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FireKnight
03-16-2012, 11:56 PM
Is Cornell still in?

Cornell keeps jumping around between 13 and 14 with every result posted. A Western win tomorrow night would likely drop them to 14, but only Harvard and the AHA representative "could" steal automatic bids out of the top 16. I'm not doing the math to figure out what all the consolations and finals could do, but I imagine Cornell better win tomorrow if they want to play next weekend.

JimDahl
03-17-2012, 12:07 AM
I'm more of a math guy than a computer guy... but couldn't someone with the skills make a pretty easy program that runs every possibly outcome and tells you what percent of those outcomes have Team X in the field? There's what, 4.7 million or so possible outcomes at the beginning? You can't tell me one of you RPI geeks doesn't have a computer with decent enough power to set up a program and run it for like 5 minutes and have it spit out the % of times each team is in out of 4.7 million.

Or am I totally off base?

Yep. I first tried this season to adapt my Monte Carlo code that I've been using the last 4-5 seasons to do exhaustive searches during tournaments, so it's been a little slow developing, but I think it's been working the past couple weeks. Here's my latest run:
Friday night final PWR outlook (http://blog.siouxsports.com/2012/03/16/friday-night-final-pwr-outlook/)

I wouldn't bet your rent money on that, because it is relatively untested vis-a-vis the underlying core (that I've used for Monte Carlos for years), but it seems to have held up well the past couple weeks.

amherstblackbear
03-17-2012, 12:24 AM
Yep. I first tried this season to adapt my Monte Carlo code that I've been using the last 4-5 seasons to do exhaustive searches during tournaments, so it's been a little slow developing, but I think it's been working the past couple weeks. Here's my latest run:
Friday night final PWR outlook (http://blog.siouxsports.com/2012/03/16/friday-night-final-pwr-outlook/)

I wouldn't bet your rent money on that, because it is relatively untested vis-a-vis the underlying core (that I've used for Monte Carlos for years), but it seems to have held up well the past couple weeks.

Thanks - great stuff.

broncos24
03-17-2012, 12:32 AM
What are the scenarios that leaves WMU on the outside looking in?

J.D.
03-17-2012, 01:13 AM
With one day to go:

Worcester:

1. BC
2. Denver
3. BU
4. Atlantic Hockey

GB:

1. Michigan
2. UMD
3. UML
4. Cornell

Bridgeport:

1. Union
2. Maine
3. Miami
4. Michigan State

St. Paul:

1. North Dakota
2. Ferris State
3. Minnesota
4. Western Michigan

Numbers
03-17-2012, 01:19 AM
What are the scenarios that leaves WMU on the outside looking in?

Easiest to find are these two:

1) Harvard wins, Cornell and Colgate tie.

2)Harvard wins (raises the cut line to 14th); Air Force wins (If RIT wins, they take their own comparison with MSU, and that is good news for Western); Cornell wins

MagnessMan
03-17-2012, 01:26 AM
With one day to go:

Worcester:

1. BC
2. Denver
3. BU
4. Atlantic Hockey

GB:

1. Michigan
2. UMD
3. UML
4. Cornell

Bridgeport:

1. Union
2. Maine
3. Miami
4. Michigan State

St. Paul:

1. North Dakota
2. Ferris State
3. Minnesota
4. Western Michigan

My guess would be that they wouldn't put the gophs and the sioux at the X together--one would go to GB. Sioux may have sealed STP with the W tonight. DU would be better off as far away from BC as they can get. I don't doubt that we'll have to fly east like we did two years ago. Some other WCHA team might have to go east too--Bulldogs?. I also doubt they would put AF and DU in the same bracket. Throw the Cadets at BC! We'll know soon.

brassbonanza
03-17-2012, 01:33 AM
What's the mileage rule for flying/busing the committee uses? Orono to Bridgeport is right on the cusp of 400 miles.

Patman
03-17-2012, 02:10 AM
What's the mileage rule for flying/busing the committee uses? Orono to Bridgeport is right on the cusp of 400 miles.

Really? Most of those rules are just excuses to do things.

If Maine to bridgeport keeps them east then it's done. Besides, we both know there is no reasonable flight between those two points... What Portland to Hartford?!?! Really?

LTsatch
03-17-2012, 09:42 AM
Harvard's goalie Girrard has been a circus act for the last four games and with their NHL type D-Men they may ride him right to the tourney.
Hate to say it, but I hope they win tonight.

Chris_NH
03-17-2012, 09:52 AM
Sioux may have sealed STP with the W tonight. DU would be better off as far away from BC as they can get.

Two teams ABSOLUTELY happy to be as 'Far away from BC as they can get' are Miami and North Dakota. Denver, maybe. But those two schools wake up in a cold sweat when BC is within 100 miles.

Alton
03-17-2012, 10:21 AM
What's the mileage rule for flying/busing the committee uses? Orono to Bridgeport is right on the cusp of 400 miles.

