next weekend.
    UMD - Will end up a #1 or a #2, depending on next weekend
    Ferris and Miami - I haven't tried, but it looks hard to get them out right now.
    Lowell and BU - Same. There is not enough upward mobility left on the bubble for them to fall very far.
    Minnesota - In. Could end up as high as #3 overall, if they win the MacNaughton next weekend.
    No Dakota - Almost certainly in. And, this is why. They would probably have to lose 5 more comparisons to fall out of the field. The DU compare is a possibility. It is hard to create a scenario in which they lose both the Union and Cornell compares. Same with Maine and Merrimack. So, almost certainly in.
    Union and Cornell - One win next week and they are in. Might be in without that.
    Maine - Could lose several compares if they lose to Merrimack tomorrow night. Win, and they are in. Lose, and it's a big ??
    Denver - If they beat Wisco tomorrow, they are all but in. I really think they are in, but I don't have time right now to run all the possibilities. Losing opens the door to losing comparisons with WestMich, Cornell, and Merrimack, and then being just on the wrong side of the bubble.
    Merrimack - Needs a win tomorrow, and then might still have work to do.
    Western Mich - Needs at least a win at the Joe
    Mich State, and No Mich - Need to pull for all favorites in HE, ECAC and WCHA to win. And, for Merrimack and Western specifically to lose.
    Everyone else needs to win their conference tourney. So, LSSU, Notre Dame, Colo Coll are out.

    Hope this helps. Anyone with other thoughts, please add them.

    Numbers.
    Gophers won the MacNaughton, I think you meant to write the Broadmoor trophy

    Comment


    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

      Originally posted by irishfan85 View Post
      Priceless,
      What are Maine's chances of making it in if they lose tomorrow night to MC?
      I'm not Priceless, but what I get is that, to be out of the field, one of the following needs to happen:

      1)3 of the 4 major conferences would need to have upset winners.

      2)Denver wins tomorrow night, and wins one game at the X; Cornell and Union at least split; and 2 of the 4 major conferences have upset winners.

      The reason for all this is that even with a loss tomorrow, the compare with Merrimack doesn't quite flip yet. And, Merrimack splitting at the HE tourney doesn't turn it either.

      So, Maine is in a pretty solid position.
      Last edited by Numbers; 03-10-2012, 11:29 PM. Reason: Add Denver scenario

      Comment


      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

        Originally posted by IronRangeHockey View Post
        Gophers won the MacNaughton, I think you meant to write the Broadmoor trophy
        Thank you. I shall not change that - because I don't want to be guilty of hiding my errors.

        Comment


        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

          So if Ferris hangs on tomorrow I'll have to root for Michigan for a third straight game? Boooooooooooo

          I'm guessing I'd also have to become a Ferris or Miami fan for the consolation too?
          Go Green! Go White! Go State!

          1966, 1986, 2007

          Go Tigers, Go Packers, Go Red Wings, Go Pistons

          Comment


          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

            Originally posted by Numbers View Post
            I'm not Priceless, but what I get is that, to be out of the field, 3 of the 4 major conferences would need to have upset winners. So, I would call that pretty good.
            Spoilers to the party?

            CCHA: Bowling Green
            ECAC: Harvard, Yale, Quinnipiac, Colgate
            Hockey East: New Hampshire, Providence
            WCHA: Michigan Tech, Wisconsin, SCSU

            I believe those are the only teams that can still win their conference tournament that would knock out a top 15 team in the Pairwise.
            North Dakota
            National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

            Comment


            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

              Originally posted by Numbers View Post
              Thank you. I shall not change that - because I don't want to be guilty of hiding my errors.

