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Patman
03-12-2012, 03:01 PM
But again, it took a season full of other results in which those teams did directly impact to make that RIT/AFA game important to those teams now.

Honestly, it just shows how difficult it is to seperate teams with "winning percentages" between 60 and 65%. That's where most of these teams sit.

NMU8405
03-12-2012, 03:29 PM
But, in short, hypothetically, not talking about Lowell here, but hypothetically, the last team in the tourney could come down to :
Merrimack or Northern Michigan.

Hhhhmmmmm, let's seeee..... Well, In October, NMU played RIT and beat them. Today, RIT beat Air Force in the AHA to just squeak into the TUC group. So, NMU's win against RIT in October now counts huge for them, and they get in over Merrimack. Or, AFA beat RIT, so RIT is not TUC, so there is no extra credit to NMU for beating them, so Merrimack gets in.

The thing is, neither Merrimack or NMU (hypothetically, again) have anything to do the the RIT/AFA game. And, RIT and AFA are playing, and their game decides who gets in, and they don't give a rip about that.

When did NMU play RIT? I have no idea what you are talking about here but NMU has wins over Wisconsin, St Cloud, and Michigan Tech. Also 3 wins over Miami which could help boost them if Miami wins the CCHA. Frankly it comes down to either Western or Cornell losing two games this weekend. Should either split this weekend, then it might come down to Ws over the teams mentioned and how deep they go, but falling short of winning their conf.

gscott13
03-12-2012, 03:36 PM
W T F, Harvard has 11 ties (12 wins)!? :eek:

a buddy of mine's father went to harvard and i was telling him this week about their record and how when you dig deeper, 22 out of 32 games ended tied or were decided by one goal.... and 27 of 32 were 2 goal games (one of which included an empty netter)

aparch
03-12-2012, 03:37 PM
Yeah, not sure where he's getting the NMU/RIT connection. The closest those two teams have ever been was the Catamount Cup where RIT played Ferris and LSSU, and later when RIT traveled to Wisconsin.

In October, RIT played a fairly insulated schedule against: Niagara, St. Lawrence, Canisius, Union, and Mercyhurst.


Although, RIT performing well *might* help thanks to comparisons for NMU vs FSU/LSSU/Wisco vs RIT.

dggoddard
03-12-2012, 03:44 PM
W T F, Harvard has 11 ties (12 wins)!? :eek:Wisconsin would love to have 11 ties.

"The Badgers are now 0-11-18 in 29 games that went overtime in WCHA action since 2007-08."

NMU8405
03-12-2012, 03:46 PM
Yeah, not sure where he's getting the NMU/RIT connection. The closest those two teams have ever been was the Catamount Cup where RIT played Ferris and LSSU, and later when RIT traveled to Wisconsin.

In October, RIT played a fairly insulated schedule against: Niagara, St. Lawrence, Canisius, Union, and Mercyhurst.


Although, RIT performing well *might* help thanks to comparisons for NMU vs FSU/LSSU/Wisco vs RIT.

NMU currently has a 44.1% chance of making the NCAAs. NMU fans should be hoping for a Union win in the ECAC, Duluth in the WCHA (though a deep run by Tech and SCSU would help) and Miami/Michigan in the CCHA

MichPieGuy
03-12-2012, 04:01 PM
Wisconsin would love to have 11 ties.

"The Badgers are now 0-11-18 in 29 games that went overtime in WCHA action since 2007-08."

That's almost an unfathomable record! Very hard to reason that, because overall I've been impressed with the job Eaves has done as coach at Sconnie. (This weekend's 3-game marathon a good case in point...I "watched" the games on the game tracker in lieu of available TV.) Am hoping the Pio's do well this weekend and that they somehow land in Green Bay, in which case I'll make the swing around the north half of the lake to take in the Regional.

Wol4ine
03-12-2012, 04:18 PM
The 2 teams I see having the biggest influence on NMU are WMU and Cornell. If WMU wins at least one more, you'll need Cornell to lose twice more.

Fighting Sioux 23
03-12-2012, 05:02 PM
Looking at Jim's numbers, the following 11 teams can get a #1 seed if they win their conference tournament: (% if they win conference tourney/overall %)

Boston College (100%/100%)
Michigan (100%/98.7%)
Duluth (100%/41.8%)
Miami (97.4%/38.5%)
Boston University (93.3%/29.9%)
North Dakota (85.2%/10.6%)
Minnesota (76.1%/20.9%)
Union (73.1%/19.2%)
Denver (31.9%/4%)
Maine (30%/7.5%)
Cornell (1.2%/0.3%)

Ferris State still has a 28.7% chance of landing a #1 seed despite not being able to win their tournament.

Numbers
03-12-2012, 05:30 PM
Hey,

The deal with NMU and RIT was a totally made up scenario to illustrate my point. Which mostly is that the TUC business in the PWR is a rather arbitrary thing.

To try again to make my point clear, let's just look at UNH, which right now is right on the very edge of having an RPI of .5000. Now, the deal is, if they end up with a .5000, all the results against them count in the TUC category, but if they end up at .4999, their results don't count. And, those results can make the difference between some team being in, or out. I fail to see the logic in that.

But, that's just the way I think about it.

dggoddard
03-12-2012, 05:38 PM
And, those results can make the difference between some team being in, or out. I fail to see the logic in that.

But, that's just the way I think about it.Once you grasp the basic concept of NCAA D-1/BCS sports is to protect the interests of the "haves" while creating the illusion that you care about the interests of the "have nots," Pairwise, bracketology, Selection Sunday, BCS & the IRS (tax system) makes perfect sense.

UnionHockeyManiac
03-12-2012, 05:40 PM
http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournpartprob.html

Anyone want to comment on the accuracy (or lack thereof) of that?