The NCAA pays for a flight if the drive is more than 400 miles using their official calculator (Microsoft Streets and Trips software). They have their calculator up on the website--

https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/TES/exec/miles

which indicates that Maine is 392 miles from the Bridgeport Arena. The NCAA would save a little money by not having to pay for a flight with Maine in an Eastern regional. Unlike some other smaller sports, the NCAA no longer has a "minimize flights" rule for hockey, so the drive v flight rule doesn't constrain the hockey committee.

Spartanforlife4
03-17-2012, 10:21 AM
If RPI is the tiebreaker then it looks like it all comes down to Air Force needing to win for MSU to get in. Even if WMU and Harvard win MSU should still get in over NMU due to RPI and Merrimack due to comparisons.

Armadillo
03-17-2012, 10:29 AM
My guess would be that they wouldn't put the gophs and the sioux at the X together--one would go to GB. Sioux may have sealed STP with the W tonight. DU would be better off as far away from BC as they can get. I don't doubt that we'll have to fly east like we did two years ago. Some other WCHA team might have to go east too--Bulldogs?. I also doubt they would put AF and DU in the same bracket. Throw the Cadets at BC! We'll know soon.

Of course they'd put the Gophers and Sioux together, because the NCAA would finally have a sold out building!

Even if they did suffer a hemorrhagic stroke and split them up, it'd be UND moving due to UMN hosting the West Regional.

CLS
03-17-2012, 10:36 AM
The NCAA pays for a flight if the drive is more than 400 miles using their official calculator (Microsoft Streets and Trips software). They have their calculator up on the website--

https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/TES/exec/miles
which indicates that Maine is 392 miles from the Bridgeport Arena. The NCAA would save a little money by not having to pay for a flight with Maine in an Eastern regional. Unlike some other smaller sports, the NCAA no longer has a "minimize flights" rule for hockey, so the drive v flight rule doesn't constrain the hockey committee.Alton, you are amazing. On this board we have people who can quote chapter and verse of the NCAA handbook, and others who can figure out the PWR effect of a blown offside call in Houghton on the chances that Assumption will make the Frozen Four.

This is a great day for this forum. Fans of lots of teams are engaged, there's a lot of hockey to be discussed, and I haven't even gotten into the Cafe yet to see the latest political screed.

gdyer
03-17-2012, 11:27 AM
Anyone have a sense of where Harvard would end up if they won, or is it pretty much random for the bottom seeds?

mookie1995
03-17-2012, 11:43 AM
Anyone have a sense of where Harvard would end up if they won, or is it pretty much random for the bottom seeds?

just win baby! :D

more than likely going to finish ahead of aha champ (who would get bc). then hu would get michigan after they win in green bay.

Numbers
03-17-2012, 11:48 AM
Anyone have a sense of where Harvard would end up if they won, or is it pretty much random for the bottom seeds?

It's really simple. If Harvard wins, they will be seeded 15th overall. Then, there are 2 possibilities:

1) Michigan ends up the only CCHA #1 seed. In this case, it goes: BC vs AHA at Worcester, and Michigan vs Harvard at Green Bay (most likely). This same applies if Cornell wins, because then the #4 seeds would be Cornell, someone from CCHA, Harvard, and AHA, so any intraconference matchup conflicts could be fixed without moving Harvard

2) Cornell loses, and Miami or Ferris also gets a #1 seed. In this case, the committee avoids CCHA vs CCHA matchups, so Michigan and Miami/Ferris would have to face AHA champ and Harvard. AHA champ is lower than Harvard, so they get Michigan at Green Bay, and then Harvard gets Miami or Ferris, and that would be at St Paul or Bridgeport, depending on things like NoDak/Denver and Miami/BGSU.

So, in short, Harvard most likely at Green Bay. 2nd most likely, Bridgeport. 3rd, St Paul. And, almost no chance at Worcester.

huskyfan
03-17-2012, 01:00 PM
Alton, you are amazing. On this board we have people who can quote chapter and verse of the NCAA handbook, and others who can figure out the PWR effect of a blown offside call in Houghton on the chances that Assumption will make the Frozen Four.

This is a great day for this forum. Fans of lots of teams are engaged, there's a lot of hockey to be discussed, and I haven't even gotten into the Cafe yet to see the latest political screed.

like

Slash01
03-17-2012, 03:09 PM
Of course they'd put the Gophers and Sioux together, because the NCAA would finally have a sold out building!

Even if they did suffer a hemorrhagic stroke and split them up, it'd be UND moving due to UMN hosting the West Regional.

UND likely will go to St. Paul as a #1 seed if they beat Denver. If Denver wins, they may go to St. Paul as a #1 (some scenarios), unless Miami gets the #4 overall seed, but that's only if several scenarios work out, and and and ........ ! How about they play the games and spare us all some CVAs.