              You could always edit and note your reason for editing.
              North Dakota
              National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

              Comment


              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                1 Boston Coll (HE) 30 0.5752
                2 Michigan (CC) 29 0.5637
                3 Minn-Duluth (WC) 28 0.5523
                4 Ferris State (CC) 27 0.5539
                5 Miami (CC) 25 0.5514
                6 Mass-Lowell (HE) 25 0.5485
                7 Boston Univ (HE) 24 0.5482
                8 Minnesota (WC) 23 0.5520
                9 North Dakota (WC) 22 0.5460
                10 Union (EC) 21 0.5501
                11 Maine (HE) 20 0.5426
                12 Denver U (WC) 19 0.5402
                13 Cornell (EC) 19 0.5394
                14 Mich State (CC) 16 0.5364
                15 Western Mich (CC) 16 0.5351
                ---
                16 Merrimack (HE) 16 0.5335
                17 Northern Mich (CC) 14 0.5316


                Code:
                Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay
                Minn-Duluth	Boston C	Michigan	Ferris St
                Lowell		Boston U	Minnesota	Miami
                Union		No Dakota	Maine		Denver
                Mich St		W Mich		AHA Champ	Cornell

                Niagara 0.5053
                Air Force 0.5035
                Bemidji State* 0.5029
                New Hampshire 0.5028
                ---
                Mass-Amherst* 0.4982
                RIT 0.4980
                Yale 0.4976
                Michigan Tech 0.4963

                Comment


                • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                  Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
                  Spoilers to the party?

                  CCHA: Bowling Green
                  ECAC: Harvard, Yale, Quinnipiac, Colgate
                  Hockey East: New Hampshire, Providence
                  WCHA: Michigan Tech, Wisconsin, SCSU

                  I believe those are the only teams that can still win their conference tournament that would knock out a top 15 team in the Pairwise.
                  I agree, except that since MSU, West Mich, and Merrimack are all tied at #14, either Western Michigan or Merrimack would have to count in your list as well, FS23.

                  Comment


                  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                    Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                    I agree, except that since MSU, West Mich, and Merrimack are all tied at #14, either Western Michigan or Merrimack would have to count in your list as well, FS23.
                    I'm pretty sure they would crack the top 15 if they were to win their conference tournament.
                    North Dakota
                    National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

                    Comment


                    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                      Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
                      I'm pretty sure they would crack the top 15 if they were to win their conference tournament.
                      Correct, but then someone above them would fall from the top 15. I guess it's a matter of semantics - that is, what you meant. Also, I think it may be true for those schools that winning their conference championship might be their only way in.

                      Comment


                      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                        Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                        Correct, but then someone above them would fall from the top 15. I guess it's a matter of semantics - that is, what you meant. Also, I think it may be true for those schools that winning their conference championship might be their only way in.
                        I was speaking in terms of the top 15 when the season ends, not necessarily the current top 15 (although it could be the identical set of teams).

                        I don't believe that any of those 10 schools can make it in without winning their conference tournament.
                        North Dakota
                        National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

                        Comment


                        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                          Originally posted by Spartanforlife4 View Post
                          So if Ferris hangs on tomorrow I'll have to root for Michigan for a third straight game? Boooooooooooo

                          I'm guessing I'd also have to become a Ferris or Miami fan for the consolation too?
                          First things first, Spartan. Be a Maine fan tomorrow. If they win, you are safe from Merrimack and Northern Michigan. Then, it's just a matter of no party crashers, and you're good.

                          Comment


                          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                            How safe is Maine if they lose tomorrow??

                            Comment


                            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                              Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                              First things first, Spartan. Be a Maine fan tomorrow. If they win, you are safe from Merrimack and Northern Michigan. Then, it's just a matter of no party crashers, and you're good.
                              Ok, so #1 Go Black Bears!

                              #2: How is Northern still in it? What could possibly be the strange combination of comparisons that they need to win to move them into the top 15?
                              Go Green! Go White! Go State!

                              1966, 1986, 2007

                              Go Tigers, Go Packers, Go Red Wings, Go Pistons

                              Comment


                              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                                Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                                With Priceless' permission, I am going to go through all this again, now that the night's results are in: First, current PWR. I don't really care what the bracket would look like, so we will just list the PWR. (By the way, anyone can access it here, or on other sites as well.)
                                You hardly need my permission...you've really developed quite a knack for this!

                                The lowest I can get Maine if they lose tomorrow is 15th. Even with a loss tomorrow, the Black Bears easily win comparisons vs the four CCHA teams that would be behind them (MSU, NMU, ND, OSU) So, barring one of those conference winners FS23 listed, Maine is in the tournament. In fact, it looks like the field is down to the 15 teams that are currently in the top 15, plus Merrimack and NMU jockeying for position with Western Michigan. As long as there are no conference upsets, those three teams constitute the bubble. Everyone else appears to be in.

                                Comment

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