Fighting Sioux 23
03-12-2012, 05:43 PM
http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournpartprob.html

Anyone want to comment on the accuracy (or lack thereof) of that?

Again, that site looks at "MWP" not the PWR. All you have to do is look at Cornell, ranked #19 with only a 29% chance of making it according to this site. Union is only a 40% chance, and at #15. NMU is considered an 85% chance. It is a bunch of bunk.

Federal League
03-12-2012, 05:59 PM
Can someone clarify on how BC falls to 3rd? Again, normally I'd play around with the predictor but I'm at work and can't join in the fun.

I actually just stumbled onto this scenario that winds up with Miami 1, Duluth 2, BC 3. I'm sure there are others.

•WCHA Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech.
•WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
•WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver.
•WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.
•WCHA Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
•Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University.
•Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Providence.
•Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats Boston College.
•ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Cornell.
•ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
•ECAC Championship game: Union defeats Harvard.
•ECAC Consolation game: Cornell defeats Colgate.
•CCHA Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Western Michigan.
•CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Bowling Green.
•CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan.
•CCHA Consolation game: Western Michigan defeats Bowling Green.
•Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Niagara defeats RIT.
•Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
•Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats Niagara.

Fighting Sioux 23
03-12-2012, 06:04 PM
I actually just stumbled onto this scenario that winds up with Miami 1, Duluth 2, BC 3. I'm sure there are others.

•WCHA Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech.
•WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
•WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver.
•WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.
•WCHA Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
•Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University.
•Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Providence.
•Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats Boston College.
•ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Cornell.
•ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
•ECAC Championship game: Union defeats Harvard.
•ECAC Consolation game: Cornell defeats Colgate.
•CCHA Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Western Michigan.
•CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Bowling Green.
•CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan.
•CCHA Consolation game: Western Michigan defeats Bowling Green.
•Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Niagara defeats RIT.
•Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
•Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats Niagara.

What is interesting, is that BC winds up #2 if they lose to Providence and the rest remains the same. I love the PWR :p:D:D

Patman
03-12-2012, 07:28 PM
Again, that site looks at "MWP" not the PWR. All you have to do is look at Cornell, ranked #19 with only a 29% chance of making it according to this site. Union is only a 40% chance, and at #15. NMU is considered an 85% chance. It is a bunch of bunk.

I had a feeling it was something like that... Doesn't really make much sense, does it.

When I've tried to compute the PWR in the past in R it took a few seconds... I'm sure if I had an R function in C++ it go faster but the PWR takes a bit to calculate which increases program run time.

ajh258
03-12-2012, 07:33 PM
Looking at Jim's numbers, the following 11 teams can get a #1 seed if they win their conference tournament: (% if they win conference tourney/overall %)

Boston College (100%/100%)
Michigan (100%/98.7%)
Duluth (100%/41.8%)
Miami (97.4%/38.5%)
Boston University (93.3%/29.9%)
North Dakota (85.2%/10.6%)
Minnesota (76.1%/20.9%)
Union (73.1%/19.2%)
Denver (31.9%/4%)
Maine (30%/7.5%)
Cornell (1.2%/0.3%)

Ferris State still has a 28.7% chance of landing a #1 seed despite not being able to win their tournament.

WOOOOOOT! Gonna clinch that #1 seed this weekend! :p

FiveHole12
03-14-2012, 05:32 PM
What is interesting, is that BC winds up #2 if they lose to Providence and the rest remains the same. I love the PWR :p:D:D
That's a screw job!
BC should still be #1 based on awesomeness alone. ;) :p

Priceless
03-15-2012, 10:52 AM
Assuming North Dakota and Denver can take care of business today, BC and Michigan win tomorrow that means:
Hockey East - BC, BU, Lowell, Maine
ECAC - Union
CCHA - Michigan, Miami, Ferris
WCHA - Minn-Duluth, Minnesota, Denver, North Dakota

The AHA Champ will be the 16 seed.

The leaves three spots open.
Harvard and Colgate can only get in by winning the ECAC.
Cornell still needs one TUC victory.
Michigan State and Northern Michigan are hoping they don't get it.

Western Michigan is the other team that's still alive. Even a win over TUC Miami on Friday night doesn't get them into the tournament. Nor does a loss on Friday eliminate them. They are probably going to be the last team we know about on Saturday.

If there is a scenario that still gets Merrimack in, I haven't seen it.

Again, this assumes wins that eliminate Michigan Tech and St Cloud today and Bowling Green and Providence tomorrow.

Edit: Merrimack can get in if: Maine defeats BU Friday night, Cornell loses twice, WMU loses twice or loses and ties and Union wins the ECAC.

Patman
03-15-2012, 10:58 AM
Assuming North Dakota and Denver can take care of business today, BC and Michigan win tomorrow that means:
Hockey East - BC, BU, Lowell, Maine
ECAC - Union
CCHA - Michigan, Miami, Ferris
WCHA - Minn-Duluth, Minnesota, Denver, North Dakota

The AHA Champ will be the 16 seed.

The leaves three spots open.
Harvard and Colgate can only get in by winning the ECAC.
Cornell still needs one TUC victory.
Michigan State and Northern Michigan are hoping they don't get it.

Western Michigan is the other team that's still alive. Even a win over TUC Miami on Friday night doesn't get them into the tournament. Nor does a loss on Friday eliminate them. They are probably going to be the last team we know about on Saturday.

If there is a scenario that still gets Merrimack in, I haven't seen it.

Again, this assumes wins that eliminate Michigan Tech and St Cloud today and Bowling Green and Providence tomorrow.

Merrimack... maybe not with your conditions but I have one that puts both NMU and Merrimack in... further down thread.